General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour majority 294

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	44.7%	376	22.9%	30	85	211
LAB	33.0%	197	43.4%	351	472	545
LIB	11.8%	8	9.6%	19	50	61
Reform	2.1%	0	12.3%	0	0	21
Green	2.8%	1	6.0%	0	2	4
SNP	4.0%	48	3.1%	6	19	39
PlaidC	0.5%	2	0.6%	1	4	4
Other	1.1%	0	2.1%	0	0	2
DUP		8			8
SF		7			7
SDLP		2			2
Alliance		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 03 Apr 2024 to 26 Apr 2024, sampling 18,197 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority

98%

Lab minority

Probability of being the largest party

Labour

100%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on April 2024

Posted 1 May 2024

Political opinion held fairly steady in April with no major changes for any party. Labour continues to have a lead of about 20pc over the Conservatives, which would guarantee them a large majority. Reform are ahead of the Liberal Democrats in vote share terms, but are not expected to win any seats. In Scotland, Labour and the SNP are roughly level, which would cause the SNP to lose over half of their current seats.