West Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	53.4%	43	27.6%	0	33	-33	10
LAB	33.9%	14	42.5%	32	0	+32	46
LIB	7.9%	0	6.8%	1	0	+1	1
Reform	1.4%	0	14.4%	0	0	+0	0
Green	3.0%	0	6.7%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.5%	0	2.0%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Birmingham Ladywood, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Kingswinford and South Staffordshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Rugby (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Coventry South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
42	516	Birmingham Ladywood	Shabana Mahmood	78,301	57.4	5.1	58.3	5.8	8.1	19.0	0.0	3.6	LAB	LAB
98	460	Birmingham Selly Oak	Steve McCabe	81,511	59.9	15.4	56.8	4.5	11.1	10.5	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
99	459	Birmingham Perry Barr	Khalid Mahmood	75,301	58.1	9.6	50.8	7.7	11.3	16.3	0.0	4.3	LAB	LAB
120	438	Coventry East	Colleen Fletcher	74,310	59.3	18.5	58.0	3.0	13.0	5.9	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
130	428	Smethwick	John Spellar	70,903	60.0	16.5	55.3	3.5	14.7	8.1	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
137	421	Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley	Tahir Ali	77,165	65.5	10.3	48.4	8.4	10.3	17.2	0.0	5.4	LAB	LAB
150	408	Birmingham Edgbaston	Preet Gill	73,255	61.0	19.2	55.8	5.0	10.9	7.1	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
174	384	Wolverhampton South East	Pat McFadden	76,072	55.7	21.5	55.5	1.8	14.0	5.5	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
175	383	Tipton and Wednesbury	Shaun Bailey	73,716	54.5	20.0	54.0	2.1	17.4	4.9	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
181	377	Warwick and Leamington	Matt Western	75,602	71.3	21.8	55.0	4.6	8.3	8.4	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
202	356	Birmingham Northfield	Gary Sambrook	74,909	58.5	22.0	53.6	3.4	12.7	6.3	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
211	347	Worcester	Robin Walker	73,485	69.3	22.5	52.9	4.0	11.0	8.1	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
213	345	Coventry North West	Taiwo Owatemi	75,247	63.5	22.7	53.0	4.1	11.8	6.4	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
216	342	Shrewsbury	Daniel Kawczynski	74,764	71.8	22.2	52.3	6.0	12.8	4.9	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
218	340	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Aaron Bell	71,555	65.9	22.6	52.6	3.7	15.3	4.1	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
224	334	Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North	Liam Byrne	77,784	58.8	16.8	46.3	6.0	13.0	15.6	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
231	327	Coventry South	Zarah Sultana	72,674	62.5	23.7	52.9	4.3	11.1	5.9	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
243	315	Stoke-on-Trent North	Jonathan Gullis	70,840	59.0	22.2	50.7	3.1	18.3	4.1	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
250	308	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Jo Gideon	71,444	58.7	24.2	52.2	2.6	14.4	5.0	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
254	304	Walsall and Bloxwich	Eddie Hughes	74,080	58.3	21.8	49.5	3.8	15.9	6.8	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
260	298	Birmingham Erdington	Jack Dromey	78,252	54.1	28.1	55.0	2.2	8.0	3.7	1.1	2.0	LAB	LAB
262	296	Birmingham Yardley	Jess Phillips	73,100	57.2	14.2	41.0	16.9	14.8	9.8	0.0	3.3	LAB	LAB
293	265	Wolverhampton North East	Jane Stevenson	71,096	55.3	25.2	49.0	3.1	17.0	4.5	0.0	1.2	CON	LAB
301	257	Wolverhampton West	Stuart Anderson	77,127	65.0	27.9	50.6	3.1	11.5	5.1	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
321	237	West Bromwich	Nicola Richards	71,963	57.4	27.1	48.1	2.7	14.0	5.9	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
322	236	Telford	Lucy Allan	70,351	62.3	26.5	47.5	3.4	17.0	4.3	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
334	224	Rugby	Mark Pawsey	72,566	70.3	27.0	46.7	6.2	14.1	4.5	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
337	221	Stafford	Theo Clarke	69,680	70.8	29.1	47.6	4.1	12.1	5.9	0.0	1.1	CON	LAB
362	196	Nuneaton	Marcus Jones	70,225	64.3	27.3	42.4	5.1	16.9	6.4	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
366	192	Halesowen	James Morris	70,183	63.0	26.9	41.8	5.3	18.9	5.1	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
384	174	Stourbridge	Suzanne Webb	70,361	63.9	27.8	40.1	6.0	18.6	5.4	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
400	158	Burton and Uttoxeter	Kate Griffiths	75,038	64.9	30.1	40.3	4.9	17.7	5.4	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
403	155	Kenilworth and Southam	Jeremy Wright	70,364	76.6	29.1	38.6	12.6	11.9	6.0	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
413	145	Dudley	Marco Longhi	71,755	59.4	32.0	40.1	3.1	17.6	5.8	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
422	136	Hereford and South Herefordshire	Jesse Norman	71,233	68.9	26.7	34.0	12.8	17.9	6.6	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
429	129	Sutton Coldfield	Andrew Mitchell	75,638	69.2	30.7	36.9	9.7	15.4	5.2	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
440	118	Warwickshire North and Bedworth	Craig Tracey	70,270	65.3	33.6	38.2	4.0	17.1	5.5	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
443	115	Stoke-on-Trent South	Jack Brereton	69,994	64.6	33.4	37.7	5.5	16.7	5.0	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
446	112	Meriden and Solihull East	Saqib Bhatti	74,917	65.2	30.0	33.3	11.6	15.0	8.0	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
449	109	Staffordshire Moorlands	Karen Bradley	72,269	67.4	35.7	38.5	3.8	15.7	5.0	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
450	108	Tamworth	Christopher Pincher	73,523	64.5	38.0	40.8	2.6	11.7	3.4	1.1	2.3	CON	LAB
454	104	Worcestershire West	Harriett Baldwin	76,241	75.5	29.3	31.6	14.3	16.3	6.6	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
455	103	Cannock Chase	Amanda Milling	74,815	61.9	35.0	37.3	2.4	15.8	8.2	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
462	96	Wrekin, The	Mark Pritchard	75,745	69.0	35.0	36.4	5.3	15.9	5.8	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
468	90	Stratford-on-Avon	Nadhim Zahawi	72,318	74.3	27.7	28.2	21.7	15.0	5.4	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
471	87	Redditch	Rachel Maclean	69,775	67.7	36.2	36.3	4.4	15.6	5.9	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
477	81	Bromsgrove	Sajid Javid	75,078	72.3	36.1	35.6	6.5	15.1	5.1	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
478	80	Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge	Unknown (new seat)	70,181	69.6	35.9	35.0	5.2	17.2	5.2	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
479	79	Wyre Forest	Mark Garnier	78,076	64.8	35.2	34.2	5.8	17.0	6.1	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
486	72	Solihull West and Shirley	Julian Knight	71,171	69.2	32.0	30.2	13.8	14.1	7.9	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
491	67	Lichfield	Michael Fabricant	74,665	70.4	37.4	35.2	5.5	14.9	5.5	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
515	43	Aldridge-Brownhills	Wendy Morton	72,512	64.9	37.2	32.0	5.3	18.1	5.5	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
523	35	Droitwich and Evesham	Nigel Huddleston	73,836	71.7	37.3	30.7	7.3	14.8	7.9	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
525	33	Shropshire South	Philip Dunne	76,915	72.3	36.1	29.2	11.5	16.0	5.5	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
535	23	Herefordshire North	Bill Wiggin	71,099	72.6	36.5	27.6	8.8	14.7	10.7	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
547	10	Shropshire North	Owen Paterson	76,778	67.9	30.8	19.2	31.6	11.5	4.2	0.0	2.7	CON	LIB
554	4	Kingswinford and South Staffordshire	Gavin Williamson	71,981	64.6	41.6	27.8	5.7	16.8	6.1	0.0	1.8	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.