Scottish Opinion Polls

Recent Scottish opinion polls

Scottish Opinion Polls From 2010

Scottish opinion polls (Westminster voting intention) since the May 2010 general election are listed here

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%UKIP%Green%SNP%
ELECTION 20106 May 201016.742.018.90.70.719.9
Ipsos-MORI16 Aug 10 - 19 Aug 101,013144013  29
The Scotsman/YouGov18 Oct 10 - 20 Oct 101,40518447  26
Ipsos-MORI18 Nov 10 - 21 Nov 101,001144110  29
The Scotsman/YouGov25 Mar 11 - 28 Mar 111,02517466  26
Scotland on Sunday/YouGov13 Apr 11 - 15 Apr 111,13516439  28
The Scotsman/YouGov19 Apr 11 - 21 Apr 111,33215437  30
The Scotsman/YouGov26 Apr 11 - 29 Apr 111,10817427  28
YouGov02 May 11 - 04 May 111,48417447  28
YouGov25 Aug 11 - 29 Aug 111,00215336  42
Channel 4 News/YouGov12 Jan 12 - 15 Jan 121,02616357  37
The Scotsman/YouGov22 Feb 12 - 24 Feb 121,05317427  30
YouGov aggregation01 Mar 12 - 31 Mar 121,932183972 33
YouGov aggregation02 Apr 12 - 30 Apr 121,658153673 35
YouGov18 May 12 - 21 May 121,004144052 35
YouGov aggregation31 May 12 - 29 Jun 121,791193973 31
YouGov aggregation01 Jul 12 - 30 Jul 121,957174062 32
YouGov aggregation01 Aug 12 - 31 Aug 121,791174373 27
YouGov aggregation03 Sep 12 - 28 Sep 121,600184163 30
YouGov aggregation30 Sep 12 - 31 Oct 121,986194273 27
YouGov aggregation01 Nov 12 - 29 Nov 121,839214272 26
YouGov aggregation30 Nov 12 - 21 Dec 121,487204574 21
YouGov aggregation01 Jan 13 - 31 Jan 132,1151944102 23
YouGov aggregation31 Jan 13 - 27 Feb 131,6411943103 22
YouGov aggregation04 Mar 13 - 28 Mar 131,4841941115 21
YouGov aggregation01 Apr 13 - 29 Apr 131,937174294 25
YouGov aggregation30 Apr 13 - 30 May 131,948194295 23
YouGov aggregation03 Jun 13 - 28 Jun 131,891184084 27
YouGov aggregation30 Jun 13 - 31 Jul 132,189204184 24
YouGov aggregation01 Aug 13 - 31 Aug 132,098194075 26
YouGov aggregation01 Sep 13 - 27 Sep 131,899203974 27
YouGov aggregation01 Oct 13 - 30 Oct 132,126214274 23
YouGov aggregation31 Oct 13 - 29 Nov 132,0591938103 26
YouGov aggregation01 Dec 13 - 20 Dec 131,434203795 25
YouGov aggregation05 Jan 14 - 31 Jan 141,890213874 25
YouGov aggregation02 Feb 14 - 28 Feb 141,916193883 27
YouGov aggregation02 Mar 14 - 28 Mar 142,159204072 27
FT/Populus sub-sample05 Mar 14 - 30 Mar 141,167183473 34
YouGov aggregation01 Apr 14 - 30 Apr 141,868193684 29
FT/Populus sub-sample02 Apr 14 - 01 May 141,589193274 34
YouGov aggregation01 May 14 - 29 May 142,197193665 28
YouGov aggregation01 Jun 14 - 27 Jun 142,025193775 27
YouGov aggregation01 Jul 14 - 30 Jul 142,148223674 26
YouGov aggregation31 Jul 14 - 29 Aug 142,017183674 28
YouGov aggregation31 Aug 14 - 24 Sep 141,841203164 33
YouGov aggregation31 Aug 14 - 29 Sep 142,163193164 34
STV/Ipsos-MORI22 Oct 14 - 29 Oct 141,026102362652
The Times/YouGov27 Oct 14 - 30 Oct 141,078152746443
YouGov aggregation30 Sep 14 - 31 Oct 142,358182864340
YouGov aggregation02 Nov 14 - 28 Nov 141,960172754442
The Sun/YouGov09 Dec 14 - 11 Dec 141,081162733347
Daily Record/Survation15 Dec 14 - 18 Dec 141,001162454148
The Guardian/ICM16 Dec 14 - 18 Dec 141,004132667443
YouGov aggregation30 Nov 14 - 22 Dec 141,611172565343
Sunday Times/Panelbase9 Jan 15 - 14 Jan 151,007143137241
Daily Record/Survation12 Jan 15 - 16 Jan 151,006142674346
STV/Ipsos-MORI12 Jan 15 - 19 Jan 15774122441452
YouGov aggregation04 Jan 15 - 29 Jan 152,925172755342
TNS BMRB14 Jan 15 - 02 Feb 151,006163142641
The Times/YouGov29 Jan 15 - 02 Feb 151,001152744348
Daily Record/Survation12 Feb 15 - 17 Feb 151,011152853345
TNS BMRB30 Jan 15 - 22 Feb 151,001143033446
YouGov aggregation01 Feb 15 - 25 Feb 151,585192654441
AVERAGE16 Aug 10 - 25 Feb 1597,86517.936.5 6.9 3.2 0.831.6

As further Scottish polls are published, they will be shown here.

Predicted Election Result

On this data the number of seats won in Scotland would be

CON 0 (-1), LAB 13 (-28), LIB 0 (-11), UKIP 0 (+0), Green 0 (+0), NAT 46 (+40).

You can see more details of predicted Scottish seats for East Scotland and West Scotland, plus full constituency details for all Scotland.

Aggregated polls

There has been a dearth of Scotland-only polls of Westminster voting intention since spring 2012. To make an estimate of Scottish voting intention, the opinion poll data above now includes "aggregated polls". These are based on the daily YouGov polling for the Sun and the Sunday Times. These polls are nationwide, but they contain a separately-reported Scottish component. The Scottish sample size of each individual poll is small (around 150 voters), which is not usable in isolation. However, if we add up all the Scottish components over a full month, the total sample size is around 1,500 voters which is a usable total. Because the YouGov methodology is constant, the individual Scottish samples should be consistent and able to be aggregated.

This methodology has been tested against three YouGov Scotland-only polls in Jan 2012, Feb 2012 and May 2012. The maximum error was around 3%-4%, which is about the amount expected by random variation. But there was a small bias towards the Conservatives at the expense of the other three big Scottish parties fairly equally. So the aggregated polls may not be as accurate as pure Scotland-only polls, but they seem a reasonable second-best indicator in the absence of proper polling.


© Martin Baxter