Constituency List: England R-S

Rayleigh and Wickford	Saffron Walden	Somerset North	Stoke-on-Trent Central
Reading East	Salford and Eccles	Somerset North East	Stoke-on-Trent North
Reading West	Salisbury	Somerton and Frome	Stoke-on-Trent South
Redcar	Scarborough and Whitby	South Holland and The Deepings	Stone
Redditch	Scunthorpe	South Shields	Stourbridge
Reigate	Sedgefield	Southampton Itchen	Stratford-on-Avon
Ribble South	Sefton Central	Southampton Test	Streatham
Ribble Valley	Selby and Ainsty	Southend West	Stretford and Urmston
Richmond	Sevenoaks	Southport	Stroud
Richmond Park	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	Spelthorne	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North
Rochdale	Sheffield Central	St Albans	Suffolk Coastal
Rochester and Strood	Sheffield Hallam	St Austell and Newquay	Suffolk South
Rochford and Southend East	Sheffield Heeley	St Helens North	Suffolk West
Romford	Sheffield South East	St Helens South and Whiston	Sunderland Central
Romsey and Southampton North	Sherwood	St Ives	Surrey East
Rossendale and Darwen	Shipley	Stafford	Surrey Heath
Rother Valley	Shrewsbury and Atcham	Staffordshire Moorlands	Surrey South West
Rotherham	Shropshire North	Staffordshire South	Sussex Mid
Rugby	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Stalybridge and Hyde	Sutton and Cheam
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner	Skipton and Ripon	Stevenage	Sutton Coldfield
Runnymede and Weybridge	Sleaford and North Hykeham	Stockport	Swindon North
Rushcliffe	Slough	Stockton North	Swindon South
Rutland and Melton	Solihull	Stockton South

Rayleigh and Wickford
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP Mark Francois (CON)

Electorate

75,905

Turnout

68.96%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

30,257

57.81%

60.82%

98.2%

LIB

7,919

15.13%

7.39%

0.0%

LAB

7,577

14.48%

21.53%

1.8%

OTH

6,590

12.59%

10.26%

0.0%

CON Majority

22,338

42.68%

Pred Maj

39.29%

Reading East
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP Rob Wilson (CON)

Electorate

74,922

Turnout

66.72%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

21,269

42.55%

45.78%

77.1%

LIB

13,664

27.34%

17.57%

1.7%

LAB

12,729

25.47%

33.01%

21.1%

OTH

2,323

4.65%

3.65%

0.1%

CON Majority

7,605

15.21%

Pred Maj

12.76%

Reading West
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP Alok Sharma (CON)

Electorate

72,118

Turnout

65.91%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

20,523

43.18%

46.50%

68.6%

LAB

14,519

30.55%

38.33%

31.1%

LIB

9,546

20.08%

10.31%

0.2%

OTH

2,942

6.19%

4.86%

0.1%

CON Majority

6,004

12.63%

Pred Maj

8.18%

Redcar
County/Area: Cleveland (North)
MP Ian Swales (LIB)

Electorate

67,125

Turnout

62.51%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LIB

18,955

45.17%

34.66%

31.0%

LAB

13,741

32.75%

41.09%

62.4%

CON

5,790

13.80%

17.36%

6.1%

OTH

3,477

8.29%

6.89%

0.5%

LIB Majority

5,214

12.43%

Pred Maj

6.43%

LAB Gain

Redditch
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (Severn)
MP Karen Lumley (CON)

Electorate

68,550

Turnout

64.21%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

19,138

43.48%

46.76%

69.3%

LAB

13,317

30.25%

37.94%

30.6%

LIB

7,750

17.61%

8.25%

0.0%

OTH

3,813

8.66%

7.06%

0.1%

CON Majority

5,821

13.22%

Pred Maj

8.82%

Reigate
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP Crispin Blunt (CON)

Electorate

71,604

Turnout

69.80%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

26,688

53.40%

56.91%

97.1%

LIB

13,097

26.21%

16.44%

0.3%

LAB

5,672

11.35%

19.56%

2.6%

OTH

4,521

9.05%

7.10%

0.0%

CON Majority

13,591

27.19%

Pred Maj

37.35%

Ribble South
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP Lorraine Fullbrook (CON)

Electorate

75,822

Turnout

67.87%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

23,396

45.47%

48.06%

67.6%

LAB

17,842

34.67%

40.74%

32.3%

LIB

7,271

14.13%

6.59%

0.0%

OTH

2,949

5.73%

4.61%

0.1%

CON Majority

5,554

10.79%

Pred Maj

7.32%

Ribble Valley
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP Nigel Evans (CON)

Electorate

78,068

Turnout

66.98%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

26,298

50.30%

53.91%

88.4%

LAB

11,529

22.05%

30.50%

11.2%

LIB

10,732

20.53%

9.85%

0.3%

OTH

3,728

7.13%

5.74%

0.1%

CON Majority

14,769

28.25%

Pred Maj

23.40%

Richmond
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP William Hague (CON)

Electorate

79,478

Turnout

67.20%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

33,541

62.80%

65.84%

99.2%

LIB

10,205

19.11%

9.41%

0.0%

LAB

8,150

15.26%

22.37%

0.8%

OTH

1,516

2.84%

2.38%

0.0%

CON Majority

23,336

43.69%

Pred Maj

43.46%

Richmond Park
County/Area: Richmond upon Thames (South London)
MP Zac Goldsmith (CON)

Electorate

77,060

Turnout

76.91%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

29,461

49.71%

53.22%

91.0%

LIB

25,370

42.81%

31.67%

7.3%

LAB

2,979

5.03%

13.25%

1.7%

OTH

1,458

2.46%

1.86%

0.0%

CON Majority

4,091

6.90%

Pred Maj

21.56%

Rochdale
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP Simon Danczuk (LAB)

Electorate

78,952

Turnout

58.15%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

16,699

36.38%

45.37%

81.6%

LIB

15,810

34.44%

23.76%

6.4%

CON

8,305

18.09%

21.93%

11.4%

OTH

5,093

11.09%

8.93%

0.6%

LAB Majority

889

1.94%

Pred Maj

21.61%

Rochester and Strood
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP Mark Reckless (CON)

Electorate

73,882

Turnout

64.93%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

23,604

49.20%

51.97%

85.4%

LAB

13,651

28.46%

34.94%

14.6%

LIB

7,800

16.26%

8.32%

0.0%

OTH

2,916

6.08%

4.77%

0.0%

CON Majority

9,953

20.75%

Pred Maj

17.04%

Rochford and Southend East
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP James Duddridge (CON)

Electorate

71,080

Turnout

58.57%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

19,509

46.86%

50.58%

86.6%

LAB

8,459

20.32%

29.02%

12.8%

LIB

8,084

19.42%

9.48%

0.3%

OTH

5,579

13.40%

10.92%

0.3%

CON Majority

11,050

26.54%

Pred Maj

21.56%

Romford
County/Area: Havering (North London)
MP Andrew Rosindell (CON)

Electorate

71,193

Turnout

65.29%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

26,031

56.00%

58.53%

96.6%

LAB

9,077

19.53%

25.44%

3.4%

LIB

5,572

11.99%

5.31%

0.0%

OTH

3,363

7.24%

5.48%

0.0%

MIN

2,438

5.25%

0.0%

CON Majority

16,954

36.48%

Pred Maj

33.09%

Romsey and Southampton North
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP Caroline Nokes (CON)

Electorate

66,901

Turnout

73.15%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

24,345

49.75%

52.84%

92.7%

LIB

20,189

41.25%

31.48%

6.4%

LAB

3,116

6.37%

13.61%

0.9%

OTH

1,289

2.63%

2.07%

0.0%

CON Majority

4,156

8.49%

Pred Maj

21.36%

Rossendale and Darwen
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP Jake Berry (CON)

Electorate

73,003

Turnout

64.56%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

19,691

41.78%

45.14%

59.2%

LAB

15,198

32.25%

40.10%

40.6%

LIB

8,541

18.12%

8.45%

0.0%

OTH

3,698

7.85%

6.32%

0.2%

CON Majority

4,493

9.53%

Pred Maj

5.04%

Rother Valley
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP Kevin Barron (LAB)

Electorate

72,841

Turnout

64.19%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

19,147

40.95%

48.62%

81.7%

CON

13,281

28.40%

31.68%

18.0%

LIB

8,111

17.35%

8.54%

0.1%

OTH

6,219

13.30%

11.15%

0.2%

LAB Majority

5,866

12.55%

Pred Maj

16.94%

Rotherham
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP Denis MacShane (LAB)

Electorate

63,565

Turnout

59.00%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

16,741

44.64%

51.70%

96.1%

CON

6,279

16.74%

19.76%

3.9%

LIB

5,994

15.98%

7.87%

0.0%

OTH

4,586

12.23%

10.25%

0.0%

MIN

3,906

10.41%

0.0%

LAB Majority

10,462

27.89%

Pred Maj

31.94%

Rugby
County/Area: Warwickshire (East Midlands)
MP Mark Pawsey (CON)

Electorate

68,914

Turnout

68.88%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

20,901

44.03%

47.39%

69.5%

LAB

14,901

31.39%

39.25%

30.4%

LIB

9,434

19.87%

9.60%

0.0%

OTH

2,232

4.70%

3.76%

0.1%

CON Majority

6,000

12.64%

Pred Maj

8.14%

Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
County/Area: Hillingdon (South London)
MP Nick Hurd (CON)

Electorate

70,873

Turnout

70.84%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

28,866

57.50%

60.73%

96.5%

LAB

9,806

19.53%

27.10%

3.4%

LIB

8,345

16.62%

7.36%

0.1%

OTH

3,188

6.35%

4.81%

0.0%

CON Majority

19,060

37.96%

Pred Maj

33.63%

Runnymede and Weybridge
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP Philip Hammond (CON)

Electorate

72,566

Turnout

66.35%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

26,915

55.90%

59.41%

97.4%

LIB

10,406

21.61%

11.84%

0.1%

LAB

6,446

13.39%

21.61%

2.5%

OTH

4,383

9.10%

7.14%

0.0%

CON Majority

16,509

34.29%

Pred Maj

37.80%

Rushcliffe
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP Kenneth Clarke (CON)

Electorate

72,955

Turnout

73.59%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

27,470

51.17%

54.65%

92.1%

LIB

11,659

21.72%

11.37%

0.3%

LAB

11,128

20.73%

28.87%

7.6%

OTH

3,430

6.39%

5.11%

0.0%

CON Majority

15,811

29.45%

Pred Maj

25.77%

Rutland and Melton
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP Alan Duncan (CON)

Electorate

77,185

Turnout

71.54%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

28,228

51.12%

54.75%

95.6%

LIB

14,228

25.77%

15.42%

0.3%

LAB

7,893

14.29%

22.78%

4.1%

OTH

4,871

8.82%

7.05%

0.0%

CON Majority

14,000

25.35%

Pred Maj

31.96%

Saffron Walden
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP Sir Alan Haselhurst (CON)

Electorate

76,035

Turnout

71.51%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

30,155

55.46%

58.94%

98.4%

LIB

14,913

27.43%

17.19%

0.3%

LAB

5,288

9.73%

17.85%

1.3%

OTH

4,013

7.38%

6.02%

0.0%

CON Majority

15,242

28.03%

Pred Maj

41.08%

Salford and Eccles
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP Hazel Blears (LAB)

Electorate

75,482

Turnout

55.02%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

16,655

40.10%

49.37%

86.8%

LIB

10,930

26.32%

15.64%

1.5%

CON

8,497

20.46%

24.42%

11.3%

OTH

5,450

13.12%

10.56%

0.4%

LAB Majority

5,725

13.78%

Pred Maj

24.95%

Salisbury
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP John Glen (CON)

Electorate

67,429

Turnout

71.90%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

23,859

49.21%

52.51%

94.6%

LIB

17,893

36.91%

27.40%

3.2%

LAB

3,690

7.61%

15.32%

2.2%

OTH

3,039

6.27%

4.77%

0.0%

CON Majority

5,966

12.31%

Pred Maj

25.11%

Scarborough and Whitby
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP Robert Goodwill (CON)

Electorate

75,443

Turnout

65.32%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

21,108

42.83%

46.27%

74.5%

LAB

12,978

26.33%

34.39%

24.8%

LIB

11,093

22.51%

12.36%

0.5%

OTH

4,103

8.33%

6.98%

0.2%

CON Majority

8,130

16.50%

Pred Maj

11.88%

Scunthorpe
County/Area: Humberside (Humberside)
MP Nic Dakin (LAB)

Electorate

63,089

Turnout

58.70%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

14,640

39.53%

47.11%

73.8%

CON

12,091

32.65%

35.89%

25.9%

LIB

6,774

18.29%

9.01%

0.1%

OTH

3,529

9.53%

7.99%

0.2%

LAB Majority

2,549

6.88%

Pred Maj

11.23%

Sedgefield
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP Phil Wilson (LAB)

Electorate

64,727

Turnout

62.14%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

18,141

45.10%

53.81%

92.0%

CON

9,445

23.48%

27.20%

7.8%

LIB

8,033

19.97%

9.48%

0.0%

OTH

4,603

11.44%

9.51%

0.2%

LAB Majority

8,696

21.62%

Pred Maj

26.61%

Sefton Central
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP Bill Esterson (LAB)

Electorate

67,512

Turnout

71.78%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

20,307

41.90%

49.93%

75.9%

CON

16,445

33.93%

37.36%

24.0%

LIB

9,656

19.92%

9.29%

0.1%

OTH

2,055

4.24%

3.41%

0.0%

LAB Majority

3,862

7.97%

Pred Maj

12.57%

Selby and Ainsty
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP Nigel Adams (CON)

Electorate

72,789

Turnout

71.07%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

25,562

49.42%

52.46%

87.1%

LAB

13,297

25.71%

32.82%

12.8%

LIB

9,180

17.75%

8.74%

0.1%

OTH

3,689

7.13%

5.98%

0.0%

CON Majority

12,265

23.71%

Pred Maj

19.63%

Sevenoaks
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP Michael Fallon (CON)

Electorate

69,591

Turnout

71.00%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

28,076

56.82%

60.30%

98.0%

LIB

10,561

21.38%

11.61%

0.1%

LAB

6,541

13.24%

21.38%

1.9%

OTH

4,230

8.56%

6.72%

0.0%

CON Majority

17,515

35.45%

Pred Maj

38.93%

Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP David Blunkett (LAB)

Electorate

68,186

Turnout

57.07%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

21,400

54.99%

62.75%

99.9%

LIB

7,768

19.96%

9.83%

0.0%

CON

4,468

11.48%

14.79%

0.1%

MIN

3,026

7.78%

0.0%

OTH

2,252

5.79%

4.85%

0.0%

LAB Majority

13,632

35.03%

Pred Maj

47.95%

Sheffield Central
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP Paul Blomfield (LAB)

Electorate

69,519

Turnout

59.65%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

17,138

41.33%

49.30%

88.3%

LIB

16,973

40.93%

30.78%

9.3%

CON

4,206

10.14%

13.55%

2.3%

OTH

3,151

7.60%

6.37%

0.1%

LAB Majority

165

0.40%

Pred Maj

18.52%

Sheffield Hallam
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP Nick Clegg (LIB)

Electorate

69,378

Turnout

73.70%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LIB

27,324

53.44%

43.28%

80.6%

CON

12,040

23.55%

26.92%

11.6%

LAB

8,228

16.09%

23.99%

7.7%

OTH

3,543

6.93%

5.81%

0.1%

LIB Majority

15,284

29.89%

Pred Maj

16.37%

Sheffield Heeley
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP Meg Munn (LAB)

Electorate

65,869

Turnout

62.05%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

17,409

42.59%

51.03%

93.0%

LIB

11,602

28.39%

18.24%

1.4%

CON

7,081

17.33%

20.93%

5.4%

OTH

4,779

11.69%

9.81%

0.2%

LAB Majority

5,807

14.21%

Pred Maj

30.10%

Sheffield South East
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP Clive Betts (LAB)

Electorate

67,284

Turnout

61.54%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

20,169

48.71%

57.01%

96.8%

LIB

9,664

23.34%

13.19%

0.0%

CON

7,202

17.39%

20.94%

3.2%

OTH

4,373

10.56%

8.86%

0.0%

LAB Majority

10,505

25.37%

Pred Maj

36.07%

Sherwood
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP Mark Spencer (CON)

Electorate

71,043

Turnout

68.91%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

19,211

39.24%

41.97%

41.2%

LAB

18,997

38.81%

45.19%

58.8%

LIB

7,283

14.88%

7.18%

0.0%

OTH

3,463

7.07%

5.65%

0.0%

CON Majority

214

0.44%

Pred Maj

3.22%

LAB Gain

Shipley
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP Philip Davies (CON)

Electorate

67,689

Turnout

73.02%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

24,002

48.56%

51.74%

82.7%

LAB

14,058

28.44%

35.89%

17.2%

LIB

9,890

20.01%

9.86%

0.1%

OTH

1,477

2.99%

2.51%

0.0%

CON Majority

9,944

20.12%

Pred Maj

15.85%

Shrewsbury and Atcham
County/Area: Shropshire (Severn)
MP Daniel Kawczynski (CON)

Electorate

75,438

Turnout

70.32%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

23,313

43.95%

47.49%

82.8%

LIB

15,369

28.97%

18.34%

1.8%

LAB

10,915

20.58%

28.87%

15.2%

OTH

3,448

6.50%

5.30%

0.2%

CON Majority

7,944

14.98%

Pred Maj

18.62%

Shropshire North
County/Area: Shropshire (Severn)
MP Owen Paterson (CON)

Electorate

78,926

Turnout

65.72%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

26,692

51.46%

55.17%

93.4%

LIB

10,864

20.95%

10.31%

0.2%

LAB

9,406

18.13%

26.81%

6.3%

OTH

4,907

9.46%

7.71%

0.1%

CON Majority

15,828

30.52%

Pred Maj

28.36%

Sittingbourne and Sheppey
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP Gordon Henderson (CON)

Electorate

75,354

Turnout

64.47%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

24,313

50.05%

53.02%

88.9%

LAB

11,930

24.56%

31.52%

11.0%

LIB

7,943

16.35%

8.36%

0.1%

OTH

4,392

9.04%

7.09%

0.0%

CON Majority

12,383

25.49%

Pred Maj

21.50%

Skipton and Ripon
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP Julian Smith (CON)

Electorate

77,381

Turnout

70.72%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

27,685

50.59%

53.97%

96.1%

LIB

17,735

32.41%

22.26%

1.0%

LAB

5,498

10.05%

17.95%

2.9%

OTH

3,806

6.95%

5.83%

0.0%

CON Majority

9,950

18.18%

Pred Maj

31.71%

Sleaford and North Hykeham
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP Stephen Phillips (CON)

Electorate

85,550

Turnout

69.59%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

30,719

51.60%

54.70%

95.5%

LIB

10,814

18.17%

8.95%

0.1%

LAB

10,051

16.88%

24.13%

4.4%

OTH

4,140

6.95%

5.83%

0.0%

MIN

3,806

6.39%

0.0%

CON Majority

19,905

33.44%

Pred Maj

30.57%

Slough
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP Fiona Mactaggart (LAB)

Electorate

77,068

Turnout

61.95%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

21,884

45.84%

51.62%

83.6%

CON

16,361

34.27%

36.74%

16.3%

LIB

6,943

14.54%

7.44%

0.1%

OTH

2,554

5.35%

4.20%

0.0%

LAB Majority

5,523

11.57%

Pred Maj

14.88%

Solihull
County/Area: West Midlands (West Midlands)
MP Lorely Burt (LIB)

Electorate

77,863

Turnout

70.80%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LIB

23,635

42.87%

32.24%

16.3%

CON

23,460

42.55%

46.05%

79.1%

LAB

4,891

8.87%

17.06%

4.4%

OTH

3,143

5.70%

4.65%

0.2%

LIB Majority

175

0.32%

Pred Maj

13.82%

CON Gain

Somerset North
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP Liam Fox (CON)

Electorate

77,304

Turnout

74.95%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

28,549

49.27%

52.40%

94.4%

LIB

20,687

35.70%

26.19%

2.6%

LAB

6,448

11.13%

18.44%

3.0%

OTH

2,257

3.90%

2.97%

0.0%

CON Majority

7,862

13.57%

Pred Maj

26.20%

Somerset North East
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP Jacob Rees-Mogg (CON)

Electorate

67,412

Turnout

75.96%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

21,130

41.27%

44.45%

61.3%

LAB

16,216

31.67%

39.13%

38.1%

LIB

11,433

22.33%

12.82%

0.4%

OTH

2,424

4.73%

3.60%

0.2%

CON Majority

4,914

9.60%

Pred Maj

5.33%

Somerton and Frome
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
MP David Heath (LIB)

Electorate

81,548

Turnout

74.33%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LIB

28,793

47.50%

37.99%

23.9%

CON

26,976

44.51%

47.61%

75.2%

LAB

2,675

4.41%

11.67%

0.9%

OTH

2,168

3.58%

2.72%

0.0%

LIB Majority

1,817

3.00%

Pred Maj

9.62%

CON Gain

South Holland and The Deepings
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP John Hayes (CON)

Electorate

76,243

Turnout

65.83%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

29,639

59.06%

61.96%

99.0%

LIB

7,759

15.46%

7.61%

0.0%

LAB

7,024

14.00%

20.79%

1.0%

OTH

5,766

11.49%

9.63%

0.0%

CON Majority

21,880

43.60%

Pred Maj

41.17%

South Shields
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP David Miliband (LAB)

Electorate

63,294

Turnout

57.70%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

18,995

52.02%

58.69%

97.4%

CON

7,886

21.59%

24.45%

2.6%

LIB

5,189

14.21%

6.74%

0.0%

OTH

4,448

12.18%

10.13%

0.0%

LAB Majority

11,109

30.42%

Pred Maj

34.24%

Southampton Itchen
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP John Denham (LAB)

Electorate

74,532

Turnout

59.59%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

16,326

36.76%

44.52%

60.5%

CON

16,134

36.33%

39.64%

38.9%

LIB

9,256

20.84%

11.07%

0.3%

OTH

2,696

6.07%

4.76%

0.3%

LAB Majority

192

0.43%

Pred Maj

4.88%

Southampton Test
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP Alan Whitehead (LAB)

Electorate

71,931

Turnout

61.43%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

17,001

38.48%

46.25%

70.3%

CON

14,588

33.01%

36.34%

28.9%

LIB

9,865

22.33%

12.56%

0.6%

OTH

2,733

6.19%

4.85%

0.2%

LAB Majority

2,413

5.46%

Pred Maj

9.92%

Southend West
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP David Amess (CON)

Electorate

66,527

Turnout

65.55%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

20,086

46.06%

49.74%

91.7%

LIB

12,816

29.39%

19.16%

1.4%

LAB

5,850

13.42%

22.03%

6.8%

OTH

4,854

11.13%

9.07%

0.1%

CON Majority

7,270

16.67%

Pred Maj

27.71%

Southport
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP John Pugh (LIB)

Electorate

67,202

Turnout

65.11%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LIB

21,707

49.61%

38.93%

47.3%

CON

15,683

35.84%

39.34%

47.5%

LAB

4,116

9.41%

17.59%

5.0%

OTH

2,251

5.14%

4.14%

0.2%

LIB Majority

6,024

13.77%

Pred Maj

0.40%

CON Gain

Spelthorne
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP Kwasi Kwarteng (CON)

Electorate

70,479

Turnout

67.12%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

22,261

47.06%

50.67%

90.9%

LIB

12,242

25.88%

16.11%

0.6%

LAB

7,789

16.47%

24.91%

8.4%

OTH

5,012

10.60%

8.31%

0.1%

CON Majority

10,019

21.18%

Pred Maj

25.76%

St Albans
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP Anne Main (CON)

Electorate

70,058

Turnout

75.42%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

21,533

40.76%

44.11%

78.8%

LIB

19,228

36.39%

26.16%

8.3%

LAB

9,288

17.58%

25.43%

12.7%

OTH

2,786

5.27%

4.30%

0.2%

CON Majority

2,305

4.36%

Pred Maj

17.95%

St Austell and Newquay
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP Stephen Gilbert (LIB)

Electorate

76,346

Turnout

61.87%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LIB

20,189

42.74%

33.23%

21.3%

CON

18,877

39.96%

43.23%

75.5%

LAB

3,386

7.17%

14.82%

3.1%

OTH

2,779

5.88%

4.48%

0.1%

MIN

2,007

4.25%

0.0%

LIB Majority

1,312

2.78%

Pred Maj

10.00%

CON Gain

St Helens North
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP Dave Watts (LAB)

Electorate

74,985

Turnout

59.42%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

23,041

51.71%

59.98%

97.1%

CON

9,940

22.31%

25.84%

2.9%

LIB

8,992

20.18%

9.51%

0.0%

OTH

2,583

5.80%

4.67%

0.0%

LAB Majority

13,101

29.40%

Pred Maj

34.14%

St Helens South and Whiston
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP Shaun Woodward (LAB)

Electorate

77,975

Turnout

59.10%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

24,364

52.87%

61.32%

98.4%

LIB

10,242

22.23%

11.55%

0.0%

CON

8,209

17.81%

21.42%

1.6%

OTH

3,266

7.09%

5.70%

0.0%

LAB Majority

14,122

30.65%

Pred Maj

39.90%

St Ives
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP Andrew George (LIB)

Electorate

66,930

Turnout

68.61%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LIB

19,619

42.72%

33.21%

24.3%

CON

17,900

38.98%

42.15%

72.1%

LAB

3,751

8.17%

15.59%

3.5%

MIN

2,560

5.57%

0.0%

OTH

2,091

4.55%

3.47%

0.1%

LIB Majority

1,719

3.74%

Pred Maj

8.94%

CON Gain

Stafford
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP Jeremy Lefroy (CON)

Electorate

70,587

Turnout

71.17%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

22,047

43.88%

46.86%

65.6%

LAB

16,587

33.02%

39.98%

34.3%

LIB

8,211

16.34%

7.65%

0.0%

OTH

3,394

6.76%

5.51%

0.1%

CON Majority

5,460

10.87%

Pred Maj

6.88%

Staffordshire Moorlands
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP Karen Bradley (CON)

Electorate

62,071

Turnout

70.59%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

19,793

45.17%

48.29%

74.0%

LAB

13,104

29.91%

37.21%

25.9%

LIB

7,338

16.75%

7.84%

0.0%

OTH

3,580

8.17%

6.66%

0.1%

CON Majority

6,689

15.27%

Pred Maj

11.09%

Staffordshire South
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP Gavin Williamson (CON)

Electorate

73,390

Turnout

68.73%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

26,834

53.20%

56.40%

94.3%

LAB

10,244

20.31%

27.80%

5.6%

LIB

8,427

16.71%

7.82%

0.1%

OTH

4,935

9.78%

7.97%

0.0%

CON Majority

16,590

32.89%

Pred Maj

28.60%

Stalybridge and Hyde
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP Jonathan Reynolds (LAB)

Electorate

69,037

Turnout

59.21%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

16,189

39.60%

47.40%

72.9%

CON

13,445

32.89%

36.22%

26.8%

LIB

6,965

17.04%

7.94%

0.1%

OTH

4,280

10.47%

8.43%

0.2%

LAB Majority

2,744

6.71%

Pred Maj

11.18%

Stevenage
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP Stephen McPartland (CON)

Electorate

68,937

Turnout

64.77%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

18,491

41.41%

44.43%

57.4%

LAB

14,913

33.40%

40.47%

42.5%

LIB

7,432

16.64%

8.13%

0.0%

OTH

3,815

8.54%

6.96%

0.1%

CON Majority

3,578

8.01%

Pred Maj

3.96%

Stockport
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP Ann Coffey (LAB)

Electorate

63,525

Turnout

61.59%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

16,697

42.67%

51.11%

88.1%

CON

9,913

25.33%

28.94%

11.4%

LIB

9,778

24.99%

14.32%

0.3%

OTH

2,740

7.00%

5.64%

0.2%

LAB Majority

6,784

17.34%

Pred Maj

22.17%

Stockton North
County/Area: Cleveland (North)
MP Alex Cunningham (LAB)

Electorate

67,363

Turnout

58.63%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

16,923

42.85%

50.55%

87.0%

CON

10,247

25.94%

29.23%

12.8%

LIB

6,342

16.06%

7.62%

0.0%

OTH

5,986

15.16%

12.60%

0.2%

LAB Majority

6,676

16.90%

Pred Maj

21.31%

Stockton South
County/Area: Cleveland (North)
MP James Wharton (CON)

Electorate

74,552

Turnout

67.45%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

19,577

38.93%

41.70%

41.5%

LAB

19,245

38.27%

44.74%

58.4%

LIB

7,600

15.11%

7.17%

0.0%

OTH

3,862

7.68%

6.38%

0.1%

CON Majority

332

0.66%

Pred Maj

3.05%

LAB Gain

Stoke-on-Trent Central
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP Tristram Hunt (LAB)

Electorate

60,995

Turnout

53.23%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

12,605

38.82%

48.66%

82.5%

LIB

7,039

21.68%

11.05%

0.9%

CON

6,833

21.04%

25.25%

15.4%

OTH

5,993

18.46%

15.04%

1.2%

LAB Majority

5,566

17.14%

Pred Maj

23.41%

Stoke-on-Trent North
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP Joan Walley (LAB)

Electorate

72,052

Turnout

55.79%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

17,815

44.32%

52.75%

89.9%

CON

9,580

23.83%

27.44%

9.9%

LIB

7,120

17.71%

8.30%

0.0%

OTH

5,681

14.13%

11.52%

0.2%

LAB Majority

8,235

20.49%

Pred Maj

25.32%

Stoke-on-Trent South
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP Robert Flello (LAB)

Electorate

68,031

Turnout

58.58%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

15,446

38.76%

45.65%

80.7%

CON

11,316

28.40%

31.34%

19.0%

LIB

6,323

15.87%

7.43%

0.1%

MIN

3,762

9.44%

0.0%

OTH

3,005

7.54%

6.14%

0.2%

LAB Majority

4,130

10.36%

Pred Maj

14.31%

Stone
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP William Cash (CON)

Electorate

66,979

Turnout

70.51%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

23,890

50.58%

54.12%

91.7%

LIB

10,598

22.44%

11.81%

0.3%

LAB

9,770

20.69%

28.95%

8.0%

OTH

2,971

6.29%

5.13%

0.0%

CON Majority

13,292

28.14%

Pred Maj

25.16%

Stourbridge
County/Area: West Midlands (West Midlands)
MP Margot James (CON)

Electorate

69,637

Turnout

67.83%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

20,153

42.67%

45.78%

64.0%

LAB

14,989

31.73%

39.03%

35.9%

LIB

7,733

16.37%

7.67%

0.0%

OTH

4,359

9.23%

7.52%

0.1%

CON Majority

5,164

10.93%

Pred Maj

6.75%

Stratford-on-Avon
County/Area: Warwickshire (East Midlands)
MP Nadhim Zahawi (CON)

Electorate

69,516

Turnout

72.71%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

26,052

51.55%

55.01%

97.2%

LIB

14,706

29.10%

18.75%

0.3%

LAB

4,809

9.51%

17.63%

2.5%

OTH

3,129

6.19%

4.95%

0.0%

MIN

1,846

3.65%

0.0%

CON Majority

11,346

22.45%

Pred Maj

36.26%

Streatham
County/Area: Lambeth (South London)
MP Chuka Umunna (LAB)

Electorate

74,531

Turnout

62.84%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

20,037

42.78%

51.11%

91.9%

LIB

16,778

35.82%

24.68%

3.3%

CON

8,578

18.31%

21.87%

4.7%

OTH

1,444

3.08%

2.33%

0.1%

LAB Majority

3,259

6.96%

Pred Maj

26.43%

Stretford and Urmston
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP Kate Green (LAB)

Electorate

70,091

Turnout

64.07%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

21,821

48.59%

55.71%

94.1%

CON

12,886

28.69%

31.74%

5.9%

LIB

7,601

16.92%

7.89%

0.0%

OTH

2,602

5.79%

4.66%

0.0%

LAB Majority

8,935

19.90%

Pred Maj

23.97%

Stroud
County/Area: Gloucestershire (West)
MP Neil Carmichael (CON)

Electorate

78,305

Turnout

74.03%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

23,679

40.84%

43.41%

45.3%

LAB

22,380

38.60%

44.60%

54.6%

LIB

8,955

15.45%

8.10%

0.0%

OTH

2,959

5.10%

3.89%

0.1%

CON Majority

1,299

2.24%

Pred Maj

1.20%

LAB Gain

Suffolk Central and Ipswich North
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP Daniel Poulter (CON)

Electorate

75,848

Turnout

70.43%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

27,125

50.78%

54.29%

95.0%

LIB

13,339

24.97%

14.74%

0.3%

LAB

8,636

16.17%

24.38%

4.7%

OTH

4,320

8.09%

6.59%

0.0%

CON Majority

13,786

25.81%

Pred Maj

29.90%

Suffolk Coastal
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP Therese Coffey (CON)

Electorate

76,687

Turnout

71.58%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

25,475

46.41%

49.90%

91.1%

LIB

16,347

29.78%

19.55%

1.2%

LAB

8,812

16.05%

24.23%

7.6%

OTH

4,259

7.76%

6.32%

0.1%

CON Majority

9,128

16.63%

Pred Maj

25.67%

Suffolk South
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP Tim Yeo (CON)

Electorate

72,498

Turnout

70.92%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

24,550

47.75%

51.20%

93.5%

LIB

15,861

30.85%

20.61%

1.1%

LAB

7,368

14.33%

22.42%

5.3%

OTH

3,637

7.07%

5.77%

0.1%

CON Majority

8,689

16.90%

Pred Maj

28.79%

Suffolk West
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP Matthew Hancock (CON)

Electorate

74,413

Turnout

64.62%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

24,312

50.56%

54.24%

94.6%

LIB

11,262

23.42%

13.18%

0.3%

LAB

7,089

14.74%

23.37%

5.0%

OTH

5,426

11.28%

9.20%

0.1%

CON Majority

13,050

27.14%

Pred Maj

30.87%

Sunderland Central
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP Julie Elliott (LAB)

Electorate

74,485

Turnout

57.01%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LAB

19,495

45.91%

52.98%

89.1%

CON

12,770

30.07%

33.09%

10.9%

LIB

7,191

16.93%

8.04%

0.0%

OTH

3,007

7.08%

5.89%

0.0%

LAB Majority

6,725

15.84%

Pred Maj

19.89%

Surrey East
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP Sam Gyimah (CON)

Electorate

76,855

Turnout

71.09%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

31,007

56.75%

60.21%

98.7%

LIB

14,133

25.87%

16.10%

0.2%

LAB

4,925

9.01%

17.12%

1.1%

OTH

4,575

8.37%

6.57%

0.0%

CON Majority

16,874

30.88%

Pred Maj

43.09%

Surrey Heath
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP Michael Gove (CON)

Electorate

77,690

Turnout

69.95%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

31,326

57.64%

60.97%

99.1%

LIB

14,037

25.83%

16.06%

0.1%

LAB

5,552

10.22%

18.01%

0.8%

OTH

3,432

6.31%

4.95%

0.0%

CON Majority

17,289

31.81%

Pred Maj

42.96%

Surrey South West
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP Jeremy Hunt (CON)

Electorate

77,980

Turnout

73.43%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

33,605

58.69%

61.95%

99.4%

LIB

17,287

30.19%

20.42%

0.3%

LAB

3,419

5.97%

13.59%

0.3%

OTH

2,948

5.15%

4.04%

0.0%

CON Majority

16,318

28.50%

Pred Maj

41.53%

Sussex Mid
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
MP Nicholas Soames (CON)

Electorate

77,182

Turnout

72.37%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

28,329

50.72%

53.98%

95.9%

LIB

20,927

37.47%

27.70%

2.7%

LAB

3,689

6.60%

14.24%

1.4%

OTH

2,910

5.21%

4.09%

0.0%

CON Majority

7,402

13.25%

Pred Maj

26.28%

Sutton and Cheam
County/Area: Sutton (South London)
MP Paul Burstow (LIB)

Electorate

66,658

Turnout

72.77%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

LIB

22,156

45.67%

34.54%

21.6%

CON

20,548

42.36%

46.06%

74.3%

LAB

3,376

6.96%

15.62%

3.9%

OTH

2,428

5.01%

3.79%

0.2%

LIB Majority

1,608

3.31%

Pred Maj

11.52%

CON Gain

Sutton Coldfield
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP Andrew Mitchell (CON)

Electorate

74,489

Turnout

67.91%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

27,303

53.97%

57.26%

94.9%

LAB

10,298

20.36%

28.06%

5.0%

LIB

9,117

18.02%

8.44%

0.1%

OTH

3,871

7.65%

6.24%

0.0%

CON Majority

17,005

33.61%

Pred Maj

29.20%

Swindon North
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP Justin Tomlinson (CON)

Electorate

78,391

Turnout

64.16%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

22,408

44.55%

47.56%

72.9%

LAB

15,348

30.52%

37.55%

27.0%

LIB

8,668

17.23%

9.04%

0.0%

OTH

3,871

7.70%

5.86%

0.1%

CON Majority

7,060

14.04%

Pred Maj

10.01%

Swindon South
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP Robert Buckland (CON)

Electorate

72,622

Turnout

64.88%

Top

2010 Votes

2010 Share

Predicted Votes

Chance of winning

CON

19,687

41.78%

44.74%

56.8%

LAB

16,143

34.26%

41.19%

43.1%

LIB

8,305

17.63%

9.24%

0.0%

OTH

2,984

6.33%

4.82%

0.1%

CON Majority

3,544

7.52%

Pred Maj

3.55%