West Midlands: Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 27.6%15 20.4%06-69
LAB 34.0%38 18.1%034-344
LIB 8.8%2 10.5%00+02
Reform 18.1%0 34.0%380+3838
Green 6.6%1 12.5%00+01
Other 4.9%1 4.6%20+23

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Birmingham Ladywood' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Shropshire North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Hereford and South Herefordshire (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Shrewsbury (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
35378Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood83,69343.77.124.54.010.121.333.00.0LABMIN
61353Coventry South Zarah Sultana76,26256.06.346.32.337.14.23.80.0LABLAB
63351Warwick and Leamington Matt Western76,29464.515.133.19.624.213.84.30.0LABLAB
66347Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Tahir Ali76,93654.111.419.37.411.821.129.20.0LABMIN
71343Shrewsbury Julia Buckley76,63367.36.345.33.938.93.02.60.0LABLAB
90324Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Kaur Gill71,78752.117.826.39.323.218.45.00.0LABLAB
90323Birmingham Perry Barr Ayoub Khan76,35049.111.319.33.816.118.131.40.0MINMIN
101313Coventry North West Taiwo Owatemi75,05756.05.642.22.242.34.23.50.0LABReform
104310Coventry East Mary Creagh75,80148.86.839.32.339.77.04.90.0LABReform
114300Birmingham Selly Oak Alistair Carns75,67850.814.325.17.726.121.05.90.0LABReform
122292Wolverhampton West Warinder Juss77,85156.116.729.16.331.412.83.80.0LABReform
124290Worcester Tom Collins74,93161.411.333.16.835.89.43.50.0LABReform
136278West Bromwich Sarah Coombes74,02649.35.140.51.844.84.23.60.0LABReform
142272Smethwick Gurinder Singh Josan72,86348.213.524.66.329.820.05.90.0LABReform
155259Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips73,20349.413.418.38.125.618.516.10.0LABReform
182232Telford Shaun Davies73,80855.25.038.41.948.53.03.20.0LABReform
193220Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Gavin Williamson71,56159.840.314.18.825.49.61.80.0CONCON
201213Rugby John Anthony Slinger74,90165.422.021.010.233.310.53.10.0LABReform
203210Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright74,92371.231.913.816.726.59.71.50.0CONCON
220194Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden77,47343.16.433.12.047.16.05.30.0LABReform
238176Stafford Leigh Ingham70,60865.222.919.57.934.711.63.40.0LABReform
243171Birmingham Northfield Laurence Turner74,04850.815.922.37.738.112.63.50.0LABReform
251163Birmingham Erdington Paulette Hamilton77,46343.615.220.76.236.816.74.50.0LABReform
271143Walsall and Bloxwich Valerie Vaz75,96849.017.314.54.032.115.616.50.0LABReform
275139Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Liam Byrne77,73743.913.615.25.033.716.915.60.0LABReform
279134Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin79,24269.030.09.817.928.811.81.70.0CONCON
284130Lichfield Dave Robertson76,11864.526.816.89.736.38.02.50.0LABReform
285129Stourbridge Cat Eccles68,31158.422.518.18.437.710.23.10.0LABReform
299115Newcastle-under-Lyme Adam Jogee67,83958.421.018.38.339.110.23.10.0LABReform
304110Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell73,69347.914.620.35.841.313.74.30.0LABReform
309105Redditch Christopher James Bloore71,03859.721.617.98.539.19.93.10.0LABReform
312102Halesowen Alex Ballinger68,54956.321.617.38.138.711.23.10.0LABReform
313101Burton and Uttoxeter Jacob Collier77,99458.521.417.78.039.210.23.60.0LABReform
31995Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard78,94263.426.114.99.837.09.42.70.0CONReform
32688Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman72,20363.127.513.610.236.49.52.80.0CONReform
32786Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell74,08065.243.910.14.932.96.41.80.0CONCON
32886Nuneaton Jodie Gosling71,66257.520.317.36.940.211.83.60.0LABReform
32984Solihull West and Shirley Neil Shastri-Hurst71,81365.341.58.68.331.97.91.80.0CONCON
33380Herefordshire North Ellie Chowns72,79769.222.54.96.528.733.24.30.0GreenGreen
33974Stratford-on-Avon Manuela Perteghella75,71469.919.26.335.130.76.62.10.0LIBLIB
34074Stoke-on-Trent North David Williams69,79051.816.819.97.044.59.32.50.0LABReform
34470Shropshire South Stuart Anderson76,72367.323.49.623.334.47.61.70.0CONReform
35163Tamworth Sarah Edwards75,05958.321.217.27.642.78.72.70.0LABReform
35261Bromsgrove Bradley Anthony Thomas76,46865.937.39.88.235.66.42.70.0CONCON
35856Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley69,89262.029.514.36.340.67.81.40.0CONReform
36054Wolverhampton North East Sureena Brackenridge70,71547.117.517.96.344.510.53.30.0LABReform
36747Tipton and Wednesbury Antonia Bance74,10043.014.718.76.045.911.73.00.0LABReform
37539Warwickshire North and Bedworth Rachel Margaret Taylor69,75258.722.315.47.144.08.72.50.0LABReform
38033Meriden and Solihull East Saqib Bhatti73,65959.841.67.95.237.16.81.40.0CONCON
38529Cannock Chase Josh Newbury76,97455.819.615.86.346.09.52.70.0LABReform
38628Dudley Sonia Kumar70,15151.021.214.46.144.710.43.20.0LABReform
38727Stoke-on-Trent South Allison Gardner68,26360.033.910.55.141.26.62.70.0LABReform
39023Droitwich and Evesham Nigel Huddleston76,62464.741.26.46.038.36.81.30.0CONCON
39914Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Mike Wood71,66263.041.27.14.340.85.51.10.0CONCON
40113Wyre Forest Mark Garnier77,39458.335.28.24.842.16.92.80.0CONReform
40410Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton70,87157.739.36.94.042.95.71.10.0CONReform
4049Shropshire North Helen Morgan77,59463.95.31.850.338.42.31.90.0LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.