Lagan Valley: Seat Details

Lagan Valley: Overview

Prediction: Alliance hold

MP at 2024:Sorcha-Lucy Eastwood  (Alliance)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:82,201
Turnout:59.7%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
Alliance18,61837.9%37.9%
DUP15,65931.9%31.9%
UUP11,15722.7%22.7%
OTH2,1864.5%4.5%
SDLP1,0282.1%2.1%
Green4330.9%0.9%
Alliance Majority2,9596.0%6.0%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
Alliance
62%
DUP
32%
UUP
6%
OTH
0%
SDLP
0%
Green
0%

Lagan Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Lagan Valley constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2024AllianceSFLAB
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %54%44%52%
British Identity43%32%52%
Average Age49.749.349.5
Good Education53%48%49%
Employed60%56%58%
Homeowner76%69%63%
Car owner92%87%77%
Married52%46%45%
Ethnic White97%97%83%
Christian76%81%50%
ABC1 Class60%51%55%
Average House Price£175,987£148,402£308,942

Lagan Valley ranks #332 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Lagan Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Lagan Valley

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Lagan Valley.

Lagan ValleyActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,999AllianceAlliance
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney99DUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,583AllianceAlliance
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,527DUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin3,919DUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly3,413AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry3,055AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,541AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,528AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,686DUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,576AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,661AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,470AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,661AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,911AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,882AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,903DUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,695DUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,200AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,676AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,451AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry3,209DUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,968AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,488AllianceDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,863AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,649DUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,577AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,823AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain4,189DUPDUP
 Total82,202AllianceAlliance

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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