East Midlands: Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 29.4%15 23.4%00+015
LAB 35.3%29 25.8%113-1217
LIB 6.4%0 5.3%00+00
Reform 18.9%2 27.5%130+1315
Green 6.3%0 9.5%00+00
Other 3.7%1 8.5%01-10

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Daventry (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Leicester South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
24348Nottingham East Nadia Whittome69,39552.59.039.13.514.426.17.80.0LABLAB
44328Leicester South Shockat Adam70,86759.08.532.23.410.724.920.20.0MINLAB
88284Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood64,25551.212.634.53.920.319.59.30.0LABLAB
91281Rushcliffe James William Naish79,16072.927.133.85.220.09.34.60.0LABLAB
117255Gedling Michael Payne77,00663.311.141.02.729.46.19.70.0LABLAB
124248Nottingham North and Kimberley Alex Norris73,76847.59.638.42.127.411.011.50.0LABLAB
131241Derby South Baggy Shanker72,95251.34.645.00.934.54.011.10.0LABLAB
139232Leicester East Shivani Raja76,56061.029.024.87.014.817.07.40.0CONCON
141231High Peak Jonathan Brian Pearce74,38566.221.432.74.822.810.67.80.0LABLAB
142230Leicester West Liz Kendall74,10247.810.038.62.728.78.811.10.0LABLAB
169203Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,65458.05.443.31.335.82.511.70.0LABLAB
175197Derby North Catherine Atkinson71,90056.914.236.03.329.48.09.10.0LABLAB
180192Loughborough Jeevun Sandher68,99661.222.328.15.622.113.58.40.0LABLAB
190182Lincoln Hamish Falconer72,31358.36.442.31.337.12.910.00.0LABLAB
202170Northampton North Lucy Rigby75,57555.310.038.82.534.85.28.70.0LABLAB
209163Broxtowe Juliet Campbell71,92366.58.941.42.038.13.06.70.0LABLAB
239133Derbyshire South Samantha Niblett73,71462.021.827.54.927.09.29.70.0LABLAB
243129Derbyshire Mid Jonathan Peter Tom Davies69,28168.627.327.84.827.67.05.50.0LABLAB
245127Erewash Adam Thompson71,49760.26.939.71.239.72.510.00.0LABReform
258113Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Neil O'Brien77,40765.131.022.16.823.310.46.30.0CONCON
260112Derbyshire Dales John Michael Whitby73,31769.927.126.66.728.05.56.10.0LABReform
261111Kettering Rosie Wrighting79,39063.320.228.64.030.310.96.00.0LABReform
265107Bassetlaw Jo White78,17357.411.333.32.435.35.012.80.0LABReform
266106Derbyshire North East Louise Elizabeth Jones73,13962.725.426.64.328.66.58.50.0LABReform
268104Bolsover Natalie Fleet77,20755.06.037.80.940.42.612.20.0LABReform
269103Northampton South Mike Reader70,39362.425.524.07.326.710.16.50.0LABReform
27399Corby and East Northamptonshire Lee Barron78,78762.925.425.16.428.08.76.50.0LABReform
27497Leicestershire Mid Peter Bedford75,93363.330.522.14.725.110.67.00.0CONCON
27893Newark Robert Jenrick80,02866.831.023.85.027.07.16.10.0CONCON
28785Leicestershire North West Amanda Hack77,75762.524.525.53.829.57.49.40.0LABReform
29081Northamptonshire South Sarah Bool78,23368.631.621.17.325.79.05.40.0CONCON
29577Sherwood Forest Michelle Welsh78,89461.721.526.64.431.77.28.60.0LABReform
29874Mansfield Steve Yemm73,81755.719.725.43.530.88.112.50.0LABReform
31359Amber Valley Linsey Farnsworth71,54659.46.336.10.942.92.111.60.0LABReform
31953Wellingborough and Rushden Gen Kitchen77,55956.724.123.15.530.59.57.30.0LABReform
33635Daventry Stuart Andrew80,87965.633.717.18.426.57.76.50.0CONCON
34823Melton and Syston Edward Argar74,31661.933.518.33.429.88.07.00.0CONCON
35517Ashfield Lee Anderson68,92957.93.933.70.846.01.614.10.0ReformReform
3647Rutland and Stamford Alicia Kearns71,71167.742.613.05.327.65.56.10.0CONCON
3683Grantham and Bourne Gareth Davies73,28062.937.515.22.732.25.46.90.0CONCON
3683Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson75,80764.138.114.72.832.45.26.80.0CONCON
3683Leicestershire South Alberto Costa78,54365.443.110.74.529.95.16.60.0CONCON
3683Gainsborough Sir Edward Leigh75,83661.641.010.53.433.93.67.60.0CONCON
3683Hinckley and Bosworth Luke Evans76,43162.541.97.96.132.13.78.30.0CONCON
3683Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins76,88260.539.510.02.037.13.87.70.0CONCON
3683South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes78,47358.540.09.81.837.43.47.60.0CONCON
3702Boston and Skegness Richard Tice75,81153.432.58.11.841.81.913.80.0ReformReform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.