North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	37.5%	33	18.8%	0	33	-33	0
LAB	47.3%	40	54.6%	30	0	+30	70
LIB	7.9%	0	6.2%	3	0	+3	3
Reform	3.9%	0	12.4%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.5%	0	5.8%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.1%	0	2.2%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Penrith and Solway (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wirral West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
1	557	Liverpool Walton	Dan Carden	70,861	66.3	4.3	79.6	2.1	7.3	5.0	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
2	556	Bootle	Peter Dowd	74,832	65.7	4.1	79.0	2.3	7.9	5.1	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
3	555	Knowsley	George Howarth	70,836	65.3	3.7	78.4	2.5	7.8	5.9	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
4	554	Liverpool Riverside	Kim Johnson	70,301	65.6	2.6	77.0	3.0	6.4	9.0	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
5	553	Liverpool West Derby	Ian Byrne	70,379	66.9	4.2	77.3	2.6	8.7	5.2	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
12	546	Liverpool Wavertree	Paula Barker	71,135	67.3	3.9	70.3	5.7	7.0	10.6	0.0	2.5	LAB	LAB
14	544	Chorley	Lindsay Hoyle	74,743	51.0	4.3	70.1	2.2	10.4	8.8	0.0	4.2	LAB	LAB
15	543	Liverpool Garston	Maria Eagle	70,128	69.8	5.0	70.7	6.7	9.3	5.5	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
19	539	Widnes and Halewood	Derek Twigg	70,355	65.6	8.2	71.7	2.2	10.8	5.2	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
23	535	Manchester Withington	Jeff Smith	71,167	68.7	5.8	67.6	7.5	7.0	9.6	0.0	2.5	LAB	LAB
26	532	Manchester Rusholme	Unknown (new seat)	69,299	57.5	4.1	63.4	5.3	7.1	17.4	0.0	2.8	LAB	LAB
27	531	Wallasey	Angela Eagle	72,516	70.7	9.3	68.0	3.2	11.3	6.3	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
34	524	St Helens South and Whiston	Marie Rimmer	70,538	63.6	7.9	64.1	4.1	11.9	9.6	0.0	2.4	LAB	LAB
35	523	Salford	Rebecca Long-Bailey	71,672	60.6	8.3	64.2	3.7	12.7	8.8	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
36	522	Birkenhead	Mick Whitley	75,675	67.9	6.3	62.2	3.6	8.6	16.1	0.0	3.2	LAB	LAB
37	521	Manchester Central	Lucy Powell	73,790	56.0	7.4	62.9	4.9	12.2	9.9	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
47	511	Gorton and Denton	Afzal Khan	73,749	59.6	8.6	61.2	4.5	12.1	10.9	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
52	506	Stretford and Urmston	Kate Green	72,371	69.2	15.4	66.3	3.2	7.8	4.9	0.0	2.4	LAB	LAB
54	504	Ellesmere Port and Bromborough	Justin Madders	71,097	71.5	13.4	63.5	4.1	10.6	6.9	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
64	494	St Helens North	Conor McGinn	75,594	62.9	13.3	60.7	4.0	14.7	5.9	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
74	484	Blackley and Middleton South	Graham Stringer	70,878	54.7	13.4	59.0	3.9	15.5	6.5	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
79	479	Stockport	Navendu Mishra	75,659	62.3	14.2	59.1	5.2	12.2	7.6	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
84	474	Sefton Central	Bill Esterson	74,418	72.3	17.5	61.8	4.3	11.1	4.0	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
86	472	Wythenshawe and Sale East	Mike Kane	76,314	58.6	15.4	59.5	3.8	12.1	7.7	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
104	454	Wigan	Lisa Nandy	75,680	59.5	16.4	57.2	3.4	16.9	4.6	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
118	440	Runcorn and Helsby	Mike Amesbury	70,451	69.1	20.0	59.8	3.4	10.8	4.6	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
119	439	Preston	Mark Hendrick	73,810	59.3	16.1	55.8	5.4	13.4	7.4	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
122	436	Chester North and Neston	Chris Matheson	73,078	71.2	21.4	60.9	4.5	7.3	3.7	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
126	432	Lancashire West	Rosie Cooper	73,347	71.8	22.5	61.7	3.0	8.3	3.2	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
131	427	Makerfield	Yvonne Fovargue	76,308	59.7	18.9	57.5	2.7	15.8	3.6	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
138	420	Bolton South and Walkden	Yasmin Qureshi	76,112	59.0	15.7	53.8	4.2	16.7	7.7	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
141	417	Ashton under Lyne	Angela Rayner	71,709	57.2	19.2	56.7	2.6	14.6	5.4	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
143	415	Whitehaven and Workington	Trudy Harrison	73,374	68.5	21.5	58.9	2.1	13.4	3.0	0.0	1.1	CON	LAB
149	409	Blackpool South	Scott Benton	77,039	57.8	19.1	56.0	2.5	16.6	4.5	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
157	401	Worsley and Eccles	Barbara Keeley	77,299	60.1	20.7	56.5	3.4	13.3	4.5	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
160	398	Stalybridge and Hyde	Jonathan Reynolds	73,063	58.0	20.1	55.5	3.2	14.4	5.2	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
162	396	Blackburn	Kate Hollern	69,792	62.8	13.6	49.0	5.2	14.0	14.6	0.0	3.7	LAB	LAB
171	387	Warrington North	Charlotte Nichols	72,097	64.6	21.8	56.3	3.2	13.0	4.2	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
189	369	Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton	Jim McMahon	72,998	60.9	17.4	49.9	5.2	17.1	8.0	0.0	2.4	LAB	LAB
196	362	Barrow and Furness	Simon Fell	78,041	66.0	22.6	54.9	3.2	14.3	3.7	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
206	352	Leigh and Atherton	James Grundy	76,369	61.6	23.7	54.7	2.5	14.3	3.2	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
219	339	Warrington South	Andy Carter	76,256	71.9	24.9	54.9	4.4	10.7	3.3	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
220	338	Crewe and Nantwich	Kieran Mullan	76,322	67.3	24.0	53.9	2.7	14.1	3.9	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
222	336	Bury South	Christian Wakeford	75,131	65.2	23.3	53.1	3.3	13.4	4.9	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
229	329	Wirral West	Unknown (changed seat)	71,641	76.9	25.5	54.9	4.3	9.9	3.7	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
245	313	Southport	Damien Moore	73,910	68.6	21.9	50.2	8.3	14.4	3.5	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
252	306	Heywood and Middleton North	Unknown (changed seat)	72,636	59.3	22.8	50.8	3.7	15.8	5.2	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
257	301	Ribble South	Katherine Fletcher	71,551	70.3	24.9	52.5	3.9	13.3	3.8	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
264	294	Cheshire Mid	Unknown (new seat)	69,411	71.6	25.6	52.2	4.4	12.0	4.1	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
272	286	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Paul Maynard	75,797	63.4	24.5	50.7	3.7	16.1	3.8	0.0	1.1	CON	LAB
280	278	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Debbie Abrahams	72,120	64.0	22.0	47.3	6.4	15.8	5.9	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
281	277	Lancaster and Wyre	Unknown (changed seat)	75,065	66.4	24.5	49.5	3.8	9.1	11.4	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
283	275	Rossendale and Darwen	Jake Berry	74,211	67.0	26.5	51.0	3.4	13.8	4.2	0.0	1.0	CON	LAB
286	272	Bolton West	Chris Green	72,183	66.2	24.5	48.8	6.2	14.9	4.1	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
290	268	Bury North	James Daly	77,499	67.9	26.9	51.0	3.4	12.1	4.8	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
292	266	Carlisle	John Stevenson	76,811	67.0	25.7	49.6	4.6	14.5	4.3	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
294	264	Macclesfield	David Rutley	76,216	70.7	26.6	50.3	4.6	12.4	4.5	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
303	255	Bolton North East	Mark Logan	77,252	63.7	26.0	48.6	4.1	13.9	5.3	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
309	249	Morecambe and Lunesdale	David Morris	76,057	69.2	24.5	46.8	8.5	14.2	4.2	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
314	244	Hyndburn	Sara Britcliffe	70,839	59.9	25.9	48.0	3.7	14.8	5.7	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
324	234	Burnley	Antony Higginbotham	74,722	61.6	23.6	44.4	6.3	16.3	7.1	0.0	2.3	CON	LAB
329	229	Penrith and Solway	Mark Jenkinson	77,207	68.9	26.5	47.1	5.8	15.0	4.2	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
339	219	Altrincham and Sale West	Graham Brady	73,107	74.9	28.4	46.7	6.4	8.9	7.3	0.0	2.3	CON	LAB
346	212	Pendle and Clitheroe	Andrew Stephenson	76,246	68.6	26.0	43.2	7.8	15.9	5.4	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
390	168	Rochdale	Tony Lloyd	70,809	60.1	15.6	27.3	5.9	12.4	4.6	19.8	14.4	LAB	LAB
392	166	Tatton	Esther McVey	75,992	71.1	29.0	40.4	10.7	14.1	4.3	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
407	151	Congleton	Fiona Bruce	69,884	70.7	29.0	37.9	9.9	16.7	4.5	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
411	147	Ribble Valley	Nigel Evans	75,219	70.0	30.8	38.9	7.4	16.5	4.5	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
412	146	Chester South and Eddisbury	Edward Timpson	71,875	71.6	28.9	37.0	12.0	15.8	4.3	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
465	93	Fylde	Mark Menzies	74,016	70.0	34.4	35.4	6.1	17.2	5.1	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
482	75	Hazel Grove	William Wragg	73,970	69.0	27.2	25.9	32.2	10.7	2.6	0.0	1.4	CON	LIB
532	25	Cheadle	Mary Robinson	74,578	75.0	28.2	19.6	39.3	9.2	2.3	0.0	1.4	CON	LIB
540	17	Westmorland and Lonsdale	Unknown (changed seat)	73,247	75.8	26.0	16.5	43.3	10.6	2.1	0.0	1.4	CON	LIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.