North East: Sorted Seats

North East Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 20.2%1 19.7%20+23
LAB 45.4%26 30.7%018-188
LIB 5.9%0 9.6%00+00
Reform 19.9%0 30.7%160+1616
Green 6.0%0 7.8%00+00
Other 2.6%0 1.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Stockton West', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stockton West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
49307Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Mary Glindon76,42155.411.234.210.527.114.61.80.7LABLAB
63292Jarrow and Gateshead East Kate Osborne70,27252.312.234.09.034.79.10.01.0LABReform
66290Newcastle upon Tyne North Catherine McKinnell75,14664.715.937.014.919.112.10.00.9LABLAB
70286Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Chi Onwurah76,96953.713.533.910.827.010.90.04.0LABLAB
70285Easington Grahame Morris69,41149.512.732.98.038.66.40.01.5LABReform
85271Blaydon and Consett Liz Twist70,48759.915.834.99.331.77.50.00.7LABLAB
89267Durham, City of Mary Foy70,58257.614.733.415.327.38.60.00.7LABLAB
91265Tynemouth Alan Campbell73,46965.919.337.510.422.49.10.01.2LABLAB
100256Gateshead Central and Whickham Mark Ferguson69,82357.614.732.113.828.99.50.01.0LABLAB
103252South Shields Emma Lewell-Buck68,36653.913.830.09.230.614.50.02.0LABReform
103252Washington and Gateshead South Sharon Hodgson70,97252.215.631.68.636.86.30.01.1LABReform
105251Cramlington and Killingworth Emma Foody76,22859.618.934.98.829.66.70.01.1LABLAB
106249Blyth and Ashington Ian Lavery76,26353.016.932.58.035.46.50.00.7LABReform
110245Houghton and Sunderland South Bridget Phillipson78,44851.016.330.88.937.16.10.00.8LABReform
123232Sunderland Central Lewis Atkinson76,14552.517.129.111.033.48.50.00.8LABReform
126229Durham North Luke Akehurst73,23556.816.528.011.533.96.73.10.3LABReform
133222Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Andy McDonald75,12345.819.129.07.132.16.65.80.3LABReform
136219Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Alan Strickland72,22455.218.327.97.638.56.21.10.4LABReform
140215Stockton North Chris McDonald70,24253.220.730.07.434.76.50.00.7LABReform
141214Hartlepool Jonathan Brash71,43749.720.729.87.035.74.71.01.1LABReform
174181Bishop Auckland Sam Rushworth70,74557.120.426.07.539.65.90.00.6LABReform
195160Northumberland North David Smith74,13265.924.325.613.029.95.80.01.4LABReform
207149Hexham Joe Morris76,43167.832.431.49.918.17.20.01.1LABCON
208147Redcar Anna Turley70,24154.425.824.87.536.05.30.00.6LABReform
217138Darlington Lola McEvoy70,76359.927.925.47.830.18.30.00.5LABReform
26096Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Luke Myer70,32854.134.926.19.022.96.10.01.0LABCON
27482Stockton West Matt Vickers71,86867.736.025.26.626.15.60.00.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.