The Liberal Democrats won the Shropshire North by-election in a shock result. They increased their share of the vote from 10% at the 2019 general election to 47%. The Conservative vote fell from 63% down to 32%. Labour's vote was squeezed from 22% to 10%.
If this massive swing to the Liberal Democrats was repeated nationally, the Conservatives would be on 16%, Labour on 18%, and the Liberal Democrats 48%. This would translate into a landslide Liberal Democrat victory with the party winning 542 seats in the House of Commons, with the SNP as the official opposition, and Labour in third place on 24 seats. The Conservative party would be wiped out electorally and would win no seats.
| Party | GE Votes | GE Seats | Implied votes with by- election swing | Implied Seats with by- election swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 45% | 365 | 16% | 0 |
| LAB | 33% | 203 | 18% | 24 |
| LIB | 12% | 11 | 48% | 542 |
| Reform | 2% | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| Green | 3% | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| SNP | 4% | 48 | 5% | 59 |
| Plaid | 0.5% | 4 | 1% | 5 |
| Other | 18 | 19 |
In reality, this scenario is unlikely to happen. The by-election vote was a large-scale protest against parliamentary sleaze and the government's other recent problems.
But it is worrying for the Conservatives because even if the actual national swing is only a fraction of the Shropshire North swing, it could still be very damaging for their electoral prospects.
The result does not bring much joy to the official opposition either. Although Labour was in second place at the general election, and well ahead of the Liberal Democrats, it was the smaller party which overtook Labour and squeezed their vote. The by-election result does not show great enthusiasm from actual voters for Keir Starmer's Labour party.
But new national polling shows the country could be moving in a more pro-Labour direction.
Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have also run some polling on Westminster voting intention and other questions on behalf of the Telegraph. This poll of 1,017 respondents was carried out this week from 14-15 December 2021.
The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.
The headline voting intention is shown in the highlighted column:
| Party | Vote share at GE2019 | Seats won at GE 2019 | Polling Estimated Vote Share | Predicted Seats Won |
| CON | 45% | 365 | 30% | 236 |
| LAB | 33% | 203 | 38% | 320 |
| LIB | 12% | 11 | 10% | 11 |
| Reform | 2% | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| Green | 3% | 1 | 10% | 1 |
This is still a dramatic swing away from the Conservatives, although in a different direction from the by-election result. Our national poll shows a swing to Labour which would be large enough to make Keir Starmer the new Prime Minister. Our prediction is that Labour could win 320 seats, which is just 6 seats short of an overall majority.
Our poll also asked voters about their perceptions of the government and its recent difficulties.
Some commentators have suggested that the Christmas party scandal and sleaze issues makes the government appear selfish, elitist and uncaring. Others have suggested that a perception of government incompetence could be more damaging. To find out whether either or both of these is worrying the public, we asked some further questions of our sample.
| Reponses | Percentage of all voters responding | Percentage of Conservative voters responding |
| Yes, I trust the government less | 64% | 42% |
| No, I trust the government all the same | 24% | 46% |
| Don't know | 12% | 12% |
A strong majority of the public reports trusts the government less following reports of a Downing Street Christmas party last year. Even 42% of Conservative voters have less trust in the government because of this.
| Reponses | Percentage of all voters responding | Percentage of Conservative voters responding |
| Yes | 22% | 49% |
| No | 63% | 33% |
| Don't know | 16% | 18% |
Another equally strong majority of the public does not think the government is competent. This extends to 33% of those who voted Conservative in 2019.
| Statement | Agree (net) | Neutral | Disagree (net) | Don't know |
| This government can relate to ordinary people | 10% | 15% | 72% | 3% |
| This government is in it for themselves | 69% | 16% | 12% | 3% |
| This government is on the side of ordinary people | 10% | 17% | 70% | 3% |
Very large majorities of the public think that the current government cannot relate to ordinary people, is in it for themselves, and are not on the side of ordinary people.
Looking just at those who voted Conservative at the last general election, the results are
| Statement | Agree (net) | Neutral | Disagree (net) | Don't know |
| This government can relate to ordinary people | 25% | 31% | 44% | 1% |
| This government is in it for themselves | 43% | 29% | 27% | 2% |
| This government is on the side of ordinary people | 24% | 34% | 41% | 2% |
Taken together, these questions show the public have lost trust in the government, do not think it is competent, and think that it is out-of-touch and self-interested.
Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now: "We've become accustomed to this government's ability to shrug off its problems, but it looks as if recent events may finally have stripped Johnson's teflon coat. It remains to be seen whether the damage will sustain until the next General Election, but his party might act sooner."
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus: "Both the by-election and our poll bring grim news for the government. As well as being rejected by voters in Shropshire North, the Conservatives are also losing support nationally and would be unlikely to remain in government. The public, including many Conservative voters, think the government is out-of-touch, selfish and incompetent."
"Boris Johnson will hope that things look better for him in after Christmas, but the year ends with the Conservatives in their worst position since he took over as leader."
Find Out Now polled 1,017 GB adults online between 14-15 December 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Data tables are available here.