On behalf of PLMR, Electoral Calculus has conducted a new MRP poll. Polling using MRP, which stands for Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification, is a relatively recent innovation in polling science which have been used to successfully predict the last three British general elections, and gives the estimated result in each Westminster constituency.
Fieldwork was conducted from 21-28 March 2025, with a sample size of over 5,000 people.
More details at the PLMR website.
The poll puts Reform UK two percent ahead of both Labour and Conservatives who are tied in second place. In terms of the number of seats won, Reform are predicted to win the most seats with Labour second and the Conservatives in third place.
The table below gives the prediction in numerical form:
| Party | GE 2024 | Predicted Election Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | Seats | MRP Votes | MRP Seats | |||
| CON | 24% | 121 | 23% | 133 | ||
| LAB | 35% | 412 | 23% | 180 | ||
| LIB | 13% | 72 | 12% | 49 | ||
| Reform | 15% | 5 | 25% | 227 | ||
| Green | 7% | 4 | 9% | 4 | ||
| SNP | 3% | 9 | 3% | 30 | ||
| Plaid | 1% | 4 | 1% | 4 | ||
| MIN | 3% | 5 | 4% | 5 | ||
Our prediction is for Reform to be the largest party with 227 seats, and Labour second with 180 seats.
The most likely political outcome would be a Reform-Conservative coalition with Nigel Farage as Prime Minister and a parliamentary majority of 70 seats. An anti-Reform three-way coalition of Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats (with an overall majority of 74 seats) is theoretically possible, as well as other combinations.
Map: Predicted winners by seat
The poll also asked voters which political leader they trust most to represent the UK effectively on the international stage.
| Response | All Voters | CON voters | LAB voters | Reform voters | LIB voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sir Kier Starmer | 16% | 5% | 47% | 2% | 22% |
| Nigel Farage | 16% | 19% | 5% | 67% | 4% |
| Kemi Badenoch | 5% | 22% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| Sir Ed Davey | 4% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 21% |
| John Swinney | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| None of the above | 33% | 35% | 24% | 17% | 28% |
| Don't know | 24% | 17% | 19% | 9% | 21% |
Most voters either don't know or don't trust any of the current options. Of those who did, the Prime Minister and Nigel Farage are equally trusted with 16pc of the population supporting each of them. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is only trusted by 5pc of the total population and by less than a quarter of the people who voted Conservative at the last election. Fewer than half of Labour voters trust Sir Keir Starmer on this issue, though most Reform supporters are confident in Farage.
Following polling errors in 2024, Electoral Calculus took part in investigations into possible causes, co-ordinated by the British Polling Council. Our findings are available here. In summary,
To incorporate these findings into our post-election polling, we have made two assumptions about those who answer "don't know" to either the turnout or voting intention questions.
Kevin Craig, founder of PLMR, who commissioned the poll said: "As the three-horse race for Number 10 continues, it is striking that the majority of the public either don't know which of the UK's Party leaders they can trust, or don't trust anyone to represent the UK on the international stage.
"This speaks to a wider crisis of political confidence that the Prime Minister must grapple with in order to remain in Government in four years' time. While Sir Keir Starmer continues to perform well abroad and project stability on the global stage, these numbers show that success overseas doesn't automatically translate to trust at home.
"The Prime Minister must now focus on getting his message across to voters in the UK, and instilling confidence in his domestic economic agenda, as this continues to be essential for unlocking voter support."
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said "British politics is experiencing an unprecedented three-way race. There are now three major parties, but none of them are popular enough to win an outright majority. The situation is extremely fluid, and small movements in popular support will make big changes to the parliamentary arithmetic. Reform are ahead at the moment, but it is still very close overall."
Find Out Now polled 5,180 GB adults online between 21-28 March 2025. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Data tables are available here, including full list of seats.
PLMR is an award-winning integrated communications agency founded in 2006, ranked in the Top 50 PR Firms in the UK by PR Week. Our purpose is to make a positive and sustainable difference for our clients, our people and society. Our services include PR, strategic communications, corporate communications, crisis communications and reputation management, public affairs, film and digital, social media, design, media training and more. We are proud to work with organisations across a range of sectors such as technology, health and social care, education and training, energy and sustainability, the built environment and the third sector.
Electoral Calculus is a pollster and political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. Its pre-poll prediction for the 2019 general election was the most accurate published forecast. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Find Out Now is a polling and market research panel with 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, with over 100,000 daily responses allowing the delivery of same-day nationally representative sampling.
Find Out Now are members of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society, and abide by their rules.
Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, local elections and the 2019 European elections.