Scottish Opinion Polls

Recent Scottish opinion polls

Scottish Opinion Polls From 2010

Scottish opinion polls (Westminster voting intention) since the May 2010 general election are listed here

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%UKIP%Green%SNP%
ELECTION 20106 May 201016.742.018.90.70.719.9
Ipsos-MORI16 Aug 2010 - 19 Aug 20101,013144013  29
The Scotsman/YouGov18 Oct 2010 - 20 Oct 20101,40518447  26
Ipsos-MORI18 Nov 2010 - 21 Nov 20101,001144110  29
The Scotsman/YouGov25 Mar 2011 - 28 Mar 20111,02517466  26
Scotland on Sunday/YouGov13 Apr 2011 - 15 Apr 20111,13516439  28
The Scotsman/YouGov19 Apr 2011 - 21 Apr 20111,33215437  30
The Scotsman/YouGov26 Apr 2011 - 29 Apr 20111,10817427  28
YouGov02 May 2011 - 04 May 20111,48417447  28
YouGov25 Aug 2011 - 29 Aug 20111,00215336  42
Channel 4 News/YouGov12 Jan 2012 - 15 Jan 20121,02616357  37
The Scotsman/YouGov22 Feb 2012 - 24 Feb 20121,05317427  30
YouGov aggregation01 Mar 2012 - 31 Mar 20121,932183972 33
YouGov aggregation02 Apr 2012 - 30 Apr 20121,658153673 35
YouGov18 May 2012 - 21 May 20121,004144052 35
YouGov aggregation31 May 2012 - 29 Jun 20121,791193973 31
YouGov aggregation01 Jul 2012 - 30 Jul 20121,957174062 32
YouGov aggregation01 Aug 2012 - 31 Aug 20121,791174373 27
YouGov aggregation03 Sep 2012 - 28 Sep 20121,600184163 30
YouGov aggregation30 Sep 2012 - 31 Oct 20121,986194273 27
YouGov aggregation01 Nov 2012 - 29 Nov 20121,839214272 26
YouGov aggregation30 Nov 2012 - 21 Dec 20121,487204574 21
YouGov aggregation01 Jan 2013 - 31 Jan 20132,1151944102 23
YouGov aggregation31 Jan 2013 - 27 Feb 20131,6411943103 22
YouGov aggregation04 Mar 2013 - 28 Mar 20131,4841941115 21
YouGov aggregation01 Apr 2013 - 29 Apr 20131,937174294 25
YouGov aggregation30 Apr 2013 - 30 May 20131,948194295 23
YouGov aggregation03 Jun 2013 - 28 Jun 20131,891184084 27
YouGov aggregation30 Jun 2013 - 31 Jul 20132,189204184 24
YouGov aggregation01 Aug 2013 - 31 Aug 20132,098194075 26
YouGov aggregation01 Sep 2013 - 27 Sep 20131,899203974 27
YouGov aggregation01 Oct 2013 - 30 Oct 20132,126214274 23
YouGov aggregation31 Oct 2013 - 29 Nov 20132,0591938103 26
YouGov aggregation01 Dec 2013 - 20 Dec 20131,434203795 25
YouGov aggregation05 Jan 2014 - 31 Jan 20141,890213874 25
YouGov aggregation02 Feb 2014 - 28 Feb 20141,916193883 27
YouGov aggregation02 Mar 2014 - 28 Mar 20142,159204072 27
FT/Populus sub-sample05 Mar 2014 - 30 Mar 20141,167183473 34
YouGov aggregation01 Apr 2014 - 30 Apr 20141,868193684 29
FT/Populus sub-sample02 Apr 2014 - 01 May 20141,589193274 34
YouGov aggregation01 May 2014 - 29 May 20142,197193665 28
YouGov aggregation01 Jun 2014 - 27 Jun 20142,025193775 27
YouGov aggregation01 Jul 2014 - 30 Jul 20142,148223674 26
YouGov aggregation31 Jul 2014 - 29 Aug 20142,017183674 28
YouGov aggregation31 Aug 2014 - 24 Sep 20141,841203164 33
YouGov aggregation31 Aug 2014 - 29 Sep 20142,163193164 34
STV/Ipsos-MORI22 Oct 2014 - 29 Oct 20141,026102362652
The Times/YouGov27 Oct 2014 - 30 Oct 20141,078152746443
YouGov aggregation30 Sep 2014 - 31 Oct 20142,358182864340
YouGov aggregation02 Nov 2014 - 28 Nov 20141,960172754442
The Sun/YouGov09 Dec 2014 - 11 Dec 20141,081162733347
Daily Record/Survation15 Dec 2014 - 18 Dec 20141,001162454148
The Guardian/ICM16 Dec 2014 - 18 Dec 20141,004132667443
YouGov aggregation30 Nov 2014 - 22 Dec 20141,611172565343
Sunday Times/Panelbase9 Jan 12015 - 14 Jan 20151,007143137241
Daily Record/Survation12 Jan 2015 - 16 Jan 20151,006142674346
STV/Ipsos-MORI12 Jan 2015 - 19 Jan 2015774122441452
YouGov aggregation04 Jan 2015 - 29 Jan 20152,925172755342
TNS BMRB14 Jan 2015 - 02 Feb 20151,006163142641
The Times/YouGov29 Jan 2015 - 02 Feb 20151,001152744348
Daily Record/Survation12 Feb 2015 - 17 Feb 20151,011152853345
TNS BMRB30 Jan 2015 - 22 Feb 20151,001143033446
YouGov aggregation01 Feb 2015 - 25 Feb 20151,585192654441
Unison Scotland/Survation06 Mar 2015 - 10 Mar 20151,005152843247
The Times/YouGov10 Mar 2015 - 12 Mar 20151,049182742346
Daily Record/Survation12 Mar 2015 - 17 Mar 20151,027162644247
The Guardian/ICM13 Mar 2015 - 19 Mar 20151,002142767343
YouGov aggregation01 Mar 2015 - 25 Mar 20151,610182754342
AVERAGE16 Aug 2010 - 25 Mar 2015103,55817.835.9 6.8 3.3 0.932.3

As further Scottish polls are published, they will be shown here.

Predicted Election Result

On this data the number of seats won in Scotland would be

CON 0 (-1), LAB 11 (-30), LIB 0 (-11), UKIP 0 (+0), Green 0 (+0), NAT 48 (+42).

You can see more details of predicted Scottish seats for East Scotland and West Scotland, plus full constituency details for all Scotland.

Aggregated polls

There has been a dearth of Scotland-only polls of Westminster voting intention since spring 2012. To make an estimate of Scottish voting intention, the opinion poll data above now includes "aggregated polls". These are based on the daily YouGov polling for the Sun and the Sunday Times. These polls are nationwide, but they contain a separately-reported Scottish component. The Scottish sample size of each individual poll is small (around 150 voters), which is not usable in isolation. However, if we add up all the Scottish components over a full month, the total sample size is around 1,500 voters which is a usable total. Because the YouGov methodology is constant, the individual Scottish samples should be consistent and able to be aggregated.

This methodology has been tested against three YouGov Scotland-only polls in Jan 2012, Feb 2012 and May 2012. The maximum error was around 3%-4%, which is about the amount expected by random variation. But there was a small bias towards the Conservatives at the expense of the other three big Scottish parties fairly equally. So the aggregated polls may not be as accurate as pure Scotland-only polls, but they seem a reasonable second-best indicator in the absence of proper polling.


© Martin Baxter