The final polls of the 2010 campaign are listed here
Pollster | Sample dates | Sample size | CON% | LAB% | LIB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ELECTION 2005 | 5 May 2005 | 33.2 | 36.2 | 22.6 | |
News of the World/Ipsos-MORI | 23 Apr 10 - 23 Apr 10 | 1,245 | 36 | 30 | 23 |
The Guardian/ICM | 3 May 10 - 4 May 10 | 2,022 | 36 | 28 | 26 |
The Sun/YouGov | 4 May 10 - 5 May 10 | 6,483 | 35 | 28 | 28 |
The Times/Populus | 4 May 10 - 5 May 10 | 2,505 | 37 | 28 | 27 |
Political Betting/Angus Reid | 4 May 10 - 5 May 10 | 2,283 | 36 | 24 | 29 |
Daily Mail/Harris | 4 May 10 - 5 May 10 | 3,406 | 35 | 29 | 27 |
The Independent; ITV/ComRes | 4 May 10 - 5 May 10 | 1,025 | 37 | 28 | 28 |
POLL AVERAGE | 23 Apr 10 - 5 May 10 | 18,969 | 35.7 | 27.8 | 27.3 |
Sporting Index (implied) | 5 May 10 - 5 May 10 | 10,000 | 36.8 | 27.2 | 26.3 |
OVERALL AVERAGE | 23 Apr 10 - 5 May 10 | 28,969 | 36.1 | 27.6 | 26.9 |
ELECTION 2010 | 6 May 2010 | 37.0 | 29.7 | 23.6 |
The table shows that the polls were very accurate for estimating the Conservative-Labour lead. Both the pollsters and the betting markets overestimated the vote share of the Lib Dems by about 3%. Ipsos-MORI was clearly the most accurate pollster at this election, and Angus Reid was the least accurate.
Pollster | Sample dates | Sample size | CON% | LAB% | LIB% | SNP% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ELECTION 2005 | 5 May 2005 | 15.8 | 39.5 | 22.6 | 17.7 | |
STV/Ipsos-MORI | 14 Apr 10 - 17 Apr 10 | 1,005 | 14 | 36 | 20 | 26 |
The Times/Populus | 23 Apr 10 - 26 Apr 10 | 1,000 | 16 | 37 | 24 | 19 |
Scottish Mail on Sunday/TNS-BMRB | 21 Apr 10 - 27 Apr 10 | 1,029 | 13 | 44 | 16 | 23 |
The Scotsman/YouGov | 3 May 10 - 3 May 10 | 1,507 | 17 | 37 | 22 | 21 |
AVERAGE | 14 Apr 10 - 3 May 10 | 4,541 | 15.2 | 38.4 | 20.6 | 22.1 |
ELECTION 2010 | 6 May 2010 | 16.7 | 42.0 | 18.9 | 19.9 |
The polls generally underestimated both Labour (particularly) and the Conservatives and over-estimated the SNP and the Liberal Democrats. Ipsos-MORI was the least successful pollster in this regard, estimating the Labour-SNP lead at 10% when it turned out to be 22%, though their last Scottish poll was taken three weeks before polling day.