Majority-sorted Seat List Description

The majority-sorted list of seats provides a useful view of the seats, identifying both safe seats and key battleground seats. It uses colours and shading to show both predictions and the key targets for both major parties if they are to win the next general election.

The target seats that each large party must win are shown in the colours of the first two columns. Essential seats for Labour to win have a light-red background in the first column, and essential seats for the Conservatives have a light-blue background in the second column. Keys battleground seats are those essential for both parties.

The predicted performance of the parties can be measured against their targets with the final column, which is the predicted winner of the seat. Labour needs its target seats to be coloured red, and the Conservatives need their target seats to be coloured blue. Both parties need to win over voters in the battleground seats.

Return to majority-sorted seat list.

Example with description

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
1	569	Liverpool Walton	Dan Carden	62,628	65.1	11.1	82.0	1.3	0.0	3.1	0.0	0.0	2.4	LAB	LAB
2	568	Knowsley	George Howarth	84,060	65.4	9.4	78.1	1.5	5.9	3.5	0.0	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:
244	326	Hastings and Rye	Sally-Ann Hart	80,524	67.4	51.8	38.9	4.9	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:
285	285	Crewe and Nantwich	Kieran Mullan	80,321	67.3	54.7	34.7	3.5	2.5	3.3	0.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:
326	244	Rugby	Mark Pawsey	72,340	70.2	59.5	28.4	6.2	0.0	4.7	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:
569	1	South Holland and The Deepings	John Hayes	75,990	64.7	77.3	11.5	4.9	0.0	4.5	0.0	0.0	1.9	CON	CON

In the example we see the safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, at the top of the list. It has a 'Lab Seats' score of 1 – meaning that it is the 1st strongest Labour seat in the country, and that if Labour just win it and no more, they will only have one seat in total. If the Conservatives just win Liverpool Walton, then they will have won 569 seats. That total is less than 650, because there are 82 seats which are not won by either Labour or the Conservatives — these include 48 Scottish seats won by the SNP, 18 Northern Ireland seats plus Liberal Democrats and other parties. The 'Lab Seats' score for Liverpool Walton has a light-red background colour indicating that it is a target seat that Labour must win if they are to have a majority. The predicted winner of the seat, shown in the last column, is Labour. So Labour are on target as far as this seat is concerned.

The second seat, Knowsley, is similar. It has a 'Lab Seats' score of 2 - Labour will only win 2 seats if they can just win Knowsley. It is also predicted to be a Labour seat.

Further down, Hastings and Rye has a 'Lab Seats' score of 244 (it is an essential Labour seat), but its 'Con Seats' score of 326 is just greater than 325, so the Conservatives would just have a majority if they win this seat. The seat is predicted to be a Conservative hold.

Towards the middle of the list, Crewe and Nantwich has a 'Lab Seats' score of 285 and a 'Con Seats' score of 285. That means that Labour will win 285 seats if it can just barely win it, and the Conservatives will win 285 seats if they can just barely win it. Whichever party wins this seat will be the largest party in parliament. This puts the seat firmly in the electoral battleground for the next general election as the seat is essential to both parties. This is shown by the colouring of both the 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats' columns. The seat is currently predicted to be a Conservative hold.

Further down, the seat of Rugby is critical for Labour to get a majority. If Labour can just win Rugby then they will win 326 seats and have a majority in the House of Commons.

At the bottom is the safest Conservative seat, South Holland and the Deepings. It is essential for the Conservatives, and Labour will win 569 seats if they can capture it.

Description of each column

A full description of every column display in the sorted list is given below.

Lab Seats : number of seats that Labour will win if they beat the Conservatives in this seat and every safer seat. This assumes that other smaller parties votes remain constant, so that it will count only seats which are predicted to be won by either Labour or Conservative. The first 325 seats are shown with a light-red background colour to indicate that these seats are essential to Labour if it is to win a majority. If it fails to beat the Conservatives in all of these seats, it is unlikely to have a majority.
Con Seats : number of seats that the Conservatives will win if they beat Labour in this seat and every other seat in which they are stronger. This count increases from the bottom of the list. The first 325 Conservative seats are shown with a light-blue background colour to indicate that these seats are essential to the Conservatives if they are to win a majority. Key battleground seats are those which have both a light-red 'Lab Seats' count and a light-blue 'Con Seats' count.
Seat : name of the seat, using the new constituency boundaries.
MP at 2019 : name of the MP elected for that seat at the 2019 general election. This person may not still be the current MP for that seat, and may not be the candidate for that party at the next election. For seats whose boundary has changed, the sitting MP is assumed to have been elected for the new seat which forms the largest part of the old seat (if the winning party is the same).
Electorate : number of registered voters in the seat at the general election in 2019.
Turnout% : percentage of the electorate that voted in 2019.
CON% : predicted percentage of votes cast for the Conservatives in this seat.
LAB% : predicted percentage of votes cast for Labour.
LIB% : predicted percentage of votes cast for the Liberal Democrats.
UKIP% : predicted percentage of votes cast for UKIP.
Green% : predicted percentage of votes cast for the Green Party.
NAT% : predicted percentage of votes cast for nationalist parties (SNP in Scotland, Plaid Cymru in Wales).
MIN% : predicted percentage of votes cast for minor parties (such as BNP, Respect and independent candidates).
OTH% : predicted percentage of votes cast for other parties.
2019 Win : winning party in this seat at the 2019 general election.
Pred Win : predicted winning party in this seat now.

Additional notes

Some extra points to note are:

Strictly speaking, seats are not sorted by majority but by the difference between the Labour and Conservative shares of the vote. Some apparently safe seats may in fact be Conservative-LibDem or Labour-SNP marginals.
The list resembles a one-dimensional swingometer, which does not allow the LibDem or nationalist parties votes to change. So even if Labour does very well against the Conservatives, it will not win any extra LibDem or Nat seats.
The 'MP at 2019' is neither neccessarily the sitting MP nor that party's candidate at the next election.

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