The Constitution Society commissioned Electoral Calculus and pollster Find Out Now for a MRP regression poll on how people would vote if there were an electoral pact between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green party.
Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run an MRP poll on voting intention for Westminster in the presence of an electoral pact on behalf of the Constitution Society. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 14,000 respondents, carried out from 4 to 6 June.
The Constitution Society has published a document by Andrew Blick, Head of Political Economy at KCL, on the possible electoral pact and this poll. It is available from them at this link.
The poll asked England and Wales residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election and there was an electoral pact between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green party.
The question assumed that there was an electoral pact between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green party throughout England and Wales. It was also assumed that the pact did not apply in Scotland, and that Plaid Cymru were not included.
It was also assumed that the 573 seats in England and Wales were allocated between the pact parties, so that only one of the pact parties would stand a candidate in each seat. The method of seat selection was as follows:
See Appendix 2 for the full list of seat selections.
The headline table of predicted seats is:| Party | Current | Predicted with pact | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 365 | 307 | −58 |
| LAB | 203 | 239 | +36 |
| SNP | 48 | 48 | 0 |
| LIB | 11 | 25 | +14 |
| Green | 1 | 9 | +8 |
| Plaid | 4 | 4 | 0 |
These results show that an electoral pact between Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Greens could make a significant difference.
Current opinion polls show the Conservatives on course for another large majority if there were an imminent general election, and opposition parties remain divided. The latest Electoral Calculus monthly poll of polls suggests a Conservative majority of 60 seats.
But if there were an electoral pact between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens in England and Wales, then the Conservatives could lose over 50 seats compared with their general election performance and would be 19 seats short of a majority. The pact parties, plus Scottish and Welsh nationalists, could have enough seats to form a government.
Within the pact, all three parties benefit from it. Labour gains an additional 36 seats, the Liberal Democrats more than double their current total to 25 seats, and the Greens get 9 seats compared to their existing single seat. This could be perceived as win-win-win for these three parties.
The poll did not include Scotland and the calculations assumed no change to the 2019 election result there. In Wales, the poll suggests that Plaid would still hold the four seats it won in 2019, despite the existence of the pact.
The current political environment also reflects the current high levels of public satisfaction with the government's vaccination strategy. As time passes, this may become a less salient factor, and the political situation may evolve in the opposition's favour. At which point, the benefit of an electoral pact could make the difference between a hung parliament and a working majority for the pact parties.
If the existence of the pact made Conservative voters less likely to vote, then the effects could be even greater.
Respondents were asked two questions. The first was a general question of likelihood to vote.
Q1. We know that many people in your area didn't vote in the last general election. How likely do you think you are to vote in the next general election on a scale from 0 to 10? (10 - certain to vote, 0 - certain not to vote)
The second question depends on the constituency that the respondent lives in. In general terms, the question has the format:
Q2. Suppose at the next general election that all the usual political parties are standing in your seat except that the [OTHER PARTY1] and [OTHER PARTY2] have agreed not to stand and are asking their supporters to vote [SELECTED PARTY]. Which party, if any, would you vote for, in this general election?
This had three particular instances, depending on which pact party was selected for the relevant seat. These question variants were:
Q2A. [For voters in seats selected for Labour] Suppose at the next general election that all the usual political parties are standing in your seat except that the Liberal Democrats and the Greens have agreed not to stand and are asking their supporters to vote Labour. Which party, if any, would you vote for, in this general election?
Q2B. [For voters in seats selected for the Liberal Democrats] Suppose at the next general election that all the usual political parties are standing in your seat except that Labour and the Greens have agreed not to stand and are asking their supporters to vote Liberal Democrat. Which party, if any, would you vote for, in this general election?
Q2C. [For voters in seats selected for the Green party] Suppose at the next general election that all the usual political parties are standing in your seat except that Labour and the Liberal Democrats have agreed not to stand and are asking their supporters to vote Green. Which party, if any, would you vote for, in this general election?
Respondents were not given the option of voting for a pact party which was not selected for their own seat. Respondents were given the additional option of "Would not vote" if the existence of the pact made them to decide on that.
An additional third question was asked about turnout conditional on the existence of the pact, but responses suggested some misunderstanding of this complex double-hypothesis, and the question was not used in the analysis.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said "Voters seem quite open to the idea of an electoral pact – which would make quite a difference to the election result and could eject Boris Johnson from Downing Street."
Chris Holbrook, founder of Find Out Now, said "As Labour struggle to cohere, the left could still organise and steal the march on the Conservatives in the next election, especially if their vaccine buoyancy subsides."
Find Out Now polled 14,596 GB adults online between 4-6 June 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
The table shows current and predicted winning party in 58 seats which the poll predicts would change hands.
| Seat name | Current | Predicted |
|---|---|---|
| Altrincham and Sale West | CON | LAB |
| Birmingham Northfield | CON | LAB |
| Blyth Valley | CON | LAB |
| Bolton North East | CON | LAB |
| Bournemouth East | CON | Green |
| Bournemouth West | CON | Green |
| Burnley | CON | LAB |
| Bury North | CON | LAB |
| Bury South | CON | LAB |
| Cambridgeshire South | CON | LIB |
| Cambridgeshire South East | CON | LIB |
| Carshalton and Wallington | CON | LIB |
| Cheadle | CON | LIB |
| Chelsea and Fulham | CON | LIB |
| Cheltenham | CON | LIB |
| Chingford and Woodford Green | CON | LAB |
| Chipping Barnet | CON | LAB |
| Cities of London and Westminster | CON | LIB |
| Colne Valley | CON | LAB |
| Darlington | CON | LAB |
| Derby North | CON | LAB |
| Dewsbury | CON | LAB |
| Durham North West | CON | LAB |
| Finchley and Golders Green | CON | LIB |
| Gedling | CON | LAB |
| Guildford | CON | LIB |
| Hazel Grove | CON | LIB |
| Hendon | CON | LAB |
| Heywood and Middleton | CON | LAB |
| High Peak | CON | LAB |
| Hitchin and Harpenden | CON | LIB |
| Keighley | CON | LAB |
| Kensington | CON | LAB |
| Leigh | CON | LAB |
| Lewes | CON | Green |
| Lincoln | CON | LAB |
| Northampton South | CON | LAB |
| Pudsey | CON | LAB |
| Reigate | CON | Green |
| Rushcliffe | CON | LAB |
| Somerset North | CON | Green |
| Southport | CON | LAB |
| Stoke-on-Trent Central | CON | LAB |
| Stroud | CON | Green |
| Truro and Falmouth | CON | Green |
| Warrington South | CON | LAB |
| Watford | CON | LAB |
| Wimbledon | CON | LIB |
| Winchester | CON | LIB |
| Woking | CON | LIB |
| Wycombe | CON | LAB |
| Aberconwy | CON | LAB |
| Bridgend | CON | LAB |
| Clwyd South | CON | LAB |
| Delyn | CON | LAB |
| Vale of Clwyd | CON | LAB |
| Vale of Glamorgan | CON | Green |
| Wrexham | CON | LAB |
Aberavon, Aberconwy, Aldershot, Aldridge-Brownhills, Altrincham and Sale West, Alyn and Deeside, Amber Valley, Arfon, Ashfield, Ashford, Ashton under Lyne, Aylesbury, Banbury, Barking, Barnsley Central, Barnsley East, Barrow and Furness, Basildon and Billericay, Basildon South and East Thurrock, Basingstoke, Bassetlaw, Batley and Spen, Battersea, Beaconsfield, Beckenham, Bedford, Bedfordshire Mid, Bedfordshire North East, Bedfordshire South West, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Bethnal Green and Bow, Beverley and Holderness, Bexhill and Battle, Bexleyheath and Crayford, Birkenhead, Birmingham Edgbaston, Birmingham Erdington, Birmingham Hall Green, Birmingham Hodge Hill, Birmingham Ladywood, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Perry Barr, Birmingham Selly Oak, Birmingham Yardley, Bishop Auckland, Blackburn, Blackley and Broughton, Blackpool North and Cleveleys, Blackpool South, Blaenau Gwent, Blaydon, Blyth Valley, Bognor Regis and Littlehampton, Bolsover, Bolton North East, Bolton South East, Bolton West, Bootle, Boston and Skegness, Bosworth, Bracknell, Bradford East, Bradford South, Bradford West, Braintree, Brent Central, Brent North, Brentford and Isleworth, Brentwood and Ongar, Bridgend, Bridgwater and West Somerset, Brigg and Goole, Brighton Kemptown, Bristol East, Bristol North West, Bristol South, Bristol West, Broadland, Bromley and Chislehurst, Bromsgrove, Broxbourne, Broxtowe, Burnley, Burton, Bury North, Bury South, Caerphilly, Calder Valley, Camberwell and Peckham, Camborne and Redruth, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire North East, Cambridgeshire North West, Canterbury, Cardiff Central, Cardiff North, Cardiff South and Penarth, Cardiff West, Carlisle, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South, Castle Point, Charnwood, Chatham and Aylesford, Chester, City of, Chesterfield, Chingford and Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Chorley, Clacton, Cleethorpes, Clwyd South, Clwyd West, Colchester, Colne Valley, Congleton, Copeland, Corby, Cornwall South East, Coventry North East, Coventry North West, Coventry South, Crawley, Crewe and Nantwich, Croydon Central, Croydon North, Croydon South, Cynon Valley, Dagenham and Rainham, Darlington, Dartford, Daventry, Delyn, Denton and Reddish, Derby North, Derby South, Derbyshire Dales, Derbyshire Mid, Derbyshire North East, Derbyshire South, Devon Central, Devon East, Devon South West, Dewsbury, Don Valley, Doncaster Central, Doncaster North, Dorset South, Dover, Dudley North, Dudley South, Dulwich and West Norwood, Durham North, Durham North West, Durham, City of, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Ealing Central and Acton, Ealing North, Ealing Southall, Easington, East Ham, Eddisbury, Edmonton, Ellesmere Port and Neston, Elmet and Rothwell, Eltham, Enfield North, Enfield Southgate, Epping Forest, Erewash, Erith and Thamesmead, Exeter, Fareham, Faversham and Kent Mid, Feltham and Heston, Filton and Bradley Stoke, Folkestone and Hythe, Fylde, Gainsborough, Garston and Halewood, Gateshead, Gedling, Gillingham and Rainham, Gloucester, Gosport, Gower, Grantham and Stamford, Gravesham, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Greenwich and Woolwich, Hackney North and Stoke Newington, Hackney South and Shoreditch, Halesowen and Rowley Regis, Halifax, Haltemprice and Howden, Halton, Hammersmith, Hampstead and Kilburn, Harborough, Harlow, Harrow East, Harrow West, Hartlepool, Harwich and North Essex, Hastings and Rye, Havant, Hayes and Harlington, Hemel Hempstead, Hemsworth, Hendon, Hereford and South Herefordshire, Hertford and Stortford, Hertfordshire North East, Hertfordshire South West, Hertsmere, Hexham, Heywood and Middleton, High Peak, Holborn and St Pancras, Hornchurch and Upminster, Hornsey and Wood Green, Houghton and Sunderland South, Hove, Huddersfield, Hull East, Hull North, Hull West and Hessle, Huntingdon, Hyndburn, Ilford North, Ilford South, Ipswich, Islington North, Islington South and Finsbury, Islwyn, Jarrow, Keighley, Kensington, Kettering, Kingswood, Knowsley, Lancashire West, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Leeds Central, Leeds East, Leeds North East, Leeds North West, Leeds West, Leicester East, Leicester South, Leicester West, Leicestershire North West, Leicestershire South, Leigh, Lewisham Deptford, Lewisham East, Lewisham West and Penge, Leyton and Wanstead, Lichfield, Lincoln, Liverpool Riverside, Liverpool Walton, Liverpool Wavertree, Liverpool West Derby, Llanelli, Loughborough, Louth and Horncastle, Luton North, Luton South, Macclesfield, Maidstone and The Weald, Makerfield, Maldon, Manchester Central, Manchester Gorton, Manchester Withington, Mansfield, Meriden, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney, Middlesbrough, Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, Milton Keynes North, Milton Keynes South, Mitcham and Morden, Monmouth, Morecambe and Lunesdale, Morley and Outwood, Neath, New Forest East, Newark, Newcastle upon Tyne Central, Newcastle upon Tyne East, Newcastle upon Tyne North, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Newport East, Newport West, Norfolk Mid, Norfolk North West, Norfolk South, Norfolk South West, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, Northampton North, Northampton South, Northamptonshire South, Norwich North, Norwich South, Nottingham East, Nottingham North, Nottingham South, Nuneaton, Ogmore, Old Bexley and Sidcup, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Oldham West and Royton, Orpington, Oxford East, Pendle, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Penrith and The Border, Peterborough, Plymouth Moor View, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Pontypridd, Poole, Poplar and Limehouse, Portsmouth North, Portsmouth South, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Preston, Pudsey, Putney, Rayleigh and Wickford, Reading East, Reading West, Redcar, Redditch, Rhondda, Ribble South, Ribble Valley, Richmond, Rochdale, Rochester and Strood, Rochford and Southend East, Romford, Rossendale and Darwen, Rother Valley, Rotherham, Rugby, Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, Runnymede and Weybridge, Rushcliffe, Salford and Eccles, Scarborough and Whitby, Scunthorpe, Sedgefield, Sefton Central, Selby and Ainsty, Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough, Sheffield Central, Sheffield Hallam, Sheffield Heeley, Sheffield South East, Sherwood, Shipley, Shrewsbury and Atcham, Shropshire North, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, Skipton and Ripon, Sleaford and North Hykeham, Slough, Solihull, Somerset North East, South Holland and The Deepings, South Shields, Southampton Itchen, Southampton Test, Southend West, Southport, Spelthorne, St Austell and Newquay, St Helens North, St Helens South and Whiston, Staffordshire Moorlands, Stalybridge and Hyde, Stevenage, Stockport, Stockton North, Stockton South, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stoke-on-Trent South, Stone, Stourbridge, Streatham, Stretford and Urmston, Suffolk Central and Ipswich North, Suffolk Coastal, Suffolk South, Suffolk West, Sunderland Central, Sutton Coldfield, Swansea East, Swansea West, Swindon North, Swindon South, Tamworth, Tatton, Telford, Thanet North, Thanet South, Thirsk and Malton, Thurrock, Tiverton and Honiton, Tooting, Torfaen, Tottenham, Tynemouth, Tyneside North, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Vale of Clwyd, Vauxhall, Wakefield, Wallasey, Walsall North, Walsall South, Walthamstow, Wansbeck, Warley, Warrington North, Warrington South, Warwick and Leamington, Warwickshire North, Washington and Sunderland West, Watford, Waveney, Weaver Vale, Wellingborough, Welwyn Hatfield, Wentworth and Dearne, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, West Ham, Westminster North, Weston-Super-Mare, Wigan, Wiltshire South West, Wirral South, Wirral West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South East, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester, Worcestershire Mid, Workington, Worsley and Eccles South, Worthing East and Shoreham, Worthing West, Wrekin, The, Wrexham, Wycombe, Wyre and Preston North, Wyre Forest, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Ynys Mon, York Central, York Outer, Yorkshire East.
Arundel and South Downs, Bath, Brecon and Radnorshire, Buckingham, Cambridgeshire South, Cambridgeshire South East, Carshalton and Wallington, Ceredigion, Cheadle, Chelmsford, Chelsea and Fulham, Cheltenham, Chichester, Chippenham, Christchurch, Cities of London and Westminster, Cornwall North, Cotswolds, The, Devizes, Devon North, Devon West and Torridge, Dorset Mid and Poole North, Dorset North, Dorset West, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Epsom and Ewell, Esher and Walton, Finchley and Golders Green, Guildford, Hampshire North East, Hampshire North West, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Hazel Grove, Henley, Hitchin and Harpenden, Horsham, Kenilworth and Southam, Kingston and Surbiton, Ludlow, Maidenhead, Meon Valley, Mole Valley, Montgomeryshire, Newbury, Newton Abbot, Norfolk North, Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Romsey and Southampton North, Saffron Walden, Sevenoaks, St Albans, St Ives, Stratford-on-Avon, Surrey East, Surrey Heath, Surrey South West, Sussex Mid, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton Deane, Tewkesbury, Thornbury and Yate, Tonbridge and Malling, Torbay, Totnes, Tunbridge Wells, Twickenham, Wantage, Wealden, Wells, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Wiltshire North, Wimbledon, Winchester, Windsor, Witney, Woking, Wokingham, Yeovil.
Bournemouth East, Bournemouth West, Brighton Pavilion, Bury St Edmunds, Cannock Chase, Chesham and Amersham, Forest of Dean, Hampshire East, Herefordshire North, Isle of Wight, Lewes, New Forest West, Reigate, Rutland and Melton, Salisbury, Somerset North, Somerton and Frome, Stafford, Staffordshire South, Stroud, Truro and Falmouth, Vale of Glamorgan, Witham, Worcestershire West.