Regression Poll May 2021

This page first posted 17 May 2021

Pollster Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus have run a regression poll on voting intention for Westminster on behalf of the Sunday Telegraph. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 14,000 respondents, carried out from 13 to 15 May 2021, after the recent local elections.

The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.

Using regression techniques, an individual prediction was made for each of the 632 seats (excluding Northern Ireland).

The headline results are shown in the table:

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Basic VI	Predicted Votes	Predicted Seats	Change
CON	45%	365	43%	43%	386	+21
LAB	33%	203	30%	30%	172	−31
LIB	12%	11	7%	11%	9	−2
Reform	2%	0	3%	2%	0	0
Green	3%	1	9%	9%	2	+1
SNP	4%	48	5%	5%	58	+10
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.7%	0.8%	5	+1

Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ slightly from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This particularly affects the Liberal Democrats in this case where the more sophisticated approach estimates a higher vote share than classic polling analysis.

This gives an estimated Conservative lead over Labour of 13pc. This is large increase on their average lead of 5pc in polls taken before the local elections. It appears that the aftermath of the local elections has triggered a loss of support from Labour.

The prediction is that the Conservatives would gain a landslide majority of 122 seats in the House of Commons.

Regression Polling

Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, the 2021 local elections and the 2019 European elections.

These techniques work by spotting patterns between people's demographic characteristics and their likelihood to vote for various parties. You can see more details here.

Changes by Region

The Conservatives are predicted to pick up 23 seats from Labour in the Midlands and North of England, but only 6 seats in the London and the South. This includes more 'Red Wall' seats in Teesside, Sunderland, West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire.

The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.

In Wales, the Conservatives are predicted to lose two seats.

The Greens are predicted to hold Brighton Pavilion and to gain Bristol West from Labour.

Changes by MP

Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats:

• Ed Miliband, former Labour leader, Doncaster North (Con)
• Tim Farron, former Lib Dem leader, Westmorland and Lonsdale (Con)
• Yvette Cooper (Lab) in Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (Con)
• Jon Cruddas (Lab) in Dagenham and Rainham (Con)
• Alister Jack (Con), Scottish Secretary, Dumfries and Galloway (SNP)

Commentary

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now said "As the successful vaccine rollout continues to endear the Conservatives to a beleaguered nation, Labour's rebuild seems to have not progressed past the destructive phase. The Greens are benefiting particularly at the moment from Labour's present weakness."

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus said: "The aftermath of the local elections has seen a slide in support away from Labour. The Conservatives now have a double digit-lead over Labour, and could be on course for a landslide majority. The existential question is looming large for Labour as its traditional supporters continue to abandon it. A divided opposition with votes split between Labour, Lib Dems and Greens pretty makes it easy for the Conservatives to win. Only in Scotland and Wales, where the Conservatives are not the largest party, does their winning formula break down."

List of Seats Predicted to Change Hands

There are 45 seats which are predicted to change hands, relative to the election result of 2019. These are listed in the table below.

Seat Name	Current	Predicted	MP as at 2019
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	CON	SNP	Andrew Bowie
Banff and Buchan	CON	SNP	David Duguid
Barnsley East	LAB	CON	Stephanie Peacock
Bedford	LAB	CON	Mohammad Yasin
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	CON	SNP	John Lamont
Birmingham Erdington	LAB	CON	Jack Dromey
Bradford South	LAB	CON	Judith Cummins
Bridgend	CON	LAB	Jamie Wallis
Bristol North West	LAB	CON	Darren Jones
Bristol West	LAB	Green	Thangam Debbonaire
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	LIB	SNP	Jamie Stone
Canterbury	LAB	CON	Rosie Duffield
Chesterfield	LAB	CON	Toby Perkins
Coventry North West	LAB	CON	Taiwo Owatemi
Coventry South	LAB	CON	Zarah Sultana
Dagenham and Rainham	LAB	CON	Jon Cruddas
Doncaster Central	LAB	CON	Rosie Winterton
Doncaster North	LAB	CON	Ed Miliband
Dumfries and Galloway	CON	SNP	Alister Jack
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	CON	SNP	David Mundell
Edinburgh South	LAB	SNP	Ian Murray
Edinburgh West	LIB	SNP	Christine Jardine
Fife North East	LIB	SNP	Wendy Chamberlain
Halifax	LAB	CON	Holly Lynch
Hartlepool	LAB	CON	Mike Hill
Hemsworth	LAB	CON	Jon Trickett
Houghton and Sunderland South	LAB	CON	Bridget Phillipson
Hull East	LAB	CON	Karl Turner
Lewes	CON	LIB	Maria Caulfield
Moray	CON	SNP	Douglas Ross
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford	LAB	CON	Yvette Cooper
Oldham East and Saddleworth	LAB	CON	Debbie Abrahams
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	LAB	CON	Luke Pollard
Reading East	LAB	CON	Matt Rodda
Sheffield Hallam	LAB	LIB	Olivia Blake
Stockton North	LAB	CON	Alex Cunningham
Sunderland Central	LAB	CON	Julie Elliott
Walsall South	LAB	CON	Valerie Vaz
Wansbeck	LAB	CON	Ian Lavery
Warwick and Leamington	LAB	CON	Matt Western
Weaver Vale	LAB	CON	Mike Amesbury
Wentworth and Dearne	LAB	CON	John Healey
Westmorland and Lonsdale	LIB	CON	Tim Farron
Wolverhampton South East	LAB	CON	Pat McFadden
Ynys Mon	CON	Plaid	Virginia Crosbie

Fieldwork

Find Out Now polled 14,715 GB adults online between 13-15 May 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Full Tables (Excel spreadsheet)