South East: Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	30.6%	30	23.8%	3	6	-3	27
LAB	24.5%	36	14.9%	0	28	-28	8
LIB	21.9%	24	18.9%	1	1	+0	24
Reform	14.0%	0	27.1%	30	0	+30	30
Green	6.9%	1	12.1%	0	0	+0	1
Other	2.1%	0	3.2%	1	0	+1	1

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Oxford East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Sittingbourne and Sheppey', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Fareham and Waterlooville (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB Seats	Reform Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
27	358	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	71,845	54.8	15.7	27.8	10.8	10.5	26.6	0.0	8.6	0.0	LAB	LAB
32	353	Hove and Portslade	Peter Kyle	74,063	70.1	14.7	30.9	9.1	15.2	22.6	0.0	7.5	0.0	LAB	LAB
41	344	Reading Central	Matt Rodda	73,600	61.5	15.8	30.2	11.3	17.1	20.0	0.0	5.5	0.0	LAB	LAB
42	343	Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven	Chris Ward	68,784	59.2	16.0	28.7	11.7	15.7	21.5	0.0	6.5	0.0	LAB	LAB
44	340	Brighton Pavilion	Siân Berry	74,786	70.0	10.0	17.8	6.2	6.0	50.4	0.0	9.6	0.0	Green	Green
57	328	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	73,711	52.8	8.8	40.5	5.7	30.7	9.0	0.0	5.3	0.0	LAB	LAB
63	322	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	71,171	66.4	10.6	39.5	6.2	31.2	8.7	0.0	3.8	0.0	LAB	LAB
68	316	Earley and Woodley	Yuan Yang	73,548	62.4	28.2	23.9	15.5	16.6	13.5	0.0	2.3	0.0	LAB	CON
92	293	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tom Rutland	74,738	65.7	12.1	37.2	5.9	34.8	6.5	0.0	3.4	0.0	LAB	LAB
94	290	Wycombe	Emma Reynolds	73,846	60.4	24.6	21.5	14.1	19.9	15.3	0.0	4.5	0.0	LAB	CON
99	286	Milton Keynes Central	Emily Darlington	81,078	58.9	22.1	24.7	11.3	23.9	13.5	0.0	4.5	0.0	LAB	LAB
118	266	Slough	Tan Dhesi	81,512	53.1	18.2	16.4	5.2	18.6	17.8	0.0	23.7	0.0	LAB	MIN
121	264	Southampton Test	Satvir Kaur	65,520	54.6	14.8	26.6	8.0	29.0	15.9	0.0	5.7	0.0	LAB	Reform
126	259	Milton Keynes North	Chris Curtis	70,709	65.0	24.1	23.3	10.1	26.3	12.3	0.0	4.0	0.0	LAB	Reform
127	257	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	71,318	64.5	16.8	13.7	32.2	17.0	16.0	0.0	4.2	0.0	LIB	LIB
142	243	Banbury	Sean Woodcock	73,193	65.8	24.1	21.7	13.0	27.4	10.4	0.0	3.4	0.0	LAB	Reform
144	240	Maidenhead	Joshua Peter Reynolds	75,687	66.5	35.7	2.3	48.1	8.5	3.6	0.0	1.9	0.0	LIB	LIB
146	239	Reading West and Mid Berkshire	Olivia Bailey	68,786	67.7	24.9	20.1	13.8	26.6	11.3	0.0	3.2	0.0	LAB	Reform
149	236	Basingstoke	Luke Murphy	78,487	62.4	23.8	20.9	9.9	27.7	13.2	0.0	4.5	0.0	LAB	Reform
149	235	East Grinstead and Uckfield	Mims Davies	75,385	66.8	29.1	13.0	20.7	19.8	15.2	0.0	2.2	0.0	CON	CON
157	227	Epsom and Ewell	Helen Maguire	77,530	70.3	26.7	10.9	29.6	18.6	9.9	0.0	4.3	0.0	LIB	LIB
158	227	Hastings and Rye	Helena Dollimore	75,939	60.6	17.7	22.3	9.5	30.2	16.1	0.0	4.1	0.0	LAB	Reform
161	223	Windsor	Jack Rankin	73,334	61.7	29.0	14.5	19.4	22.4	12.4	0.0	2.2	0.0	CON	CON
165	219	Esher and Walton	Monica Harding	74,042	72.8	31.3	2.8	46.6	11.0	4.7	0.0	3.6	0.0	LIB	LIB
171	213	Woking	Will Forster	72,977	66.0	23.2	9.9	33.0	19.0	11.3	0.0	3.6	0.0	LIB	LIB
173	211	Sussex Mid	Alison Bennett	75,969	70.2	23.1	12.6	29.2	22.1	10.1	0.0	3.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
176	209	Worthing West	Beccy Cooper	77,038	66.2	24.2	20.9	10.3	30.7	10.5	0.0	3.3	0.0	LAB	Reform
177	208	Southampton Itchen	Darren Paffey	68,379	55.7	16.6	24.6	9.2	34.4	11.3	0.0	3.8	0.0	LAB	Reform
180	204	Guildford	Zöe Franklin	70,734	68.3	24.0	9.2	32.3	19.1	11.7	0.0	3.7	0.0	LIB	LIB
181	204	Buckingham and Bletchley	Callum Anderson	74,832	63.7	23.2	20.5	12.0	30.5	10.4	0.0	3.4	0.0	LAB	Reform
188	196	Farnham and Bordon	Gregory Stafford	75,918	69.8	28.4	10.6	27.9	21.1	10.0	0.0	1.9	0.0	CON	CON
188	196	Hampshire North East	Alex Brewer	76,975	72.2	36.0	3.4	40.4	13.9	4.4	0.0	1.8	0.0	LIB	LIB
190	194	Chesham and Amersham	Sarah Green	74,889	72.7	31.9	4.8	40.1	15.5	6.1	0.0	1.5	0.0	LIB	LIB
190	194	Godalming and Ash	Jeremy Hunt	74,168	73.7	38.8	1.6	43.1	12.5	2.7	0.0	1.2	0.0	CON	LIB
191	193	Winchester	Danny Chambers	78,289	72.9	22.9	7.5	37.4	18.6	10.6	0.0	3.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
192	192	Wokingham	Clive Jones	75,082	71.9	25.6	8.0	36.0	19.2	8.7	0.0	2.5	0.0	LIB	LIB
193	191	Bicester and Woodstock	Calum Alexander Miller	74,350	67.5	23.9	11.6	27.4	22.9	11.0	0.0	3.2	0.0	LIB	LIB
196	188	Tunbridge Wells	Mike Martin	78,738	68.9	23.6	10.2	30.3	22.1	10.5	0.0	3.3	0.0	LIB	LIB
200	185	Aldershot	Alex Baker	78,569	61.8	22.1	20.5	10.7	32.6	10.6	0.0	3.5	0.0	LAB	Reform
200	184	Didcot and Wantage	Olly Glover	80,689	67.8	22.6	11.4	28.3	23.6	10.8	0.0	3.3	0.0	LIB	LIB
213	172	Crawley	Peter Lamb	75,569	60.4	21.7	19.2	8.4	33.1	12.4	0.0	5.2	0.0	LAB	Reform
217	167	Reigate	Rebecca Paul	77,101	68.9	37.3	12.8	10.3	26.9	10.6	0.0	2.0	0.0	CON	CON
219	165	Henley and Thame	Freddie Van Mierlo	73,749	72.1	24.7	7.9	33.2	22.2	9.3	0.0	2.7	0.0	LIB	LIB
220	165	Bracknell	Peter Swallow	71,656	61.2	22.2	18.7	12.9	33.0	9.8	0.0	3.3	0.0	LAB	Reform
221	164	Thanet East	Polly Billington	74,940	57.0	17.4	21.7	8.2	36.1	13.2	0.0	3.5	0.0	LAB	Reform
223	161	Beaconsfield	Joy Morrissey	72,751	65.6	31.3	10.1	22.3	24.5	10.2	0.0	1.6	0.0	CON	CON
223	161	Horsham	John Milne	79,150	70.1	25.6	9.6	29.6	24.1	8.8	0.0	2.4	0.0	LIB	LIB
224	160	Buckinghamshire Mid	Greg Smith	75,415	71.5	29.3	10.6	23.4	25.3	10.0	0.0	1.4	0.0	CON	CON
227	158	Isle of Wight West	Richard Quigley	55,406	61.9	27.7	16.8	9.1	31.7	10.8	0.0	3.9	0.0	LAB	Reform
229	156	Dover and Deal	Mike Tapp	76,406	62.5	18.1	21.6	9.7	36.7	10.9	0.0	3.0	0.0	LAB	Reform
232	153	Eastleigh	Liz Jarvis	69,965	66.3	22.1	11.9	26.4	27.1	9.9	0.0	2.7	0.0	LIB	Reform
233	151	Runnymede and Weybridge	Ben Spencer	73,610	65.6	32.9	11.7	17.7	27.0	9.0	0.0	1.7	0.0	CON	CON
240	144	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	71,871	69.6	28.9	8.6	28.3	24.2	8.7	0.0	1.3	0.0	CON	CON
240	144	Newbury	Lee Raymond James Dillon	71,986	68.0	25.4	8.3	30.9	24.0	9.9	0.0	1.5	0.0	LIB	LIB
240	144	Aylesbury	Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith	79,169	63.1	34.6	12.5	12.1	28.4	9.1	0.0	3.2	0.0	LAB	CON
241	143	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	71,965	69.6	28.3	8.6	28.0	24.6	9.2	0.0	1.3	0.0	CON	CON
241	143	Hamble Valley	Paul Holmes	80,537	67.1	27.6	11.3	23.5	27.4	8.9	0.0	1.3	0.0	CON	CON
264	120	Witney	Charlie Maynard	75,448	67.0	23.6	8.5	30.1	26.5	8.7	0.0	2.6	0.0	LIB	LIB
264	120	Surrey Heath	Al Pinkerton	71,934	66.4	25.0	7.6	31.2	25.6	8.2	0.0	2.4	0.0	LIB	LIB
265	119	Dorking and Horley	Chris Coghlan	71,850	69.5	23.2	7.9	31.0	26.1	9.4	0.0	2.3	0.0	LIB	LIB
267	117	Lewes	James MacCleary	76,166	69.8	19.4	6.9	35.3	25.9	9.4	0.0	3.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
273	112	Gillingham and Rainham	Naushabah Khan	73,523	56.0	22.8	17.3	8.6	37.2	10.8	0.0	3.3	0.0	LAB	Reform
280	105	Gravesham	Lauren Sullivan	73,088	59.2	22.2	18.4	7.9	38.6	9.8	0.0	3.1	0.0	LAB	Reform
282	103	Portsmouth North	Amanda Martin	70,446	59.0	29.0	15.2	8.2	35.4	8.7	0.0	3.5	0.0	LAB	Reform
297	88	Rochester and Strood	Lauren Rae Edwards	74,257	57.4	22.9	16.7	7.5	38.4	10.8	0.0	3.7	0.0	LAB	Reform
299	86	Folkestone and Hythe	Tony Vaughan	70,056	61.7	17.7	18.6	8.2	40.4	12.2	0.0	2.8	0.0	LAB	Reform
305	79	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	78,629	64.6	43.4	8.9	7.9	31.6	6.5	0.0	1.7	0.0	CON	CON
306	78	Chichester	Jessica Brown-Fuller	78,374	66.3	16.2	6.5	38.4	29.3	7.1	0.0	2.5	0.0	LIB	LIB
310	75	Sevenoaks	Laura Trott	73,708	67.7	31.0	8.0	20.3	31.2	8.2	0.0	1.3	0.0	CON	Reform
313	71	Surrey East	Claire Coutinho	73,307	67.1	43.8	7.6	8.2	31.3	7.1	0.0	2.0	0.0	CON	CON
329	55	Fareham and Waterlooville	Suella Braverman	77,691	64.5	36.7	9.2	12.2	34.1	6.5	0.0	1.3	0.0	CON	CON
329	55	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,644	67.5	43.9	7.5	8.5	32.6	6.1	0.0	1.4	0.0	CON	CON
330	55	Ashford	Sojan Joseph	76,212	61.6	29.1	11.9	6.3	37.2	11.6	0.0	3.9	0.0	LAB	Reform
331	53	Arundel and South Downs	Andrew Griffith	77,969	70.2	44.2	6.3	8.4	31.8	7.9	0.0	1.5	0.0	CON	CON
333	52	Dartford	Jim Dickson	75,426	59.0	30.2	12.5	6.5	38.1	9.6	0.0	3.1	0.0	LAB	Reform
334	51	Isle of Wight East	Joe Robertson	55,855	61.0	27.5	8.8	9.7	34.5	15.8	0.0	3.6	0.0	CON	Reform
337	48	Havant	Alan Mak	72,346	58.3	20.3	15.5	10.1	41.5	9.7	0.0	2.8	0.0	CON	Reform
338	47	Faversham and Mid Kent	Helen Whately	74,301	62.7	30.2	11.6	7.9	37.7	9.4	0.0	3.2	0.0	CON	Reform
339	45	Bexhill and Battle	Kieran Mullan	72,209	66.1	40.7	8.9	5.3	35.1	6.9	0.0	3.1	0.0	CON	CON
339	45	Spelthorne	Lincoln Jopp	73,782	62.6	38.3	8.4	8.0	34.6	7.4	0.0	3.2	0.0	CON	CON
341	43	Tonbridge	Tom Tugendhat	72,799	69.1	44.0	6.0	5.5	32.4	10.2	0.0	1.8	0.0	CON	CON
344	40	Sussex Weald	Nus Ghani	72,897	67.5	36.6	7.2	11.0	34.1	8.4	0.0	2.7	0.0	CON	CON
349	36	Chatham and Aylesford	Tristan Osborne	75,109	54.4	26.8	12.9	6.9	40.9	9.3	0.0	3.1	0.0	LAB	Reform
350	34	Maidstone and Malling	Helen Grant	76,449	60.7	39.0	7.8	6.3	36.0	7.9	0.0	3.1	0.0	CON	CON
351	33	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	70,618	64.0	43.0	6.6	7.7	34.9	6.4	0.0	1.4	0.0	CON	CON
355	29	Weald of Kent	Katie Jane Lotte Lam	75,988	66.7	43.1	6.8	5.5	35.9	7.3	0.0	1.4	0.0	CON	CON
355	29	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,261	60.4	42.2	8.0	5.7	37.5	5.4	0.0	1.3	0.0	CON	CON
358	26	Herne Bay and Sandwich	Roger Gale	77,841	62.7	40.1	8.5	4.7	38.6	6.5	0.0	1.5	0.0	CON	CON
361	24	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Ali Griffiths	77,565	61.7	33.8	10.0	7.3	40.3	6.1	0.0	2.4	0.0	CON	Reform
373	11	Eastbourne	Josh Babarinde	72,592	62.8	5.5	1.6	52.5	35.9	2.4	0.0	2.1	0.0	LIB	LIB
377	8	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Kevin McKenna	79,067	51.9	32.4	8.0	4.3	45.4	6.8	0.0	3.0	0.0	LAB	Reform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.