Regression Poll February 2022

This page first posted 25 February 2022

Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run a MRP poll on voting intention for Westminster. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 12,500 respondents, carried out from 14-18 February.

The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.

The headline voting intention is shown in the highlighted column:

	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Basic VI	Predicted Votes	Predicted Seats	Change
CON	45%	365	31%	32%	243	-122
LAB	33%	203	39%	38%	308	105
LIB	12%	11	10%	13%	16	5
Reform	2%	0	3%	3%	0	0
Green	3%	1	8%	7%	1	0
SNP	4%	48	4%	5%	59	11
Plaid	0.5%	4	0.7%	0.9%	5	1

Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ slightly from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This modifies the parties' vote shares slightly.

This gives an estimated Labour lead over the Conservatives of 6pc. That is a big gain for Labour since December, when they were one point behind the Conservatives. Overall it represents a swing of 9pc from Conservative to Labour since the last general election.

The regression techniques of MRP polling allow predictions to be made for each individual seat in GB. The prediction is that the Conservatives would lose power and Labour would be the largest party in the House of Commons. Labour would be short of an overall majority, but could form a minority government with the support of either the SNP or a LibDem/Plaid three-way alliance. Keir Starmer would likely be Prime Minister.

Changes by Region

The Conservatives are predicted to lose seats particularly in the North West, East Midlands, Wales and Yorks/Humber with Labour as the main beneficiary.

The SNP are predicted to gain 11 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.

Changes by MP

Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats:

• Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and South Ruislip), Prime Minister
• Dominic Raab (Esher and Walton), Deputy PM
• Alok Sharma (Reading West), cabinet minister
• Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford and Woodford Green), former Conservative party leader
• Theresa Villiers (Chipping Barnet), former cabinet minister
• Graham Brady (Altrincham and Sale West), chairman of the Backbench 1922 Committee
• Steve Baker (Wycombe), former chair of European Research Group
• Tobias Ellwood (Bournemouth East), chair of Defence Select committee
• Robert Buckland (Swindon South), former cabinet minister

Seats Predicted to Change Hands

See the appendix for the full list.

Quotes

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now: "This poll shows a marked improvement in the Conservative situation, perhaps showing a willingness to forgive, and if not, the healing power of a geopolitical crisis. The gap has waxed and waned of late, so it will be interesting to see what happens when Sue Gray and the Met release their full reports."

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus: "As Labour's lead over the Conservatives has shrunk back from its partygate peak, the Conservatives will be wondering if they can recover more of their lost ground. The upcoming local elections may give a sign of whether the electorate is prepared to give their trust to the Conservatives again."

Technical Details

Find Out Now polled 12,700 GB adults online between 14-18 February 2022. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

The British Polling Council comments "All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party's support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points."

Full Tables (Excel spreadsheet)

Appendix: List of Seats Predicted to Change Hands

There are 127 seats which are predicted to change hands, relative to the election result of 2019. These are listed in the table below.

Seat Name	Current	Predicted	MP as at 2019
Altrincham and Sale West	CON	LAB	Graham Brady
Ashfield	CON	LAB	Lee Anderson
Barrow and Furness	CON	LAB	Simon Fell
Birmingham Northfield	CON	LAB	Gary Sambrook
Bishop Auckland	CON	LAB	Dehenna Davison
Blackpool North and Cleveleys	CON	LAB	Paul Maynard
Blackpool South	CON	LAB	Scott Benton
Blyth Valley	CON	LAB	Ian Levy
Bolsover	CON	LAB	Mark Fletcher
Bolton North East	CON	LAB	Mark Logan
Bolton West	CON	LAB	Chris Green
Bournemouth East	CON	LAB	Tobias Ellwood
Broxtowe	CON	LAB	Darren Henry
Burnley	CON	LAB	Antony Higginbotham
Bury North	CON	LAB	James Daly
Bury South	CON	LAB	Christian Wakeford
Calder Valley	CON	LAB	Craig Whittaker
Cambridgeshire South	CON	LIB	Anthony Browne
Carlisle	CON	LAB	John Stevenson
Carshalton and Wallington	CON	LIB	Elliot Colburn
Chelsea and Fulham	CON	LAB	Greg Hands
Cheltenham	CON	LIB	Alex Chalk
Chingford and Woodford Green	CON	LAB	Iain Duncan Smith
Chipping Barnet	CON	LAB	Theresa Villiers
Cities of London and Westminster	CON	LAB	Nickie Aiken
Colchester	CON	LAB	Will Quince
Colne Valley	CON	LAB	Jason McCartney
Copeland	CON	LAB	Trudy Harrison
Corby	CON	LAB	Tom Pursglove
Crawley	CON	LAB	Henry Smith
Crewe and Nantwich	CON	LAB	Kieran Mullan
Darlington	CON	LAB	Peter Gibson
Derby North	CON	LAB	Amanda Solloway
Dewsbury	CON	LAB	Mark Eastwood
Don Valley	CON	LAB	Nick Fletcher
Durham North West	CON	LAB	Richard Holden
Eastbourne	CON	LIB	Caroline Ansell
Erewash	CON	LAB	Maggie Throup
Esher and Walton	CON	LIB	Dominic Raab
Filton and Bradley Stoke	CON	LAB	Jack Lopresti
Finchley and Golders Green	CON	LAB	Mike Freer
Gedling	CON	LAB	Tom Randall
Great Grimsby	CON	LAB	Lia Nici
Guildford	CON	LIB	Angela Richardson
Harrow East	CON	LAB	Bob Blackman
Hastings and Rye	CON	LAB	Sally-Ann Hart
Hendon	CON	LAB	Matthew Offord
Hexham	CON	LAB	Guy Opperman
Heywood and Middleton	CON	LAB	Chris Clarkson
High Peak	CON	LAB	Robert Largan
Hyndburn	CON	LAB	Sara Britcliffe
Ipswich	CON	LAB	Tom Hunt
Keighley	CON	LAB	Robbie Moore
Kensington	CON	LAB	Felicity Buchan
Leigh	CON	LAB	James Grundy
Lewes	CON	LIB	Maria Caulfield
Lincoln	CON	LAB	Karl McCartney
Loughborough	CON	LAB	Jane Hunt
Macclesfield	CON	LAB	David Rutley
Milton Keynes North	CON	LAB	Ben Everitt
Milton Keynes South	CON	LAB	Iain Stewart
Morecambe and Lunesdale	CON	LAB	David Morris
Morley and Outwood	CON	LAB	Andrea Jenkyns
Northampton North	CON	LAB	Michael Ellis
Northampton South	CON	LAB	Andrew Lewer
Norwich North	CON	LAB	Chloe Smith
Pendle	CON	LAB	Andrew Stephenson
Penistone and Stocksbridge	CON	LAB	Miriam Cates
Peterborough	CON	LAB	Paul Bristow
Pudsey	CON	LAB	Stuart Andrew
Reading West	CON	LAB	Alok Sharma
Redcar	CON	LAB	Jacob Young
Ribble South	CON	LAB	Katherine Fletcher
Rossendale and Darwen	CON	LAB	Jake Berry
Rother Valley	CON	LAB	Alexander Stafford
Rushcliffe	CON	LAB	Ruth Edwards
Scarborough and Whitby	CON	LAB	Robert Goodwill
Scunthorpe	CON	LAB	Holly Mumby-Croft
Sedgefield	CON	LAB	Paul Howell
Shipley	CON	LAB	Philip Davies
Southampton Itchen	CON	LAB	Royston Smith
Southport	CON	LAB	Damien Moore
St Ives	CON	LIB	Derek Thomas
Stevenage	CON	LAB	Stephen McPartland
Stockton South	CON	LAB	Matt Vickers
Stoke-on-Trent Central	CON	LAB	Jo Gideon
Stroud	CON	LAB	Siobhan Baillie
Swindon South	CON	LAB	Robert Buckland
Truro and Falmouth	CON	LAB	Cherilyn Mackrory
Uxbridge and South Ruislip	CON	LAB	Boris Johnson
Wakefield	CON	LAB	Imran Ahmad-Khan
Warrington South	CON	LAB	Andy Carter
Watford	CON	LAB	Dean Russell
West Bromwich East	CON	LAB	Nicola Richards
West Bromwich West	CON	LAB	Shaun Bailey
Wimbledon	CON	LAB	Stephen Hammond
Winchester	CON	LIB	Steve Brine
Wolverhampton North East	CON	LAB	Jane Stevenson
Wolverhampton South West	CON	LAB	Stuart Anderson
Worcester	CON	LAB	Robin Walker
Workington	CON	LAB	Mark Jenkinson
Worthing East and Shoreham	CON	LAB	Tim Loughton
Wycombe	CON	LAB	Steve Baker
York Outer	CON	LAB	Julian Sturdy
Aberconwy	CON	LAB	Robin Millar
Bridgend	CON	LAB	Jamie Wallis
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	CON	LAB	Simon Hart
Clwyd South	CON	LAB	Simon Baynes
Clwyd West	CON	LAB	David Jones
Delyn	CON	LAB	Rob Roberts
Monmouth	CON	LAB	David Davies
Preseli Pembrokeshire	CON	LAB	Stephen Crabb
Vale of Clwyd	CON	LAB	James Davies
Vale of Glamorgan	CON	LAB	Alun Cairns
Wrexham	CON	LAB	Sarah Atherton
Ynys Mon	CON	Plaid	Virginia Crosbie
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	CON	SNP	Andrew Bowie
Banff and Buchan	CON	SNP	David Duguid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	CON	SNP	John Lamont
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	LIB	SNP	Jamie Stone
Dumfries and Galloway	CON	SNP	Alister Jack
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	CON	SNP	David Mundell
Edinburgh South	LAB	SNP	Ian Murray
Edinburgh West	LIB	SNP	Christine Jardine
Fife North East	LIB	SNP	Wendy Chamberlain
Moray	CON	SNP	Douglas Ross
Orkney and Shetland	LIB	SNP	Alistair Carmichael