South East: Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	30.6%	30	24.8%	4	4	+0	30
LAB	24.5%	36	19.7%	0	17	-17	19
LIB	21.9%	24	17.0%	0	1	-1	23
Reform	14.0%	0	23.7%	18	0	+18	18
Green	6.9%	1	8.9%	0	0	+0	1
Other	2.1%	0	5.9%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Oxford East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Isle of Wight East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Gravesham (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Reading Central (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB Seats	Reform Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
18	381	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	71,845	54.8	11.2	41.7	6.6	14.4	21.6	4.4	0.0	LAB	LAB
37	362	Hove and Portslade	Peter Kyle	74,063	70.1	10.3	40.2	5.5	15.8	22.8	5.4	0.0	LAB	LAB
61	337	Brighton Pavilion	Siân Berry	74,786	70.0	7.7	28.7	5.6	8.9	45.6	3.5	0.0	Green	Green
62	337	Reading Central	Matt Rodda	73,600	61.5	15.0	36.5	7.2	16.7	18.5	6.1	0.0	LAB	LAB
82	317	Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven	Chris Ward	68,784	59.2	13.9	34.1	7.5	16.6	21.5	6.5	0.0	LAB	LAB
108	291	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	73,711	52.8	5.0	47.2	2.4	33.0	4.2	8.1	0.0	LAB	LAB
160	239	Southampton Test	Satvir Kaur	65,520	54.6	13.6	31.4	6.4	21.7	18.4	8.4	0.0	LAB	LAB
167	232	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	71,171	66.4	10.7	39.8	4.4	30.5	7.3	7.3	0.0	LAB	LAB
184	215	Slough	Tan Dhesi	81,512	53.1	17.3	25.9	5.5	18.3	13.9	19.2	0.0	LAB	LAB
184	214	Earley and Woodley	Yuan Yang	73,548	62.4	30.5	26.1	9.4	18.8	10.3	4.9	0.0	LAB	CON
189	210	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tom Rutland	74,738	65.7	12.1	39.6	3.9	32.5	4.9	6.9	0.0	LAB	LAB
206	193	Wycombe	Emma Reynolds	73,846	60.4	22.5	29.9	9.6	24.6	7.9	5.5	0.0	LAB	LAB
207	192	Hastings and Rye	Helena Dollimore	75,939	60.6	6.0	44.3	1.5	39.0	2.8	6.4	0.0	LAB	LAB
218	181	Milton Keynes Central	Emily Darlington	81,078	58.9	21.4	26.0	10.5	21.8	12.5	7.8	0.0	LAB	LAB
222	176	East Grinstead and Uckfield	Mims Davies	75,385	66.8	29.0	23.2	14.0	19.6	10.5	3.7	0.0	CON	CON
234	165	Milton Keynes North	Chris Curtis	70,709	65.0	23.4	26.2	8.8	23.3	11.2	7.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
238	161	Southampton Itchen	Darren Paffey	68,379	55.7	7.9	39.7	2.2	37.3	3.9	9.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
240	159	Basingstoke	Luke Murphy	78,487	62.4	23.3	27.4	7.9	25.1	10.0	6.4	0.0	LAB	LAB
247	152	Banbury	Sean Woodcock	73,193	65.8	25.1	27.1	8.5	25.0	7.4	7.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
253	145	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	71,318	64.5	16.9	15.7	36.2	14.6	12.8	3.8	0.0	LIB	LIB
256	143	Worthing West	Beccy Cooper	77,038	66.2	25.7	27.7	6.4	26.8	7.4	6.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
260	139	Crawley	Peter Lamb	75,569	60.4	20.3	25.9	6.5	25.2	12.6	9.5	0.0	LAB	LAB
261	138	Buckingham and Bletchley	Callum Anderson	74,832	63.7	25.1	25.5	8.2	25.0	8.7	7.5	0.0	LAB	LAB
268	131	Thanet East	Polly Billington	74,940	57.0	6.2	40.3	1.3	40.4	2.9	9.0	0.0	LAB	Reform
268	130	Reigate	Rebecca Paul	77,101	68.9	29.0	22.8	9.8	23.0	10.7	4.8	0.0	CON	CON
279	119	Reading West and Mid Berkshire	Olivia Bailey	68,786	67.7	26.4	24.8	9.7	25.9	7.0	6.1	0.0	LAB	CON
283	116	Aldershot	Alex Baker	78,569	61.8	23.0	24.9	8.9	26.5	8.9	7.8	0.0	LAB	Reform
296	103	Bracknell	Peter Swallow	71,656	61.2	24.1	23.8	8.3	26.2	8.2	9.3	0.0	LAB	Reform
296	102	Windsor	Jack Rankin	73,334	61.7	30.9	19.0	14.0	21.6	9.2	5.4	0.0	CON	CON
299	99	Sussex Mid	Alison Bennett	75,969	70.2	24.5	12.5	37.8	15.5	5.9	3.9	0.0	LIB	LIB
308	90	Bicester and Woodstock	Calum Alexander Miller	74,350	67.5	24.1	13.3	34.4	17.3	6.6	4.2	0.0	LIB	LIB
310	88	Didcot and Wantage	Olly Glover	80,689	67.8	22.4	13.7	33.4	18.0	7.7	4.9	0.0	LIB	LIB
314	85	Bexhill and Battle	Kieran Mullan	72,209	66.1	26.3	24.1	7.8	28.6	7.0	6.2	0.0	CON	Reform
323	75	Maidenhead	Joshua Peter Reynolds	75,687	66.5	37.5	2.9	45.5	8.3	2.3	3.6	0.0	LIB	LIB
324	74	Tunbridge Wells	Mike Martin	78,738	68.9	23.7	10.8	38.0	16.4	6.5	4.6	0.0	LIB	LIB
325	74	Dover and Deal	Mike Tapp	76,406	62.5	6.6	38.3	1.7	44.0	1.9	7.5	0.0	LAB	Reform
331	68	Gravesham	Lauren Sullivan	73,088	59.2	24.7	23.8	5.2	29.6	7.9	8.9	0.0	LAB	Reform
331	67	Woking	Will Forster	72,977	66.0	24.6	7.6	44.3	13.5	5.4	4.6	0.0	LIB	LIB
333	66	Gillingham and Rainham	Naushabah Khan	73,523	56.0	22.2	23.6	7.2	29.5	9.5	8.0	0.0	LAB	Reform
334	64	Winchester	Danny Chambers	78,289	72.9	27.2	4.4	51.0	10.5	3.6	3.3	0.0	LIB	LIB
334	64	Guildford	Zöe Franklin	70,734	68.3	31.0	2.2	52.0	8.3	2.7	3.8	0.0	LIB	LIB
336	62	Esher and Walton	Monica Harding	74,042	72.8	31.3	1.9	53.1	8.2	1.9	3.6	0.0	LIB	LIB
339	59	Epsom and Ewell	Helen Maguire	77,530	70.3	34.6	4.0	44.0	10.4	2.5	4.5	0.0	LIB	LIB
343	56	Faversham and Mid Kent	Helen Whately	74,301	62.7	23.9	21.6	8.3	28.1	9.9	8.0	0.0	CON	Reform
345	53	Wokingham	Clive Jones	75,082	71.9	34.5	2.1	48.7	8.7	2.0	4.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
347	52	Ashford	Sojan Joseph	76,212	61.6	21.0	24.8	6.1	31.6	9.3	7.1	0.0	LAB	Reform
350	48	Beaconsfield	Joy Morrissey	72,751	65.6	34.1	14.9	17.7	22.0	6.9	4.3	0.0	CON	CON
350	48	Buckinghamshire Mid	Greg Smith	75,415	71.5	32.0	15.7	18.3	22.8	7.2	4.0	0.0	CON	CON
351	48	Havant	Alan Mak	72,346	58.3	22.1	22.1	7.6	29.3	9.4	9.3	0.0	CON	Reform
352	46	Witney	Charlie Maynard	75,448	67.0	29.0	9.0	36.1	16.2	4.7	5.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
353	46	Isle of Wight West	Richard Quigley	55,406	61.9	22.7	25.0	8.2	32.3	6.2	5.6	0.0	LAB	Reform
353	45	Henley and Thame	Freddie Van Mierlo	73,749	72.1	30.4	6.8	40.9	14.3	3.4	4.2	0.0	LIB	LIB
354	44	Spelthorne	Lincoln Jopp	73,782	62.6	27.7	17.0	15.0	24.6	9.2	6.6	0.0	CON	CON
355	43	Eastleigh	Liz Jarvis	69,965	66.3	26.7	13.2	27.6	20.9	5.9	5.6	0.0	LIB	LIB
356	42	Farnham and Bordon	Gregory Stafford	75,918	69.8	30.3	14.7	20.4	22.7	7.1	4.9	0.0	CON	CON
356	42	Chesham and Amersham	Sarah Green	74,889	72.7	38.3	2.2	43.8	10.2	1.9	3.6	0.0	LIB	LIB
358	40	Hampshire North East	Alex Brewer	76,975	72.2	33.4	10.8	28.3	18.8	4.8	3.8	0.0	LIB	CON
358	40	Lewes	James MacCleary	76,166	69.8	21.0	11.2	38.6	19.3	6.2	3.7	0.0	LIB	LIB
360	38	Aylesbury	Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith	79,169	63.1	27.8	18.0	15.8	26.2	6.5	5.7	0.0	LAB	CON
360	38	Horsham	John Milne	79,150	70.1	35.8	3.0	43.3	11.3	2.0	4.7	0.0	LIB	LIB
361	38	Dartford	Jim Dickson	75,426	59.0	28.5	21.2	5.8	29.7	7.9	6.8	0.0	LAB	Reform
362	36	Runnymede and Weybridge	Ben Spencer	73,610	65.6	35.0	15.5	13.1	24.2	6.8	5.4	0.0	CON	CON
365	34	Folkestone and Hythe	Tony Vaughan	70,056	61.7	7.1	36.3	1.5	45.2	2.3	7.6	0.0	LAB	Reform
367	31	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	78,629	64.6	33.8	17.2	10.4	26.2	7.1	5.3	0.0	CON	CON
367	31	Surrey Heath	Al Pinkerton	71,934	66.4	33.8	3.9	41.8	13.1	2.5	5.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
373	26	Rochester and Strood	Lauren Rae Edwards	74,257	57.4	21.6	22.7	6.0	32.4	8.4	8.9	0.0	LAB	Reform
373	25	Dorking and Horley	Chris Coghlan	71,850	69.5	27.7	9.3	34.3	19.1	4.9	4.7	0.0	LIB	LIB
374	24	Newbury	Lee Raymond James Dillon	71,986	68.0	33.1	6.5	34.5	16.9	4.2	4.9	0.0	LIB	LIB
376	22	Maidstone and Malling	Helen Grant	76,449	60.7	28.0	16.6	12.1	27.4	9.2	6.7	0.0	CON	CON
380	19	Chatham and Aylesford	Tristan Osborne	75,109	54.4	22.2	21.2	6.9	32.1	8.8	8.7	0.0	LAB	Reform
381	17	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	71,871	69.6	32.4	11.1	22.6	22.5	6.4	5.0	0.0	CON	CON
381	17	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	71,965	69.6	30.5	12.5	22.1	23.9	6.2	4.8	0.0	CON	CON
382	16	Godalming and Ash	Jeremy Hunt	74,168	73.7	33.8	9.4	26.0	21.0	5.0	4.8	0.0	CON	CON
384	15	Portsmouth North	Amanda Martin	70,446	59.0	25.3	21.6	6.3	33.5	5.4	8.1	0.0	LAB	Reform
388	10	Eastbourne	Josh Babarinde	72,592	62.8	21.2	9.2	38.4	22.0	4.4	4.8	0.0	LIB	LIB
390	9	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Ali Griffiths	77,565	61.7	29.4	17.4	8.8	30.5	6.2	7.8	0.0	CON	Reform
392	6	Chichester	Jessica Brown-Fuller	78,374	66.3	21.0	10.1	36.2	23.4	4.4	4.8	0.0	LIB	LIB
393	6	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Kevin McKenna	79,067	51.9	21.2	21.3	5.6	35.4	7.3	9.3	0.0	LAB	Reform
394	4	Hamble Valley	Paul Holmes	80,537	67.1	37.8	11.0	13.4	27.0	5.2	5.6	0.0	CON	CON
394	4	Tonbridge	Tom Tugendhat	72,799	69.1	41.9	12.0	4.4	29.0	7.9	4.8	0.0	CON	CON
395	3	Arundel and South Downs	Andrew Griffith	77,969	70.2	40.7	12.2	7.4	29.4	5.7	4.6	0.0	CON	CON
395	3	Herne Bay and Sandwich	Roger Gale	77,841	62.7	37.8	13.9	4.1	32.4	5.8	5.9	0.0	CON	CON
395	3	Surrey East	Claire Coutinho	73,307	67.1	41.5	11.3	6.4	29.9	5.0	6.0	0.0	CON	CON
395	3	Sussex Weald	Nus Ghani	72,897	67.5	38.9	11.5	8.6	30.2	5.0	5.8	0.0	CON	CON
395	3	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,644	67.5	44.6	10.1	6.4	30.6	3.9	4.4	0.0	CON	CON
395	3	Fareham and Waterlooville	Suella Braverman	77,691	64.5	44.0	9.3	6.7	30.7	3.9	5.3	0.0	CON	CON
395	3	Weald of Kent	Katie Jane Lotte Lam	75,988	66.7	44.6	10.3	3.6	32.1	4.7	4.7	0.0	CON	CON
395	3	Sevenoaks	Laura Trott	73,708	67.7	44.7	7.8	9.0	29.7	3.9	5.0	0.0	CON	CON
395	3	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,261	60.4	43.2	9.8	4.0	32.8	3.9	6.5	0.0	CON	CON
395	3	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	70,618	64.0	43.5	9.0	5.5	32.2	4.0	5.6	0.0	CON	CON
395	3	Isle of Wight East	Joe Robertson	55,855	61.0	40.5	9.2	4.7	32.9	6.7	5.8	0.0	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.