Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	36.1%	12	17.7%	0	11	-11	1
LAB	40.9%	18	49.1%	9	0	+9	27
LIB	6.0%	0	4.4%	0	0	+0	0
Reform	5.4%	0	11.8%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.0%	0	4.2%	0	0	+0	0
Plaid	9.9%	2	11.0%	2	0	+2	4
Other	0.6%	0	1.7%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda and Ogmore, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ynys Mon (Anglesey) (prediction: Plaid), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bridgend (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	Plaid %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
28	530	Rhondda and Ogmore	Chris Bryant	73,521	60.2	6.4	64.0	2.3	12.9	6.0	6.1	2.4	LAB	LAB
40	518	Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney	Nick Smith	70,687	59.6	6.8	60.8	2.9	16.9	5.8	4.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
44	514	Aberafan Maesteg	Stephen Kinnock	69,525	62.8	8.5	61.6	2.9	13.7	6.1	4.7	2.5	LAB	LAB
49	509	Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare	Gerald Jones	74,598	58.0	8.0	59.6	3.3	15.0	5.4	5.8	2.9	LAB	LAB
59	499	Cardiff East	Jo Stevens	75,658	64.9	9.5	58.2	8.8	10.8	8.4	1.3	3.1	LAB	LAB
75	483	Swansea West	Geraint Davies	73,780	60.2	11.8	57.2	6.0	13.4	5.8	3.8	2.0	LAB	LAB
90	468	Pontypridd	Alex Davies-Jones	73,664	62.7	14.0	57.3	2.8	12.9	4.4	6.8	1.9	LAB	LAB
94	464	Neath and Swansea East	Christina Rees	74,090	63.1	11.9	54.4	4.0	13.8	4.5	9.6	1.8	LAB	LAB
102	456	Cardiff West	Kevin Brennan	74,561	67.2	15.9	57.0	4.1	10.2	5.8	5.2	1.7	LAB	LAB
125	433	Cardiff South and Penarth	Stephen Doughty	73,492	65.0	16.4	55.7	5.2	9.9	7.7	3.3	1.8	LAB	LAB
129	429	Caerphilly	Wayne David	70,954	63.2	14.5	53.3	1.8	11.0	3.5	14.4	1.5	LAB	LAB
140	418	Cardiff North	Anna McMorrin	71,374	76.5	20.2	57.8	4.7	9.2	4.9	1.5	1.8	LAB	LAB
156	402	Torfaen	Nick Thomas-Symonds	70,218	61.3	16.4	52.4	3.9	17.6	5.1	3.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
165	393	Newport East	Jessica Morden	75,617	63.3	19.2	54.4	4.1	13.4	5.6	1.7	1.7	LAB	LAB
173	385	Newport West and Islwyn	Chris Evans	75,266	63.5	20.5	54.8	3.2	13.5	4.5	1.8	1.6	LAB	LAB
179	379	Llanelli	Nia Griffith	69,600	64.2	13.6	47.2	1.8	12.1	3.0	21.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
186	372	Gower	Tonia Antoniazzi	76,005	69.6	21.8	54.5	4.3	11.3	4.0	2.5	1.6	LAB	LAB
190	368	Alyn and Deeside	Mark Tami	75,403	68.8	20.8	53.2	3.7	14.5	3.6	2.6	1.5	LAB	LAB
193	365	Vale of Glamorgan	Alun Cairns	70,148	71.6	23.8	56.2	2.0	10.8	5.3	0.7	1.3	CON	LAB
215	343	Bridgend	Jamie Wallis	70,710	65.4	21.8	51.9	3.6	12.8	3.8	4.3	1.7	CON	LAB
236	322	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	Stephen Crabb	76,780	71.2	21.8	50.7	3.8	15.2	3.4	3.5	1.6	CON	LAB
289	269	Clwyd North	David Jones	76,558	67.8	24.7	48.8	3.7	11.9	4.0	5.3	1.7	CON	LAB
298	260	Clwyd East	Rob Roberts	76,518	68.8	25.4	48.5	4.2	13.0	3.5	3.7	1.8	CON	LAB
304	254	Bangor Aberconwy	Robin Millar	70,127	70.5	20.0	42.4	2.6	7.7	2.5	23.6	1.2	CON	LAB
308	250	Monmouthshire	David Davies	72,681	72.5	26.5	48.8	4.9	12.8	4.6	0.8	1.6	CON	LAB
313	245	Wrexham	Sarah Atherton	70,870	67.4	25.9	48.1	3.3	11.4	3.3	6.1	1.8	CON	LAB
339	218	Ynys Mon (Anglesey)	Virginia Crosbie	51,927	70.4	17.3	35.3	1.2	7.5	1.6	35.9	1.1	CON	Plaid
345	213	Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr	Craig Williams	74,118	69.0	24.9	42.0	9.9	15.9	3.5	1.8	2.0	CON	LAB
395	162	Ceredigion Preseli	Ben Lake	74,308	71.1	13.3	24.1	5.9	8.9	2.2	44.3	1.2	Plaid	Plaid
399	158	Carmarthen	Unknown (changed seat)	72,404	71.3	20.0	30.2	1.1	6.0	1.5	40.2	0.9	CON	Plaid
408	149	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Liz Saville Roberts	72,047	68.0	9.0	17.8	0.9	5.3	1.0	65.4	0.6	Plaid	Plaid
513	45	Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	Fay Jones	72,621	72.3	31.7	26.8	23.6	11.4	2.5	2.6	1.4	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.