| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.6% | 15 | 20.4% | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| LAB | 34.0% | 38 | 18.1% | 0 | 34 | -34 | 4 |
| LIB | 8.8% | 2 | 10.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 18.1% | 0 | 34.0% | 38 | 0 | +38 | 38 |
| Green | 6.6% | 1 | 12.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 4.6% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Birmingham Ladywood' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Shropshire North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Hereford and South Herefordshire (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Shrewsbury (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 378 | Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood | 83,693 | 43.7 | 7.1 | 24.5 | 4.0 | 10.1 | 21.3 | 33.0 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 61 | 353 | Coventry South | Zarah Sultana | 76,262 | 56.0 | 6.3 | 46.3 | 2.3 | 37.1 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 63 | 351 | Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western | 76,294 | 64.5 | 15.1 | 33.1 | 9.6 | 24.2 | 13.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 66 | 347 | Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali | 76,936 | 54.1 | 11.4 | 19.3 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 21.1 | 29.2 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 71 | 343 | Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley | 76,633 | 67.3 | 6.3 | 45.3 | 3.9 | 38.9 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 90 | 324 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Kaur Gill | 71,787 | 52.1 | 17.8 | 26.3 | 9.3 | 23.2 | 18.4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 90 | 323 | Birmingham Perry Barr | Ayoub Khan | 76,350 | 49.1 | 11.3 | 19.3 | 3.8 | 16.1 | 18.1 | 31.4 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 101 | 313 | Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi | 75,057 | 56.0 | 5.6 | 42.2 | 2.2 | 42.3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 104 | 310 | Coventry East | Mary Creagh | 75,801 | 48.8 | 6.8 | 39.3 | 2.3 | 39.7 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 114 | 300 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns | 75,678 | 50.8 | 14.3 | 25.1 | 7.7 | 26.1 | 21.0 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 122 | 292 | Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss | 77,851 | 56.1 | 16.7 | 29.1 | 6.3 | 31.4 | 12.8 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 124 | 290 | Worcester | Tom Collins | 74,931 | 61.4 | 11.3 | 33.1 | 6.8 | 35.8 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 136 | 278 | West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes | 74,026 | 49.3 | 5.1 | 40.5 | 1.8 | 44.8 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 142 | 272 | Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan | 72,863 | 48.2 | 13.5 | 24.6 | 6.3 | 29.8 | 20.0 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 155 | 259 | Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips | 73,203 | 49.4 | 13.4 | 18.3 | 8.1 | 25.6 | 18.5 | 16.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 182 | 232 | Telford | Shaun Davies | 73,808 | 55.2 | 5.0 | 38.4 | 1.9 | 48.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 193 | 220 | Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Gavin Williamson | 71,561 | 59.8 | 40.3 | 14.1 | 8.8 | 25.4 | 9.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 201 | 213 | Rugby | John Anthony Slinger | 74,901 | 65.4 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 10.2 | 33.3 | 10.5 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 203 | 210 | Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | 74,923 | 71.2 | 31.9 | 13.8 | 16.7 | 26.5 | 9.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 220 | 194 | Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | 77,473 | 43.1 | 6.4 | 33.1 | 2.0 | 47.1 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 238 | 176 | Stafford | Leigh Ingham | 70,608 | 65.2 | 22.9 | 19.5 | 7.9 | 34.7 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 243 | 171 | Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner | 74,048 | 50.8 | 15.9 | 22.3 | 7.7 | 38.1 | 12.6 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 251 | 163 | Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton | 77,463 | 43.6 | 15.2 | 20.7 | 6.2 | 36.8 | 16.7 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 271 | 143 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz | 75,968 | 49.0 | 17.3 | 14.5 | 4.0 | 32.1 | 15.6 | 16.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 275 | 139 | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne | 77,737 | 43.9 | 13.6 | 15.2 | 5.0 | 33.7 | 16.9 | 15.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 279 | 134 | Worcestershire West | Harriett Baldwin | 79,242 | 69.0 | 30.0 | 9.8 | 17.9 | 28.8 | 11.8 | 1.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 284 | 130 | Lichfield | Dave Robertson | 76,118 | 64.5 | 26.8 | 16.8 | 9.7 | 36.3 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 285 | 129 | Stourbridge | Cat Eccles | 68,311 | 58.4 | 22.5 | 18.1 | 8.4 | 37.7 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 299 | 115 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee | 67,839 | 58.4 | 21.0 | 18.3 | 8.3 | 39.1 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 304 | 110 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell | 73,693 | 47.9 | 14.6 | 20.3 | 5.8 | 41.3 | 13.7 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 309 | 105 | Redditch | Christopher James Bloore | 71,038 | 59.7 | 21.6 | 17.9 | 8.5 | 39.1 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 312 | 102 | Halesowen | Alex Ballinger | 68,549 | 56.3 | 21.6 | 17.3 | 8.1 | 38.7 | 11.2 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 313 | 101 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier | 77,994 | 58.5 | 21.4 | 17.7 | 8.0 | 39.2 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 319 | 95 | Wrekin, The | Mark Pritchard | 78,942 | 63.4 | 26.1 | 14.9 | 9.8 | 37.0 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 326 | 88 | Hereford and South Herefordshire | Jesse Norman | 72,203 | 63.1 | 27.5 | 13.6 | 10.2 | 36.4 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 327 | 86 | Sutton Coldfield | Andrew Mitchell | 74,080 | 65.2 | 43.9 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 32.9 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 328 | 86 | Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling | 71,662 | 57.5 | 20.3 | 17.3 | 6.9 | 40.2 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 329 | 84 | Solihull West and Shirley | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 71,813 | 65.3 | 41.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 31.9 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 333 | 80 | Herefordshire North | Ellie Chowns | 72,797 | 69.2 | 22.5 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 28.7 | 33.2 | 4.3 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 339 | 74 | Stratford-on-Avon | Manuela Perteghella | 75,714 | 69.9 | 19.2 | 6.3 | 35.1 | 30.7 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 340 | 74 | Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams | 69,790 | 51.8 | 16.8 | 19.9 | 7.0 | 44.5 | 9.3 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 344 | 70 | Shropshire South | Stuart Anderson | 76,723 | 67.3 | 23.4 | 9.6 | 23.3 | 34.4 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 351 | 63 | Tamworth | Sarah Edwards | 75,059 | 58.3 | 21.2 | 17.2 | 7.6 | 42.7 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 352 | 61 | Bromsgrove | Bradley Anthony Thomas | 76,468 | 65.9 | 37.3 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 35.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 358 | 56 | Staffordshire Moorlands | Karen Bradley | 69,892 | 62.0 | 29.5 | 14.3 | 6.3 | 40.6 | 7.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 360 | 54 | Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge | 70,715 | 47.1 | 17.5 | 17.9 | 6.3 | 44.5 | 10.5 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 367 | 47 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance | 74,100 | 43.0 | 14.7 | 18.7 | 6.0 | 45.9 | 11.7 | 3.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 375 | 39 | Warwickshire North and Bedworth | Rachel Margaret Taylor | 69,752 | 58.7 | 22.3 | 15.4 | 7.1 | 44.0 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 380 | 33 | Meriden and Solihull East | Saqib Bhatti | 73,659 | 59.8 | 41.6 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 37.1 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 385 | 29 | Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury | 76,974 | 55.8 | 19.6 | 15.8 | 6.3 | 46.0 | 9.5 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 386 | 28 | Dudley | Sonia Kumar | 70,151 | 51.0 | 21.2 | 14.4 | 6.1 | 44.7 | 10.4 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 387 | 27 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner | 68,263 | 60.0 | 33.9 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 41.2 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 390 | 23 | Droitwich and Evesham | Nigel Huddleston | 76,624 | 64.7 | 41.2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 38.3 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 399 | 14 | Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Mike Wood | 71,662 | 63.0 | 41.2 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 40.8 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 401 | 13 | Wyre Forest | Mark Garnier | 77,394 | 58.3 | 35.2 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 42.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 404 | 10 | Aldridge-Brownhills | Wendy Morton | 70,871 | 57.7 | 39.3 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 42.9 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 404 | 9 | Shropshire North | Helen Morgan | 77,594 | 63.9 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 50.3 | 38.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.