General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative short 3 of majority

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 37.8%331 35.4%323
LAB 31.2%232 29.9%237
LIB 8.1%8 7.4%8
UKIP 12.9%1 16.6%3
Green 3.8%1 4.2%1
SNP 4.9%56 4.9%56
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%4
Minor 0.8%0 1.0%0
N.Ire 18 18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Jun 2016 to 26 Jun 2016, sampling 9,348 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
47%
Con/Nat coalition
26%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
9%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
7%
Lab/Nat coalition
5%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
2%
Labour majority
2%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)