Constituency List: England R-S

Rayleigh and Wickford
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Mark Francois (CON)
Electorate: 75,905
Turnout: 68.96%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,257	57.81%	52.52%
LIB	7,919	15.13%	4.86%
LAB	7,577	14.48%	25.29%
OTH	6,590	12.59%	17.34%
CON Majority	22,338	42.68%	Pred Maj 27.23%

Chance of winning

CON

94.1%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

5.5%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Reading East
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP: Rob Wilson (CON)
Electorate: 74,922
Turnout: 66.72%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,269	42.55%	37.26%
LIB	13,664	27.34%	14.38%
LAB	12,729	25.47%	38.15%
OTH	2,323	4.65%	10.21%
CON Majority	7,605	15.21%	Pred Maj 0.88%

Chance of winning

CON

45.3%

LIB

1.1%

LAB

52.8%

OTH

0.8%

Top

LAB Gain

Reading West
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP: Alok Sharma (CON)
Electorate: 72,118
Turnout: 65.91%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,523	43.18%	37.89%
LAB	14,519	30.55%	43.23%
LIB	9,546	20.08%	7.12%
OTH	2,942	6.19%	11.76%
CON Majority	6,004	12.63%	Pred Maj 5.34%

Chance of winning

CON

36.9%

LAB

62.3%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.7%

Top

LAB Gain

Redcar
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: Ian Swales (LIB)
Electorate: 67,125
Turnout: 62.51%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	18,955	45.17%	31.23%
LAB	13,741	32.75%	45.13%
CON	5,790	13.80%	9.92%
OTH	3,477	8.29%	13.72%
LIB Majority	5,214	12.43%	Pred Maj 13.90%

Chance of winning

LIB

14.8%

LAB

81.9%

CON

1.6%

OTH

1.7%

Top

LAB Gain

Redditch
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (Severn)
MP: Karen Lumley (CON)
Electorate: 68,550
Turnout: 64.21%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,138	43.48%	38.10%
LAB	13,317	30.25%	42.62%
LIB	7,750	17.61%	5.19%
OTH	3,813	8.66%	14.09%
CON Majority	5,821	13.22%	Pred Maj 4.51%

Chance of winning

CON

39.0%

LAB

60.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.7%

Top

LAB Gain

Reigate
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Crispin Blunt (CON)
Electorate: 71,604
Turnout: 69.80%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,688	53.40%	48.11%
LIB	13,097	26.21%	13.24%
LAB	5,672	11.35%	24.03%
OTH	4,521	9.05%	14.61%
CON Majority	13,591	27.19%	Pred Maj 24.08%

Chance of winning

CON

91.1%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

7.7%

OTH

0.9%

Top

Ribble South
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Lorraine Fullbrook (CON)
Electorate: 75,822
Turnout: 67.87%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,396	45.47%	39.67%
LAB	17,842	34.67%	45.65%
LIB	7,271	14.13%	4.12%
OTH	2,949	5.73%	10.55%
CON Majority	5,554	10.79%	Pred Maj 5.98%

Chance of winning

CON

36.7%

LAB

63.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Ribble Valley
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Nigel Evans (CON)
Electorate: 78,068
Turnout: 66.98%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,298	50.30%	44.50%
LAB	11,529	22.05%	35.92%
LIB	10,732	20.53%	6.36%
OTH	3,728	7.13%	13.22%
CON Majority	14,769	28.25%	Pred Maj 8.59%

Chance of winning

CON

67.0%

LAB

32.1%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.8%

Top

Richmond
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: William Hague (CON)
Electorate: 79,478
Turnout: 67.20%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,541	62.80%	57.33%
LIB	10,205	19.11%	6.24%
LAB	8,150	15.26%	27.99%
OTH	1,516	2.84%	8.43%
CON Majority	23,336	43.69%	Pred Maj 29.34%

Chance of winning

CON

95.0%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

4.9%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Richmond Park
County/Area: Richmond Upon Thames (South London)
MP: Zac Goldsmith (CON)
Electorate: 77,060
Turnout: 76.91%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,461	49.71%	44.13%
LIB	25,370	42.81%	28.03%
LAB	2,979	5.03%	19.17%
OTH	1,458	2.46%	8.67%
CON Majority	4,091	6.90%	Pred Maj 16.10%

Chance of winning

CON

79.3%

LIB

10.4%

LAB

8.9%

OTH

1.4%

Top

Rochdale
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Simon Danczuk (LAB)
Electorate: 78,952
Turnout: 58.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,699	36.38%	49.86%
LIB	15,810	34.44%	20.27%
CON	8,305	18.09%	12.85%
OTH	5,093	11.09%	17.01%
LAB Majority	889	1.94%	Pred Maj 29.59%

Chance of winning

LAB

93.2%

LIB

2.3%

CON

2.8%

OTH

1.7%

Top

Rochester and Strood
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Mark Reckless (CON)
Electorate: 73,882
Turnout: 64.93%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,604	49.20%	43.92%
LAB	13,651	28.46%	39.45%
LIB	7,800	16.26%	5.72%
OTH	2,916	6.08%	10.91%
CON Majority	9,953	20.75%	Pred Maj 4.46%

Chance of winning

CON

58.5%

LAB

41.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Rochford and Southend East
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: James Duddridge (CON)
Electorate: 71,080
Turnout: 58.57%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,509	46.86%	41.58%
LAB	8,459	20.32%	33.15%
LIB	8,084	19.42%	6.24%
OTH	5,579	13.40%	19.04%
CON Majority	11,050	26.54%	Pred Maj 8.42%

Chance of winning

CON

65.5%

LAB

31.8%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

2.6%

Top

Romford
County/Area: Havering (North London)
MP: Andrew Rosindell (CON)
Electorate: 71,193
Turnout: 65.29%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,031	56.00%	50.43%
LAB	9,077	19.53%	29.56%
LIB	5,572	11.99%	3.13%
OTH	3,363	7.24%	11.64%
MIN	2,438	5.25%	5.25%
CON Majority	16,954	36.48%	Pred Maj 20.87%

Chance of winning

CON

88.9%

LAB

11.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Romsey and Southampton North
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Caroline Nokes (CON)
Electorate: 66,901
Turnout: 73.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,345	49.75%	44.46%
LIB	20,189	41.25%	28.29%
LAB	3,116	6.37%	19.05%
OTH	1,289	2.63%	8.20%
CON Majority	4,156	8.49%	Pred Maj 16.17%

Chance of winning

CON

85.1%

LIB

8.7%

LAB

5.7%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Rossendale and Darwen
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Jake Berry (CON)
Electorate: 73,003
Turnout: 64.56%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,691	41.78%	35.99%
LAB	15,198	32.25%	45.19%
LIB	8,541	18.12%	5.29%
OTH	3,698	7.85%	13.53%
CON Majority	4,493	9.53%	Pred Maj 9.20%

Chance of winning

CON

29.8%

LAB

69.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.8%

Top

LAB Gain

Rother Valley
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Kevin Barron (LAB)
Electorate: 72,841
Turnout: 64.19%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,147	40.95%	52.86%
CON	13,281	28.40%	22.94%
LIB	8,111	17.35%	5.67%
OTH	6,219	13.30%	18.53%
LAB Majority	5,866	12.55%	Pred Maj 29.92%

Chance of winning

LAB

94.9%

CON

4.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.9%

Top

Rotherham
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Denis MacShane (LAB)
Electorate: 63,565
Turnout: 59.00%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,741	44.64%	55.29%
CON	6,279	16.74%	12.17%
LIB	5,994	15.98%	5.22%
OTH	4,586	12.23%	16.90%
MIN	3,906	10.41%	10.41%
LAB Majority	10,462	27.89%	Pred Maj 38.39%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.5%

CON

0.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Rugby
County/Area: Warwickshire (East Midlands)
MP: Mark Pawsey (CON)
Electorate: 68,914
Turnout: 68.88%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,901	44.03%	38.72%
LAB	14,901	31.39%	44.56%
LIB	9,434	19.87%	6.24%
OTH	2,232	4.70%	10.48%
CON Majority	6,000	12.64%	Pred Maj 5.84%

Chance of winning

CON

36.4%

LAB

63.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.6%

Top

LAB Gain

Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
County/Area: Hillingdon (South London)
MP: Nick Hurd (CON)
Electorate: 70,873
Turnout: 70.84%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,866	57.50%	51.92%
LAB	9,806	19.53%	31.94%
LIB	8,345	16.62%	4.34%
OTH	3,188	6.35%	11.80%
CON Majority	19,060	37.96%	Pred Maj 19.98%

Chance of winning

CON

87.4%

LAB

12.4%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Runnymede and Weybridge
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Philip Hammond (CON)
Electorate: 72,566
Turnout: 66.35%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,915	55.90%	50.61%
LIB	10,406	21.61%	8.65%
LAB	6,446	13.39%	26.07%
OTH	4,383	9.10%	14.67%
CON Majority	16,509	34.29%	Pred Maj 24.54%

Chance of winning

CON

92.1%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

7.3%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Rushcliffe
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Kenneth Clarke (CON)
Electorate: 72,955
Turnout: 73.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,470	51.17%	45.85%
LIB	11,659	21.72%	8.00%
LAB	11,128	20.73%	33.96%
OTH	3,430	6.39%	12.20%
CON Majority	15,811	29.45%	Pred Maj 11.90%

Chance of winning

CON

74.8%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

24.6%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Rutland and Melton
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: Alan Duncan (CON)
Electorate: 77,185
Turnout: 71.54%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,228	51.12%	45.80%
LIB	14,228	25.77%	12.05%
LAB	7,893	14.29%	27.52%
OTH	4,871	8.82%	14.63%
CON Majority	14,000	25.35%	Pred Maj 18.28%

Chance of winning

CON

84.5%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

14.0%

OTH

1.2%

Top

Saffron Walden
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Sir Alan Haselhurst (CON)
Electorate: 76,035
Turnout: 71.51%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,155	55.46%	50.18%
LIB	14,913	27.43%	13.85%
LAB	5,288	9.73%	22.84%
OTH	4,013	7.38%	13.14%
CON Majority	15,242	28.03%	Pred Maj 27.34%

Chance of winning

CON

93.5%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

5.7%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Salford and Eccles
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Hazel Blears (LAB)
Electorate: 75,482
Turnout: 55.02%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,655	40.10%	53.97%
LIB	10,930	26.32%	12.15%
CON	8,497	20.46%	14.67%
OTH	5,451	13.12%	19.21%
LAB Majority	5,725	13.78%	Pred Maj 34.76%

Chance of winning

LAB

96.3%

LIB

0.1%

CON

2.0%

OTH

1.6%

Top

Salisbury
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP: John Glen (CON)
Electorate: 67,429
Turnout: 71.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,859	49.21%	43.91%
LIB	17,893	36.91%	24.29%
LAB	3,690	7.61%	20.06%
OTH	3,039	6.27%	11.73%
CON Majority	5,966	12.31%	Pred Maj 19.62%

Chance of winning

CON

86.7%

LIB

5.0%

LAB

7.3%

OTH

1.0%

Top

Scarborough and Whitby
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Robert Goodwill (CON)
Electorate: 75,443
Turnout: 65.32%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,108	42.83%	37.37%
LAB	12,978	26.33%	39.49%
LIB	11,093	22.51%	9.04%
OTH	4,103	8.33%	14.10%
CON Majority	8,130	16.50%	Pred Maj 2.12%

Chance of winning

CON

43.3%

LAB

55.0%

LIB

0.4%

OTH

1.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Scunthorpe
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: Nic Dakin (LAB)
Electorate: 63,089
Turnout: 58.70%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,640	39.53%	51.89%
CON	12,091	32.65%	27.19%
LIB	6,774	18.29%	5.98%
OTH	3,529	9.53%	14.95%
LAB Majority	2,549	6.88%	Pred Maj 24.70%

Chance of winning

LAB

92.9%

CON

6.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.7%

Top

Sedgefield
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Phil Wilson (LAB)
Electorate: 64,727
Turnout: 62.14%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,141	45.10%	58.69%
CON	9,445	23.48%	17.85%
LIB	8,033	19.97%	6.05%
OTH	4,603	11.44%	17.41%
LAB Majority	8,696	21.62%	Pred Maj 40.83%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.2%

CON

1.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Sefton Central
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Bill Esterson (LAB)
Electorate: 67,512
Turnout: 71.78%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,307	41.90%	55.73%
CON	16,445	33.93%	28.14%
LIB	9,656	19.92%	5.81%
OTH	2,055	4.24%	10.31%
LAB Majority	3,862	7.97%	Pred Maj 27.59%

Chance of winning

LAB

93.8%

CON

6.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Selby and Ainsty
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Nigel Adams (CON)
Electorate: 72,789
Turnout: 71.07%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,562	49.42%	43.95%
LAB	13,297	25.71%	37.81%
LIB	9,180	17.75%	5.80%
OTH	3,689	7.13%	12.44%
CON Majority	12,265	23.71%	Pred Maj 6.15%

Chance of winning

CON

62.4%

LAB

37.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.6%

Top

Sevenoaks
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Michael Fallon (CON)
Electorate: 69,591
Turnout: 71.00%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,076	56.82%	51.54%
LIB	10,561	21.38%	8.41%
LAB	6,541	13.24%	25.92%
OTH	4,230	8.56%	14.13%
CON Majority	17,515	35.45%	Pred Maj 25.62%

Chance of winning

CON

92.7%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

6.8%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: David Blunkett (LAB)
Electorate: 68,186
Turnout: 57.07%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,400	54.99%	66.51%
LIB	7,768	19.96%	6.52%
CON	4,468	11.48%	8.35%
MIN	3,026	7.78%	7.78%
OTH	2,252	5.79%	10.84%
LAB Majority	13,632	35.03%	Pred Maj 55.67%

Chance of winning

LAB

100.0%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Sheffield Central
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Paul Blomfield (LAB)
Electorate: 69,519
Turnout: 59.65%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,138	41.33%	52.61%
LIB	16,973	40.93%	27.46%
CON	4,206	10.14%	7.37%
OTH	3,151	7.60%	12.55%
LAB Majority	165	0.40%	Pred Maj 25.15%

Chance of winning

LAB

96.4%

LIB

2.8%

CON

0.3%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Sheffield Hallam
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Nick Clegg (LIB)
Electorate: 69,378
Turnout: 73.70%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	27,324	53.44%	39.97%
CON	12,040	23.55%	18.08%
LAB	8,228	16.09%	29.24%
OTH	3,543	6.93%	12.70%
LIB Majority	15,284	29.89%	Pred Maj 10.72%

Chance of winning

LIB

68.4%

CON

4.9%

LAB

24.3%

OTH

2.4%

Top

Sheffield Heeley
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Meg Munn (LAB)
Electorate: 65,869
Turnout: 62.05%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,409	42.59%	55.24%
LIB	11,602	28.39%	14.92%
CON	7,081	17.33%	12.59%
OTH	4,779	11.69%	17.24%
LAB Majority	5,807	14.21%	Pred Maj 38.00%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.3%

LIB

0.2%

CON

0.7%

OTH

0.8%

Top

Sheffield South East
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Clive Betts (LAB)
Electorate: 67,284
Turnout: 61.54%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,169	48.71%	61.37%
LIB	9,664	23.34%	9.87%
CON	7,202	17.39%	12.64%
OTH	4,373	10.56%	16.12%
LAB Majority	10,505	25.37%	Pred Maj 45.25%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.5%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.3%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Sherwood
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Mark Spencer (CON)
Electorate: 71,043
Turnout: 68.91%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,211	39.24%	33.93%
LAB	18,997	38.81%	49.59%
LIB	7,283	14.88%	4.67%
OTH	3,463	7.07%	11.81%
CON Majority	214	0.44%	Pred Maj 15.66%

Chance of winning

CON

14.6%

LAB

85.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

LAB Gain

Shipley
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Philip Davies (CON)
Electorate: 67,689
Turnout: 73.02%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,002	48.56%	43.10%
LAB	14,058	28.44%	41.60%
LIB	9,890	20.01%	6.54%
OTH	1,477	2.99%	8.76%
CON Majority	9,944	20.12%	Pred Maj 1.50%

Chance of winning

CON

52.8%

LAB

46.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Shrewsbury and Atcham
County/Area: Shropshire (Severn)
MP: Daniel Kawczynski (CON)
Electorate: 75,438
Turnout: 70.32%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,313	43.95%	38.58%
LIB	15,369	28.97%	14.87%
LAB	10,915	20.58%	34.11%
OTH	3,448	6.50%	12.44%
CON Majority	7,944	14.98%	Pred Maj 4.46%

Chance of winning

CON

55.0%

LIB

1.9%

LAB

41.7%

OTH

1.4%

Top

Shropshire North
County/Area: Shropshire (Severn)
MP: Owen Paterson (CON)
Electorate: 78,926
Turnout: 65.72%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,692	51.46%	46.09%
LIB	10,864	20.95%	6.84%
LAB	9,406	18.13%	31.67%
OTH	4,907	9.46%	15.40%
CON Majority	15,828	30.52%	Pred Maj 14.42%

Chance of winning

CON

79.4%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

19.6%

OTH

0.9%

Top

Sittingbourne and Sheppey
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Gordon Henderson (CON)
Electorate: 75,354
Turnout: 64.47%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,313	50.05%	44.76%
LAB	11,930	24.56%	35.60%
LIB	7,943	16.35%	5.75%
OTH	4,392	9.04%	13.89%
CON Majority	12,383	25.49%	Pred Maj 9.17%

Chance of winning

CON

69.3%

LAB

30.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.6%

Top

Skipton and Ripon
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Julian Smith (CON)
Electorate: 77,381
Turnout: 70.72%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,685	50.59%	45.13%
LIB	17,735	32.41%	18.94%
LAB	5,498	10.05%	23.20%
OTH	3,806	6.95%	12.73%
CON Majority	9,950	18.18%	Pred Maj 21.93%

Chance of winning

CON

86.5%

LIB

1.8%

LAB

10.5%

OTH

1.2%

Top

Sleaford and North Hykeham
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP: Stephen Phillips (CON)
Electorate: 85,550
Turnout: 69.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,719	51.60%	46.14%
LIB	10,814	18.17%	5.93%
LAB	10,051	16.88%	29.18%
OTH	4,140	6.95%	12.35%
MIN	3,806	6.39%	6.39%
CON Majority	19,905	33.44%	Pred Maj 16.96%

Chance of winning

CON

83.8%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

15.6%

OTH

0.5%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Slough
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP: Fiona Mactaggart (LAB)
Electorate: 77,068
Turnout: 61.95%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,884	45.84%	56.06%
CON	16,361	34.27%	28.98%
LIB	6,943	14.54%	5.12%
OTH	2,554	5.35%	9.84%
LAB Majority	5,523	11.57%	Pred Maj 27.08%

Chance of winning

LAB

95.6%

CON

4.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Solihull
County/Area: Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
MP: Lorely Burt (LIB)
Electorate: 77,863
Turnout: 70.80%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,635	42.87%	28.77%
CON	23,460	42.55%	37.18%
LAB	4,891	8.87%	22.41%
OTH	3,143	5.70%	11.64%
LIB Majority	175	0.32%	Pred Maj 8.42%

Chance of winning

LIB

19.9%

CON

58.8%

LAB

18.5%

OTH

2.8%

Top

CON Gain

Somerset North
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Liam Fox (CON)
Electorate: 77,304
Turnout: 74.95%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,549	49.27%	43.97%
LIB	20,687	35.70%	23.09%
LAB	6,448	11.13%	23.58%
OTH	2,257	3.90%	9.36%
CON Majority	7,862	13.57%	Pred Maj 20.39%

Chance of winning

CON

85.2%

LIB

3.7%

LAB

10.5%

OTH

0.6%

Top

Somerset North East
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Jacob Rees-Mogg (CON)
Electorate: 67,412
Turnout: 75.96%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,130	41.27%	35.97%
LAB	16,216	31.67%	44.12%
LIB	11,433	22.33%	9.71%
OTH	2,424	4.73%	10.20%
CON Majority	4,914	9.60%	Pred Maj 8.15%

Chance of winning

CON

30.8%

LAB

68.4%

LIB

0.2%

OTH

0.6%

Top

LAB Gain

Somerton and Frome
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
MP: David Heath (LIB)
Electorate: 81,548
Turnout: 74.33%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	28,793	47.50%	34.89%
CON	26,976	44.51%	39.21%
LAB	2,675	4.41%	16.86%
OTH	2,168	3.58%	9.04%
LIB Majority	1,817	3.00%	Pred Maj 4.32%

Chance of winning

LIB

33.8%

CON

60.7%

LAB

4.7%

OTH

0.8%

Top

CON Gain

South Holland and The Deepings
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP: John Hayes (CON)
Electorate: 76,243
Turnout: 65.83%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,639	59.06%	53.59%
LIB	7,759	15.46%	5.05%
LAB	7,024	14.00%	25.03%
OTH	5,766	11.49%	16.33%
CON Majority	21,880	43.60%	Pred Maj 28.57%

Chance of winning

CON

94.5%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

5.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

South Shields
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: David Miliband (LAB)
Electorate: 63,294
Turnout: 57.70%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,995	52.02%	62.81%
CON	7,886	21.59%	15.97%
LIB	5,189	14.21%	4.30%
OTH	4,448	12.18%	16.92%
LAB Majority	11,109	30.42%	Pred Maj 45.89%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.7%

CON

0.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Southampton Itchen
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: John Denham (LAB)
Electorate: 74,532
Turnout: 59.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,326	36.76%	49.44%
CON	16,134	36.33%	31.04%
LIB	9,256	20.84%	7.88%
OTH	2,696	6.07%	11.64%
LAB Majority	192	0.43%	Pred Maj 18.40%

Chance of winning

LAB

85.3%

CON

13.7%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.9%

Top

Southampton Test
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Alan Whitehead (LAB)
Electorate: 71,931
Turnout: 61.43%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,001	38.48%	51.16%
CON	14,588	33.01%	27.73%
LIB	9,865	22.33%	9.36%
OTH	2,733	6.19%	11.75%
LAB Majority	2,413	5.46%	Pred Maj 23.43%

Chance of winning

LAB

90.1%

CON

9.0%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.8%

Top

Southend West
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: David Amess (CON)
Electorate: 66,527
Turnout: 65.55%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,086	46.06%	40.78%
LIB	12,816	29.39%	15.81%
LAB	5,850	13.42%	26.52%
OTH	4,854	11.13%	16.89%
CON Majority	7,270	16.67%	Pred Maj 14.25%

Chance of winning

CON

75.5%

LIB

1.8%

LAB

19.9%

OTH

2.8%

Top

Southport
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: John Pugh (LIB)
Electorate: 67,202
Turnout: 65.11%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,707	49.61%	35.44%
CON	15,683	35.84%	30.05%
LAB	4,116	9.41%	23.28%
OTH	2,251	5.14%	11.23%
LIB Majority	6,024	13.77%	Pred Maj 5.39%

Chance of winning

LIB

48.1%

CON

28.8%

LAB

20.0%

OTH

3.1%

Top

Spelthorne
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Kwasi Kwarteng (CON)
Electorate: 70,479
Turnout: 67.12%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,261	47.06%	41.77%
LIB	12,242	25.88%	12.92%
LAB	7,789	16.47%	29.15%
OTH	5,012	10.60%	16.16%
CON Majority	10,019	21.18%	Pred Maj 12.63%

Chance of winning

CON

73.4%

LIB

0.8%

LAB

23.8%

OTH

2.0%

Top

St Albans
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: Anne Main (CON)
Electorate: 70,058
Turnout: 75.42%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,533	40.76%	35.47%
LIB	19,228	36.39%	22.82%
LAB	9,288	17.58%	30.69%
OTH	2,786	5.27%	11.03%
CON Majority	2,305	4.36%	Pred Maj 4.78%

Chance of winning

CON

52.4%

LIB

8.4%

LAB

37.8%

OTH

1.4%

Top

St Austell and Newquay
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP: Stephen Gilbert (LIB)
Electorate: 76,346
Turnout: 61.87%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,189	42.74%	30.12%
CON	18,877	39.96%	34.66%
LAB	3,386	7.17%	19.62%
OTH	2,779	5.88%	11.35%
MIN	2,007	4.25%	4.25%
LIB Majority	1,312	2.78%	Pred Maj 4.54%

Chance of winning

LIB

28.3%

CON

57.5%

LAB

12.3%

OTH

1.9%

MIN

0.0%

Top

CON Gain

St Helens North
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Dave Watts (LAB)
Electorate: 74,985
Turnout: 59.42%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,041	51.71%	65.58%
CON	9,940	22.31%	16.52%
LIB	8,992	20.18%	6.02%
OTH	2,583	5.80%	11.89%
LAB Majority	13,101	29.40%	Pred Maj 49.06%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.7%

CON

0.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

St Helens South and Whiston
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Shaun Woodward (LAB)
Electorate: 77,975
Turnout: 59.10%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,364	52.87%	66.30%
LIB	10,242	22.23%	8.06%
CON	8,209	17.81%	12.66%
OTH	3,266	7.09%	12.98%
LAB Majority	14,122	30.65%	Pred Maj 53.32%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.9%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

St Ives
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP: Andrew George (LIB)
Electorate: 66,930
Turnout: 68.61%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,619	42.72%	30.11%
CON	17,900	38.98%	33.68%
LAB	3,751	8.17%	20.62%
MIN	2,560	5.57%	5.57%
OTH	2,091	4.55%	10.02%
LIB Majority	1,719	3.74%	Pred Maj 3.57%

Chance of winning

LIB

30.1%

CON

54.0%

LAB

14.7%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

1.2%

Top

CON Gain

Stafford
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Jeremy Lefroy (CON)
Electorate: 70,587
Turnout: 71.17%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,047	43.88%	38.51%
LAB	16,587	33.02%	44.76%
LIB	8,211	16.34%	4.82%
OTH	3,394	6.76%	11.91%
CON Majority	5,460	10.87%	Pred Maj 6.25%

Chance of winning

CON

35.4%

LAB

64.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.6%

Top

LAB Gain

Staffordshire Moorlands
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Karen Bradley (CON)
Electorate: 62,071
Turnout: 70.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,793	45.17%	39.80%
LAB	13,104	29.91%	41.85%
LIB	7,338	16.75%	4.94%
OTH	3,580	8.17%	13.41%
CON Majority	6,689	15.27%	Pred Maj 2.05%

Chance of winning

CON

44.4%

LAB

54.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.7%

Top

LAB Gain

Staffordshire South
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Gavin Williamson (CON)
Electorate: 73,390
Turnout: 68.73%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,834	53.20%	47.83%
LAB	10,244	20.31%	32.23%
LIB	8,427	16.71%	4.92%
OTH	4,935	9.78%	15.02%
CON Majority	16,590	32.89%	Pred Maj 15.60%

Chance of winning

CON

81.8%

LAB

17.7%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Stalybridge and Hyde
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Jonathan Reynolds (LAB)
Electorate: 69,037
Turnout: 59.21%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,189	39.60%	52.01%
CON	13,445	32.89%	27.10%
LIB	6,965	17.04%	4.97%
OTH	4,280	10.47%	15.92%
LAB Majority	2,744	6.71%	Pred Maj 24.92%

Chance of winning

LAB

92.2%

CON

6.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.9%

Top

Stevenage
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: Stephen McPartland (CON)
Electorate: 68,937
Turnout: 64.77%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,491	41.41%	36.13%
LAB	14,913	33.40%	44.93%
LIB	7,432	16.64%	5.35%
OTH	3,815	8.54%	13.60%
CON Majority	3,578	8.01%	Pred Maj 8.80%

Chance of winning

CON

28.4%

LAB

70.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.7%

Top

LAB Gain

Stockport
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Ann Coffey (LAB)
Electorate: 63,525
Turnout: 61.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,697	42.67%	56.54%
CON	9,913	25.33%	19.54%
LIB	9,778	24.99%	10.82%
OTH	2,740	7.00%	13.09%
LAB Majority	6,784	17.34%	Pred Maj 37.00%

Chance of winning

LAB

96.9%

CON

2.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Stockton North
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: Alex Cunningham (LAB)
Electorate: 67,363
Turnout: 58.63%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,923	42.85%	54.53%
CON	10,247	25.94%	20.32%
LIB	6,342	16.06%	4.86%
OTH	5,986	15.16%	20.29%
LAB Majority	6,676	16.90%	Pred Maj 34.22%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.1%

CON

2.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.9%

Top

Stockton South
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: James Wharton (CON)
Electorate: 74,552
Turnout: 67.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,577	38.93%	33.31%
LAB	19,245	38.27%	49.51%
LIB	7,600	15.11%	4.58%
OTH	3,862	7.68%	12.61%
CON Majority	332	0.66%	Pred Maj 16.20%

Chance of winning

CON

14.9%

LAB

84.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Stoke-on-Trent Central
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Tristram Hunt (LAB)
Electorate: 60,995
Turnout: 53.23%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	12,605	38.82%	52.36%
LIB	7,039	21.68%	7.57%
CON	6,833	21.04%	15.67%
OTH	5,993	18.46%	24.40%
LAB Majority	5,566	17.14%	Pred Maj 27.96%

Chance of winning

LAB

93.8%

LIB

0.0%

CON

2.5%

OTH

3.7%

Top

Stoke-on-Trent North
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Joan Walley (LAB)
Electorate: 72,052
Turnout: 55.79%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,815	44.32%	56.74%
CON	9,580	23.83%	18.46%
LIB	7,120	17.71%	5.22%
OTH	5,681	14.13%	19.58%
LAB Majority	8,235	20.49%	Pred Maj 37.15%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.9%

CON

1.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.7%

Top

Stoke-on-Trent South
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Robert Flello (LAB)
Electorate: 68,031
Turnout: 58.58%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,446	38.76%	50.27%
CON	11,316	28.40%	23.02%
LIB	6,323	15.87%	4.68%
MIN	3,762	9.44%	9.44%
OTH	3,005	7.54%	12.59%
LAB Majority	4,130	10.36%	Pred Maj 27.25%

Chance of winning

LAB

94.7%

CON

4.9%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Stone
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: William Cash (CON)
Electorate: 66,979
Turnout: 70.51%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,890	50.58%	45.21%
LIB	10,598	22.44%	8.33%
LAB	9,770	20.69%	34.22%
OTH	2,971	6.29%	12.23%
CON Majority	13,292	28.14%	Pred Maj 10.99%

Chance of winning

CON

73.6%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

25.8%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Stourbridge
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
MP: Margot James (CON)
Electorate: 69,637
Turnout: 67.83%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,153	42.67%	37.29%
LAB	14,989	31.73%	43.49%
LIB	7,733	16.37%	4.82%
OTH	4,359	9.23%	14.39%
CON Majority	5,164	10.93%	Pred Maj 6.20%

Chance of winning

CON

35.2%

LAB

64.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.8%

Top

LAB Gain

Stratford-on-Avon
County/Area: Warwickshire (East Midlands)
MP: Nadhim Zahawi (CON)
Electorate: 69,516
Turnout: 72.71%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,052	51.55%	46.23%
LIB	14,706	29.10%	15.38%
LAB	4,809	9.51%	22.74%
OTH	3,129	6.19%	12.00%
MIN	1,846	3.65%	3.65%
CON Majority	11,346	22.45%	Pred Maj 23.49%

Chance of winning

CON

89.2%

LIB

0.7%

LAB

9.1%

OTH

1.0%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Streatham
County/Area: Lambeth (South London)
MP: Chuka Umunna (LAB)
Electorate: 74,531
Turnout: 62.84%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,037	42.78%	56.60%
LIB	16,778	35.82%	21.04%
CON	8,578	18.31%	13.21%
OTH	1,444	3.08%	9.15%
LAB Majority	3,259	6.96%	Pred Maj 35.55%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.6%

LIB

0.6%

CON

1.4%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Stretford and Urmston
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Kate Green (LAB)
Electorate: 70,091
Turnout: 64.07%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,821	48.59%	60.94%
CON	12,886	28.69%	22.90%
LIB	7,601	16.92%	4.94%
OTH	2,602	5.79%	11.22%
LAB Majority	8,935	19.90%	Pred Maj 38.04%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.6%

CON

1.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Stroud
County/Area: Gloucestershire (West)
MP: Neil Carmichael (CON)
Electorate: 78,305
Turnout: 74.03%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,679	40.84%	35.55%
LAB	22,380	38.60%	49.06%
LIB	8,955	15.45%	5.70%
OTH	2,959	5.10%	9.69%
CON Majority	1,299	2.24%	Pred Maj 13.51%

Chance of winning

CON

19.7%

LAB

80.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

LAB Gain

Suffolk Central and Ipswich North
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: Daniel Poulter (CON)
Electorate: 75,848
Turnout: 70.43%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,125	50.78%	45.49%
LIB	13,339	24.97%	11.39%
LAB	8,636	16.17%	29.28%
OTH	4,320	8.09%	13.84%
CON Majority	13,786	25.81%	Pred Maj 16.21%

Chance of winning

CON

82.4%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

16.5%

OTH

0.8%

Top

Suffolk Coastal
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: Therese Coffey (CON)
Electorate: 76,687
Turnout: 71.58%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,475	46.41%	41.12%
LIB	16,347	29.78%	16.20%
LAB	8,812	16.05%	29.16%
OTH	4,259	7.76%	13.51%
CON Majority	9,128	16.63%	Pred Maj 11.96%

Chance of winning

CON

73.0%

LIB

1.8%

LAB

24.0%

OTH

1.2%

Top

Suffolk South
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: Tim Yeo (CON)
Electorate: 72,498
Turnout: 70.92%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,550	47.75%	42.46%
LIB	15,861	30.85%	17.27%
LAB	7,368	14.33%	27.44%
OTH	3,637	7.07%	12.83%
CON Majority	8,689	16.90%	Pred Maj 15.02%

Chance of winning

CON

78.3%

LIB

1.9%

LAB

18.6%

OTH

1.2%

Top

Suffolk West
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: Matthew Hancock (CON)
Electorate: 74,413
Turnout: 64.62%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,312	50.56%	45.27%
LIB	11,262	23.42%	9.84%
LAB	7,089	14.74%	27.85%
OTH	5,426	11.28%	17.04%
CON Majority	13,050	27.14%	Pred Maj 17.42%

Chance of winning

CON

83.9%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

14.5%

OTH

1.3%

Top

Sunderland Central
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: Julie Elliott (LAB)
Electorate: 74,485
Turnout: 57.01%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,495	45.91%	58.03%
CON	12,770	30.07%	24.45%
LIB	7,191	16.93%	5.13%
OTH	3,007	7.08%	12.40%
LAB Majority	6,725	15.84%	Pred Maj 33.58%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.6%

CON

2.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Surrey East
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Sam Gyimah (CON)
Electorate: 76,855
Turnout: 71.09%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,007	56.75%	51.46%
LIB	14,133	25.87%	12.90%
LAB	4,925	9.01%	21.69%
OTH	4,575	8.37%	13.94%
CON Majority	16,874	30.88%	Pred Maj 29.77%

Chance of winning

CON

95.2%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

4.1%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Surrey Heath
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Michael Gove (CON)
Electorate: 77,690
Turnout: 69.95%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,326	57.64%	52.35%
LIB	14,037	25.83%	12.87%
LAB	5,552	10.22%	22.90%
OTH	3,432	6.31%	11.88%
CON Majority	17,289	31.81%	Pred Maj 29.46%

Chance of winning

CON

95.3%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

4.3%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Surrey South West
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Jeremy Hunt (CON)
Electorate: 77,980
Turnout: 73.43%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,605	58.69%	53.40%
LIB	17,287	30.19%	17.23%
LAB	3,419	5.97%	18.65%
OTH	2,948	5.15%	10.72%
CON Majority	16,318	28.50%	Pred Maj 34.75%

Chance of winning

CON

96.8%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

2.8%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Sussex Mid
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
MP: Nicholas Soames (CON)
Electorate: 77,182
Turnout: 72.37%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,329	50.72%	45.43%
LIB	20,927	37.47%	24.51%
LAB	3,689	6.60%	19.29%
OTH	2,910	5.21%	10.78%
CON Majority	7,402	13.25%	Pred Maj 20.93%

Chance of winning

CON

89.0%

LIB

4.6%

LAB

5.7%

OTH

0.7%

Top

Sutton and Cheam
County/Area: Sutton (South London)
MP: Paul Burstow (LIB)
Electorate: 66,658
Turnout: 72.77%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	22,156	45.67%	30.90%
CON	20,548	42.36%	36.78%
LAB	3,376	6.96%	21.11%
OTH	2,428	5.01%	11.22%
LIB Majority	1,608	3.31%	Pred Maj 5.88%

Chance of winning

LIB

26.3%

CON

54.8%

LAB

16.1%

OTH

2.8%

Top

CON Gain

Sutton Coldfield
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Andrew Mitchell (CON)
Electorate: 74,489
Turnout: 67.91%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,303	53.97%	48.60%
LAB	10,298	20.36%	32.92%
LIB	9,117	18.02%	5.31%
OTH	3,871	7.65%	13.17%
CON Majority	17,005	33.61%	Pred Maj 15.67%

Chance of winning

CON

82.1%

LAB

17.5%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Swindon North
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP: Justin Tomlinson (CON)
Electorate: 78,391
Turnout: 64.16%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,408	44.55%	39.25%
LAB	15,348	30.52%	41.75%
LIB	8,668	17.23%	6.36%
OTH	3,871	7.70%	12.63%
CON Majority	7,060	14.04%	Pred Maj 2.50%

Chance of winning

CON

42.4%

LAB

56.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.7%

Top

LAB Gain

Swindon South
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP: Robert Buckland (CON)
Electorate: 72,622
Turnout: 64.88%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,687	41.78%	36.48%
LAB	16,143	34.26%	45.67%
LIB	8,305	17.63%	6.51%
OTH	2,984	6.33%	11.34%
CON Majority	3,544	7.52%	Pred Maj 9.19%

Chance of winning

CON

27.7%

LAB

71.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.5%

Top

LAB Gain