| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 29.4% | 15 | 21.6% | 1 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 29 | 20.1% | 0 | 23 | -23 | 6 |
| LIB | 6.4% | 0 | 8.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 18.9% | 2 | 31.2% | 25 | 0 | +25 | 27 |
| Green | 6.3% | 0 | 13.8% | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| Other | 3.7% | 1 | 4.4% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Boston and Skegness (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Nottingham East (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 304 | Nottingham East | Nadia Whittome | 69,395 | 52.5 | 8.1 | 27.9 | 5.2 | 17.7 | 33.4 | 6.4 | 1.3 | LAB | Green |
| 32 | 297 | Rushcliffe | James William Naish | 79,160 | 72.9 | 25.5 | 28.2 | 8.0 | 20.4 | 15.2 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 45 | 283 | Leicester South | Shockat Adam | 70,867 | 59.0 | 8.6 | 20.6 | 5.5 | 15.0 | 33.8 | 0.0 | 16.5 | MIN | Green |
| 46 | 283 | Gedling | Michael Payne | 77,006 | 63.3 | 12.3 | 37.6 | 4.7 | 32.0 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 55 | 274 | Northampton North | Lucy Rigby | 75,575 | 55.3 | 10.8 | 35.5 | 4.6 | 31.8 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 58 | 271 | Chesterfield | Toby Perkins | 71,654 | 58.0 | 6.1 | 42.8 | 2.2 | 39.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 65 | 264 | Derby North | Catherine Atkinson | 71,900 | 56.9 | 18.0 | 27.3 | 7.7 | 24.8 | 18.4 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 68 | 260 | Leicester East | Shivani Raja | 76,560 | 61.0 | 29.4 | 15.5 | 11.1 | 13.4 | 16.1 | 9.4 | 5.2 | CON | CON |
| 74 | 254 | Leicester West | Liz Kendall | 74,102 | 47.8 | 15.7 | 24.4 | 7.9 | 23.3 | 24.4 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | Green |
| 77 | 252 | Lincoln | Hamish Falconer | 72,313 | 58.3 | 14.4 | 29.9 | 6.5 | 29.0 | 14.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 88 | 241 | Nottingham South | Lilian Greenwood | 64,255 | 51.2 | 11.9 | 24.6 | 6.4 | 25.3 | 24.4 | 6.1 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 89 | 240 | High Peak | Jonathan Brian Pearce | 74,385 | 66.2 | 17.7 | 28.5 | 7.6 | 29.5 | 14.6 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 92 | 237 | Broxtowe | Juliet Campbell | 71,923 | 66.5 | 18.4 | 24.8 | 10.2 | 26.4 | 16.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 110 | 219 | Loughborough | Jeevun Sandher | 68,996 | 61.2 | 20.2 | 22.6 | 9.8 | 25.7 | 19.2 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 123 | 206 | Derbyshire Mid | Jonathan Peter Tom Davies | 69,281 | 68.6 | 25.6 | 23.0 | 7.4 | 27.3 | 12.2 | 2.1 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 140 | 189 | Erewash | Adam Thompson | 71,497 | 60.2 | 18.9 | 24.2 | 8.2 | 30.6 | 13.9 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 143 | 186 | Northampton South | Mike Reader | 70,393 | 62.4 | 19.7 | 22.0 | 11.2 | 28.8 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 151 | 178 | Nottingham North and Kimberley | Alex Norris | 73,768 | 47.5 | 13.2 | 25.6 | 5.5 | 33.0 | 18.5 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 154 | 175 | Corby and East Northamptonshire | Lee Barron | 78,787 | 62.9 | 19.7 | 22.8 | 10.0 | 30.5 | 14.8 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 161 | 167 | Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | Neil O'Brien | 77,407 | 65.1 | 33.0 | 16.4 | 10.6 | 24.7 | 12.8 | 0.0 | 2.5 | CON | CON |
| 161 | 167 | Derbyshire Dales | John Michael Whitby | 73,317 | 69.9 | 31.0 | 19.2 | 9.1 | 27.6 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | CON |
| 180 | 149 | Derby South | Baggy Shanker | 72,952 | 51.3 | 11.6 | 20.5 | 5.9 | 30.6 | 18.1 | 12.9 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 185 | 144 | Derbyshire South | Samantha Niblett | 73,714 | 62.0 | 20.8 | 21.4 | 9.3 | 32.0 | 13.1 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 192 | 137 | Kettering | Rosie Wrighting | 79,390 | 63.3 | 16.4 | 19.1 | 8.0 | 30.6 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 193 | 136 | Derbyshire North East | Louise Elizabeth Jones | 73,139 | 62.7 | 26.2 | 21.6 | 6.6 | 33.2 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 212 | 117 | Wellingborough and Rushden | Gen Kitchen | 77,559 | 56.7 | 18.7 | 20.9 | 9.1 | 34.4 | 14.6 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 221 | 108 | Bolsover | Natalie Fleet | 77,207 | 55.0 | 17.9 | 21.8 | 6.5 | 36.3 | 13.9 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 225 | 104 | Amber Valley | Linsey Farnsworth | 71,546 | 59.4 | 18.5 | 21.7 | 7.2 | 36.6 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 233 | 96 | Sherwood Forest | Michelle Welsh | 78,894 | 61.7 | 19.3 | 20.1 | 9.2 | 35.7 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 248 | 81 | Leicestershire North West | Amanda Hack | 77,757 | 62.5 | 30.0 | 17.2 | 5.3 | 34.5 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 251 | 77 | Northamptonshire South | Sarah Bool | 78,233 | 68.6 | 34.2 | 14.1 | 8.4 | 31.9 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 2.8 | CON | CON |
| 255 | 73 | Leicestershire Mid | Peter Bedford | 75,933 | 63.3 | 37.3 | 13.6 | 5.6 | 32.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | CON | CON |
| 258 | 71 | Bassetlaw | Jo White | 78,173 | 57.4 | 18.2 | 20.2 | 7.9 | 39.4 | 11.9 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 267 | 62 | Mansfield | Steve Yemm | 73,817 | 55.7 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 6.9 | 40.0 | 11.6 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 274 | 54 | Daventry | Stuart Andrew | 80,879 | 65.6 | 42.4 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 32.8 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | CON | CON |
| 274 | 54 | Newark | Robert Jenrick | 80,028 | 66.8 | 37.8 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 35.0 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 2.6 | CON | CON |
| 280 | 48 | Rutland and Stamford | Alicia Kearns | 71,711 | 67.7 | 45.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 32.1 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 2.4 | CON | CON |
| 280 | 48 | Hinckley and Bosworth | Luke Evans | 76,431 | 62.5 | 35.9 | 8.4 | 13.8 | 33.1 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 2.7 | CON | CON |
| 281 | 47 | Leicestershire South | Alberto Costa | 78,543 | 65.4 | 42.1 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 33.7 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 2.9 | CON | CON |
| 298 | 31 | Melton and Syston | Edward Argar | 74,316 | 61.9 | 35.7 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 38.2 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | CON | Reform |
| 299 | 29 | Gainsborough | Sir Edward Leigh | 75,836 | 61.6 | 40.3 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 37.9 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 2.7 | CON | CON |
| 303 | 26 | Sleaford and North Hykeham | Caroline Johnson | 75,807 | 64.1 | 37.0 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 39.6 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 4.1 | CON | Reform |
| 306 | 23 | Grantham and Bourne | Gareth Davies | 73,280 | 62.9 | 37.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 40.2 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 4.1 | CON | Reform |
| 314 | 15 | Ashfield | Lee Anderson | 68,929 | 57.9 | 8.3 | 15.4 | 4.5 | 49.2 | 9.6 | 13.0 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
| 322 | 7 | Louth and Horncastle | Victoria Atkins | 76,882 | 60.5 | 35.6 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 45.5 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 3.6 | CON | Reform |
| 324 | 5 | South Holland and The Deepings | John Hayes | 78,473 | 58.5 | 35.4 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 45.2 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 5.2 | CON | Reform |
| 326 | 3 | Boston and Skegness | Richard Tice | 75,811 | 53.4 | 32.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 51.8 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 4.1 | Reform | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.