| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 29.4% | 15 | 22.7% | 0 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 29 | 22.0% | 0 | 17 | -17 | 12 |
| LIB | 6.4% | 0 | 6.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 18.9% | 2 | 30.2% | 19 | 0 | +19 | 21 |
| Green | 6.3% | 0 | 10.3% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| Other | 3.7% | 1 | 8.5% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Northamptonshire South (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Nottingham East (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 325 | Nottingham East | Nadia Whittome | 69,395 | 52.5 | 8.4 | 33.4 | 4.4 | 18.5 | 27.4 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 63 | 288 | Nottingham North and Kimberley | Alex Norris | 73,768 | 47.5 | 6.5 | 40.7 | 1.6 | 32.1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 65 | 286 | Gedling | Michael Payne | 77,006 | 63.3 | 6.0 | 44.2 | 1.4 | 35.7 | 3.1 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 66 | 285 | Rushcliffe | James William Naish | 79,160 | 72.9 | 26.4 | 30.6 | 6.2 | 22.2 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 71 | 280 | Leicester West | Liz Kendall | 74,102 | 47.8 | 5.6 | 42.5 | 1.5 | 34.8 | 4.7 | 11.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 72 | 278 | Leicester South | Shockat Adam | 70,867 | 59.0 | 7.9 | 23.9 | 4.6 | 16.6 | 26.8 | 20.2 | 0.0 | MIN | Green |
| 85 | 266 | Nottingham South | Lilian Greenwood | 64,255 | 51.2 | 11.9 | 29.7 | 4.8 | 23.8 | 20.6 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 88 | 263 | High Peak | Jonathan Brian Pearce | 74,385 | 66.2 | 20.7 | 30.1 | 5.6 | 24.6 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 104 | 247 | Derby North | Catherine Atkinson | 71,900 | 56.9 | 7.4 | 40.8 | 1.7 | 37.1 | 4.0 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 112 | 239 | Chesterfield | Toby Perkins | 71,654 | 58.0 | 5.2 | 40.9 | 1.5 | 37.9 | 2.8 | 11.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 127 | 224 | Loughborough | Jeevun Sandher | 68,996 | 61.2 | 21.6 | 25.4 | 6.6 | 23.9 | 14.1 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 135 | 216 | Derby South | Baggy Shanker | 72,952 | 51.3 | 4.3 | 39.7 | 1.1 | 39.3 | 4.4 | 11.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 136 | 215 | Lincoln | Hamish Falconer | 72,313 | 58.3 | 6.1 | 39.8 | 1.5 | 39.4 | 3.1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 151 | 200 | Broxtowe | Juliet Campbell | 71,923 | 66.5 | 7.0 | 40.6 | 1.7 | 41.6 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 170 | 181 | Northampton North | Lucy Rigby | 75,575 | 55.3 | 12.3 | 32.0 | 4.2 | 35.2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 190 | 161 | Erewash | Adam Thompson | 71,497 | 60.2 | 9.7 | 34.4 | 2.5 | 38.9 | 4.5 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 197 | 154 | Derbyshire Mid | Jonathan Peter Tom Davies | 69,281 | 68.6 | 26.6 | 24.7 | 5.7 | 29.8 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 201 | 150 | Derbyshire South | Samantha Niblett | 73,714 | 62.0 | 21.2 | 23.9 | 5.9 | 29.4 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 210 | 141 | Bolsover | Natalie Fleet | 77,207 | 55.0 | 5.8 | 36.0 | 1.1 | 42.2 | 2.8 | 12.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 212 | 139 | Bassetlaw | Jo White | 78,173 | 57.4 | 15.1 | 26.8 | 4.3 | 33.2 | 7.9 | 12.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 215 | 136 | Kettering | Rosie Wrighting | 79,390 | 63.3 | 21.0 | 24.4 | 5.2 | 31.1 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 219 | 132 | Derbyshire Dales | John Michael Whitby | 73,317 | 69.9 | 26.4 | 23.3 | 7.8 | 30.3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 222 | 129 | Derbyshire North East | Louise Elizabeth Jones | 73,139 | 62.7 | 24.7 | 23.7 | 5.1 | 30.9 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 225 | 126 | Northampton South | Mike Reader | 70,393 | 62.4 | 24.8 | 21.1 | 8.5 | 28.5 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 227 | 124 | Corby and East Northamptonshire | Lee Barron | 78,787 | 62.9 | 24.7 | 22.4 | 7.4 | 29.9 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 247 | 103 | Leicester East | Shivani Raja | 76,560 | 61.0 | 28.3 | 13.4 | 8.9 | 22.5 | 19.5 | 7.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 254 | 96 | Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | Neil O'Brien | 77,407 | 65.1 | 34.7 | 16.4 | 6.7 | 26.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 255 | 96 | Sherwood Forest | Michelle Welsh | 78,894 | 61.7 | 20.9 | 23.7 | 5.2 | 33.8 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 263 | 88 | Amber Valley | Linsey Farnsworth | 71,546 | 59.4 | 9.8 | 30.7 | 2.3 | 41.4 | 4.3 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 265 | 86 | Mansfield | Steve Yemm | 73,817 | 55.7 | 19.3 | 22.1 | 4.3 | 32.9 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 268 | 83 | Leicestershire North West | Amanda Hack | 77,757 | 62.5 | 23.8 | 21.5 | 4.6 | 32.5 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 274 | 77 | Wellingborough and Rushden | Gen Kitchen | 77,559 | 56.7 | 23.4 | 20.5 | 6.5 | 32.3 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 302 | 48 | Leicestershire Mid | Peter Bedford | 75,933 | 63.3 | 37.9 | 14.1 | 3.8 | 28.5 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 324 | 26 | Newark | Robert Jenrick | 80,028 | 66.8 | 41.5 | 12.5 | 3.2 | 31.5 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 334 | 16 | Northamptonshire South | Sarah Bool | 78,233 | 68.6 | 44.1 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 30.8 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 334 | 16 | Daventry | Stuart Andrew | 80,879 | 65.6 | 42.9 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 30.4 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 335 | 15 | Rutland and Stamford | Alicia Kearns | 71,711 | 67.7 | 45.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 30.5 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 338 | 12 | Melton and Syston | Edward Argar | 74,316 | 61.9 | 39.8 | 10.6 | 2.6 | 33.6 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 339 | 11 | Leicestershire South | Alberto Costa | 78,543 | 65.4 | 42.8 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 32.1 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 11 | Ashfield | Lee Anderson | 68,929 | 57.9 | 7.8 | 23.1 | 3.0 | 46.8 | 5.3 | 14.0 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
| 341 | 9 | Grantham and Bourne | Gareth Davies | 73,280 | 62.9 | 40.0 | 9.2 | 2.5 | 36.3 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 341 | 9 | Sleaford and North Hykeham | Caroline Johnson | 75,807 | 64.1 | 40.1 | 9.2 | 2.6 | 36.4 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 341 | 9 | Gainsborough | Sir Edward Leigh | 75,836 | 61.6 | 39.8 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 35.9 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 344 | 6 | Hinckley and Bosworth | Luke Evans | 76,431 | 62.5 | 40.6 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 34.2 | 4.2 | 8.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 346 | 5 | Louth and Horncastle | Victoria Atkins | 76,882 | 60.5 | 37.9 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 39.9 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 347 | 4 | South Holland and The Deepings | John Hayes | 78,473 | 58.5 | 37.9 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 41.5 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 349 | 2 | Boston and Skegness | Richard Tice | 75,811 | 53.4 | 31.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 44.2 | 2.4 | 13.8 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.