Severn: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Severn sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Halton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Ludlow, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stafford (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Telford (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Severn seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
47	554	Halton	Derek Twigg	68,884	60.0	22.84	63.91	6.48	0.00	0.00	6.78	LAB	LAB
142	459	Stoke-on-Trent North	Joan Walley	72,052	55.8	27.44	52.75	8.30	0.00	0.00	11.52	LAB	LAB
150	451	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Tristram Hunt	60,995	53.2	25.25	48.66	11.05	0.00	0.00	15.04	LAB	LAB
167	434	Warrington North	Helen Jones	71,601	61.7	33.60	53.44	10.17	0.00	0.00	2.79	LAB	LAB
204	397	Stoke-on-Trent South	Robert Flello	68,031	58.6	31.34	45.65	7.43	0.00	9.44	6.14	LAB	LAB
210	391	Ellesmere Port and Neston	Andrew Miller	63,097	70.1	37.56	50.96	7.05	0.00	0.00	4.42	LAB	LAB
251	350	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Paul Farrelly	69,433	62.2	37.93	46.30	9.18	0.00	0.00	6.59	LAB	LAB
262	339	Telford	David Wright	65,061	63.5	39.30	45.68	7.25	0.00	0.00	7.77	LAB	LAB
281	320	Weaver Vale	Graham Evans	66,538	66.1	41.87	44.07	8.73	0.00	0.00	5.33	CON	LAB
287	314	Warrington South	David Mowat	80,506	68.2	39.18	40.90	16.87	0.00	0.00	3.05	CON	LAB
306	295	Chester, City of	Stephen Mosley	68,874	67.9	43.92	42.87	8.94	0.00	0.00	4.27	CON	CON
308	293	Worcester	Robin Walker	72,831	67.2	43.04	41.67	9.11	0.00	0.00	6.18	CON	CON
316	285	Cannock Chase	Aidan Burley	74,509	61.1	43.09	40.07	7.95	0.00	4.76	4.14	CON	CON
338	263	Stafford	Jeremy Lefroy	70,587	71.2	46.86	39.98	7.65	0.00	0.00	5.51	CON	CON
348	253	Crewe and Nantwich	Edward Timpson	77,460	65.9	48.52	40.26	7.02	0.00	0.00	4.20	CON	CON
352	249	Burton	Andrew Griffiths	74,874	66.5	47.48	38.79	7.42	0.00	0.00	6.31	CON	CON
353	248	Redditch	Karen Lumley	68,550	64.2	46.76	37.94	8.25	0.00	0.00	7.06	CON	CON
355	246	Tamworth	Christopher Pincher	72,693	63.8	48.66	39.38	7.59	0.00	0.00	4.37	CON	CON
364	237	Staffordshire Moorlands	Karen Bradley	62,071	70.6	48.29	37.21	7.84	0.00	0.00	6.66	CON	CON
376	225	Wrekin, The	Mark Pritchard	65,544	70.1	50.89	34.63	8.17	0.00	0.00	6.30	CON	CON
379	222	Bromsgrove	Sajid Javid	73,086	70.6	47.64	31.03	9.18	0.00	0.00	12.15	CON	CON
386	215	Shrewsbury and Atcham	Daniel Kawczynski	75,438	70.3	47.49	28.87	18.34	0.00	0.00	5.30	CON	CON
394	207	Wyre Forest	Mark Garnier	76,711	66.4	39.10	19.43	5.56	0.00	31.73	4.19	CON	CON
402	199	Macclesfield	David Rutley	73,417	68.2	50.67	29.01	12.43	0.00	0.00	7.89	CON	CON
414	187	Congleton	Fiona Bruce	73,692	68.9	49.25	25.34	21.24	0.00	0.00	4.17	CON	CON
421	180	Stone	William Cash	66,979	70.5	54.12	28.95	11.81	0.00	0.00	5.13	CON	CON
424	177	Eddisbury	Stephen O'Brien	65,306	69.5	55.10	29.57	11.86	0.00	0.00	3.46	CON	CON
456	145	Shropshire North	Owen Paterson	78,926	65.7	55.17	26.81	10.31	0.00	0.00	7.71	CON	CON
458	143	Staffordshire South	Gavin Williamson	73,390	68.7	56.40	27.80	7.82	0.00	0.00	7.97	CON	CON
472	129	Lichfield	Michael Fabricant	72,586	71.0	57.89	28.02	9.47	0.00	0.00	4.61	CON	CON
499	102	Tatton	George Osborne	65,689	68.9	58.07	25.43	11.92	0.00	0.00	4.58	CON	CON
516	85	Hereford and South Herefordshire	Jesse Norman	71,435	67.7	49.71	15.40	30.47	0.00	0.00	4.42	CON	CON
520	81	Worcestershire Mid	Peter Luff	72,171	70.6	58.10	23.33	12.74	0.00	0.00	5.83	CON	CON
554	47	Worcestershire West	Harriett Baldwin	73,270	73.8	53.77	14.88	27.19	0.00	0.00	4.16	CON	CON
563	38	Herefordshire North	Bill Wiggin	66,525	71.5	55.21	15.12	20.36	0.00	5.68	3.63	CON	CON
576	25	Ludlow	Philip Dunne	66,631	73.1	56.15	14.60	22.14	0.00	4.36	2.75	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.