South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	52.8%	50	25.6%	0	44	-44	6
LAB	23.4%	7	34.4%	28	1	+27	34
LIB	18.2%	1	18.6%	16	0	+16	17
Reform	0.4%	0	13.6%	0	0	+0	0
Green	3.8%	0	6.2%	1	0	+1	1
Other	1.6%	0	1.6%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Honiton and Sidmouth, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Plymouth Moor View (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Filton and Bradley Stoke (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
76	482	Bristol East	Kerry McCarthy	75,476	71.4	11.9	57.1	6.0	10.4	12.9	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
83	475	Exeter	Ben Bradshaw	72,928	68.5	14.5	58.8	2.9	9.6	12.7	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
93	465	Bristol South	Karin Smyth	74,269	65.6	13.3	56.1	5.6	10.7	12.6	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
107	451	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Luke Pollard	73,824	68.3	18.1	58.8	3.1	12.6	6.0	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
146	412	Bristol North West	Darren Jones	76,243	73.6	19.1	56.3	5.7	8.7	8.4	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
149	408	Bristol Central	Thangam Debbonaire	69,801	76.1	3.8	40.4	2.3	2.8	49.6	0.0	1.2	LAB	Green
178	380	Bristol North East	Unknown (new seat)	69,495	71.5	22.1	55.7	3.3	10.2	7.3	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
214	344	Swindon South	Robert Buckland	72,559	69.0	24.2	54.5	3.4	12.2	4.3	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
226	332	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Jack Lopresti	73,358	72.5	22.9	52.4	5.5	12.4	4.9	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
233	325	Stroud	Siobhan Baillie	76,249	77.8	23.5	52.7	3.5	9.8	8.6	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
241	317	Camborne and Redruth	George Eustice	73,101	72.3	21.1	49.6	6.8	15.7	4.7	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
258	300	Gloucester	Richard Graham	76,123	66.5	21.8	49.4	6.5	15.1	5.1	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
261	297	Bournemouth West	Conor Burns	73,342	62.2	20.4	47.2	7.4	15.0	7.9	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
270	288	Bournemouth East	Tobias Ellwood	74,219	66.5	22.7	49.0	5.7	13.4	7.4	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
311	247	Truro and Falmouth	Cherilyn Mackrory	72,935	76.8	25.2	47.4	7.7	11.9	5.7	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
333	225	Plymouth Moor View	Johnny Mercer	73,457	64.0	24.7	44.6	4.9	19.3	5.0	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
343	215	Weston-super-Mare	John Penrose	69,967	67.4	26.1	43.8	8.2	15.9	4.6	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
344	214	Somerset North	Liam Fox	73,346	77.4	26.7	44.0	8.4	12.8	6.3	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
359	199	Somerset North East and Hanham	Jacob Rees-Mogg	72,940	74.2	29.5	45.1	6.5	12.9	4.6	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
363	195	Devon Central	Mel Stride	73,137	77.5	25.7	40.8	12.5	13.0	6.4	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
370	188	St Austell and Newquay	Steve Double	74,107	69.8	26.0	39.8	9.8	18.2	4.5	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
374	184	Swindon North	Justin Tomlinson	72,058	66.9	28.9	42.2	5.4	16.2	5.6	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
378	180	Dorset South	Richard Drax	77,420	69.5	24.7	37.7	11.1	17.9	6.6	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
385	173	Forest of Dean	Mark Harper	71,437	72.1	27.1	39.4	4.0	15.0	12.8	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
406	152	Poole	Robert Syms	71,928	68.1	25.6	34.6	13.7	19.0	5.0	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
409	149	Salisbury	John Glen	69,961	71.9	28.9	37.6	13.3	13.8	4.8	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
410	148	Bridgwater	Ian Liddell-Grainger	71,290	69.1	28.6	36.8	12.6	16.5	4.0	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
417	141	Tewkesbury	Laurence Robertson	72,556	72.4	27.8	35.3	16.1	13.9	5.4	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
421	137	Devon South West	Gary Streeter	75,337	73.6	28.0	35.3	12.1	17.1	5.5	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
424	134	Wiltshire South West	Andrew Murrison	71,331	70.6	25.9	32.7	15.5	18.3	5.4	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
441	117	Cornwall South East	Sheryll Murray	71,359	74.7	27.7	32.3	14.8	18.6	4.7	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
448	110	Cotswolds North	Unknown (new seat)	70,809	74.8	28.2	31.4	16.9	15.4	6.2	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
448	109	Bath	Wera Hobhouse	73,515	76.9	14.6	17.6	55.0	8.2	3.3	0.0	1.3	LIB	LIB
453	105	Torridge and Tavistock	Geoffrey Cox	74,621	74.3	28.1	30.4	14.8	19.4	5.5	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
457	101	Torbay	Kevin Foster	76,019	67.3	23.9	26.0	24.3	19.3	4.5	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
460	98	Devon South	Anthony Mangnall	72,090	74.6	26.4	28.3	27.5	13.2	3.4	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
474	83	Newton Abbot	Anne Marie Morris	72,392	72.5	26.6	26.4	27.5	15.2	3.1	0.0	1.1	CON	LIB
475	82	Frome and East Somerset	Unknown (new seat)	70,040	75.8	27.0	26.6	27.3	11.3	5.9	0.0	1.9	CON	LIB
505	53	Tiverton and Minehead	Unknown (new seat)	71,003	70.2	28.0	24.4	25.6	14.8	5.0	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
508	49	St Ives	Derek Thomas	71,343	74.6	25.0	21.1	34.0	16.2	2.6	0.0	1.2	CON	LIB
508	49	Taunton and Wellington	Rebecca Pow	77,219	71.9	25.3	21.1	36.1	13.5	2.4	0.0	1.5	CON	LIB
512	45	Chippenham	Michelle Donelan	71,341	74.3	27.3	22.7	33.6	12.4	2.9	0.0	1.1	CON	LIB
522	35	Cotswolds South	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	72,683	74.7	29.3	22.8	31.4	12.1	3.4	0.0	1.1	CON	LIB
522	35	Melksham and Devizes	Unknown (new seat)	71,522	72.3	29.7	23.1	29.8	13.3	3.0	0.0	1.1	CON	LIB
529	28	Dorset West	Chris Loder	76,136	74.4	27.8	20.3	35.6	12.0	3.4	0.0	1.0	CON	LIB
529	28	Wells and Mendip Hills	James Heappey	69,509	72.2	29.4	21.6	33.0	11.5	3.5	0.0	1.1	CON	LIB
530	28	Wiltshire East	Danny Kruger	70,844	69.9	37.0	29.1	9.8	15.9	6.2	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
531	26	Devon North	Selaine Saxby	75,860	73.3	27.8	19.5	34.0	14.4	3.2	0.0	1.1	CON	LIB
531	26	Thornbury and Yate	Luke Hall	74,719	75.0	28.0	19.7	37.2	11.9	2.2	0.0	1.0	CON	LIB
540	17	Yeovil	Marcus Fysh	76,056	71.9	27.4	17.5	37.6	13.8	2.6	0.0	1.1	CON	LIB
545	13	Dorset North	Simon Hoare	72,596	73.1	36.5	25.9	14.4	15.8	5.7	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
546	12	Christchurch	Christopher Chope	71,673	72.6	37.2	26.5	10.9	18.3	5.4	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
547	10	Cheltenham	Alex Chalk	76,294	73.2	27.5	16.1	43.5	8.9	2.6	0.0	1.4	CON	LIB
548	10	Exmouth and Exeter East	Simon Jupp	74,902	72.9	38.6	27.0	17.3	12.6	3.3	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
549	8	Cornwall North	Scott Mann	74,608	73.6	27.6	15.9	35.6	17.3	2.3	0.0	1.3	CON	LIB
549	8	Dorset Mid and Poole North	Michael Tomlinson	74,424	74.1	27.7	15.7	37.8	14.6	2.9	0.0	1.3	CON	LIB
556	1	Glastonbury and Somerton	David Warburton	69,925	74.7	26.8	11.8	44.1	9.2	5.5	0.0	2.5	CON	LIB
557	1	Honiton and Sidmouth	Neil Parish	74,523	72.4	35.5	15.4	34.0	10.6	2.7	0.0	1.8	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.