In a dynamic political environment, the Conservatives have lost support as the party continues to be divided over Brexit and Theresa May has sought an extension from the EU. The Conservatives are predicted to be three seats short of a majority if there were a fresh general election. Although they gain five seats on the previous general election, they would still have to rely on DUP to form a government.
| Party | 2017 Votes | 2017 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 43.5% | 318 | 37.2% | 11 | 6 | +5 | 323 |
| LAB | 41.0% | 262 | 33.4% | 0 | 18 | -18 | 244 |
| LIB | 7.6% | 12 | 9.5% | 8 | 0 | +8 | 20 |
| UKIP | 1.9% | 0 | 6.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 1.7% | 1 | 4.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| SNP | 3.1% | 35 | 3.3% | 6 | 0 | +6 | 41 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.5% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| Minor | 0.7% | 0 | 5.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
Prediction based on four opinion polls from 7 Mar 2019 to 15 Mar 2019, sampling 5,867 people. Pollsters: Kantar Public, Opinium, YouGov, Survation.
Surprisingly, the situation for the Conservatives becomes slightly worse if the Independent Group (TIG) forms a political party and fields candidates. In this case, the Conservatives would be 25 seats short of a majority and parliament would be badly hung. It would not be easy for any grouping to get a majority.
| Party | 2017 Votes | 2017 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 43.5% | 318 | 35.2% | 301 |
| LAB | 41.0% | 262 | 33.9% | 258 |
| LIB | 7.6% | 12 | 8.2% | 20 |
| UKIP | 1.9% | 0 | 6.7% | 0 |
| Green | 1.7% | 1 | 3.9% | 1 |
| SNP | 3.1% | 35 | 3.1% | 44 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.5% | 3 |
| TIG | 0.0% | 0 | 5.4% | 5 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 18 |
Prediction based on three opinion polls from 4 Mar 2019 to 17 Mar 2019, sampling 5,540 people. Pollsters: ComRes, Opinium, BMG.
This prediction is based on the hypothesis that the Labour party splits into two. The original official Labour party ('LAB') and the new breakaway party (called 'TIG' for short) are shown separately. The model is based in each seat on a random simulation of Labour votes between the old and new parties, and it is not yet possible to give a definite seat-by-seat prediction or show changed seats.
Some notable poll results on public opinion about party leaders and Brexit:
| Question | First Option | Second Option | Don't Know | Pollster |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Is Theresa May doing well or badly as PM? | 26pc Well | 66pc Badly | 8pc | YouGov 14-15 Mar |
| Has Theresa May handled Brexit well or badly? | 22pc Well | 71pc Badly | 8pc | YouGov 14-15 Mar |
| Who would be the best Prime Minister? | 29pc Theresa May | 18pc Jeremy Corbyn | 45pc Neither | Opinium 12-15 Mar |
| Do you trust MPs to do the right thing by the country over Brexit? | 11pc Agree | 68pc Disagree | 22pc | ComRes 15-17 Mar |
| If the proposed deal is rejected by MPs, what should happen next? | 42pc Leave with No Deal | 44pc Delay Brexit | 14pc | You Gov 14-15 Mar, Opinium 12-15 Mar |
Note that Martin Baxter mis-spoke on the podcast and confused the first two rows. But Theresa May is not well appreciated either as a Prime Minister or for her handling of Brexit.
The Brexit outcomes are narrowing to three possibilities:
The Conservative party is split between the first two options, and the EU appears to favour the third option if their deal isn't agreed. Intriguingly, Brexiteers fear the proposed deal more than they fear delay. Conversely, the Remainer MPs fear No Deal more than they dislike delay. The net result could be a delay of at least a year with the requirement to conduct another referendum.
We can infer the probabilities of these outcomes from the Betfair Exchange betting market, which has two-way prices. These currently are:
| Outcome / event | Probability |
|---|---|
| No deal Brexit in March | 20% |
| Second EU referendum in 2019 | 27% |
| Deal passes by March | 32% |
| New General Election in 2019 | 42% |
| Brexit happens by Dec 2021 | 78% |
| Brexit delayed beyond March | 81% |
No Deal is the least likeliest option, but still has a one-in-five chance of happening. Another referendum has a one-in-four chance, and the deal itself has a one-in-three chance of being approved before the end of March.
