Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run a poll on behalf of Fetter Together asking people in Scotland if and they would vote in a hypothetical second independence referendum.
Of those likely to vote in a second referendum:
We asked 1,094 Scottish people two questions. The first asked people how likely they were to vote in a second independence referendum, to exclude those respondents who are unlikely to vote. Then we asked the main question 'If there was a legal referendum tomorrow with the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?", how would you vote?'.
| Response | Fraction of all respondents | Fraction of respondents who answered |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 44% |
| No | 34% | 37% |
| Don't know | 5% | 5% |
| Will not vote | 14% | 15% |
| Decline to answer | 8% | n/a |
The predicted turnout figure of 85pc is very similar to the actual turnout in the 2014 referendum, which suggests that this is still an important issue for most Scots.
If we exclude those who are not likely to vote, the results of the poll are:
| Response | Fraction of respondents likely to vote |
|---|---|
| Yes | 51% |
| No | 43% |
| Don't know | 6% |
The table excludes those unlikely to vote and those who refused to answer.
Our poll shows a clear lead for 'yes' over 'no' in a hypothetical second independence referendum. Adjusting for turnout makes the lead even clearer, as it was only around 4pc without that adjustment.
Experience has shown that turnout is an important factor in both elections and referendums. The EU Referendum in 2016 was won by the 'Leave' side partly because turnout was higher than expected among leave supporters.
The next table shows the likelihood to vote by age, comparing this poll on Scottish Independence with a recent GB-wide poll on Westminster voting intention.
| Poll | All adults | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-54 | 55-64 | 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish Independence Poll 1-8 Dec 2022 | 85% | 74% | 85% | 84% | 84% | 89% | 90% |
| GB-wide Westminster VI Poll 23-27 Sep 2022 | 62% | 49% | 51% | 56% | 61% | 68% | 80% |
Likelihood to vote (excluding those who refused to answer, but including don't knows).
These data show firstly that Scottish Independence is more motivating for voters than a general election. But they also show there is a relatively larger increase in likelihood to vote among younger (and more nationalist) voters, which helps the independence side.
Find Out Now polled 1,094 Scottish adults online on 1-8 December 2022. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Full tables can be downloaded here.