Scottish Opinion Polls

Recent Scottish opinion polls

Scottish Opinion Polls From 2010

Scottish opinion polls (Westminster voting intention) since the May 2010 general election are listed here

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%UKIP%SNP%
ELECTION 20106 May 201016.742.018.90.719.9
Ipsos-MORI16 Aug 10 - 19 Aug 101,013144013 29
The Scotsman/YouGov18 Oct 10 - 20 Oct 101,40518447 26
Ipsos-MORI18 Nov 10 - 21 Nov 101,001144110 29
The Scotsman/YouGov25 Mar 11 - 28 Mar 111,02517466 26
Scotland on Sunday/YouGov13 Apr 11 - 15 Apr 111,13516439 28
The Scotsman/YouGov19 Apr 11 - 21 Apr 111,33215437 30
The Scotsman/YouGov26 Apr 11 - 29 Apr 111,10817427 28
YouGov02 May 11 - 04 May 111,48417447 28
YouGov25 Aug 11 - 29 Aug 111,00215336 42
Channel 4 News/YouGov12 Jan 12 - 15 Jan 121,02616357 37
The Scotsman/YouGov22 Feb 12 - 24 Feb 121,05317427 30
YouGov aggregation01 Mar 12 - 31 Mar 121,93218397233
YouGov aggregation02 Apr 12 - 30 Apr 121,65815367335
YouGov18 May 12 - 21 May 121,00414405235
YouGov aggregation31 May 12 - 29 Jun 121,79119397331
YouGov aggregation01 Jul 12 - 30 Jul 121,95717406232
YouGov aggregation01 Aug 12 - 31 Aug 121,79117437327
YouGov aggregation03 Sep 12 - 28 Sep 121,60018416330
YouGov aggregation30 Sep 12 - 31 Oct 121,98619427327
YouGov aggregation01 Nov 12 - 29 Nov 121,83921427226
YouGov aggregation30 Nov 12 - 21 Dec 121,48720457421
YouGov aggregation01 Jan 13 - 31 Jan 132,115194410223
YouGov aggregation31 Jan 13 - 27 Feb 131,641194310322
YouGov aggregation04 Mar 13 - 28 Mar 131,484194111521
YouGov aggregation01 Apr 13 - 29 Apr 131,93717429425
YouGov aggregation30 Apr 13 - 30 May 131,94819429523
YouGov aggregation03 Jun 13 - 28 Jun 131,89118408427
YouGov aggregation30 Jun 13 - 31 Jul 132,18920418424
YouGov aggregation01 Aug 13 - 31 Aug 132,09819407526
YouGov aggregation01 Sep 13 - 27 Sep 131,89920397427
YouGov aggregation01 Oct 13 - 30 Oct 132,12621427423
YouGov aggregation31 Oct 13 - 29 Nov 132,059193810326
YouGov aggregation01 Dec 13 - 20 Dec 131,43420379525
YouGov aggregation05 Jan 14 - 31 Jan 141,89021387425
YouGov aggregation02 Feb 14 - 28 Feb 141,91619388327
YouGov aggregation02 Mar 14 - 28 Mar 142,15920407227
FT/Populus sub-sample05 Mar 14 - 30 Mar 141,16718347334
YouGov aggregation01 Apr 14 - 30 Apr 141,86819368429
FT/Populus sub-sample02 Apr 14 - 01 May 141,58919327434
YouGov aggregation01 May 14 - 29 May 142,19719366528
YouGov aggregation01 Jun 14 - 27 Jun 142,02519377527
YouGov aggregation01 Jul 14 - 30 Jul 142,14822367426
YouGov aggregation31 Jul 14 - 29 Aug 142,01718367428
YouGov aggregation31 Aug 14 - 24 Sep 141,84120316433
YouGov aggregation31 Aug 14 - 29 Sep 142,16319316434
STV/Ipsos-MORI22 Oct 14 - 29 Oct 141,02610236252
The Times/YouGov27 Oct 14 - 30 Oct 141,07815274643
YouGov aggregation30 Sep 14 - 31 Oct 142,35818286440
YouGov aggregation02 Nov 14 - 26 Nov 141,78417275442
AVERAGE16 Aug 10 - 26 Nov 1481,67618.338.3 7.4 3.129.1

As further Scottish polls are published, they will be shown here.

Predicted Election Result

On this data the number of seats won in Scotland would be

CON 3 (+2), LAB 13 (-28), LIB 1 (-10), UKIP 0 (+0), NAT 42 (+36).

You can see more details of predicted Scottish seats for East Scotland and West Scotland, plus full constituency details for all Scotland.

Aggregated polls

There has been a dearth of Scotland-only polls of Westminster voting intention since spring 2012. To make an estimate of Scottish voting intention, the opinion poll data above now includes "aggregated polls". These are based on the daily YouGov polling for the Sun and the Sunday Times. These polls are nationwide, but they contain a separately-reported Scottish component. The Scottish sample size of each individual poll is small (around 150 voters), which is not usable in isolation. However, if we add up all the Scottish components over a full month, the total sample size is around 1,500 voters which is a usable total. Because the YouGov methodology is constant, the individual Scottish samples should be consistent and able to be aggregated.

This methodology has been tested against three YouGov Scotland-only polls in Jan 2012, Feb 2012 and May 2012. The maximum error was around 3%-4%, which is about the amount expected by random variation. But there was a small bias towards the Conservatives at the expense of the other three big Scottish parties fairly equally. So the aggregated polls may not be as accurate as pure Scotland-only polls, but they seem a reasonable second-best indicator in the absence of proper polling.


© Martin Baxter