| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.6% | 15 | 18.4% | 0 | 10 | -10 | 5 |
| LAB | 34.0% | 38 | 19.1% | 0 | 31 | -31 | 7 |
| LIB | 8.8% | 2 | 11.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 18.1% | 0 | 36.1% | 41 | 0 | +41 | 41 |
| Green | 6.6% | 1 | 9.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 4.8% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Warwick and Leamington' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Shropshire North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Newcastle-under-Lyme (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Birmingham Edgbaston (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 423 | Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western | 76,294 | 64.5 | 8.0 | 48.2 | 5.1 | 31.7 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 104 | 351 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns | 75,678 | 50.8 | 4.0 | 44.7 | 2.6 | 37.6 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 6.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 108 | 347 | Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley | 76,633 | 67.3 | 5.2 | 46.8 | 3.8 | 40.1 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 112 | 343 | Coventry South | Zarah Sultana | 76,262 | 56.0 | 5.4 | 45.6 | 2.8 | 39.2 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 126 | 329 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Kaur Gill | 71,787 | 52.1 | 5.6 | 42.4 | 2.7 | 38.4 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 7.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 133 | 322 | Worcester | Tom Collins | 74,931 | 61.4 | 5.8 | 44.4 | 2.9 | 41.4 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 151 | 304 | Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi | 75,057 | 56.0 | 4.5 | 44.1 | 2.3 | 43.7 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 185 | 270 | Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss | 77,851 | 56.1 | 5.5 | 40.2 | 2.2 | 43.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 4.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 189 | 266 | Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan | 72,863 | 48.2 | 3.1 | 38.8 | 2.0 | 42.8 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 189 | 265 | Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood | 83,693 | 43.7 | 3.9 | 19.3 | 11.4 | 23.4 | 17.6 | 24.5 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 199 | 256 | Coventry East | Mary Creagh | 75,801 | 48.8 | 4.1 | 40.2 | 2.0 | 45.5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 214 | 240 | Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Gavin Williamson | 71,561 | 59.8 | 32.4 | 17.9 | 10.1 | 24.7 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 7.0 | CON | CON |
| 219 | 236 | Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali | 76,936 | 54.1 | 5.7 | 16.9 | 15.8 | 24.0 | 14.2 | 23.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 229 | 226 | Rugby | John Anthony Slinger | 74,901 | 65.4 | 22.9 | 23.7 | 10.3 | 31.5 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 235 | 219 | Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | 74,923 | 71.2 | 29.4 | 15.9 | 19.1 | 24.6 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 2.1 | CON | CON |
| 240 | 215 | Stafford | Leigh Ingham | 70,608 | 65.2 | 22.6 | 23.7 | 8.3 | 32.9 | 10.4 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 258 | 197 | West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes | 74,026 | 49.3 | 3.7 | 38.0 | 2.2 | 48.9 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 265 | 190 | Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner | 74,048 | 50.8 | 5.1 | 37.9 | 2.2 | 49.1 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 296 | 159 | Telford | Shaun Davies | 73,808 | 55.2 | 7.8 | 34.1 | 3.5 | 47.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 298 | 157 | Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton | 77,463 | 43.6 | 3.8 | 35.3 | 2.0 | 49.4 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 6.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 306 | 149 | Birmingham Perry Barr | Ayoub Khan | 76,350 | 49.1 | 5.6 | 15.4 | 9.7 | 30.2 | 12.1 | 25.2 | 1.7 | MIN | Reform |
| 309 | 146 | Lichfield | Dave Robertson | 76,118 | 64.5 | 23.5 | 20.4 | 11.2 | 35.5 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 310 | 145 | Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | 77,473 | 43.1 | 2.9 | 37.0 | 1.8 | 52.1 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 320 | 135 | Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips | 73,203 | 49.4 | 7.1 | 17.2 | 12.1 | 32.9 | 9.0 | 21.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 329 | 126 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee | 67,839 | 58.4 | 19.7 | 22.1 | 8.7 | 38.4 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 330 | 124 | Sutton Coldfield | Andrew Mitchell | 74,080 | 65.2 | 34.7 | 15.8 | 8.1 | 32.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 341 | 114 | Solihull West and Shirley | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 71,813 | 65.3 | 29.6 | 13.2 | 15.9 | 30.4 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 351 | 104 | Stourbridge | Cat Eccles | 68,311 | 58.4 | 20.0 | 20.3 | 9.0 | 38.6 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 352 | 103 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell | 73,693 | 47.9 | 3.3 | 33.6 | 1.8 | 52.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 6.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 361 | 94 | Redditch | Christopher James Bloore | 71,038 | 59.7 | 22.2 | 18.9 | 9.4 | 38.0 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 367 | 88 | Hereford and South Herefordshire | Jesse Norman | 72,203 | 63.1 | 23.1 | 16.4 | 12.8 | 36.5 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 1.9 | CON | Reform |
| 372 | 83 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier | 77,994 | 58.5 | 20.1 | 18.7 | 8.4 | 39.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 374 | 81 | Wrekin, The | Mark Pritchard | 78,942 | 63.4 | 23.4 | 16.3 | 12.0 | 36.9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | CON | Reform |
| 375 | 80 | Worcestershire West | Harriett Baldwin | 79,242 | 69.0 | 26.1 | 9.3 | 22.1 | 30.2 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 2.0 | CON | Reform |
| 376 | 79 | Halesowen | Alex Ballinger | 68,549 | 56.3 | 17.5 | 20.1 | 10.1 | 41.1 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 380 | 75 | Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling | 71,662 | 57.5 | 18.5 | 19.1 | 8.1 | 40.4 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 386 | 69 | Bromsgrove | Bradley Anthony Thomas | 76,468 | 65.9 | 31.0 | 12.6 | 12.1 | 34.8 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 3.6 | CON | Reform |
| 388 | 66 | Stratford-on-Avon | Manuela Perteghella | 75,714 | 69.9 | 23.3 | 5.8 | 35.5 | 28.2 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 395 | 60 | Wyre Forest | Mark Garnier | 77,394 | 58.3 | 21.0 | 16.5 | 9.7 | 39.7 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 4.9 | CON | Reform |
| 397 | 58 | Tamworth | Sarah Edwards | 75,059 | 58.3 | 20.9 | 18.9 | 8.0 | 42.3 | 7.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 398 | 57 | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne | 77,737 | 43.9 | 8.8 | 15.7 | 7.2 | 39.2 | 9.4 | 19.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 399 | 56 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner | 68,263 | 60.0 | 20.9 | 17.8 | 8.5 | 41.4 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 400 | 55 | Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge | 70,715 | 47.1 | 17.0 | 20.2 | 7.5 | 43.8 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 405 | 50 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz | 75,968 | 49.0 | 9.2 | 17.7 | 7.0 | 42.0 | 9.7 | 14.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 409 | 46 | Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams | 69,790 | 51.8 | 16.8 | 19.5 | 6.7 | 44.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 412 | 43 | Warwickshire North and Bedworth | Rachel Margaret Taylor | 69,752 | 58.7 | 19.8 | 18.9 | 7.7 | 44.2 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 414 | 41 | Staffordshire Moorlands | Karen Bradley | 69,892 | 62.0 | 24.6 | 16.6 | 7.5 | 42.1 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 1.6 | CON | Reform |
| 419 | 36 | Shropshire South | Stuart Anderson | 76,723 | 67.3 | 23.9 | 8.4 | 25.3 | 34.6 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 1.5 | CON | Reform |
| 421 | 33 | Herefordshire North | Ellie Chowns | 72,797 | 69.2 | 22.8 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 31.1 | 32.6 | 0.0 | 1.9 | Green | Green |
| 423 | 32 | Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury | 76,974 | 55.8 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 7.1 | 45.8 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 431 | 23 | Meriden and Solihull East | Saqib Bhatti | 73,659 | 59.8 | 40.6 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 37.9 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 | CON | CON |
| 436 | 18 | Droitwich and Evesham | Nigel Huddleston | 76,624 | 64.7 | 40.8 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 38.5 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 1.8 | CON | CON |
| 437 | 18 | Dudley | Sonia Kumar | 70,151 | 51.0 | 17.0 | 15.6 | 7.6 | 47.3 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 440 | 15 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance | 74,100 | 43.0 | 10.1 | 20.9 | 5.0 | 53.2 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 442 | 13 | Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Mike Wood | 71,662 | 63.0 | 38.4 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 41.8 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 3.0 | CON | Reform |
| 447 | 8 | Aldridge-Brownhills | Wendy Morton | 70,871 | 57.7 | 36.1 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 45.2 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 | CON | Reform |
| 448 | 6 | Shropshire North | Helen Morgan | 77,594 | 63.9 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 49.9 | 40.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.