Regression Poll February 2022

This page first posted 25 February 2022

Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run a MRP poll on voting intention for Westminster. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 12,500 respondents, carried out from 14-18 February.

The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.

The headline voting intention is shown in the highlighted column:

Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ slightly from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This modifies the parties' vote shares slightly.

This gives an estimated Labour lead over the Conservatives of 6pc. That is a big gain for Labour since December, when they were one point behind the Conservatives. Overall it represents a swing of 9pc from Conservative to Labour since the last general election.

The regression techniques of MRP polling allow predictions to be made for each individual seat in GB. The prediction is that the Conservatives would lose power and Labour would be the largest party in the House of Commons. Labour would be short of an overall majority, but could form a minority government with the support of either the SNP or a LibDem/Plaid three-way alliance. Keir Starmer would likely be Prime Minister.

Changes by Region

The Conservatives are predicted to lose seats particularly in the North West, East Midlands, Wales and Yorks/Humber with Labour as the main beneficiary.

The SNP are predicted to gain 11 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.

Changes by MP

Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats:

• Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and South Ruislip), Prime Minister
• Dominic Raab (Esher and Walton), Deputy PM
• Alok Sharma (Reading West), cabinet minister
• Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford and Woodford Green), former Conservative party leader
• Theresa Villiers (Chipping Barnet), former cabinet minister
• Graham Brady (Altrincham and Sale West), chairman of the Backbench 1922 Committee
• Steve Baker (Wycombe), former chair of European Research Group
• Tobias Ellwood (Bournemouth East), chair of Defence Select committee
• Robert Buckland (Swindon South), former cabinet minister

Seats Predicted to Change Hands

See the appendix for the full list.

Quotes

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now: "This poll shows a marked improvement in the Conservative situation, perhaps showing a willingness to forgive, and if not, the healing power of a geopolitical crisis. The gap has waxed and waned of late, so it will be interesting to see what happens when Sue Gray and the Met release their full reports."

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus: "As Labour's lead over the Conservatives has shrunk back from its partygate peak, the Conservatives will be wondering if they can recover more of their lost ground. The upcoming local elections may give a sign of whether the electorate is prepared to give their trust to the Conservatives again."

Technical Details

Find Out Now polled 12,700 GB adults online between 14-18 February 2022. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

The British Polling Council comments "All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party's support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points."

Full Tables (Excel spreadsheet)

Appendix: List of Seats Predicted to Change Hands

There are 127 seats which are predicted to change hands, relative to the election result of 2019. These are listed in the table below.