| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 29.4% | 15 | 20.9% | 0 | 11 | -11 | 4 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 29 | 29.3% | 4 | 1 | +3 | 32 |
| LIB | 6.4% | 0 | 5.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 18.9% | 2 | 27.1% | 9 | 0 | +9 | 11 |
| Green | 6.3% | 0 | 7.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 3.7% | 1 | 9.2% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Derbyshire North East (prediction: LAB), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Leicester West (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 373 | Nottingham East | Nadia Whittome | 69,395 | 52.5 | 9.8 | 43.7 | 3.9 | 15.8 | 18.5 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 71 | 355 | Nottingham South | Lilian Greenwood | 64,255 | 51.2 | 6.7 | 50.5 | 1.7 | 26.5 | 4.4 | 10.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 75 | 351 | Nottingham North and Kimberley | Alex Norris | 73,768 | 47.5 | 4.6 | 51.7 | 0.6 | 29.4 | 1.8 | 12.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 76 | 350 | Leicester West | Liz Kendall | 74,102 | 47.8 | 7.3 | 49.2 | 2.2 | 26.9 | 5.2 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 109 | 317 | High Peak | Jonathan Brian Pearce | 74,385 | 66.2 | 20.9 | 40.3 | 4.4 | 20.9 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 114 | 312 | Gedling | Michael Payne | 77,006 | 63.3 | 11.3 | 46.1 | 2.8 | 27.1 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 116 | 310 | Leicester South | Shockat Adam | 70,867 | 59.0 | 13.5 | 34.9 | 3.6 | 16.1 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | MIN | LAB |
| 135 | 291 | Chesterfield | Toby Perkins | 71,654 | 58.0 | 5.5 | 50.4 | 0.9 | 33.6 | 1.2 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 136 | 290 | Rushcliffe | James William Naish | 79,160 | 72.9 | 23.9 | 36.4 | 6.9 | 19.7 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 140 | 286 | Derby North | Catherine Atkinson | 71,900 | 56.9 | 12.2 | 43.3 | 3.2 | 26.9 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 141 | 285 | Loughborough | Jeevun Sandher | 68,996 | 61.2 | 21.0 | 37.2 | 5.6 | 20.8 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 145 | 281 | Lincoln | Hamish Falconer | 72,313 | 58.3 | 6.6 | 48.8 | 1.2 | 33.0 | 1.8 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 196 | 230 | Northampton North | Lucy Rigby | 75,575 | 55.3 | 8.6 | 44.0 | 1.5 | 32.1 | 2.7 | 11.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 199 | 227 | Erewash | Adam Thompson | 71,497 | 60.2 | 6.1 | 47.1 | 0.8 | 35.5 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 224 | 202 | Broxtowe | Juliet Campbell | 71,923 | 66.5 | 6.6 | 46.8 | 1.6 | 36.9 | 1.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 238 | 188 | Bassetlaw | Jo White | 78,173 | 57.4 | 9.5 | 44.2 | 1.3 | 35.3 | 2.1 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 242 | 184 | Derby South | Baggy Shanker | 72,952 | 51.3 | 4.6 | 44.6 | 0.8 | 35.9 | 1.4 | 12.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 245 | 180 | Leicester East | Shivani Raja | 76,560 | 61.0 | 26.4 | 24.8 | 10.4 | 16.4 | 12.9 | 9.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 254 | 172 | Derbyshire South | Samantha Niblett | 73,714 | 62.0 | 21.5 | 34.2 | 4.6 | 26.2 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 259 | 167 | Corby and East Northamptonshire | Lee Barron | 78,787 | 62.9 | 23.4 | 32.7 | 4.6 | 25.3 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 267 | 159 | Northampton South | Mike Reader | 70,393 | 62.4 | 23.4 | 31.5 | 5.7 | 24.6 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 282 | 144 | Bolsover | Natalie Fleet | 77,207 | 55.0 | 5.8 | 44.2 | 0.7 | 38.2 | 1.2 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 283 | 143 | Kettering | Rosie Wrighting | 79,390 | 63.3 | 19.1 | 32.5 | 3.6 | 26.6 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 301 | 125 | Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | Neil O'Brien | 77,407 | 65.1 | 25.2 | 26.2 | 9.7 | 21.8 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 303 | 123 | Derbyshire Mid | Jonathan Peter Tom Davies | 69,281 | 68.6 | 23.6 | 30.6 | 5.7 | 26.2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 307 | 119 | Leicestershire Mid | Peter Bedford | 75,933 | 63.3 | 22.8 | 28.4 | 5.5 | 24.7 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 309 | 117 | Mansfield | Steve Yemm | 73,817 | 55.7 | 7.6 | 42.9 | 0.6 | 39.3 | 1.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 312 | 114 | Amber Valley | Linsey Farnsworth | 71,546 | 59.4 | 5.9 | 42.7 | 0.7 | 39.5 | 1.0 | 10.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 315 | 111 | Sherwood Forest | Michelle Welsh | 78,894 | 61.7 | 8.6 | 42.4 | 1.3 | 39.4 | 1.1 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 320 | 105 | Daventry | Stuart Andrew | 80,879 | 65.6 | 28.5 | 23.2 | 9.7 | 20.7 | 5.5 | 12.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 321 | 105 | Derbyshire Dales | John Michael Whitby | 73,317 | 69.9 | 25.5 | 28.4 | 8.3 | 26.1 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 324 | 102 | Wellingborough and Rushden | Gen Kitchen | 77,559 | 56.7 | 20.0 | 31.7 | 3.6 | 29.7 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 328 | 98 | Derbyshire North East | Louise Elizabeth Jones | 73,139 | 62.7 | 23.4 | 29.7 | 4.8 | 28.3 | 5.1 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 336 | 90 | Northamptonshire South | Sarah Bool | 78,233 | 68.6 | 25.1 | 25.7 | 7.0 | 25.2 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 346 | 80 | Newark | Robert Jenrick | 80,028 | 66.8 | 25.5 | 26.4 | 6.5 | 27.1 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 356 | 70 | Leicestershire North West | Amanda Hack | 77,757 | 62.5 | 23.3 | 27.4 | 4.5 | 29.9 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 359 | 67 | Leicestershire South | Alberto Costa | 78,543 | 65.4 | 23.9 | 23.5 | 9.9 | 26.4 | 6.7 | 9.5 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 370 | 56 | Melton and Syston | Edward Argar | 74,316 | 61.9 | 22.4 | 24.4 | 5.3 | 28.2 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 373 | 52 | Rutland and Stamford | Alicia Kearns | 71,711 | 67.7 | 29.2 | 21.1 | 10.4 | 25.4 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 397 | 29 | Gainsborough | Sir Edward Leigh | 75,836 | 61.6 | 24.0 | 22.4 | 8.9 | 30.2 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 400 | 26 | Sleaford and North Hykeham | Caroline Johnson | 75,807 | 64.1 | 23.8 | 23.1 | 5.6 | 31.8 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 404 | 22 | Grantham and Bourne | Gareth Davies | 73,280 | 62.9 | 24.0 | 22.6 | 5.6 | 31.8 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 415 | 11 | Louth and Horncastle | Victoria Atkins | 76,882 | 60.5 | 23.2 | 20.1 | 5.2 | 35.3 | 5.2 | 11.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 415 | 10 | Hinckley and Bosworth | Luke Evans | 76,431 | 62.5 | 35.5 | 12.5 | 10.3 | 28.3 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 421 | 5 | South Holland and The Deepings | John Hayes | 78,473 | 58.5 | 29.8 | 13.4 | 3.4 | 37.6 | 3.7 | 12.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 422 | 4 | Ashfield | Lee Anderson | 68,929 | 57.9 | 13.7 | 19.8 | 3.7 | 44.4 | 2.8 | 15.5 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
| 424 | 2 | Boston and Skegness | Richard Tice | 75,811 | 53.4 | 35.5 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 43.5 | 1.2 | 12.4 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.