User-defined Poll

This page allows you to make your own predictions both for the entire country and for any particular Westminster constituency in England, Scotland and Wales. All you need is your own estimate (or guess) of national opinion support for the main parties.

There is also a Regional Predictor for non-uniform swings and a separate predictors for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Make Your Prediction

To make your prediction, enter the national (GB) support levels for the main parties. (The actual election results are shown for reference.)

Advanced options: you can also enter party support figures for Scotland, including the SNP; as well as tactical fractions (usually between 0% and 50%).

 CONLABLIBReformGreenUKIPSNP
2024 Votes24.4%34.7%12.6%14.7%6.9%0.0% 
Predicted
GB support 		% % % % % %  
Tactical
Fraction 		% % % % % %  
Scotland
GE Votes		12.7%35.3%9.7%6.9%3.8%0.0%30.0%
Scotland
Support 		% % % % % % %

What to display
Area/seat to display
Seat Boundaries to use
 


Notes on using the predictor

The usual display is of all the seats predicted to change hands ("All GB changed seats"). You can select other displays from the 'What to display' menu list, which includes a majority-sorted list of all GB seats, and the option to study any area or seat in detail. If studying an area or seat, then use the 'Area/seat to display' menu to choose the particular area or seat to display. A map of areas can help.

Scotland The prediction can be include a custom prediction for Scotland. Tick the box marked "Scotland prediction" and you can enter the predicted support for all eight major Scottish parties, including the SNP, Reform and the Greens. If omitted, the latest opinion polls for Scotland will be used. The Scotland-wide GE results at the last election and the latest Scottish opinion poll figures are shown for reference.

Tactical voting The "tactical fraction" of voters who will switch parties if their preferred party is unlikely to win can be entered if you tick the "Tactical voting" box. Typical values are between 0% (no tactical voting) and 100% (all likely tactical voting). More details

Boundaries Predictions can be made on the basis of the existing 2023 constituency boundaries (650 seats), or any historic election since 1955.

(Advanced use only) For historic elections it might be desired to disable the sophisticated predictive models and use the simple UNS model only. This enables matching with historic election results if the historic support figures are entered.