Ulster Mid: Seat Details

Ulster Mid: Overview

Prediction: SF hold

MP at 2024:Cathal Mallaghan  (SF)
County/Area:Tyrone (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:74,000
Turnout:61.4%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
SF24,08553.0%52.9%
DUP9,16220.2%20.2%
OTH4,2069.3%9.4%
SDLP3,7228.2%8.1%
UUP2,2695.0%5.0%
Alliance2,0014.4%4.4%
SF Majority14,92332.8%32.7%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
SF
99%
DUP
1%
OTH
0%
SDLP
0%
UUP
0%
Alliance
0%

Ulster Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ulster Mid constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2024SFSFLAB
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
EU Leave %41%44%52%
British Identity22%32%52%
Average Age48.449.349.5
Good Education46%48%49%
Employed60%56%58%
Homeowner75%69%63%
Car owner93%87%77%
Married51%46%45%
Ethnic White98%97%83%
Christian92%81%50%
ABC1 Class45%51%55%
Average House Price£142,581£148,402£308,942

Ulster Mid ranks #548 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Ulster Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ulster Mid

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ulster Mid.

Ulster MidActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall442DUPSF
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches431DUPDUP
Mid UlsterArdboe2,828SFSF
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,907SFSF
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,866SFSF
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield855SFSF
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,695SFSF
Mid UlsterCoagh2,468SFSF
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,578SFSF
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,765SFSF
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,084SFSF
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,207SFSF
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,469SFSF
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,847SFSF
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,758SFSF
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,246SFSF
Mid UlsterGlebe2,615SFSF
Mid UlsterKillyman2,420SFSF
Mid UlsterLissan2,657DUPDUP
Mid UlsterLoughry2,124DUPDUP
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane2,512SFSF
Mid UlsterMaghera2,429SFSF
Mid UlsterOaklands2,521SFSF
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,372DUPDUP
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,614SFSF
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,755SFSF
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,933SFSF
Mid UlsterTobermore2,682SFSF
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,469SFSF
Mid UlsterValley2,657SFSF
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,790SFSF
 Total73,996SFSF

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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