| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 20.2% | 1 | 16.3% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 |
| LAB | 45.4% | 26 | 22.4% | 0 | 23 | -23 | 3 |
| LIB | 5.9% | 0 | 7.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 19.9% | 0 | 37.0% | 22 | 0 | +22 | 22 |
| Green | 6.0% | 0 | 13.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 2.6% | 0 | 3.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Hexham' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Easington', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Middlesbrough and Thornaby East (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Tynemouth (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 379 | Hexham | Joe Morris | 76,431 | 67.8 | 28.9 | 31.0 | 9.4 | 19.0 | 9.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 27 | 361 | Newcastle upon Tyne North | Catherine McKinnell | 75,146 | 64.7 | 10.0 | 35.4 | 9.3 | 27.8 | 14.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 36 | 352 | Tynemouth | Alan Campbell | 73,469 | 65.9 | 5.4 | 44.9 | 2.2 | 39.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 89 | 298 | Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | Luke Myer | 70,328 | 54.1 | 31.5 | 24.1 | 6.5 | 27.8 | 8.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | LAB | CON |
| 92 | 296 | Durham, City of | Mary Foy | 70,582 | 57.6 | 10.1 | 29.9 | 9.2 | 34.1 | 13.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 110 | 278 | Gateshead Central and Whickham | Mark Ferguson | 69,823 | 57.6 | 5.8 | 36.9 | 4.5 | 42.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 121 | 267 | Northumberland North | David Smith | 74,132 | 65.9 | 20.9 | 22.0 | 15.0 | 28.6 | 9.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 148 | 240 | Cramlington and Killingworth | Emma Foody | 76,228 | 59.6 | 7.6 | 35.4 | 3.3 | 44.3 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 164 | 224 | Blaydon and Consett | Liz Twist | 70,487 | 59.9 | 7.5 | 34.2 | 3.1 | 44.2 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 187 | 201 | Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | Mary Glindon | 76,421 | 55.4 | 9.5 | 22.9 | 7.1 | 35.3 | 21.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 200 | 187 | Stockton West | Matt Vickers | 71,868 | 67.7 | 39.4 | 16.7 | 5.8 | 30.4 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 206 | 182 | Stockton North | Chris McDonald | 70,242 | 53.2 | 7.3 | 33.4 | 2.7 | 47.7 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 217 | 171 | Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | Chi Onwurah | 76,969 | 53.7 | 12.1 | 20.9 | 7.6 | 36.2 | 18.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 225 | 163 | Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor | Alan Strickland | 72,224 | 55.2 | 17.2 | 23.6 | 5.1 | 39.2 | 12.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 226 | 162 | Darlington | Lola McEvoy | 70,763 | 59.9 | 22.1 | 20.3 | 7.1 | 35.9 | 11.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 253 | 135 | Bishop Auckland | Sam Rushworth | 70,745 | 57.1 | 20.2 | 21.2 | 5.2 | 38.6 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 270 | 118 | Jarrow and Gateshead East | Kate Osborne | 70,272 | 52.3 | 6.9 | 29.7 | 3.4 | 48.9 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 274 | 114 | Hartlepool | Jonathan Brash | 71,437 | 49.7 | 8.8 | 30.1 | 2.9 | 49.7 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 281 | 107 | Redcar | Anna Turley | 70,241 | 54.4 | 19.4 | 21.1 | 6.9 | 41.2 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 292 | 96 | Washington and Gateshead South | Sharon Hodgson | 70,972 | 52.2 | 6.4 | 30.5 | 2.7 | 51.2 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 296 | 92 | Houghton and Sunderland South | Bridget Phillipson | 78,448 | 51.0 | 6.4 | 30.4 | 3.0 | 51.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 302 | 86 | Sunderland Central | Lewis Atkinson | 76,145 | 52.5 | 12.3 | 20.6 | 9.0 | 42.7 | 12.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 303 | 85 | Blyth and Ashington | Ian Lavery | 76,263 | 53.0 | 14.3 | 19.8 | 4.7 | 42.0 | 16.7 | 2.1 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 309 | 79 | Durham North | Luke Akehurst | 73,235 | 56.8 | 14.9 | 18.5 | 7.2 | 41.2 | 15.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 321 | 67 | South Shields | Emma Lewell-Buck | 68,366 | 53.9 | 13.8 | 17.2 | 6.7 | 41.0 | 17.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 334 | 54 | Middlesbrough and Thornaby East | Andy McDonald | 75,123 | 45.8 | 14.4 | 18.4 | 5.6 | 43.6 | 13.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 348 | 40 | Easington | Grahame Morris | 69,411 | 49.5 | 11.5 | 19.4 | 4.3 | 46.0 | 15.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.