Electoral Calculus

Electoral Calculus: General Election Prediction

Electoral Calculus predicts the next British General Election result using scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography.

If there were a General Election tomorrow, what would happen?

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 160

Party	2005 Votes	2005 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	33.24%	208	44.63%	405
LAB	36.21%	346	26.34%	172
LIB	22.65%	67	17.02%	29

Prediction based on opinion polls from 4 Jul 08 to 20 Jul 08, sampling 6,378 people.

These pages last updated Sun 27 Jul 2008 16:36.

This website explains where these predictions come from, and shows you how you can make your own predictions at any time. There are also detailed predictions of every seat, including a list of target vulnerable seats, and a complete nationwide list of seat predictions.

New Boundaries All predictions on the site are now based on new constituency boundaries which were finalised in July 2006. These boundary changes take approximately 10 seats away from Labour and gives them to the Conservatives. The House of Commons will have 650 seats, so 326 seats are required for a majority. We can help you find your new seat.

Also freely available are data files containing the seat-by-seat results of the last five elections.