South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	54.0%	81	28.4%	0	54	-54	27
LAB	22.1%	8	35.8%	44	0	+44	52
LIB	18.2%	1	14.9%	10	0	+10	11
Reform	0.3%	0	12.8%	0	0	+0	0
Green	3.9%	1	6.3%	0	0	+0	1
Other	1.4%	0	1.8%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Chesham and Amersham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Banbury (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Thanet East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
46	512	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	71,602	63.0	8.7	61.4	6.0	7.9	13.4	0.0	2.6	LAB	LAB
50	508	Hove and Portslade	Peter Kyle	74,313	75.9	13.8	65.1	3.7	9.1	6.9	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
81	477	Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven	Lloyd Russell-Moyle	70,996	69.6	17.5	62.0	2.7	9.9	6.5	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
108	450	Southampton Test	Alan Whitehead	70,117	64.2	18.0	58.7	3.7	11.0	7.0	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
148	410	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	74,186	63.9	16.4	53.4	9.9	12.1	5.9	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
153	405	Southampton Itchen	Royston Smith	72,298	65.6	20.8	57.0	2.8	13.0	4.9	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
158	400	Reading Central	Matt Rodda	71,434	71.3	20.8	56.3	3.8	7.5	10.0	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
192	366	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	75,633	75.0	23.8	56.2	3.9	8.8	5.7	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
204	353	Brighton Pavilion	Caroline Lucas	77,893	73.4	6.4	37.8	2.7	4.5	46.9	0.0	1.6	Green	Green
225	333	Milton Keynes North	Ben Everitt	70,484	68.0	23.3	52.9	4.7	12.1	5.2	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
228	330	Thanet East	Craig Mackinlay	74,214	66.0	23.2	52.6	2.8	13.9	6.2	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
237	321	Slough	Tan Dhesi	77,608	58.8	18.4	47.2	6.9	12.4	12.1	0.0	3.0	LAB	LAB
240	318	Hastings and Rye	Sally-Ann Hart	76,846	67.5	24.6	53.2	4.0	10.8	5.6	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
242	316	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tim Loughton	75,196	70.7	23.8	52.4	4.1	12.6	5.6	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
284	274	Crawley	Henry Smith	74,206	67.2	25.9	50.4	3.2	12.9	5.9	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
291	267	Milton Keynes Central	Iain Stewart	76,559	67.3	26.3	50.4	5.1	9.5	6.3	0.0	2.4	CON	LAB
300	258	Basingstoke	Maria Miller	77,260	66.4	25.2	48.0	5.7	13.1	5.9	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
317	241	Dover and Deal	Natalie Elphicke	76,985	66.4	27.5	49.3	3.6	14.2	4.3	0.0	1.2	CON	LAB
332	226	Banbury	Victoria Prentis	69,699	70.5	26.8	46.8	7.3	12.4	5.0	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
338	220	Buckingham and Bletchley	Unknown (new seat)	73,799	70.8	27.4	45.9	6.6	13.4	4.6	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
350	208	Aylesbury	Rob Butler	76,209	71.4	23.9	40.6	14.0	13.4	5.5	0.0	2.6	CON	LAB
353	205	Isle of Wight West	Unknown (new seat)	55,555	65.9	25.8	41.9	4.5	15.9	10.4	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
355	203	Worthing West	Peter Bottomley	76,124	70.2	29.0	45.0	6.1	13.6	5.1	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
356	202	Portsmouth North	Penny Mordaunt	71,298	64.4	24.5	40.3	8.1	19.4	5.4	0.0	2.3	CON	LAB
358	200	Isle of Wight East	Bob Seely	57,470	65.9	26.0	41.6	4.7	18.6	7.4	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
364	194	Wycombe	Steve Baker	71,214	70.1	28.2	43.2	7.7	11.2	6.7	0.0	3.0	CON	LAB
375	183	Folkestone and Hythe	Damian Collins	69,793	66.8	29.1	42.4	5.0	13.1	9.1	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
376	182	Bracknell	James Sunderland	69,872	69.1	31.1	44.3	5.2	12.7	5.3	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
377	181	Earley and Woodley	Unknown (new seat)	70,472	72.6	29.0	42.2	10.5	9.8	6.0	0.0	2.5	CON	LAB
379	179	Reading West and Mid Berkshire	Alok Sharma	69,675	69.6	29.5	42.4	9.4	12.1	5.1	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
381	177	Rochester and Strood	Kelly Tolhurst	71,774	63.3	28.4	40.9	4.6	18.8	5.4	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
387	171	Dartford	Gareth Johnson	71,324	65.7	28.8	40.8	6.1	16.7	5.7	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
393	165	Chichester	Gillian Keegan	76,286	70.8	26.1	37.3	15.2	14.2	5.5	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
395	163	Windsor	Adam Afriyie	73,998	69.6	28.8	39.8	9.3	13.8	5.8	0.0	2.5	CON	LAB
396	162	Gillingham and Rainham	Rehman Chishti	73,549	62.5	30.0	40.6	4.8	17.2	5.5	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
397	161	Aldershot	Leo Docherty	77,531	66.6	30.0	40.7	8.2	14.0	5.4	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
408	150	Gravesham	Adam Holloway	73,240	64.9	31.1	39.9	4.3	17.2	5.9	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
414	144	Ashford	Damian Green	73,390	67.0	29.6	37.5	6.2	15.0	9.8	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
416	142	Reigate	Crispin Blunt	75,944	71.9	30.4	38.1	10.3	11.5	8.0	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
419	139	Didcot and Wantage	David Johnston	73,642	74.0	24.4	31.8	27.7	10.8	3.8	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
425	133	Spelthorne	Kwasi Kwarteng	70,929	69.8	28.7	35.3	10.5	16.6	6.7	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
426	132	Maidstone and Malling	Helen Grant	72,955	68.0	27.1	33.4	15.2	16.2	6.0	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
438	120	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	75,968	70.8	28.0	33.1	15.0	16.1	5.6	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
439	119	Surrey East	Claire Coutinho	72,655	71.8	30.6	35.5	12.0	15.4	4.7	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
444	114	Fareham and Waterlooville	Suella Braverman	76,845	72.8	28.1	31.8	15.8	16.8	5.3	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
445	113	Bicester and Woodstock	Unknown (new seat)	70,137	72.3	27.0	30.7	24.6	11.8	4.4	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
458	100	Sussex Weald	Nus Ghani	69,515	73.2	29.7	31.8	13.4	14.8	8.3	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
459	99	Chatham and Aylesford	Tracey Crouch	74,212	60.9	35.2	37.2	4.0	15.7	6.4	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
461	97	Hamble Valley	Unknown (new seat)	76,428	71.7	28.9	30.4	18.6	15.2	4.8	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
461	96	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	71,526	75.1	21.3	22.7	43.4	7.6	3.6	0.0	1.4	LIB	LIB
463	95	Sevenoaks	Laura Trott	73,255	70.6	29.7	31.0	15.1	16.3	5.4	0.0	2.4	CON	LAB
464	94	Epsom and Ewell	Chris Grayling	77,463	73.6	30.1	31.3	19.3	13.9	4.0	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
467	91	Herne Bay and Sandwich	Roger Gale	75,704	66.7	35.0	35.5	5.0	16.0	6.9	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
472	86	Arundel and South Downs	Andrew Griffith	76,681	74.2	30.9	31.0	13.0	12.4	10.8	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
472	85	Horsham	Jeremy Quin	76,767	73.0	27.7	27.6	28.2	11.6	3.6	0.0	1.3	CON	LIB
475	83	Sussex Mid	Mims Davies	72,208	74.0	28.9	28.5	26.9	9.2	4.9	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
476	82	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,541	65.9	33.5	33.0	8.4	16.4	6.6	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
481	77	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Nick Gibb	76,860	66.6	34.2	33.2	7.2	17.4	6.1	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
481	76	Eastleigh	Paul Holmes	69,813	72.5	25.2	24.1	33.9	12.2	3.0	0.0	1.5	CON	LIB
485	73	Runnymede and Weybridge	Ben Spencer	74,090	70.6	31.6	29.8	20.5	12.8	4.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
487	71	Tunbridge Wells	Greg Clark	74,822	73.0	30.8	28.9	24.3	12.0	2.8	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
489	69	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	69,715	73.9	30.7	28.8	18.1	14.2	5.9	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
490	68	Faversham and Kent Mid	Helen Whately	71,738	67.9	35.8	33.6	6.3	14.6	7.9	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
493	65	Henley and Thame	John Howell	70,107	76.7	29.1	26.8	26.3	10.2	6.1	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
494	64	Bexhill and Battle	Huw Merriman	70,305	71.8	35.4	33.1	7.1	16.0	6.7	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
497	61	Hampshire North East	Ranil Jayawardena	75,361	74.3	32.1	29.6	15.5	15.8	4.7	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
499	59	East Grinstead and Uckfield	Unknown (new seat)	72,092	73.8	32.9	30.2	12.4	13.9	8.7	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
500	58	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Gordon Henderson	76,885	61.2	36.7	34.0	3.6	18.1	6.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
501	56	Dorking and Horley	Paul Beresford	70,013	75.1	27.8	25.0	29.4	12.0	4.2	0.0	1.6	CON	LIB
504	54	Havant	Alan Mak	72,102	63.7	35.5	32.4	7.1	16.5	6.6	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
506	52	Wokingham	John Redwood	70,557	72.8	30.3	26.6	27.4	10.5	3.6	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
507	51	Buckinghamshire Mid	Greg Smith	72,601	73.9	33.4	29.6	14.5	15.3	5.0	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
511	47	Witney	Robert Courts	70,019	73.3	33.0	28.5	23.0	10.7	3.6	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
517	40	Winchester	Steve Brine	77,307	76.6	27.3	22.0	36.2	10.0	3.1	0.0	1.4	CON	LIB
519	39	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	73,549	69.1	35.6	29.8	10.2	15.6	6.7	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
520	38	Woking	Jonathan Lord	71,024	71.5	30.6	24.8	29.0	9.5	4.3	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
523	34	Newbury	Laura Farris	71,439	71.9	28.6	21.9	33.0	11.2	4.1	0.0	1.2	CON	LIB
527	31	Tonbridge	Tom Tugendhat	72,745	71.4	36.7	29.7	7.0	12.1	12.6	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
528	30	Maidenhead	Theresa May	72,602	73.2	33.3	26.1	24.0	10.9	4.4	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
529	28	Guildford	Angela Richardson	71,286	75.7	30.0	22.3	32.2	9.9	3.4	0.0	2.2	CON	LIB
531	27	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	73,616	74.7	31.4	23.3	29.7	11.5	2.9	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
533	25	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	70,868	71.0	37.2	28.6	9.6	14.9	7.9	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
538	20	Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	70,526	72.1	32.8	23.5	26.3	12.3	3.8	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
539	19	Godalming and Ash	Unknown (new seat)	71,232	75.2	31.8	22.5	30.5	11.2	2.9	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
540	17	Eastbourne	Caroline Ansell	73,000	69.5	26.4	16.8	41.0	11.8	2.5	0.0	1.5	CON	LIB
543	15	Farnham and Bordon	Jeremy Hunt	72,663	75.6	32.8	22.8	28.4	12.3	2.6	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
546	11	Esher and Walton	Dominic Raab	72,783	77.1	31.6	20.7	33.9	9.6	2.7	0.0	1.6	CON	LIB
547	10	Lewes	Maria Caulfield	74,728	75.8	30.7	19.1	34.1	8.8	6.1	0.0	1.3	CON	LIB
551	7	Beaconsfield	Joy Morrissey	71,573	74.5	34.9	22.6	22.5	12.6	5.2	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
556	2	Weald of Kent	Unknown (new seat)	70,125	67.6	41.9	27.5	6.5	15.5	6.7	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
557	0	Chesham and Amersham	Cheryl Gillan	73,642	75.9	35.2	14.1	38.4	7.1	3.7	0.0	1.6	CON	LIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.