This page lets you make a prediction for the whole country that not only uses the national support
figures, but also allows for regional variation.
Make Your Prediction
Firstly, enter the national support figures in the first line of the table below
to set the overall national swing.
Our current national support figures are shown, but you can override them.
As you enter national support figures,
the national trend values to the right will update.
Then, area-by-area, please enter the support for each party in each area.
(Area definitions)
This allows different areas to have different swings from the national trend.
For reference, the national trend figures on the right give a helpful indication
of the expected regional support if there were no differences in swing between
areas. As a starting point, you can use the uniform national trend figures (press "Use Trend Values").
Notes and Guidance
You should try to ensure that the average of the regional support figures is approximately equal to the
national support. The algorithm will correct for any difference, but a large gap may cause accuracy problems.
You can display just the seats predicted to change hands ("All GB changed seats"), or see a
majority-sorted list of all GB seats ("All GB seats majority-sorted"), or study any area in detail.
If a area is selected, the 'Individual seat' menu list allows
you to see all the area's seats majority-sorted, or to examine a particular single constituency.
Opportunities in which this page can be used:
You may have your own intuition or data implying differences in swing between areas. In this case, enter the
national support figures from recent polling, and the "National Trend" entries will update. Then apply your swing
differences to those trends to infer regional support levels. For instance, if you think that the Conservatives will
have 5% less gain in the North East than nationally, just subtract 5% from the "National Trend" figure
for Con in "North East"
to get their regional support there.
Incorporating a Scotland or Wales poll with national polls. Just press the "Use Trend Values" button to set the
support in the English areas, then enter the results of the Scottish and/or Welsh poll as the region support levels
there. Then press "Predict Election".
Using a large-scale poll which provides regional breakdown.
The results of such a poll can be entered directly into the cells above.
Predictions can be made on the basis of the current 2023 constituency boundaries (650 seats),
or any historic election since 1955.
Areas
The areas shown are made up of official UK areas
(large map) in the following way.
Area
Counties (historic)
Scotland
All Scotland
North East
Durham, Newcastle area, Northumberland, Teesside
North West
Cheshire, Cumbria, Lancashire, Manchester boroughs, Merseyside
Yorks/Humber
North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Humber area
Wales
All Wales
West Midlands
Birmingham, Black Country, Cheshire, Coventry and Solihull, Hereford & Worcestershire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire
