West Midlands: Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 27.6%15 20.5%07-78
LAB 34.0%38 17.8%035-353
LIB 8.8%2 10.7%00+02
Reform 18.1%0 34.6%410+4141
Green 6.6%1 12.2%11+01
Other 4.9%1 4.1%10+12

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Shrewsbury' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Shropshire North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Birmingham Erdington (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Coventry South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
35353Shrewsbury Julia Buckley76,63367.37.243.94.538.23.71.80.7LABLAB
39349Warwick and Leamington Matt Western76,29464.518.727.311.122.417.92.00.7LABLAB
41347Coventry South Zarah Sultana76,26256.011.535.66.630.911.42.81.1LABLAB
68319Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood83,69343.76.416.36.116.331.223.70.0LABGreen
72316Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Kaur Gill71,78752.116.125.710.926.216.42.91.8LABReform
84303Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Tahir Ali76,93654.18.315.710.818.023.024.20.0LABMIN
108280Coventry North West Taiwo Owatemi75,05756.012.329.27.535.112.22.90.8LABReform
131257Wolverhampton West Warinder Juss77,85156.120.222.88.930.113.72.91.5LABReform
137251Worcester Tom Collins74,93161.418.721.810.029.816.42.40.8LABReform
137250Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright74,92371.232.116.816.424.88.50.90.5CONCON
145242Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Gavin Williamson71,56159.838.817.38.425.97.60.91.0CONCON
146242Birmingham Selly Oak Alistair Carns75,67850.811.820.88.429.625.32.41.8LABReform
146241Birmingham Perry Barr Ayoub Khan76,35049.111.014.66.423.517.527.00.0MINMIN
156232West Bromwich Sarah Coombes74,02649.36.935.12.844.65.93.31.4LABReform
169219Stafford Leigh Ingham70,60865.224.620.49.231.112.81.20.6LABReform
186202Rugby John Anthony Slinger74,90165.420.722.010.534.310.21.70.7LABReform
196192Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips73,20349.49.116.411.629.612.220.01.2LABReform
213174Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell74,08065.237.315.67.930.57.11.20.4CONCON
216172Smethwick Gurinder Singh Josan72,86348.210.521.56.436.618.93.92.1LABReform
218170Telford Shaun Davies73,80855.28.232.32.747.76.42.30.5LABReform
221167Newcastle-under-Lyme Adam Jogee67,83958.421.319.710.035.212.01.30.5LABReform
246142Coventry East Mary Creagh75,80148.813.620.56.337.518.52.31.3LABReform
249139Halesowen Alex Ballinger68,54956.321.318.910.736.011.11.40.6LABReform
256132Birmingham Northfield Laurence Turner74,04850.818.119.38.636.814.02.50.8LABReform
258130Lichfield Dave Robertson76,11864.523.019.310.537.28.11.20.6LABReform
258129Solihull West and Shirley Neil Shastri-Hurst71,81365.338.911.710.229.67.41.80.4CONCON
264124Nuneaton Jodie Gosling71,66257.521.818.47.137.013.02.20.5LABReform
266121Stratford-on-Avon Manuela Perteghella75,71469.922.39.132.528.16.30.90.9LIBLIB
283105Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard78,94263.422.517.510.137.710.01.50.7CONReform
29197Stourbridge Cat Eccles68,31158.420.518.79.039.49.22.70.6LABReform
30088Wolverhampton North East Sureena Brackenridge70,71547.119.618.77.340.511.81.50.6LABReform
30484Bromsgrove Bradley Anthony Thomas76,46865.929.913.911.436.26.61.11.0CONReform
30682Redditch Christopher James Bloore71,03859.721.318.27.240.79.92.10.6LABReform
31870Burton and Uttoxeter Jacob Collier77,99458.519.618.17.341.49.43.30.7LABReform
31969Shropshire South Stuart Anderson76,72367.327.011.018.234.67.51.00.6CONReform
31968Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin79,24269.046.36.98.230.66.80.80.4CONCON
32365Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman72,20363.128.813.89.937.87.81.30.7CONReform
32563Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Liam Byrne77,73743.911.113.86.738.015.713.41.4LABReform
32860Birmingham Erdington Paulette Hamilton77,46343.613.517.07.941.615.92.61.6LABReform
33058Herefordshire North Ellie Chowns72,79769.225.86.17.730.827.12.10.5GreenReform
33355Stoke-on-Trent North David Williams69,79051.816.718.97.444.09.32.80.9LABReform
33552Meriden and Solihull East Saqib Bhatti73,65959.841.29.96.035.36.11.20.4CONCON
34147Cannock Chase Josh Newbury76,97455.821.417.26.642.710.51.20.5LABReform
34444Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley69,89262.029.915.94.342.06.71.00.3CONReform
34543Stoke-on-Trent South Allison Gardner68,26360.025.115.08.941.17.01.81.1LABReform
35038Tamworth Sarah Edwards75,05958.320.617.76.644.88.31.30.6LABReform
35335Dudley Sonia Kumar70,15151.023.115.56.443.59.21.21.0LABReform
35433Droitwich and Evesham Nigel Huddleston76,62464.743.47.76.235.95.31.10.4CONCON
35632Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden77,47343.112.618.14.646.514.82.70.8LABReform
35731Warwickshire North and Bedworth Rachel Margaret Taylor69,75258.719.917.07.645.48.21.50.5LABReform
36028Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell73,69347.913.016.96.045.914.12.41.6LABReform
36523Walsall and Bloxwich Valerie Vaz75,96849.017.711.06.640.512.911.30.0LABReform
36622Tipton and Wednesbury Antonia Bance74,10043.016.117.45.347.110.32.61.2LABReform
36720Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Mike Wood71,66263.041.88.54.639.63.91.00.5CONCON
37018Wyre Forest Mark Garnier77,39458.330.111.07.442.66.61.41.1CONReform
37216Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton70,87157.739.98.34.841.44.21.10.3CONReform
37710Shropshire North Helen Morgan77,59463.95.81.949.338.81.91.40.9LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.