West Midlands: Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 27.6%15 19.2%07-78
LAB 34.0%38 19.4%035-353
LIB 8.8%2 9.9%00+02
Reform 18.1%0 33.9%410+4141
Green 6.6%1 13.1%21+12
Other 4.9%1 4.6%00+01

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Shrewsbury' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Shropshire North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Worcestershire West (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Coventry South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
20364Shrewsbury Julia Buckley76,63367.36.146.43.537.43.41.61.6LABLAB
31353Warwick and Leamington Matt Western76,29464.518.127.810.421.418.82.11.5LABLAB
38346Coventry South Zarah Sultana76,26256.012.233.67.028.413.92.52.3LABLAB
60323Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood83,69343.75.718.85.815.832.221.60.0LABGreen
74309Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Tahir Ali76,93654.17.517.610.517.323.823.30.0LABGreen
79305Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Kaur Gill71,78752.116.523.710.224.118.82.83.9LABReform
84300Coventry North West Taiwo Owatemi75,05756.08.935.75.136.59.82.41.6LABReform
99285West Bromwich Sarah Coombes74,02649.34.840.11.643.94.52.52.7LABReform
100283Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright74,92371.227.919.417.523.39.90.91.1CONCON
104279Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Gavin Williamson71,56159.833.620.88.625.09.20.82.0CONCON
109275Worcester Tom Collins74,93161.415.826.18.130.615.42.21.7LABReform
116268Wolverhampton West Warinder Juss77,85156.118.324.87.229.914.22.43.1LABReform
125258Birmingham Perry Barr Ayoub Khan76,35049.19.917.16.323.118.724.90.0MINMIN
141243Birmingham Selly Oak Alistair Carns75,67850.810.721.66.828.826.12.23.8LABReform
151232Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell74,08065.229.820.59.828.49.41.20.9CONCON
154230Stafford Leigh Ingham70,60865.223.322.08.430.313.61.11.3LABReform
173211Rugby John Anthony Slinger74,90165.419.523.39.633.411.11.51.5LABReform
178206Telford Shaun Davies73,80855.24.838.51.348.83.91.80.9LABReform
184200Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips73,20349.48.217.810.628.813.418.92.1LABReform
203180Solihull West and Shirley Neil Shastri-Hurst71,81365.333.414.912.427.29.41.80.9CONCON
210174Newcastle-under-Lyme Adam Jogee67,83958.419.821.69.434.412.81.10.9LABReform
214170Smethwick Gurinder Singh Josan72,86348.29.922.35.035.619.93.43.9LABReform
232152Halesowen Alex Ballinger68,54956.320.020.510.135.012.01.11.2LABReform
235149Coventry East Mary Creagh75,80148.811.822.75.037.418.81.92.5LABReform
246138Birmingham Northfield Laurence Turner74,04850.816.920.77.736.014.92.11.7LABReform
251133Lichfield Dave Robertson76,11864.521.820.69.836.58.81.21.3LABReform
252132Nuneaton Jodie Gosling71,66257.520.220.26.536.413.72.00.9LABReform
260123Stratford-on-Avon Manuela Perteghella75,71469.921.910.031.126.87.21.02.0LIBLIB
269115Bromsgrove Bradley Anthony Thomas76,46865.924.017.112.934.38.51.12.3CONReform
278106Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard78,94263.421.119.09.336.910.91.41.5CONReform
281103Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman72,20363.122.117.911.536.09.91.11.5CONReform
283101Stourbridge Cat Eccles68,31158.419.220.38.238.610.12.51.2LABReform
28599Wolverhampton North East Sureena Brackenridge70,71547.117.821.06.639.412.91.21.1LABReform
29886Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley69,89262.023.621.24.740.78.50.80.5CONReform
29984Meriden and Solihull East Saqib Bhatti73,65959.835.913.37.733.08.11.10.9CONCON
30579Redditch Christopher James Bloore71,03859.719.919.86.440.110.72.01.1LABReform
31470Shropshire South Stuart Anderson76,72367.323.712.918.733.78.71.01.3CONReform
31767Burton and Uttoxeter Jacob Collier77,99458.518.119.96.540.910.23.11.3LABReform
32163Stoke-on-Trent North David Williams69,79051.812.624.35.245.78.42.01.8LABReform
32559Stoke-on-Trent South Allison Gardner68,26360.020.918.18.940.08.51.42.2LABReform
32657Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin79,24269.045.47.87.930.07.30.80.8CONCON
32955Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Liam Byrne77,73743.99.815.25.437.616.812.52.6LABReform
33252Birmingham Erdington Paulette Hamilton77,46343.612.018.46.541.116.82.13.1LABReform
33945Cannock Chase Josh Newbury76,97455.819.918.96.042.011.31.00.9LABReform
34044Herefordshire North Ellie Chowns72,79769.224.67.26.930.327.72.11.1GreenReform
34836Dudley Sonia Kumar70,15151.020.417.75.842.510.51.02.1LABReform
35133Tamworth Sarah Edwards75,05958.319.319.25.844.19.11.21.3LABReform
35331Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden77,47343.111.220.33.845.415.72.31.3LABReform
35925Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton70,87157.732.513.16.938.96.61.00.9CONReform
36024Tipton and Wednesbury Antonia Bance74,10043.014.919.44.545.211.72.02.4LABReform
36123Wyre Forest Mark Garnier77,39458.323.514.88.840.88.81.22.2CONReform
36222Warwickshire North and Bedworth Rachel Margaret Taylor69,75258.718.618.56.944.59.11.31.0LABReform
36321Walsall and Bloxwich Valerie Vaz75,96849.016.413.36.939.314.39.90.0LABReform
36420Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell73,69347.911.118.94.545.614.91.73.1LABReform
36419Droitwich and Evesham Nigel Huddleston76,62464.742.68.65.935.35.91.00.7CONCON
36815Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Mike Wood71,66263.040.89.54.339.14.40.91.0CONCON
3749Shropshire North Helen Morgan77,59463.95.32.249.737.72.21.21.8LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.