Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	43.1%	27	21.6%	0	22	-22	5
LAB	38.9%	27	48.0%	21	1	+20	47
LIB	8.1%	0	6.8%	2	0	+2	2
Reform	5.9%	0	14.5%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.3%	0	6.4%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.8%	0	2.7%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leeds Central and Headingley, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Wetherby and Easingwold, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Keighley and Ilkley (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Doncaster Central (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
41	517	Leeds Central and Headingley	Alex Sobel	75,218	63.6	7.8	61.7	5.8	9.5	12.8	0.0	2.5	LAB	LAB
51	507	York Central	Rachael Maskell	76,303	66.3	13.1	64.1	4.2	10.2	6.8	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
56	502	Leeds South	Hilary Benn	74,574	54.7	11.4	60.6	3.8	13.8	8.6	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
58	500	Leeds North East	Fabian Hamilton	70,545	71.5	11.8	60.7	5.5	9.9	9.2	0.0	2.8	LAB	LAB
66	492	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	Gill Furniss	70,294	57.1	9.4	56.5	3.4	14.2	13.7	0.0	2.8	LAB	LAB
68	490	Sheffield Heeley	Louise Haigh	74,095	62.5	11.4	57.9	6.4	13.2	8.8	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
69	489	Barnsley North	Dan Jarvis	76,552	56.1	9.7	56.2	2.8	22.1	5.9	0.0	3.2	LAB	LAB
88	470	Sheffield Central	Paul Blomfield	70,914	56.7	4.0	47.7	4.3	4.9	37.1	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
106	452	Hull East	Karl Turner	73,112	49.7	11.8	52.6	6.5	20.9	5.6	0.0	2.6	LAB	LAB
112	446	Barnsley South	Stephanie Peacock	75,635	55.2	13.3	53.7	3.0	23.4	4.7	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
124	434	Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham	Diana Johnson	76,620	55.3	16.4	55.8	5.6	14.9	5.2	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
133	425	Sheffield South East	Clive Betts	75,260	62.1	17.5	55.9	4.0	16.1	4.4	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
136	422	Leeds West and Pudsey	Unknown (new seat)	69,837	67.1	19.8	58.0	3.5	11.7	5.2	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
142	416	Rawmarsh and Conisbrough	John Healey	69,958	57.4	18.1	55.6	2.8	18.0	3.6	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
145	413	Bradford West	Naz Shah	70,695	62.6	10.7	48.0	5.1	11.2	21.2	0.0	3.8	LAB	LAB
147	411	Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley	Yvette Cooper	72,666	57.1	18.1	55.3	3.4	17.6	3.6	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
151	407	Normanton and Hemsworth	Jon Trickett	75,392	59.2	16.8	53.3	3.0	20.2	4.7	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
166	392	Doncaster North	Ed Miliband	71,752	56.3	16.0	50.9	3.7	22.9	4.2	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
167	391	Bradford East	Imran Hussain	71,646	60.4	11.3	46.1	9.1	14.6	14.8	0.0	4.1	LAB	LAB
176	382	Rotherham	Sarah Champion	74,645	57.9	16.2	50.0	4.5	22.0	5.0	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
177	381	Calder Valley	Craig Whittaker	76,434	72.9	22.4	56.1	3.8	12.6	3.4	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
187	371	Leeds South West and Morley	Andrea Jenkyns	70,921	64.3	21.4	54.0	2.8	15.4	4.8	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
198	360	Leeds East	Richard Burgon	74,719	61.1	21.7	53.9	3.2	14.5	5.0	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
203	355	Huddersfield	Barry Sheerman	75,495	65.4	20.3	51.8	4.4	11.3	10.3	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
210	348	Colne Valley	Jason McCartney	71,047	72.3	23.1	53.5	4.3	13.3	4.0	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
217	341	Doncaster Central	Rosie Winterton	75,156	58.4	21.0	51.0	3.2	18.1	4.7	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
239	319	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	Unknown (changed seat)	74,518	56.7	20.4	49.1	6.8	16.6	4.1	0.0	2.9	CON	LAB
246	312	Shipley	Philip Davies	74,018	72.9	24.8	53.1	3.7	10.9	5.9	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
249	309	Leeds North West	Stuart Andrew	71,302	73.4	24.0	52.1	7.7	10.1	3.9	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
255	303	Halifax	Holly Lynch	74,742	64.9	23.2	50.9	3.8	13.4	6.9	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
256	302	York Outer	Julian Sturdy	73,271	74.0	20.8	48.4	13.2	12.2	3.3	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
263	295	Bradford South	Judith Cummins	70,607	57.6	22.3	48.9	3.2	14.8	9.0	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
267	291	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Miriam Cates	70,927	69.8	22.6	49.1	7.0	15.5	3.2	0.0	2.7	CON	LAB
273	285	Wakefield and Rothwell	Unknown (new seat)	73,602	66.5	25.7	51.8	3.0	10.9	3.8	1.5	3.3	CON	LAB
274	284	Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes	Lia Nici	77,565	56.8	22.1	47.9	4.9	19.3	4.3	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
296	262	Rother Valley	Alexander Stafford	69,565	65.0	23.5	47.0	4.5	18.1	4.1	0.0	2.8	CON	LAB
299	259	Scarborough and Whitby	Robert Goodwill	74,404	66.8	26.0	48.9	4.7	15.9	3.2	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
312	246	Scunthorpe	Holly Mumby-Croft	73,696	61.7	26.5	48.8	3.1	16.5	3.9	0.0	1.1	CON	LAB
316	242	Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme	Nick Fletcher	70,027	61.5	25.3	47.2	3.1	18.6	3.9	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
323	235	Ossett and Denby Dale	Imran Ahmad-Khan	71,264	65.2	27.8	48.8	2.4	9.1	2.7	3.8	5.4	CON	LAB
327	231	Keighley and Ilkley	Robbie Moore	72,788	72.3	28.0	48.7	4.2	11.4	5.7	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
328	230	Dewsbury and Batley	Unknown (changed seat)	69,626	68.3	23.6	44.2	4.3	12.0	8.2	4.4	3.4	LAB	LAB
333	224	Sheffield Hallam	Olivia Blake	76,154	77.1	12.6	32.4	41.5	8.5	3.5	0.0	1.5	LAB	LIB
354	204	Selby	Nigel Adams	74,457	72.0	31.3	47.3	3.3	9.6	4.1	2.1	2.5	CON	LAB
391	167	Beverley and Holderness	Graham Stuart	71,221	67.2	25.9	37.6	11.6	17.9	4.5	0.0	2.5	CON	LAB
399	159	Spen Valley	Unknown (changed seat)	71,601	67.0	30.0	40.5	3.9	7.9	2.4	11.0	4.4	CON	LAB
436	122	Skipton and Ripon	Julian Smith	76,159	74.6	28.2	33.6	13.3	16.8	6.1	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
470	88	Bridlington and the Wolds	Greg Knight	72,681	65.4	33.0	33.2	6.3	20.2	5.2	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
498	60	Goole and Pocklington	David Davis	76,519	67.8	35.7	33.2	6.4	17.2	5.4	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
504	53	Harrogate and Knaresborough	Andrew Jones	75,382	73.0	26.2	22.9	35.0	12.0	2.4	0.0	1.5	CON	LIB
509	49	Thirsk and Malton	Kevin Hollinrake	76,632	69.9	35.2	30.8	8.3	17.4	6.2	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
516	42	Brigg and Immingham	Martin Vickers	71,838	62.3	36.9	31.6	5.6	18.6	5.4	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
517	41	Richmond and Northallerton	Rishi Sunak	73,217	69.9	36.2	30.9	8.8	15.5	6.3	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
537	21	Wetherby and Easingwold	Alec Shelbrooke	71,150	71.7	40.2	31.1	6.4	13.5	6.8	0.0	2.0	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.