East Midlands: Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 29.4%15 22.7%02-213
LAB 35.3%29 22.0%017-1712
LIB 6.4%0 6.3%00+00
Reform 18.9%2 30.2%190+1921
Green 6.3%0 10.3%10+11
Other 3.7%1 8.5%01-10

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Northamptonshire South (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Nottingham East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
26325Nottingham East Nadia Whittome69,39552.58.433.44.418.527.47.80.0LABLAB
63288Nottingham North and Kimberley Alex Norris73,76847.56.540.71.632.17.611.40.0LABLAB
65286Gedling Michael Payne77,00663.36.044.21.435.73.19.60.0LABLAB
66285Rushcliffe James William Naish79,16072.926.430.66.222.210.04.60.0LABLAB
71280Leicester West Liz Kendall74,10247.85.642.51.534.84.711.10.0LABLAB
72278Leicester South Shockat Adam70,86759.07.923.94.616.626.820.20.0MINGreen
85266Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood64,25551.211.929.74.823.820.69.30.0LABLAB
88263High Peak Jonathan Brian Pearce74,38566.220.730.15.624.611.27.80.0LABLAB
104247Derby North Catherine Atkinson71,90056.97.440.81.737.14.09.10.0LABLAB
112239Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,65458.05.240.91.537.92.811.70.0LABLAB
127224Loughborough Jeevun Sandher68,99661.221.625.46.623.914.18.40.0LABLAB
135216Derby South Baggy Shanker72,95251.34.339.71.139.34.411.10.0LABLAB
136215Lincoln Hamish Falconer72,31358.36.139.81.539.43.110.00.0LABLAB
151200Broxtowe Juliet Campbell71,92366.57.040.61.741.62.56.70.0LABReform
170181Northampton North Lucy Rigby75,57555.312.332.04.235.27.68.60.0LABReform
190161Erewash Adam Thompson71,49760.29.734.42.538.94.510.00.0LABReform
197154Derbyshire Mid Jonathan Peter Tom Davies69,28168.626.624.75.729.87.75.50.0LABReform
201150Derbyshire South Samantha Niblett73,71462.021.223.95.929.410.09.60.0LABReform
210141Bolsover Natalie Fleet77,20755.05.836.01.142.22.812.20.0LABReform
212139Bassetlaw Jo White78,17357.415.126.84.333.27.912.80.0LABReform
215136Kettering Rosie Wrighting79,39063.321.024.45.231.112.46.00.0LABReform
219132Derbyshire Dales John Michael Whitby73,31769.926.423.37.830.36.26.10.0LABReform
222129Derbyshire North East Louise Elizabeth Jones73,13962.724.723.75.130.97.28.40.0LABReform
225126Northampton South Mike Reader70,39362.424.821.18.528.510.76.50.0LABReform
227124Corby and East Northamptonshire Lee Barron78,78762.924.722.47.429.99.36.40.0LABReform
247103Leicester East Shivani Raja76,56061.028.313.48.922.519.57.40.0CONCON
25496Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Neil O'Brien77,40765.134.716.46.726.29.86.30.0CONCON
25596Sherwood Forest Michelle Welsh78,89461.720.923.75.233.87.88.50.0LABReform
26388Amber Valley Linsey Farnsworth71,54659.49.830.72.341.44.311.60.0LABReform
26586Mansfield Steve Yemm73,81755.719.322.14.332.99.012.50.0LABReform
26883Leicestershire North West Amanda Hack77,75762.523.821.54.632.58.39.40.0LABReform
27477Wellingborough and Rushden Gen Kitchen77,55956.723.420.56.532.310.17.30.0LABReform
30248Leicestershire Mid Peter Bedford75,93363.337.914.13.828.58.77.00.0CONCON
32426Newark Robert Jenrick80,02866.841.512.53.231.55.26.10.0CONCON
33416Northamptonshire South Sarah Bool78,23368.644.19.44.130.86.25.40.0CONCON
33416Daventry Stuart Andrew80,87965.642.99.05.430.45.86.50.0CONCON
33515Rutland and Stamford Alicia Kearns71,71167.745.98.34.430.54.96.10.0CONCON
33812Melton and Syston Edward Argar74,31661.939.810.62.633.66.57.00.0CONCON
33911Leicestershire South Alberto Costa78,54365.442.88.34.932.15.36.60.0CONCON
34011Ashfield Lee Anderson68,92957.97.823.13.046.85.314.00.0ReformReform
3419Grantham and Bourne Gareth Davies73,28062.940.09.22.536.35.16.90.0CONCON
3419Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson75,80764.140.19.22.636.45.16.70.0CONCON
3419Gainsborough Sir Edward Leigh75,83661.639.88.83.935.94.07.60.0CONCON
3446Hinckley and Bosworth Luke Evans76,43162.540.66.06.834.24.28.30.0CONCON
3465Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins76,88260.537.97.72.439.94.37.70.0CONReform
3474South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes78,47358.537.96.52.341.54.27.60.0CONReform
3492Boston and Skegness Richard Tice75,81153.431.16.32.244.22.413.80.0ReformReform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.