Election Night Blog May 2015

This page first posted 10 May 2015

Commentary

The night was a story about the usual polls having got it wrong, and the exit poll getting it right. It also became apparent through the night that the Conservatives were actually going to get a majority. Key moments were:

For the record, here is the transcript of the Electoral Calculus election night blog on 7-8 May 2015:


Election Night Blog

15:27 Conservatives gain St Ives with a small majority. This completes the election results: Con 331 seats, Lab 232, Lib 8, SNP 56, UKIP 1, Green 1, Plaid Cymru 3, and Northern Ireland 18 seats. This gives the Conservatives a Commons majority of 12.

14:00 Conservatives comfortably win Warwick and Leamington with a majority of 13%. They now have 330 seats, with only one seat (St Ives) yet to declare.

13:50 Conservatives hold Hexham with a 28% majority.

13:36 Conservatives hold Kenilworth and Southam, as expected.

13:03 Conservatives gain Berwick-upon-Tweed with a 12% majority. On track for 331 seats.

13:01 Labour hold Wansbeck, as expected.

12:59 Labour hold Blyth Valley, as expected.

12:52 Last five expected Conservative seats (with predicted majority %) yet to be declared: Warwick (1%), Berwick (3%), St Ives (5%), Hexham (17%), Kenilworth (33%). Last two expected Labour seats: Blyth Valley (33%), Wansbeck (36%).

12:04 Conservatives on course for 331 seats if they win Warwick, Berwick and St Ives.

11:30 Conservatives gain Wells from the Liberal Democrats.

10:36 Conservatives win Thanet South, beating Nigel Farage (UKIP).

10:07 Still waiting for Thanet South, Warwick & Leamington, Berwick, St Ives and Wells.

09:30 Spotted missing Dumfriesshire seat from Con total. Whoops. Revise ElCalc Con seats to 329.

09:00 Conservative win Derby North, which is a key seat. Revise Con seats to 328.

08:34 John Curtice on BBC says Conservatives will get 329 seats.

08:30 Conservatives on course for 327 seats. As long as they win Thanet South, and Warwick and Leamington.

08:18 Conservatives beat Ed Balls (LAB) to win Morley and Outwood seat. Not only is this a high-profile decapitation, but this is also a key seat to help give the Conservatives a small overall majority.

08:15 Conservatives beat UKIP to win Rochester and Strood, as predicted.

07:41 Conservatives win key seats of Weaver Vale (by 2%) and Plymouth Moor View (by 2%).

07:38 Labour gain key seats of Hove and Dewsbury.

07:36 Caroline Lucas re-elected as Green MP for Brighton Pavilion. Only Green MP as yet.

07:31 Conservatives win key seat of Plymouth Sutton and Devenport.

07:27 SNP win in the Borders, gaining Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk.

07:26 Conservatives win two key seats: Pudsey and Warrington South.

07:21 It is now looking like the Conservatives have a good chance of a small majority. But there are a few key seats still to come.

07:17 Lib Dems hold Leeds North West. Looks like a total of 8 seats for them.

07:16 Labour gain Chester, which was very marginal. Good for Labour.

07:09 BBC now forecast small majority for the Conservatives.

07:05 Labour gain key seat of Wolverhampton South West. Still close.

06:54 Conservatives keep Sherwood, which is another key seat.

06:43 Still close for Conservative overall majority. Maybe Morley and Outwood will be important in more ways than one.

06:20 Conservatives take Portsmouth South, another fairly safe Lib Dem seat.

06:00 Conservatives winning safe Lib Dem seats, such as Yeovil. Increases their chances of a small overall majority.

05:55 BBC forecasts Conservatives on 325 seats.

05:54 Danny Alexander loses Inverness Nairn Babenoch and Strathspey to the SNP, as expected.

05:43 Conservatives gain Colchester, which should have been a Lib Dem seat.

05:40 Looking at the key battleground seats, it looks like the Conservatives may be just short of an overall Commons majority. But could be close.

05:23 Conservatives gain Hazel Grove, which was predicted to be a Lib Dem hold.

05:20 SNP defeat Lib Dem Charles Kennedy in Ross Skye and Lochaber, as predicted.

05:13 Another massive gain for the Conservatives in Wales as they take Gower from Labour. Should have been a safe Labour seat.

05:06 Another crucial bell-weather seat won by the Conservatives: Southampton Itchen. Should have been Labour with a majority of 7%, but the Conservatives won a majority of 5%. This is consistent with an overall Conservative majority.

05:02 LAB gain Wirral West from CON, as predicted. A set-back for the Conservatives.

05:00 CON hold Dumfriesshire Clydesdale and Tweeddale. A Scottish seat for the Tories.

04:59 Conservatives win Telford which is another bell-weather for a majority. But they lost Enfield North which should have been easier to win.

04:52 Nick Clegg holds Sheffield Hallam for the Lib Dems.

04:43 CON takes Bath, which should have been a very safe Lib Dem seat.

04:39 Labour hold Edinburgh South, their first Scottish seat tonight. Tactical voting by CON and LIB supporters was probably involved.

04:38 Conservatives beat Vince Cable (LIB) in Twickenham, against prediction.

04:36 Another bell-weather for CON: Cardiff North. Winning that seat is consistent with an overall Conservative majority.

04:34 Another bell-weather seat goes to the Conservatives: Amber Valley. Conservative majority of 9%, as against a predicted Labour majority of 5%. Consistent with BBC Exit Poll prediction of at least 316 seats for the Conservatives.

04:31 Boris Johnson (CON) wins Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

04:22 CON hold Thurrock, against prediction of LAB victory. Good result for the Conservatives.

04:20 Douglas Carswell (UKIP) wins Clacton, as predicted. Only UKIP seat so far.

04:18 CON gain Eastleigh from LIB.

04:11 Labour gain Old Bermondsey and Southwark from the Lib Dems (Simon Hughes), better than predicted for Labour.

04:07 Labour gain Hornsey and Wood Green from the Lib Dems, as predicted.

03:58 Lib Dems hold Orkney and Shetland as predicted. SNP cannot now win all Scottish seats.

03:53 Labour holds of Ynys Mon, Great Grimsby, Dagenham and Rainham make it less likely that Conservatives get more than a small majority.

03:52 Labour gain Ilford North from CON, against prediction. Another good Labour result in London.

03:48 Labour lose the very safe Scottish seat of Glasgow North East. The SNP got a big majority of 24%.

03:46 Lib Dems lose Kingston and Surbiton, which they were predicted to hold. Lib Dems even weaker than predicted.

03:37 Labour lose another very safe Scottish seat Glasgow South West.

03:28 David Dimbleby on BBC says "even possible" that Conservatives get majority.

03:21 John Curtice on BBC says Conservatives might just possibly get a majority.

03:14 Crucial Conservative victory in Warwickshire North. This is a key seat, which indicates the Conservatives could have an overall majority in the House of Commons. The Conservative majority was 6%, as opposed to predicted Labour majority of 6%.

03:11 Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy loses East Renfrewshire to the SNP.

03:07 Shock result as the Conservatives gain safe Labour seat of Vale of Clwyd.

03:02 Labour gain Ealing Central and Acton by 0.5% which was predicted to be Conservative. Good result for Labour in London.

02:55 Update on Darlington. Labour majority of 8%, noticeably less than predicted majority of 15%. Less good for Labour in the north of England.

02:51 SNP take two very safe Labour seats: Rutherglen and Hamilton West, and Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath. Were two of the strongest Labour seats, which Labour were predicted to keep.

02:50 SNP narrowly win Dunbartonshire East from the Lib Dems.

02:45 Conservatives hold Swindon South with a large majority of 12%, much higher than predicted 2%.

02:30 Labour lose Glenrothes, one of their Fife strongholds, to the SNP. This was one of the few Scottish seats that Labour was predicted to win.

02:25 General trend is that Labour and the Liberal Democrats are doing worse than expected, and the Conservatives and SNP are doing better. BBC Exit poll looking more credible.

02:25 Douglas Alexander (LAB) loses Paisley and Renfrewshire South to the SNP, with a majority of 12% as opposed to predicted 2%.

02:15 Labour lose Kilmarnock and Loudon to the SNP, who have a colossal majority of 26% (as opposed to predicted 14%).

02:10 Labour hold Oxford East with 30% majority, more than predicted 24%. First bit of good news for Labour

01:52 Conservatives hold Nuneaton with 11% majority, as opposed to predicted Labour gain.

01:50 Labour hold Clywd South with 7% majority, also less than predicted 15%.

01:30 Labour hold Wrexham with a majority of 5%, much less than the predicted 19%.

01:25 Another good London result for the Conservatives in Battersea. Actual majority of 15% is again larger than the predicted 8%.

01:15 Also in Tooting. Although a Labour hold, their majority was only 5% compared with predicted 12%.

01:10 Another good result for the Conservatives in Putney. Majority was 24% compared with predicted 19%.

00:48 Startling result from Swindon North. Was predicted to be a CON hold with 8% majority, but actual majority a thumping 23%. Good news for the Conservatives if repeated.

00:30 Still only three safe Labour results from Sunderland, so there is not enough to judge whether the exit poll (Con 316, Lab 239, SNP 58, Lib 10) is going be ok.

22:15 The BBC exit poll translates approximately into these percentage support figures: Con 36.5%, Lab 29.8%, Lib 9.0%, and in Scotland SNP 53%. That would be a 7% Conservative lead and well ahead of national opinion polling.

21:50 The last pre-poll prediction has been made: Con 280, Lab 274, Lib 21, SNP 52, UKIP 1, Green 1. This is based on public opinion polls and spread betting levels from yesterday. We await publication of exit polls after the end of voting at 10pm.


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