East Midlands: Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 29.4%15 18.3%013-132
LAB 35.3%29 17.8%027-272
LIB 6.4%0 10.3%00+00
Reform 18.9%2 37.3%400+4042
Green 6.3%0 11.2%00+00
Other 3.7%1 5.0%00+01

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Leicestershire Mid (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Leicester South (prediction: MIN).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
57376Nottingham East Nadia Whittome69,39552.59.628.08.318.823.212.10.0LABLAB
96337Gedling Michael Payne77,00663.35.143.22.640.83.15.20.0LABLAB
99333Leicester South Shockat Adam70,86759.08.317.64.415.720.533.50.0MINMIN
116317Rushcliffe James William Naish79,16072.921.323.211.624.613.06.30.0LABReform
117316Derby North Catherine Atkinson71,90056.95.041.02.442.43.75.60.0LABReform
122311Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood64,25551.210.627.76.929.415.69.70.0LABReform
126307Broxtowe Juliet Campbell71,92366.511.032.27.234.28.86.60.0LABReform
129304Leicester West Liz Kendall74,10247.87.533.15.935.310.87.30.0LABReform
135298Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,65458.04.041.22.744.23.04.90.0LABReform
140293Lincoln Hamish Falconer72,31358.34.939.62.644.03.45.60.0LABReform
169264High Peak Jonathan Brian Pearce74,38566.218.823.49.131.810.95.90.0LABReform
181252Northampton North Lucy Rigby75,57555.34.637.82.847.33.24.40.0LABReform
193240Nottingham North and Kimberley Alex Norris73,76847.59.428.24.639.210.97.60.0LABReform
197236Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Neil O'Brien77,40765.123.018.812.729.913.02.70.0CONReform
205228Loughborough Jeevun Sandher68,99661.218.320.89.432.912.36.40.0LABReform
215218Derbyshire Dales John Michael Whitby73,31769.921.918.613.332.49.54.30.0LABReform
219214Leicester East Shivani Raja76,56061.021.510.513.324.422.28.10.0CONReform
247186Derby South Baggy Shanker72,95251.312.718.08.533.817.89.20.0LABReform
271162Erewash Adam Thompson71,49760.210.726.96.844.36.84.40.0LABReform
272161Derbyshire Mid Jonathan Peter Tom Davies69,28168.621.317.410.634.911.34.60.0LABReform
283150Bolsover Natalie Fleet77,20755.07.329.94.048.25.74.80.0LABReform
307126Derbyshire South Samantha Niblett73,71462.018.518.59.239.49.45.00.0LABReform
317116Derbyshire North East Louise Elizabeth Jones73,13962.719.218.49.439.98.54.50.0LABReform
323110Sherwood Forest Michelle Welsh78,89461.718.917.38.439.410.25.80.0LABReform
329104Leicestershire Mid Peter Bedford75,93363.324.715.38.937.910.62.60.0CONReform
33598Northampton South Mike Reader70,39362.418.117.110.740.29.94.10.0LABReform
33994Leicestershire North West Amanda Hack77,75762.518.817.49.040.79.54.60.0LABReform
34290Newark Robert Jenrick80,02866.835.711.97.035.57.02.80.0CONCON
34885Amber Valley Linsey Farnsworth71,54659.411.323.46.647.86.94.00.0LABReform
35182Corby and East Northamptonshire Lee Barron78,78762.918.817.09.741.59.14.00.0LABReform
36370Bassetlaw Jo White78,17357.415.418.88.244.58.34.80.0LABReform
36667Kettering Rosie Wrighting79,39063.317.314.17.840.015.95.00.0LABReform
36964Hinckley and Bosworth Luke Evans76,43162.520.711.421.137.67.41.80.0CONReform
37756Leicestershire South Alberto Costa78,54365.428.511.112.638.37.52.00.0CONReform
37755Rutland and Stamford Alicia Kearns71,71167.741.87.77.135.06.12.30.0CONCON
38251Daventry Stuart Andrew80,87965.622.712.613.340.38.03.20.0CONReform
38548Northamptonshire South Sarah Bool78,23368.632.710.59.338.47.12.10.0CONReform
39043Gainsborough Sir Edward Leigh75,83661.629.811.79.640.36.52.10.0CONReform
39538Wellingborough and Rushden Gen Kitchen77,55956.716.815.98.545.69.43.90.0LABReform
39934Mansfield Steve Yemm73,81755.716.116.87.147.18.14.70.0LABReform
41320Grantham and Bourne Gareth Davies73,28062.936.77.64.841.36.72.90.0CONReform
41716Melton and Syston Edward Argar74,31661.933.88.05.342.28.02.70.0CONReform
42112Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson75,80764.135.97.75.042.46.42.70.0CONReform
4267Ashfield Lee Anderson68,92957.99.612.56.652.012.66.70.0ReformReform
4294Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins76,88260.534.16.34.547.25.72.20.0CONReform
4303South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes78,47358.534.25.34.448.25.62.20.0CONReform
4312Boston and Skegness Richard Tice75,81153.427.14.43.357.14.73.40.0ReformReform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.