Preview Predictions for the 2025 Local Elections

First published 23 January 2025, revised 5 February 2025

Some of the local elections originally scheduled to take place on 1 May 2025 are being postponed under the government's plans to reorganise councils into larger authorities. Previously, our analysis has found that these would represent the biggest democratic delays in decades.

We now look at what the political landscape could look like if these elections were to go ahead. Below are some rough estimates of the possible results in the councils set to have elections in May, based only on current General Election voting intention, rather than polling on local election voting intention. We have, however, used the new boundaries from the Local Government Boundary Commission for England (LGBCE) for 2025.

Elections are set to take place in 21 county councils, one metropolitan borough, and ten unitary authorities. Out of these, there will not be elections this year in nine authorities (7 county councils and two unitary authorities). Five of the delayed authorities would have had new boundaries in 2025.

Overall approximate seat predictions

We have estimated the number of council seats the parties would gain in 2025 if all the elections went ahead, based on these new boundaries. The table below shows those numbers, plus the comparison to how these councils actually voted in 2021 (adjusted for new boundaries where applicable).

The Conservatives could have significant seat losses in May, while Reform and the Liberal Democrats might make advances. Labour could also do better than their relatively poor showing in 2021, though the simple model may overstate possible Labour gains. The estimates for the Greens and independent candidates may not be very reliable, since their performance at local elections can be very different to general election voting patterns.

Approximate Council predictions

We also calculated the party, or combination of parties, who might be in control of council after new elections.

The following 16 councils are currently Conservative controlled, and the Conservatives might lose full or partial control:

We estimate that nine councils could be lost to centre-left parties. In the remaining seven councils, the Conservatives might have to form an alliance with Reform UK in order to retain partial control. In all seven of these councils, the Conservatives would have more seats than Reform. But this gives a chance for Reform to get its first taste of local government power.

Due to the announced delays, the number of Conservative losses would be cut from 16 to 12 councils.

The next four councils may have changes, but are not currently Conservative-held.

In Thurrock, Reform UK would have a chance of taking control of the council as the main party in charge. But this election will be delayed.

The final dozen councils are unlikely to see a change in overall control:

Summary

It should be observed that the Labour party does not gain a significant partisan advantage from the delays to local council elections. They may gain Durham, Northumberland and Derbyshire, where elections are going ahead, but they might also have gained partial control of East Sussex and West Sussex where elections are delayed.

In party terms, the main beneficiaries from the delays are the Conservatives, who keep four councils which they might otherwise have lost. And the main losers are the Liberal Democrats who have lost the chance of full or partial control in three councils, and Reform UK in two councils.

It should be emphasised that these predictions are very approximate and are only based on Westminster voting intentions. More accurate predictions may be available nearer to the elections when surveys of local election voting intention are conducted.