South East: Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	30.6%	30	23.4%	6	8	-2	28
LAB	24.5%	36	16.2%	0	33	-33	3
LIB	21.9%	24	18.5%	0	4	-4	20
Reform	14.0%	0	27.5%	36	0	+36	36
Green	6.9%	1	12.5%	3	0	+3	4
Other	2.1%	0	2.0%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Earley and Woodley' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Isle of Wight East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bognor Regis and Littlehampton (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Milton Keynes Central (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB Seats	Reform Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
12	375	Earley and Woodley	Yuan Yang	73,548	62.4	27.2	26.4	13.7	16.7	14.2	1.2	0.6	LAB	CON
20	367	Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven	Chris Ward	68,784	59.2	13.6	27.5	8.5	18.8	28.2	2.1	1.1	LAB	Green
23	364	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	71,845	54.8	11.7	25.1	11.0	17.1	29.7	2.9	2.5	LAB	Green
29	359	Reading Central	Matt Rodda	73,600	61.5	15.3	26.0	11.0	18.7	25.6	2.7	0.7	LAB	LAB
29	358	Hove and Portslade	Peter Kyle	74,063	70.1	10.4	28.6	7.9	21.5	28.8	1.6	1.2	LAB	Green
31	357	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	71,171	66.4	10.4	38.5	5.4	32.3	10.9	1.9	0.6	LAB	LAB
50	337	Brighton Pavilion	Siân Berry	74,786	70.0	8.0	14.0	6.3	10.6	58.7	1.8	0.6	Green	Green
61	327	Milton Keynes Central	Emily Darlington	81,078	58.9	21.0	25.5	12.2	23.4	16.0	1.2	0.7	LAB	LAB
73	315	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tom Rutland	74,738	65.7	12.0	35.6	5.5	36.1	8.6	1.6	0.6	LAB	Reform
76	312	Milton Keynes North	Chris Curtis	70,709	65.0	22.4	24.6	10.8	25.4	15.2	1.1	0.5	LAB	Reform
82	305	East Grinstead and Uckfield	Mims Davies	75,385	66.8	31.4	16.0	18.3	17.9	14.0	1.0	1.3	CON	CON
90	298	Wycombe	Emma Reynolds	73,846	60.4	21.5	20.2	15.8	24.1	13.4	3.4	1.7	LAB	Reform
93	295	Basingstoke	Luke Murphy	78,487	62.4	24.2	22.0	10.6	26.3	15.3	0.9	0.6	LAB	Reform
100	287	Sussex Mid	Alison Bennett	75,969	70.2	22.5	14.2	32.7	19.0	10.3	0.7	0.7	LIB	LIB
102	285	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	71,318	64.5	15.6	12.6	35.2	17.8	17.0	0.9	1.0	LIB	LIB
106	282	Aylesbury	Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith	79,169	63.1	23.0	18.2	21.2	24.0	11.2	1.8	0.5	LAB	Reform
109	279	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	73,711	52.8	12.4	23.8	11.5	29.7	19.9	1.6	1.0	LAB	Reform
114	273	Maidenhead	Joshua Peter Reynolds	75,687	66.5	36.5	2.9	46.6	9.3	3.2	0.7	0.9	LIB	LIB
119	268	Winchester	Danny Chambers	78,289	72.9	26.9	4.5	50.0	11.0	6.4	0.5	0.7	LIB	LIB
122	266	Banbury	Sean Woodcock	73,193	65.8	21.1	23.3	12.1	30.0	11.0	1.6	1.0	LAB	Reform
124	264	Reading West and Mid Berkshire	Olivia Bailey	68,786	67.7	22.2	21.9	14.1	28.6	10.9	1.4	0.9	LAB	Reform
127	261	Aldershot	Alex Baker	78,569	61.8	21.9	22.4	12.0	29.5	12.6	1.0	0.6	LAB	Reform
129	258	Guildford	Zöe Franklin	70,734	68.3	28.4	5.7	43.3	12.9	8.6	0.5	0.6	LIB	LIB
131	256	Reigate	Rebecca Paul	77,101	68.9	31.1	18.0	12.0	25.4	12.5	0.8	0.3	CON	CON
131	256	Woking	Will Forster	72,977	66.0	22.5	11.2	35.5	18.7	10.7	0.6	0.7	LIB	LIB
131	256	Esher and Walton	Monica Harding	74,042	72.8	33.2	2.0	50.5	9.7	3.8	0.4	0.5	LIB	LIB
135	252	Bicester and Woodstock	Calum Alexander Miller	74,350	67.5	24.2	12.8	30.2	20.7	10.6	0.7	0.7	LIB	LIB
139	248	Didcot and Wantage	Olly Glover	80,689	67.8	23.6	13.1	29.3	21.2	11.4	0.7	0.7	LIB	LIB
151	236	Tunbridge Wells	Mike Martin	78,738	68.9	23.0	12.0	32.0	21.2	10.5	0.6	0.7	LIB	LIB
159	228	Chesham and Amersham	Sarah Green	74,889	72.7	28.3	9.5	34.4	19.2	7.1	1.2	0.3	LIB	LIB
162	226	Worthing West	Beccy Cooper	77,038	66.2	21.7	22.5	9.8	32.3	11.7	1.5	0.6	LAB	Reform
165	222	Wokingham	Clive Jones	75,082	71.9	23.0	9.9	36.6	20.3	8.6	0.9	0.7	LIB	LIB
166	222	Buckingham and Bletchley	Callum Anderson	74,832	63.7	21.0	21.1	11.8	31.6	12.2	1.6	0.7	LAB	Reform
166	221	Farnham and Bordon	Gregory Stafford	75,918	69.8	30.5	13.0	21.5	23.6	10.6	0.5	0.3	CON	CON
168	219	Buckinghamshire Mid	Greg Smith	75,415	71.5	28.3	13.5	23.9	24.2	8.9	0.8	0.4	CON	CON
169	218	Godalming and Ash	Jeremy Hunt	74,168	73.7	37.0	5.0	36.9	15.9	4.2	0.6	0.4	CON	CON
171	217	Hastings and Rye	Helena Dollimore	75,939	60.6	18.0	21.0	9.1	32.0	17.1	2.2	0.7	LAB	Reform
174	214	Crawley	Peter Lamb	75,569	60.4	19.9	21.1	8.5	32.2	14.6	3.1	0.6	LAB	Reform
177	211	Slough	Tan Dhesi	81,512	53.1	14.0	14.9	10.4	26.2	14.0	20.6	0.0	LAB	Reform
177	210	Lewes	James MacCleary	76,166	69.8	23.5	8.0	36.1	19.3	11.7	0.6	0.7	LIB	LIB
184	203	Epsom and Ewell	Helen Maguire	77,530	70.3	26.5	12.8	23.2	24.9	11.2	0.6	0.7	LIB	CON
184	203	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	71,871	69.6	29.6	11.0	26.8	23.2	8.2	0.8	0.4	CON	CON
185	203	Southampton Test	Satvir Kaur	65,520	54.6	13.5	20.2	8.6	32.4	22.2	2.1	1.0	LAB	Reform
186	201	Beaconsfield	Joy Morrissey	72,751	65.6	30.5	12.9	21.6	25.3	8.6	0.6	0.4	CON	CON
187	200	Newbury	Lee Raymond James Dillon	71,986	68.0	27.5	11.0	27.3	23.5	9.2	0.8	0.6	LIB	CON
189	199	Southampton Itchen	Darren Paffey	68,379	55.7	16.3	21.8	9.2	34.5	15.2	2.4	0.6	LAB	Reform
189	198	Hampshire North East	Alex Brewer	76,975	72.2	32.4	10.6	23.7	23.4	9.1	0.5	0.4	LIB	CON
193	194	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	71,965	69.6	28.7	11.4	26.1	24.5	8.1	0.8	0.5	CON	CON
193	194	Henley and Thame	Freddie Van Mierlo	73,749	72.1	25.1	9.9	31.5	23.0	8.6	0.8	1.0	LIB	LIB
195	192	Windsor	Jack Rankin	73,334	61.7	37.8	13.4	11.9	26.6	8.7	0.7	0.8	CON	CON
197	190	Horsham	John Milne	79,150	70.1	23.7	11.9	29.8	25.2	7.7	0.9	0.9	LIB	LIB
198	190	Eastleigh	Liz Jarvis	69,965	66.3	22.4	13.6	25.1	27.2	9.5	1.1	1.0	LIB	Reform
207	181	Bracknell	Peter Swallow	71,656	61.2	20.6	20.2	11.1	34.5	11.3	1.4	0.8	LAB	Reform
213	174	Hamble Valley	Paul Holmes	80,537	67.1	30.9	13.0	19.3	27.8	7.7	0.8	0.4	CON	CON
213	174	Eastbourne	Josh Babarinde	72,592	62.8	18.2	8.3	39.9	23.3	8.3	1.3	0.7	LIB	LIB
231	157	Thanet East	Polly Billington	74,940	57.0	15.5	22.8	6.6	38.7	13.5	2.1	0.7	LAB	Reform
235	153	Gillingham and Rainham	Naushabah Khan	73,523	56.0	21.5	18.8	9.9	34.9	13.0	1.2	0.6	LAB	Reform
239	148	Witney	Charlie Maynard	75,448	67.0	23.1	10.0	29.6	26.5	8.9	1.1	0.9	LIB	LIB
241	146	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	78,629	64.6	37.1	13.6	10.4	30.2	7.3	1.0	0.4	CON	CON
243	145	Spelthorne	Lincoln Jopp	73,782	62.6	28.7	14.0	15.5	30.7	9.8	0.7	0.5	CON	Reform
243	144	Dorking and Horley	Chris Coghlan	71,850	69.5	22.0	9.8	31.6	26.6	8.3	0.9	0.7	LIB	LIB
254	134	Dover and Deal	Mike Tapp	76,406	62.5	16.2	21.8	9.3	39.3	10.9	1.7	0.7	LAB	Reform
257	130	Surrey Heath	Al Pinkerton	71,934	66.4	23.3	9.2	31.8	27.0	7.2	0.8	0.7	LIB	LIB
258	129	Isle of Wight West	Richard Quigley	55,406	61.9	33.4	14.8	7.5	32.8	10.3	0.8	0.4	LAB	CON
262	126	Sevenoaks	Laura Trott	73,708	67.7	27.2	11.7	22.6	30.2	7.3	0.7	0.4	CON	Reform
273	114	Runnymede and Weybridge	Ben Spencer	73,610	65.6	42.7	10.1	10.3	29.6	6.3	0.7	0.4	CON	CON
287	101	Chatham and Aylesford	Tristan Osborne	75,109	54.4	21.5	17.2	9.6	37.8	12.1	1.1	0.7	LAB	Reform
291	96	Fareham and Waterlooville	Suella Braverman	77,691	64.5	34.8	12.2	12.6	32.9	6.1	1.0	0.4	CON	CON
295	93	Folkestone and Hythe	Tony Vaughan	70,056	61.7	19.7	18.0	7.8	39.4	12.7	1.8	0.7	LAB	Reform
297	91	Dartford	Jim Dickson	75,426	59.0	23.2	15.8	10.1	37.2	11.5	1.7	0.5	LAB	Reform
299	89	Gravesham	Lauren Sullivan	73,088	59.2	20.2	19.2	7.5	40.9	10.2	1.6	0.5	LAB	Reform
300	87	Arundel and South Downs	Andrew Griffith	77,969	70.2	46.8	7.9	7.5	29.9	6.6	0.9	0.4	CON	CON
305	83	Bexhill and Battle	Kieran Mullan	72,209	66.1	30.3	14.9	7.7	37.3	7.3	1.1	1.5	CON	Reform
310	78	Rochester and Strood	Lauren Rae Edwards	74,257	57.4	26.5	16.0	5.9	38.8	11.7	0.7	0.5	LAB	Reform
319	68	Tonbridge	Tom Tugendhat	72,799	69.1	45.9	7.7	5.1	31.3	8.4	1.0	0.6	CON	CON
321	66	Maidstone and Malling	Helen Grant	76,449	60.7	41.1	8.8	8.0	32.7	7.9	0.9	0.7	CON	CON
321	66	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,644	67.5	43.1	9.4	8.0	33.4	5.0	0.8	0.4	CON	CON
322	66	Portsmouth North	Amanda Martin	70,446	59.0	25.1	16.6	7.5	40.6	8.7	1.1	0.5	LAB	Reform
325	62	Surrey East	Claire Coutinho	73,307	67.1	44.6	8.8	6.1	33.1	6.2	0.6	0.5	CON	CON
326	62	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Ali Griffiths	77,565	61.7	21.7	16.8	10.8	41.2	7.6	1.2	0.7	CON	Reform
338	50	Faversham and Mid Kent	Helen Whately	74,301	62.7	26.3	14.1	8.1	39.6	10.1	1.2	0.6	CON	Reform
342	46	Havant	Alan Mak	72,346	58.3	20.7	16.7	7.9	42.2	10.2	1.7	0.5	CON	Reform
343	45	Herne Bay and Sandwich	Roger Gale	77,841	62.7	33.9	13.4	5.4	38.9	7.1	0.9	0.2	CON	Reform
343	44	Chichester	Jessica Brown-Fuller	78,374	66.3	14.8	6.0	40.4	31.7	5.6	0.9	0.6	LIB	LIB
343	44	Ashford	Sojan Joseph	76,212	61.6	38.7	9.5	4.7	35.4	9.9	1.0	0.8	LAB	CON
348	39	Sussex Weald	Nus Ghani	72,897	67.5	35.7	8.6	11.2	35.3	7.1	1.1	1.1	CON	CON
348	39	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	70,618	64.0	43.0	8.4	6.8	35.3	5.2	0.8	0.5	CON	CON
351	36	Weald of Kent	Katie Jane Lotte Lam	75,988	66.7	43.8	8.2	5.2	35.6	6.1	0.8	0.3	CON	CON
353	34	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,261	60.4	41.7	9.8	4.9	37.8	4.3	1.0	0.5	CON	CON
369	19	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Kevin McKenna	79,067	51.9	29.8	11.6	5.0	42.9	8.4	0.9	1.4	LAB	Reform
371	17	Isle of Wight East	Joe Robertson	55,855	61.0	33.4	7.4	6.4	40.3	10.5	1.4	0.6	CON	Reform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.