LOCAL INSIGHT

Live Seat Data Maps

Ideal for local parties, candidates, and campaigners, our new Live Seat Data Maps deliver live maps and data with predicted election results, vote shares and swings across UK constituencies.

Dive into detailed, seat-level data to sharpen your strategy and help to campaign smarter.

Find out more

COMMENTARY

Commentary October 2025

Labour can either change for the less bad or for the worse.

Richard Rose says that given the hole that Labour is now in, the best outcome that poll evidence supports is a change for the less bad.

POLL

Fiscal Policy Poll September 2025

Our new poll with Find Out Now for the Property Chronicle shows the public keen to balance the budget with spending cuts, but unsure what to cut specifically.

SNAP POLL

Angela Rayner snap poll

A small snap poll for Sky News shows half the public think Angela Rayner should resign, and one in six thinks she should stay. She resigned the following day.

For tables, click here.

COMMENTARY

Commentary August 2025

Labour is a broken-back camel before 'Your Party' is born

Richard Rose says that Keir Starmer was in trouble even before Corbyn's new party appeared.

ELEPHANT WELFARE

Elephant Welfare Poll

Our new poll on behalf of Save the Asian Elephants looks at animal welfare abroad. The public is supportive of an existing act which the government is being slow to implement.

COMMENTARY

Commentary July 2025

U-Turns win MPs' Backing but Don't Save their Seats

Richard Rose says that Keir Starmer has to do more than tweak his welfare plans to regain popularity.

PSEPHOLOGY

Voter Transition from 2024 to May 2025

Our ever-popular voter migration graphic shows visually the extent of movement between parties since the last general election.

Labour have lost support and Reform have gained it, but there are few direct Labour/Reform defections. See the full details and why everything is still in play.

PSEPHOLOGY

Why People vote for Reform

Unique polling analysis by Electoral Calculus looks at why people vote for Reform.

Reform voters have been put off the two big parties by their failure on the issues that matter to the public, and by the parties' focus on things the public don't like.

ANALYSIS

Can Reform Win?

With both major parties doing badly, there is a unique opportunity for Reform UK to try to overtake them. But how many votes do Reform actually need to win at Westminster?

POLL ERROR

Polling errors in 2024

An analysis of polls for the 2024 election looks at possible causes of the polling error, and identifies a possible combination of two factors as potentially interesting.

POLLING

A Voter's Guide to MRP

Our helpful introduction to MRP polling, how it works, and whether Labour will really win nearly 500 seats.

POLLING ANALYSIS

Low Cost MRP Regression

Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.

PSEPHOLOGY

Tactical Voting Analysis

Our major new poll with Find Out Now shows that anti-Reform tactical voting could cost Reform around 60 seats, with one-third of Labour voters prepared to vote Conservative to keep Farage out.

POLL

Public cool on Digital ID

Our quick poll with Find Out Now for GB News shows the public more opposed than supportive of digital ID, with younger voters particularly opposed.

POLL

Public says Starmer should Step Down

Our quick poll with Find Out Now for GB News shows Starmer's support sinking with the public.

COMMENTARY

Commentary September 2025

The Liberal Democrats are stolidly standing pat.

Richard Rose says that the traditional third party of British politics is the least affected by the big changes in the political outlook.

MENTAL HEALTH

Mental Health Poll

A poll with Find Out Now for the Daily Telegraph looks at public attitudes to mental health. Compassion is mixed with a feeling that mental health conditions can be exaggerated.

MRP POLL

MRP Poll June 2025

Our new MRP poll for PLMR shows Reform on course for an outright majority for the first time.

One year after Labour's landslide victory, the political situation has changed remarkably.

POLL

Labour Defector Poll June 2025

Our exclusive new poll with Find Out Now asks voters leaving Labour for their reasons in their own words.

Voters feel let down that Labour are "not Labour enough" and are just "Tories with Red Ties".

PSEPHOLOGY

Voter Migration from 2019 to 2024

See graphically how voters are moving between the parties, or not voting at all.

LIVE UPDATES

Recent national opinion polls

Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.

POLITICAL MAPS

Data Map

Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.

All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.

HISTORICAL DATA

A unique electoral data archive from 1955

Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.