Pollster Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus have run a regression poll on voting intention for Westminster on behalf of the Sunday Telegraph. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 14,000 respondents, carried out from 13 to 15 May 2021, after the recent local elections.
The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.
Using regression techniques, an individual prediction was made for each of the 632 seats (excluding Northern Ireland).
The headline results are shown in the table:
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Basic VI | Predicted Votes | Predicted Seats | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 45% | 365 | 43% | 43% | 386 | +21 |
| LAB | 33% | 203 | 30% | 30% | 172 | −31 |
| LIB | 12% | 11 | 7% | 11% | 9 | −2 |
| Reform | 2% | 0 | 3% | 2% | 0 | 0 |
| Green | 3% | 1 | 9% | 9% | 2 | +1 |
| SNP | 4% | 48 | 5% | 5% | 58 | +10 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 5 | +1 |
Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ slightly from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This particularly affects the Liberal Democrats in this case where the more sophisticated approach estimates a higher vote share than classic polling analysis.
This gives an estimated Conservative lead over Labour of 13pc. This is large increase on their average lead of 5pc in polls taken before the local elections. It appears that the aftermath of the local elections has triggered a loss of support from Labour.
The prediction is that the Conservatives would gain a landslide majority of 122 seats in the House of Commons.
Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, the 2021 local elections and the 2019 European elections.
These techniques work by spotting patterns between people's demographic characteristics and their likelihood to vote for various parties. You can see more details here.
The Conservatives are predicted to pick up 23 seats from Labour in the Midlands and North of England, but only 6 seats in the London and the South. This includes more 'Red Wall' seats in Teesside, Sunderland, West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire.
The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.
In Wales, the Conservatives are predicted to lose two seats.
The Greens are predicted to hold Brighton Pavilion and to gain Bristol West from Labour.
Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats:
Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now said "As the successful vaccine rollout continues to endear the Conservatives to a beleaguered nation, Labour's rebuild seems to have not progressed past the destructive phase. The Greens are benefiting particularly at the moment from Labour's present weakness."
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus said: "The aftermath of the local elections has seen a slide in support away from Labour. The Conservatives now have a double digit-lead over Labour, and could be on course for a landslide majority. The existential question is looming large for Labour as its traditional supporters continue to abandon it. A divided opposition with votes split between Labour, Lib Dems and Greens pretty makes it easy for the Conservatives to win. Only in Scotland and Wales, where the Conservatives are not the largest party, does their winning formula break down."
There are 45 seats which are predicted to change hands, relative to the election result of 2019. These are listed in the table below.
| Seat Name | Current | Predicted | MP as at 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | CON | SNP | Andrew Bowie |
| Banff and Buchan | CON | SNP | David Duguid |
| Barnsley East | LAB | CON | Stephanie Peacock |
| Bedford | LAB | CON | Mohammad Yasin |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | CON | SNP | John Lamont |
| Birmingham Erdington | LAB | CON | Jack Dromey |
| Bradford South | LAB | CON | Judith Cummins |
| Bridgend | CON | LAB | Jamie Wallis |
| Bristol North West | LAB | CON | Darren Jones |
| Bristol West | LAB | Green | Thangam Debbonaire |
| Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross | LIB | SNP | Jamie Stone |
| Canterbury | LAB | CON | Rosie Duffield |
| Chesterfield | LAB | CON | Toby Perkins |
| Coventry North West | LAB | CON | Taiwo Owatemi |
| Coventry South | LAB | CON | Zarah Sultana |
| Dagenham and Rainham | LAB | CON | Jon Cruddas |
| Doncaster Central | LAB | CON | Rosie Winterton |
| Doncaster North | LAB | CON | Ed Miliband |
| Dumfries and Galloway | CON | SNP | Alister Jack |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | CON | SNP | David Mundell |
| Edinburgh South | LAB | SNP | Ian Murray |
| Edinburgh West | LIB | SNP | Christine Jardine |
| Fife North East | LIB | SNP | Wendy Chamberlain |
| Halifax | LAB | CON | Holly Lynch |
| Hartlepool | LAB | CON | Mike Hill |
| Hemsworth | LAB | CON | Jon Trickett |
| Houghton and Sunderland South | LAB | CON | Bridget Phillipson |
| Hull East | LAB | CON | Karl Turner |
| Lewes | CON | LIB | Maria Caulfield |
| Moray | CON | SNP | Douglas Ross |
| Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford | LAB | CON | Yvette Cooper |
| Oldham East and Saddleworth | LAB | CON | Debbie Abrahams |
| Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | LAB | CON | Luke Pollard |
| Reading East | LAB | CON | Matt Rodda |
| Sheffield Hallam | LAB | LIB | Olivia Blake |
| Stockton North | LAB | CON | Alex Cunningham |
| Sunderland Central | LAB | CON | Julie Elliott |
| Walsall South | LAB | CON | Valerie Vaz |
| Wansbeck | LAB | CON | Ian Lavery |
| Warwick and Leamington | LAB | CON | Matt Western |
| Weaver Vale | LAB | CON | Mike Amesbury |
| Wentworth and Dearne | LAB | CON | John Healey |
| Westmorland and Lonsdale | LIB | CON | Tim Farron |
| Wolverhampton South East | LAB | CON | Pat McFadden |
| Ynys Mon | CON | Plaid | Virginia Crosbie |
Find Out Now polled 14,715 GB adults online between 13-15 May 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Full Tables (Excel spreadsheet)