| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 29.4% | 15 | 19.6% | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 29 | 21.3% | 0 | 22 | -22 | 7 |
| LIB | 6.4% | 0 | 10.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 18.9% | 2 | 36.0% | 34 | 0 | +34 | 36 |
| Green | 6.3% | 0 | 8.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 3.7% | 1 | 4.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bassetlaw (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to High Peak (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 422 | Nottingham East | Nadia Whittome | 69,395 | 52.5 | 2.3 | 48.8 | 2.7 | 32.6 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 92 | 363 | Rushcliffe | James William Naish | 79,160 | 72.9 | 20.5 | 32.9 | 10.6 | 24.2 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 119 | 336 | Nottingham South | Lilian Greenwood | 64,255 | 51.2 | 4.2 | 44.2 | 2.6 | 39.2 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 120 | 335 | Gedling | Michael Payne | 77,006 | 63.3 | 5.2 | 46.5 | 2.5 | 41.7 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 123 | 332 | High Peak | Jonathan Brian Pearce | 74,385 | 66.2 | 6.8 | 45.8 | 2.2 | 41.5 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 144 | 311 | Broxtowe | Juliet Campbell | 71,923 | 66.5 | 5.3 | 43.7 | 2.9 | 42.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 153 | 302 | Derby North | Catherine Atkinson | 71,900 | 56.9 | 5.1 | 44.0 | 2.4 | 43.9 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 158 | 297 | Loughborough | Jeevun Sandher | 68,996 | 61.2 | 6.7 | 43.2 | 2.7 | 43.5 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 167 | 288 | Northampton North | Lucy Rigby | 75,575 | 55.3 | 4.8 | 41.6 | 2.5 | 43.3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 169 | 286 | Lincoln | Hamish Falconer | 72,313 | 58.3 | 5.0 | 42.5 | 2.4 | 44.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 176 | 279 | Leicester West | Liz Kendall | 74,102 | 47.8 | 4.6 | 41.8 | 2.5 | 44.4 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 191 | 264 | Chesterfield | Toby Perkins | 71,654 | 58.0 | 5.2 | 41.6 | 2.3 | 45.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 198 | 257 | Derbyshire Dales | John Michael Whitby | 73,317 | 69.9 | 25.9 | 22.9 | 12.5 | 28.1 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 214 | 240 | Leicester South | Shockat Adam | 70,867 | 59.0 | 6.2 | 18.1 | 9.9 | 24.9 | 13.6 | 27.4 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 218 | 237 | Derbyshire Mid | Jonathan Peter Tom Davies | 69,281 | 68.6 | 24.5 | 23.4 | 9.6 | 30.4 | 10.0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 220 | 235 | Corby and East Northamptonshire | Lee Barron | 78,787 | 62.9 | 22.0 | 25.5 | 9.0 | 32.7 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 227 | 228 | Nottingham North and Kimberley | Alex Norris | 73,768 | 47.5 | 4.6 | 40.3 | 2.1 | 48.0 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 233 | 222 | Northampton South | Mike Reader | 70,393 | 62.4 | 21.5 | 23.7 | 11.0 | 32.2 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 259 | 196 | Derbyshire North East | Louise Elizabeth Jones | 73,139 | 62.7 | 24.7 | 22.9 | 8.8 | 33.8 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 262 | 192 | Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | Neil O'Brien | 77,407 | 65.1 | 32.8 | 17.2 | 10.7 | 28.2 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 1.5 | CON | CON |
| 287 | 168 | Kettering | Rosie Wrighting | 79,390 | 63.3 | 19.2 | 20.8 | 8.4 | 34.0 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 290 | 165 | Derby South | Baggy Shanker | 72,952 | 51.3 | 3.3 | 33.3 | 2.2 | 46.7 | 2.5 | 11.4 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 292 | 163 | Erewash | Adam Thompson | 71,497 | 60.2 | 18.6 | 23.3 | 9.3 | 37.0 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 293 | 162 | Derbyshire South | Samantha Niblett | 73,714 | 62.0 | 20.2 | 22.4 | 9.8 | 36.2 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 303 | 152 | Bolsover | Natalie Fleet | 77,207 | 55.0 | 5.1 | 37.2 | 1.8 | 51.8 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 326 | 129 | Bassetlaw | Jo White | 78,173 | 57.4 | 19.8 | 23.2 | 8.2 | 39.4 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 331 | 124 | Leicestershire North West | Amanda Hack | 77,757 | 62.5 | 22.1 | 20.2 | 8.6 | 36.6 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 340 | 115 | Wellingborough and Rushden | Gen Kitchen | 77,559 | 56.7 | 18.6 | 22.0 | 9.0 | 39.2 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 349 | 106 | Sherwood Forest | Michelle Welsh | 78,894 | 61.7 | 18.3 | 21.9 | 8.9 | 39.8 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 349 | 105 | Northamptonshire South | Sarah Bool | 78,233 | 68.6 | 33.2 | 14.3 | 9.7 | 32.4 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 3.5 | CON | CON |
| 353 | 102 | Leicestershire Mid | Peter Bedford | 75,933 | 63.3 | 27.5 | 17.3 | 9.4 | 35.7 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 1.4 | CON | Reform |
| 358 | 97 | Newark | Robert Jenrick | 80,028 | 66.8 | 33.9 | 15.1 | 7.7 | 34.0 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 3.1 | CON | Reform |
| 364 | 91 | Leicester East | Shivani Raja | 76,560 | 61.0 | 17.1 | 11.7 | 14.8 | 31.3 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 8.4 | CON | Reform |
| 370 | 85 | Daventry | Stuart Andrew | 80,879 | 65.6 | 28.5 | 15.0 | 12.6 | 35.5 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 1.6 | CON | Reform |
| 402 | 53 | Mansfield | Steve Yemm | 73,817 | 55.7 | 18.3 | 20.0 | 7.1 | 44.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 406 | 49 | Amber Valley | Linsey Farnsworth | 71,546 | 59.4 | 16.3 | 20.4 | 8.5 | 44.9 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 408 | 46 | Rutland and Stamford | Alicia Kearns | 71,711 | 67.7 | 45.2 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 32.9 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 1.9 | CON | CON |
| 410 | 45 | Hinckley and Bosworth | Luke Evans | 76,431 | 62.5 | 24.3 | 10.7 | 21.7 | 35.7 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 1.8 | CON | Reform |
| 424 | 31 | Leicestershire South | Alberto Costa | 78,543 | 65.4 | 35.9 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 37.4 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 1.4 | CON | Reform |
| 430 | 25 | Gainsborough | Sir Edward Leigh | 75,836 | 61.6 | 31.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 40.7 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 1.9 | CON | Reform |
| 432 | 23 | Sleaford and North Hykeham | Caroline Johnson | 75,807 | 64.1 | 32.3 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 40.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 6.1 | CON | Reform |
| 434 | 21 | Melton and Syston | Edward Argar | 74,316 | 61.9 | 38.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 39.2 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 3.3 | CON | Reform |
| 435 | 20 | Grantham and Bourne | Gareth Davies | 73,280 | 62.9 | 34.5 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 39.9 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 6.4 | CON | Reform |
| 448 | 7 | Ashfield | Lee Anderson | 68,929 | 57.9 | 6.2 | 16.1 | 4.6 | 55.1 | 4.9 | 13.1 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
| 449 | 6 | South Holland and The Deepings | John Hayes | 78,473 | 58.5 | 32.6 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 45.2 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 9.2 | CON | Reform |
| 450 | 5 | Louth and Horncastle | Victoria Atkins | 76,882 | 60.5 | 33.8 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 46.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 4.3 | CON | Reform |
| 453 | 2 | Boston and Skegness | Richard Tice | 75,811 | 53.4 | 27.1 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 58.5 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 3.2 | Reform | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.