New Seat Details - Weald of Kent

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Weald of Kent been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	34,607	67.1%
LAB	9,970	19.3%
LIB	4,230	8.2%
UKIP	1,567	3.0%
Green	942	1.8%
OTH	258	0.5%
CON Majority	24,637	47.8%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Weald of Kent: Map

List of old seats forming part of Weald of Kent

Old seat: Ashford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ashford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ashford				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Ashford	Aylesford Green	2,341	Ashford	641	738	61	34	22	0	0	0	1,496
Ashford	Beaver	3,817	Ashford	1,258	1,403	152	159	97	0	0	0	3,069
Ashford	Biddenden	1,977	Weald of Kent	1,023	250	35	28	38	0	0	0	1,374
Ashford	Bockhanger	1,873	Ashford	725	393	53	28	18	0	0	0	1,217
Ashford	Boughton Aluph and Eastwell	2,262	Ashford	1,122	450	124	39	28	0	0	0	1,763
Ashford	Bybrook	1,891	Ashford	720	509	51	32	20	0	0	0	1,332
Ashford	Charing	2,008	Ashford	790	246	127	60	15	0	0	0	1,238
Ashford	Downs North	1,927	Ashford	907	289	35	25	39	0	0	0	1,295
Ashford	Downs West	1,932	Ashford	945	252	45	25	40	0	0	0	1,307
Ashford	Godinton	4,641	Ashford	1,853	969	243	171	102	0	0	0	3,338
Ashford	Great Chart with Singleton North	2,533	Ashford	1,185	551	87	109	27	0	0	0	1,959
Ashford	Highfield	1,841	Ashford	860	340	69	35	52	0	0	0	1,356
Ashford	Isle of Oxney	2,105	Ashford	922	292	42	65	40	0	0	0	1,361
Ashford	Kennington	1,799	Ashford	732	234	104	60	17	0	0	0	1,147
Ashford	Little Burton Farm	2,131	Ashford	966	470	134	81	23	0	0	0	1,674
Ashford	Norman	1,840	Ashford	797	660	61	37	25	0	0	0	1,580
Ashford	North Willesborough	3,742	Ashford	1,316	885	345	64	96	0	0	0	2,706
Ashford	Park Farm North	2,445	Ashford	1,203	510	88	99	26	0	0	0	1,926
Ashford	Park Farm South	1,932	Ashford	1,051	492	50	34	17	0	0	0	1,644
Ashford	Rolvenden and Tenterden West	1,969	Weald of Kent	964	209	31	25	15	0	0	0	1,244
Ashford	Singleton South	2,267	Ashford	950	508	81	90	23	0	0	0	1,652
Ashford	South Willesborough	2,360	Ashford	972	719	102	114	73	0	0	0	1,980
Ashford	St Michaels	1,832	Weald of Kent	904	237	53	27	39	0	0	0	1,260
Ashford	Stanhope	1,900	Ashford	666	955	72	86	51	0	0	0	1,830
Ashford	Stour	3,599	Ashford	1,522	994	129	64	90	0	0	0	2,799
Ashford	Tenterden North	1,744	Weald of Kent	793	238	113	29	18	0	0	0	1,191
Ashford	Tenterden South	1,898	Weald of Kent	872	270	45	60	18	0	0	0	1,265
Ashford	Victoria	3,521	Ashford	1,263	1,331	148	162	105	0	0	0	3,009
Ashford	Washford	2,338	Ashford	1,097	603	74	46	25	0	0	0	1,845
Ashford	Weald Central	3,996	Weald of Kent	1,810	499	79	124	32	0	0	0	2,544
Ashford	Weald East	2,195	Ashford	950	238	39	26	34	0	0	0	1,287
Ashford	Weald North	1,891	Weald of Kent	899	237	38	56	35	0	0	0	1,265
Ashford	Weald South	4,177	Ashford	1,926	589	89	58	80	0	0	0	2,742
Ashford	Wye	1,803	Ashford	713	284	100	68	22	0	0	0	1,187
	Total	82,527		35,317	17,844	3,099	2,220	1,402	0	0	0	59,882

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ashford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Faversham and Kent Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Faversham and Kent Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Faversham and Kent Mid				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Maidstone	Bearsted	6,367	Maidstone	3,126	744	306	157	106	0	0	0	4,439
Maidstone	Boughton Monchelsea and Chart Sutton	1,925	Weald of Kent	1,024	276	64	29	26	0	0	0	1,419
Maidstone	Boxley	6,162	Maidstone	3,061	866	401	173	72	0	0	0	4,573
Maidstone	Detling and Thurnham	2,265	Maidstone	1,142	256	165	59	25	0	0	0	1,647
Maidstone	Downswood and Otham	1,909	Maidstone	975	341	90	71	44	0	0	0	1,521
Maidstone	Harrietsham and Lenham	4,418	Weald of Kent	1,912	645	181	143	53	0	0	0	2,934
Maidstone	Headcorn	3,778	Weald of Kent	1,926	503	119	52	117	0	0	0	2,717
Maidstone	Leeds	1,770	Weald of Kent	936	222	100	48	20	0	0	0	1,326
Maidstone	North Downs	1,834	Weald of Kent	1,011	215	44	22	50	0	0	0	1,342
Maidstone	Park Wood	4,039	Maidstone	1,664	1,198	280	142	56	0	0	0	3,340
Maidstone	Shepway North	5,770	Maidstone	2,607	1,505	409	199	148	0	0	0	4,868
Maidstone	Shepway South	4,019	Maidstone	1,429	1,491	139	71	54	0	0	0	3,184
Maidstone	Sutton Valence and Langley	2,004	Weald of Kent	1,085	256	115	28	52	0	0	0	1,536
Swale	Abbey	3,835	Canterbury and Faversham	1,468	984	198	107	132	0	0	0	2,889
Swale	Boughton and Courtenay	4,277	Canterbury and Faversham	1,997	681	134	111	117	0	0	0	3,040
Swale	East Downs	2,128	Canterbury and Faversham	1,069	297	52	25	54	0	0	0	1,497
Swale	Priory	1,978	Canterbury and Faversham	752	481	81	32	52	0	0	0	1,398
Swale	St Ann's	3,906	Canterbury and Faversham	1,515	975	191	113	127	0	0	0	2,921
Swale	Watling	4,263	Canterbury and Faversham	1,693	1,041	179	119	125	0	0	0	3,157
	Total	66,647		30,392	12,977	3,248	1,701	1,430	0	0	0	49,748

The full details of these calculations are given on the Faversham and Kent Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Maidstone and The Weald

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Maidstone and The Weald, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Maidstone and The Weald				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Maidstone	Allington	5,356	Maidstone	1,965	641	783	126	34	0	0	7	3,556
Maidstone	Barming	1,880	Maidstone	832	225	112	23	12	0	0	18	1,222
Maidstone	Bridge	3,965	Maidstone	1,661	699	543	53	63	0	0	6	3,025
Maidstone	Coxheath and Hunton	5,456	Weald of Kent	2,241	648	695	123	58	0	0	14	3,779
Maidstone	East	5,839	Maidstone	2,270	1,005	888	149	94	0	0	15	4,421
Maidstone	Fant	5,972	Maidstone	2,421	1,556	650	176	115	0	0	11	4,929
Maidstone	Heath	4,037	Maidstone	1,600	801	594	54	61	0	0	5	3,115
Maidstone	High Street	5,715	Maidstone	2,361	1,526	830	172	113	0	0	22	5,024
Maidstone	Loose	1,976	Weald of Kent	729	195	237	38	11	0	0	4	1,214
Maidstone	Marden and Yalding	5,618	Weald of Kent	2,702	724	422	127	63	0	0	11	4,049
Maidstone	North	5,564	Maidstone	2,558	1,151	912	167	111	0	0	10	4,909
Maidstone	South	6,464	Maidstone	2,372	821	847	144	54	0	0	7	4,245
Maidstone	Staplehurst	4,330	Weald of Kent	1,967	537	389	99	51	0	0	24	3,067
Tunbridge Wells	Benenden and Cranbrook	5,044	Weald of Kent	2,647	728	474	125	38	0	0	6	4,018
Tunbridge Wells	Frittenden and Sissinghurst	1,571	Weald of Kent	810	174	79	38	8	0	0	13	1,122
	Total	68,787		29,136	11,431	8,455	1,614	886	0	0	173	51,695

The full details of these calculations are given on the Maidstone and The Weald seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tunbridge Wells

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tunbridge Wells, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tunbridge Wells				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Tunbridge Wells	Brenchley and Horsmonden	3,852	Weald of Kent	1,854	583	154	70	39	0	0	46	2,746
Tunbridge Wells	Broadwater	2,902	Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough	1,276	686	179	69	45	0	0	40	2,295
Tunbridge Wells	Capel	1,719	Tonbridge	768	262	191	18	19	0	0	17	1,275
Tunbridge Wells	Culverden	4,994	Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough	2,299	1,135	450	117	233	0	0	53	4,287
Tunbridge Wells	Goudhurst and Lamberhurst	3,340	Weald of Kent	1,781	484	177	62	37	0	0	37	2,578
Tunbridge Wells	Hawkhurst and Sandhurst	4,402	Weald of Kent	2,159	705	256	90	54	0	0	56	3,320
Tunbridge Wells	Paddock Wood East	2,913	Weald of Kent	1,381	540	178	65	38	0	0	26	2,228
Tunbridge Wells	Paddock Wood West	2,755	Weald of Kent	1,177	595	152	59	32	0	0	21	2,036
Tunbridge Wells	Pantiles and St Mark's	4,745	Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough	2,206	768	348	91	188	0	0	41	3,642
Tunbridge Wells	Park	5,054	Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough	2,194	961	434	101	74	0	0	46	3,810
Tunbridge Wells	Pembury	4,268	Tonbridge	1,980	755	261	90	51	0	0	40	3,177
Tunbridge Wells	Rusthall	3,371	Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough	1,191	884	293	74	145	0	0	33	2,620
Tunbridge Wells	Sherwood	4,391	Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough	1,884	1,216	297	106	64	0	0	45	3,612
Tunbridge Wells	Southborough and High Brooms	4,981	Tonbridge	1,802	1,604	335	114	66	0	0	43	3,964
Tunbridge Wells	Southborough North	3,051	Tonbridge	1,414	533	206	60	36	0	0	34	2,283
Tunbridge Wells	Speldhurst and Bidborough	4,463	Tonbridge	2,208	532	250	73	45	0	0	32	3,140
Tunbridge Wells	St James'	3,753	Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough	1,438	1,032	591	98	69	0	0	45	3,273
Tunbridge Wells	St John's	4,811	Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough	1,842	1,115	603	106	205	0	0	47	3,918
	Total	69,765		30,854	14,390	5,355	1,463	1,440	0	0	702	54,204

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tunbridge Wells seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Weald of Kent

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Weald of Kent
Ashford	Biddenden	2,006	Ashford	1,023	250	35	28	38	0	0	0	1,374
Ashford	Rolvenden and Tenterden West	1,816	Ashford	964	209	31	25	15	0	0	0	1,244
Ashford	St Michaels	1,839	Ashford	904	237	53	27	39	0	0	0	1,260
Ashford	Tenterden North	1,738	Ashford	793	238	113	29	18	0	0	0	1,191
Ashford	Tenterden South	1,847	Ashford	872	270	45	60	18	0	0	0	1,265
Ashford	Weald Central	3,714	Ashford	1,810	499	79	124	32	0	0	0	2,544
Ashford	Weald North	1,845	Ashford	899	237	38	56	35	0	0	0	1,265
Maidstone	Boughton Monchelsea and Chart Sutton	2,168	Faversham and Kent Mid	1,024	276	64	29	26	0	0	0	1,419
Maidstone	Coxheath and Hunton	5,507	Maidstone and The Weald	2,241	648	695	123	58	0	0	14	3,779
Maidstone	Harrietsham and Lenham	4,484	Faversham and Kent Mid	1,912	645	181	143	53	0	0	0	2,934
Maidstone	Headcorn	4,151	Faversham and Kent Mid	1,926	503	119	52	117	0	0	0	2,717
Maidstone	Leeds	2,026	Faversham and Kent Mid	936	222	100	48	20	0	0	0	1,326
Maidstone	Loose	1,770	Maidstone and The Weald	729	195	237	38	11	0	0	4	1,214
Maidstone	Marden and Yalding	5,900	Maidstone and The Weald	2,702	724	422	127	63	0	0	11	4,049
Maidstone	North Downs	2,050	Faversham and Kent Mid	1,011	215	44	22	50	0	0	0	1,342
Maidstone	Staplehurst	4,469	Maidstone and The Weald	1,967	537	389	99	51	0	0	24	3,067
Maidstone	Sutton Valence and Langley	2,345	Faversham and Kent Mid	1,085	256	115	28	52	0	0	0	1,536
Tunbridge Wells	Benenden and Cranbrook	5,854	Maidstone and The Weald	2,647	728	474	125	38	0	0	6	4,018
Tunbridge Wells	Brenchley and Horsmonden	3,805	Tunbridge Wells	1,854	583	154	70	39	0	0	46	2,746
Tunbridge Wells	Frittenden and Sissinghurst	1,636	Maidstone and The Weald	810	174	79	38	8	0	0	13	1,122
Tunbridge Wells	Goudhurst and Lamberhurst	3,574	Tunbridge Wells	1,781	484	177	62	37	0	0	37	2,578
Tunbridge Wells	Hawkhurst and Sandhurst	4,603	Tunbridge Wells	2,159	705	256	90	54	0	0	56	3,320
Tunbridge Wells	Paddock Wood East	3,088	Tunbridge Wells	1,381	540	178	65	38	0	0	26	2,228
Tunbridge Wells	Paddock Wood West	2,823	Tunbridge Wells	1,177	595	152	59	32	0	0	21	2,036
	Total	75,058		34,607	9,970	4,230	1,567	942	0	0	258	51,574

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Weald of Kent. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Unknown (new seat) (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	75,058
Turnout:	68.7%

Weald of Kent: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Weald of Kent: Overview

Introduction