Antrim North: Seat Details

Antrim North: Overview

Prediction: MIN hold

MP at 2024:Jim Allister  (MIN)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:74,697
Turnout:55.1%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
MIN11,64228.3%28.3%
DUP11,19227.2%27.2%
SF7,71418.7%18.7%
Alliance4,48810.9%10.9%
UUP3,9019.5%9.4%
SDLP1,6614.0%4.0%
OTH5871.4%1.5%
MIN Majority4501.1%1.1%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
MIN
32%
DUP
47%
SF
15%
Alliance
4%
UUP
2%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%

Antrim North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Antrim North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2024MINSFLAB
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %62%44%52%
British Identity44%32%52%
Average Age50.649.349.5
Good Education43%48%49%
Employed56%56%58%
Homeowner70%69%63%
Car owner89%87%77%
Married49%46%45%
Ethnic White98%97%83%
Christian83%81%50%
ABC1 Class45%51%55%
Average House Price£142,483£148,402£308,942

Antrim North ranks #116 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Antrim North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Antrim North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Antrim North.

Antrim NorthActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,527SFSF
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,197DUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,635MINMIN
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,377DUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,811MINMIN
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,572DUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,705SFSF
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,593DUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,851MINMIN
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,768SFSF
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,782MINMIN
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,513DUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin2,790SFSF
Mid and East AntrimAcademy2,174DUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,768DUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,565DUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,376DUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,213DUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,181SFSF
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,927DUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne1,929MINMIN
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,145DUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,072SFSF
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,566DUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,859MINMIN
Mid and East AntrimKells2,574DUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,334DUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,376DUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimPark2,104MINMIN
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,413MINMIN
 Total74,697MINMIN

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (29-Jul-2024 10:12, Py3L, sc3945)