Norfolk South West: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Norfolk South West: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Liz Truss  (CON)
County/Area:Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:72,980
Implied Turnout 2019:65.7%
Predicted Turnout:63.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON32,88368.6%22.6%
LAB8,79418.4%33.3%
LIB3,9828.3%4.3%
Green1,4603.0%4.2%
OTH7991.7%1.3%
Reform00.0%31.3%
MIN00.0%2.9%
CON Majority24,08950.3%2.0%
LAB Maj

The 'MIN' party here refers to James Bagge (ind).

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Chance of winning
CON
11%
LAB
50%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
39%
MIN
0%

Norfolk South West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Norfolk South West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right9° Right
National Position20° Nat7° Nat
Social Position11° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %67%56%52%
Average Age52.950.549.5
Good Education39%48%49%
Employed56%59%58%
Homeowner67%67%63%
Car owner87%84%77%
Married49%47%45%
Ethnic White96%86%83%
Christian53%50%50%
ABC1 Class47%58%56%
Gross Household Income£39,998£45,686£42,397
Deprivation56%50%52%
Average House Price£246,395£352,365£313,528

Norfolk South West ranks #38 for "Leave", #172 for "Economic Right Position", #10 for "National Position" and #18 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Norfolk South West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Norfolk South West

The new seat of Norfolk South West is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Norfolk South WestActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
BrecklandAshill1,346Norfolk MidCONLAB
BrecklandAshill896Norfolk South WestCONLAB
BrecklandBedingfeld2,427Norfolk South WestCONLAB
BrecklandForest2,210Norfolk South WestCONLAB
BrecklandGuiltcross2,518Norfolk South WestCONLAB
BrecklandHarling and Heathlands2,601Norfolk South WestCONLAB
BrecklandNar Valley2,267Norfolk South WestCONReform
BrecklandSwaffham6,400Norfolk South WestCONLAB
BrecklandThetford Boudica3,141Norfolk South WestCONLAB
BrecklandThetford Burrell3,476Norfolk South WestCONLAB
BrecklandThetford Castle3,509Norfolk South WestCONLAB
BrecklandThetford Priory3,975Norfolk South WestCONLAB
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield455Norfolk North WestCONReform
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield3,721Norfolk South WestCONReform
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenver2,033Norfolk South WestCONReform
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town2,203Norfolk South WestCONLAB
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham2,070Norfolk South WestCONLAB
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth and Outwell3,984Norfolk South WestCONReform
King's Lynn and West NorfolkFeltwell4,108Norfolk South WestCONReform
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMethwold2,042Norfolk South WestCONReform
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham2,134Norfolk South WestCONLAB
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham2,047Norfolk South WestCONReform
King's Lynn and West NorfolkTilney, Mershe Lande and Wiggenhall4,030Norfolk South WestCONReform
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph5,002Norfolk South WestCONReform
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington2,204Norfolk South WestCONReform
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey2,179Norfolk South WestCONLAB
 Total72,978 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Norfolk South West if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


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