Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run a poll asking people how they would vote in a hypothetical general election contested by each of Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson.
The poll asked GB residents which party they would vote, if there were an immediate general election, and given either of the two possibilities for the new Conservative leader – Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson.
In summary:
We asked 2,045 people three questions. The first asked people how likely they were to vote in a general election, to exclude those respondents who are unlikely to vote. Then we asked the following question twice, once for each leadership candidate, "Assuming that [Rishi Sunak/Boris Johnson] were leader of the Conservative party, and there were a General Election tomorrow, which party, if any, would you vote for?"
| Party | Sunak | Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| CON | 23% | 24% |
| LAB | 53% | 53% |
| LIB | 8% | 8% |
| Reform | 3% | 2% |
| Green | 5% | 5% |
| SNP/Plaid | 6% | 6% |
| OTH | 2% | 2% |
The table excludes those unlikely to vote, who refused to answer, or who didn't know.
Our poll shows that Labour has a lead over the Conservatives of 30pc if Sunak is the leader, and 29pc if Johnson is the leader. This is a small difference, which does not change the predicted parliamentary outcome significantly.
The number of seats won at a general election by each party is estimated in this table
| Party | Sunak | Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| CON | 16 | 27 |
| LAB | 544 | 533 |
| LIB | 14 | 14 |
| SNP | 52 | 52 |
Labour are on course for a massive landslide whichever candidate is chosen. In all cases, Labour could govern as a majority government without the need for support from the SNP or smaller parties.
Boris Johnson does slightly better than Sunak by saving around 11 more Conservative seats. But both candidates would lose their own seats (Richmond, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip) in either scenario.
Boris Johnson was a proven election winner when the Conservatives chose him as leader in 2019, and they chose him mostly for that reason. And his own party have ditched him because they fear he is no longer an electoral asset. This poll shows that they were right to do so, since the Johnson electoral magic has mostly vanished. He is now just a down-to-earth politician like the others. Whether the Conservatives would be in a better place if they had never removed Johnson in the first place is one for the counter-historians to ponder. But, starting from where we are, the Conservatives look set for electoral catastrophe under either leader.
That reduces the incentive for Conservative MPs to hold their nose and back Boris in exchange for an electoral alchemy which has evaporated.
This poll contains a hypothesis ("assuming that [CANDIDATE] were leader of the Conservative party, ..."). Hypothetical polls can give an exaggerated picture of how respondents might actually behave in practice. So how do we know that this poll might be realistic. There are two reasons.
Firstly, Electoral Calculus worked on something similar during the previous Conservative leadership contest in 2019. That poll showed that Boris Johnson was popular with the public and would win a general election with a big majority, and that no other candidate would. That prediction, despite some scepticism at the time, turned out broadly correct.
Secondly, the potential problem with hypothetical polls is that respondents can be overly sensitive and maybe over-dramatic with their responses. That does not seem to be a practical problem with this poll because respondents are notably underwhelmed by the current candidates, and their stated voting patterns are very similar to current national (non-hypothetical) voting intention polls. There is simply not much scope for exaggeration, because there is almost no visible signal. The public are not enthused by these candidates.
Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now: "If Boris joins Rishi in the race for the leadership, he is a shoe-in with the members. Our poll shows they may be overestimating the benefit, and there are clearly risks to consider."
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus: "This is a significant result. The main reason for Boris Johnson's appointment as leader in 2019 was his reputation as an election winner, and this is now in tatters. Last time, many MPs swallowed their doubts in exchange for electoral victory. But that incentive isn't there this time and he could struggle to persuade his colleagues."
Find Out Now polled 2,045 GB adults online on 22-23 October 2022. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Full tables can be downloaded here.