The Conservatives have continued to gain ground under Boris Johnson, with the new Brexit deal also helping them to gain support.
| Party | 2017 Votes | 2017 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 43.5% | 318 | 35.5% | 366 |
| LAB | 41.0% | 262 | 25.0% | 183 |
| LIB | 7.6% | 12 | 18.2% | 31 |
| Brexit | 0.0% | 0 | 11.6% | 0 |
| Green | 1.7% | 1 | 4.0% | 1 |
| SNP | 3.1% | 35 | 3.2% | 48 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.7% | 3 |
| UKIP | 1.9% | 0 | 0.8% | 0 |
| Other | 0.7% | 0 | 1.0% | 0 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 18 |
Prediction based on a poll-of-polls, using six polls (Opinium, ComRes, Panelbase, Survation, Deltapoll, YouGov) from 15-Oct-2019 to 21-Oct-2019, sampling 9,790 people.
This has the Conservatives around 10pc ahead of Labour with a predicted majority of 82 seats.
Along with polling uncertainty, two factors could change this result significantly. If there is strong 'ABC' (anyone but the Conservatives) tactical voting, then the result could be much closer and the Conservative majority could be wiped out. On the other hand, if there were a pre-election pact between the Conservatives and the Brexit party then the Conservative/Brexit alliance could have a majority of 200 seats or more.
There has been some polling on public attitudes to the new Brexit deal.
Asked whether they support or oppose the new Brexit deal (or think MPs should support or oppose it), the public shows mild to moderate support for the new deal, albeit with a considerable number of undecideds.
| Support | Oppose | Don't Know |
|---|---|---|
| 41pc | 31pc | 28pc |
Source: Average of all four polls (Survation, Panelbase, ComRes, YouGov)
Asked whether they support or oppose having a new referendum offering a choice between the new Brexit deal and Remain, the public has a slight bias against, but it is fairly close.
| Referendum | No Referendum | Don't Know |
|---|---|---|
| 42pc | 45pc | 13pc |
Source: Average of three polls (Survation, ComRes, YouGov)
Assuming there would be a referendum offering people the choice between the new Brexit deal and Remain, how would they vote. We only have data from two pollsters, which suggests that it is fairly close, but more people who have made up their minds would choose to vote for the deal.
| Leave with Deal | Remain | Don't Know |
|---|---|---|
| 43pc | 37pc | 20pc |
Source: Average of two polls (Survation, ComRes)
The polls used were:
Following the new Brexit deal and the parliamentary deadlock, the chance of an extension and a new election have increased considerably.
| Event | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| Brexit by June 2020 | 76pc |
| General election before Brexit | 73pc |
| General election in 2019 | 45pc |
| Deal to pass in 2019 | 29pc |
| Article 50 Revoked | 21pc |
| No Deal exit in 2019 | 4pc |
| Brexit by 31-Oct-2019 | 3pc |
Source: Betfair Exchange (prices as at 23 October 2019, 16:50).