UK Electoral and Political Data Services

Figure: Stoke-on-Trent Central party support in 2024 by output area

Electoral Calculus has unrivalled datasets of UK political party support and political attitudes down to a very detailed geographical level.

These datasets are uniquely useful for election candidates and campaigners, helping them to identify precise seats or target areas for their campaign.

Our datasets include the following estimates, broken down at ward-level:

• Party Support for General Elections (2024, 2019, 2017, 2015)
• Political Attitudes (Economically left/right, Socially liberal/conservative, global/national)
• 2016 EU Referendum results (Leave/Remain)

Electoral Calculus has conducted an in-depth, scientific analysis of political attitudes and voting patterns. This is available at different levels of local detail. One of these is the local council ward, in which people cast votes every four years or so for their local district or borough councillors. There are around 8,800 wards in the UK, with an average of 5,500 voters in each one. Wards are naturally sub-parts of parliamentary seats, so information gained at a ward level can be very helpful for the ultimate analysis of an entire seat, also providing valuable campaign information.

A more detailed geographical level is the "Census Output Area", which is the most granular level of census reporting. These output areas are very small, consisting of around one to three streets or a few postcodes. There are over 200,000 of them in Britain, with an average of 200 voters in each one. Output areas can be a powerful way to target messaging by post, telephone or direct canvassing.

Data is also available at Westminster seat-level, or for custom levels such as local authority or postal district.

We have combined machine-learning and big data analysis techniques together with general and local election results and a large amount of census demographic data to calculate the political attitudes of every ward and output area in Britain. The available data for each ward and output area includes:

• Political Party Support: the results of the 2024, 2019, 2017 and 2015 General Elections are not publicly available at the ward or output area level, but the Electoral Calculus Dataset has MRP-based estimates for the party support for every major party (Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Reform/Brexit/UKIP, Green, SNP/PC) and notable independent candidates in each ward and output area. Ward and output area party votes are calibrated to match census demographics and to add up correctly within each seat to the known seat total vote.
• EU Referendum Result: the result of the June 2016 EU Referendum was primarily reported at the district council level. Uniquely, the Electoral Calculus dataset has calculated the votes cast for Leave and Remain in each seat, ward and output area. Calculations are calibrated to match census demographics and to add up correctly within each district to the known district total.
• 3D Political Attitudes: Electoral Calculus has pioneered a new 3D Political Map of Britain which measures British political attitudes on a three-dimensional chart. Moving beyond the simplistic left-right spectrum, it adds two new dimensions of internationalism vs nationalism and social liberalism vs conservatism which captures much better the paradigms that define our current politics. Estimates of the 3D Political position and 3D tribe of each ward and output area have been calculated from national survey data, other ward political data and census demographics. (This feature is not available in Northern Ireland.)
• Census Demographics: Our datasets also include 2021 Census data (2011 for Scotland) by ward and output area for 11 key Census questions, which are the most relevant for determining political attitudes. These are: Occupation Type, Age, Social Grade, Ethnicity, Religon, Household Income, Deprivation, Health Status, Education Status, House Prices and Marital Status. As this information is freely provided by the ONS, we include ward and output area census data free-of-charge within our dataset.

How to Order

These ward and output area level political data are available exclusively from Electoral Calculus. Data can be requested by individual ward, district, constituency, region, or for the whole of Britain. Data can be given at the ward level only or at both the ward and output area (OA) levels. Pricing is per ward (excluding VAT).

If you are interested in purchasing our dataset or would like a quote for your specific project, don't hesitate to get in touch.