East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	54.8%	39	27.3%	0	29	-29	10
LAB	31.7%	8	44.1%	29	0	+29	37
LIB	7.8%	0	5.9%	0	0	+0	0
Reform	1.5%	0	14.6%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.6%	0	5.6%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.7%	0	2.4%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Nottingham East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Sherwood Forest (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bolsover (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
38	520	Nottingham East	Nadia Whittome	75,287	60.4	8.4	63.7	4.1	9.7	11.5	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
82	476	Nottingham South	Lilian Greenwood	75,840	59.4	14.0	58.4	4.9	12.6	8.4	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
92	466	Leicester South	Jonathan Ashworth	71,620	64.5	10.2	53.3	4.9	8.1	20.7	0.0	2.8	LAB	LAB
123	435	Leicester West	Liz Kendall	73,309	54.8	17.2	56.6	4.6	12.6	7.1	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
144	414	Chesterfield	Toby Perkins	71,033	63.6	18.9	56.2	4.8	14.3	4.0	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
154	404	Nottingham North and Kimberley	Alex Norris	73,973	57.7	20.1	56.3	2.9	13.3	5.6	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
168	390	Derby South	Margaret Beckett	73,061	58.1	19.4	54.0	4.3	14.9	5.6	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
169	389	Northampton North	Michael Ellis	75,272	66.9	21.1	55.7	3.6	12.9	5.2	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
194	364	Loughborough	Jane Hunt	73,617	68.5	23.2	55.5	3.6	11.1	5.0	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
201	357	Gedling	Tom Randall	76,299	69.9	24.4	56.1	2.9	11.0	4.1	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
204	354	High Peak	Robert Largan	74,264	72.9	25.1	56.6	3.1	9.7	4.2	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
207	351	Lincoln	Karl McCartney	74,943	67.6	23.1	54.0	3.8	12.0	5.2	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
223	335	Bolsover	Mark Fletcher	74,427	61.9	23.5	53.1	2.5	15.6	3.6	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
235	323	Corby and East Northamptonshire	Tom Pursglove	76,933	70.2	24.9	53.9	4.4	12.5	3.2	0.0	1.1	CON	LAB
244	314	Derby North	Amanda Solloway	73,198	64.2	23.6	52.1	5.0	12.0	5.1	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
259	299	Broxtowe	Darren Henry	71,567	73.6	25.6	52.6	2.6	11.8	4.8	0.0	2.6	CON	LAB
275	283	Erewash	Maggie Throup	72,525	67.3	26.2	51.8	3.3	13.4	4.3	0.0	1.0	CON	LAB
279	279	Bassetlaw	Brendan Clarke-Smith	76,595	63.5	25.2	50.7	3.1	17.3	2.6	0.0	1.0	CON	LAB
287	271	Derbyshire North East	Lee Rowley	72,212	68.0	26.4	50.6	4.6	13.6	3.7	0.0	1.1	CON	LAB
297	261	Leicester East	Claudia Webbe	76,155	63.0	23.0	46.3	5.7	11.6	10.3	0.0	3.1	LAB	LAB
307	251	Rushcliffe	Ruth Edwards	75,883	78.5	27.0	49.4	7.8	9.7	4.1	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
336	222	Sherwood Forest	Mark Spencer	76,676	67.9	25.5	44.2	5.6	18.5	4.4	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
342	216	Wellingborough and Rushden	Peter Bone	77,190	64.7	25.0	42.7	6.0	16.4	4.3	1.8	3.6	CON	LAB
347	211	Northampton South	Andrew Lewer	71,109	68.6	27.5	44.6	7.1	14.3	4.9	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
357	201	Ashfield	Lee Anderson	69,549	62.7	15.0	30.7	2.9	18.0	3.0	27.6	3.0	CON	LAB
369	189	Derbyshire Mid	Pauline Latham	70,483	73.3	27.6	41.5	8.5	14.5	6.2	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
372	186	Kettering	Philip Hollobone	76,557	67.6	26.5	40.2	7.5	16.9	6.6	0.0	2.3	CON	LAB
373	185	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	Neil O'Brien	74,366	71.5	26.1	39.4	14.6	12.4	5.7	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
382	176	Leicestershire North West	Andrew Bridgen	74,791	68.2	28.7	41.0	5.9	17.3	5.3	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
383	175	Derbyshire South	Heather Wheeler	70,152	67.3	30.2	42.6	4.8	16.2	4.8	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
386	172	Derbyshire Dales	Sarah Dines	71,145	75.6	27.3	39.5	11.1	14.7	5.6	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
398	160	Mansfield	Ben Bradley	74,411	63.9	32.4	42.9	2.6	17.0	4.1	0.0	1.2	CON	LAB
423	135	Leicestershire Mid	Edward Argar	75,557	69.8	30.6	37.5	7.8	15.9	6.2	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
427	131	Amber Valley	Nigel Mills	70,045	65.1	34.7	41.0	3.0	14.2	6.0	0.0	1.1	CON	LAB
430	128	Melton and Syston	Unknown (new seat)	72,307	70.0	30.1	36.2	7.2	16.4	8.1	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
452	106	Newark	Robert Jenrick	76,720	71.8	34.2	36.5	6.5	15.9	5.2	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
466	92	Gainsborough	Edward Leigh	74,306	66.9	33.6	34.5	9.0	16.6	4.3	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
482	76	Hinckley and Bosworth	Luke Evans	75,165	69.1	32.5	31.4	13.6	15.3	5.2	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
488	70	Leicestershire South	Alberto Costa	75,166	71.4	35.7	33.8	7.6	15.1	5.9	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
501	57	Grantham and Bourne	Gareth Davies	72,168	69.1	35.9	33.1	6.2	16.7	6.4	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
502	56	Daventry	Chris Heaton-Harris	76,041	73.6	35.7	32.8	8.4	15.1	6.0	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
503	55	Northamptonshire South	Andrea Leadsom	76,174	73.1	36.3	33.2	7.9	14.9	5.8	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
510	48	Sleaford and North Hykeham	Caroline Johnson	74,547	70.2	36.8	32.3	6.0	17.9	4.9	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
524	34	Rutland and Stamford	Alicia Kearns	71,730	69.8	36.7	30.0	10.8	14.8	5.8	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
534	24	Louth and Horncastle	Victoria Atkins	76,035	65.7	38.9	30.1	5.5	19.7	4.2	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
540	18	Boston and Skegness	Matt Warman	75,021	60.5	37.2	27.7	4.4	24.8	4.2	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
555	3	South Holland and The Deepings	John Hayes	75,977	64.7	40.1	26.2	5.1	21.6	5.4	0.0	1.6	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.