| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 20.2% | 1 | 16.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| LAB | 45.4% | 26 | 28.4% | 0 | 12 | -12 | 14 |
| LIB | 5.9% | 0 | 5.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 19.9% | 0 | 30.9% | 12 | 0 | +12 | 12 |
| Green | 6.0% | 0 | 10.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 2.6% | 0 | 8.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Tynemouth' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Bishop Auckland', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bishop Auckland (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Tynemouth (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 329 | Tynemouth | Alan Campbell | 73,469 | 65.9 | 6.0 | 48.9 | 1.7 | 31.8 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 31 | 320 | Newcastle upon Tyne North | Catherine McKinnell | 75,146 | 64.7 | 11.4 | 36.9 | 7.7 | 23.1 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 36 | 315 | Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | Mary Glindon | 76,421 | 55.4 | 5.2 | 42.2 | 3.0 | 29.1 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 57 | 294 | Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | Chi Onwurah | 76,969 | 53.7 | 3.5 | 45.2 | 1.2 | 35.2 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 62 | 289 | Gateshead Central and Whickham | Mark Ferguson | 69,823 | 57.6 | 3.9 | 44.2 | 2.1 | 35.5 | 3.9 | 10.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 81 | 270 | Jarrow and Gateshead East | Kate Osborne | 70,272 | 52.3 | 3.2 | 43.4 | 1.2 | 37.0 | 3.4 | 11.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 82 | 269 | Durham, City of | Mary Foy | 70,582 | 57.6 | 5.1 | 44.4 | 2.6 | 38.1 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 83 | 268 | Cramlington and Killingworth | Emma Foody | 76,228 | 59.6 | 5.6 | 44.2 | 1.3 | 38.0 | 3.2 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 84 | 267 | Blaydon and Consett | Liz Twist | 70,487 | 59.9 | 4.7 | 44.0 | 1.5 | 38.0 | 3.3 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 90 | 261 | Hexham | Joe Morris | 76,431 | 67.8 | 29.2 | 29.5 | 5.4 | 24.5 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 94 | 257 | South Shields | Emma Lewell-Buck | 68,366 | 53.9 | 3.5 | 43.7 | 1.0 | 38.9 | 4.1 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 102 | 249 | Washington and Gateshead South | Sharon Hodgson | 70,972 | 52.2 | 3.6 | 41.3 | 1.1 | 37.6 | 3.3 | 13.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 120 | 231 | Middlesbrough and Thornaby East | Andy McDonald | 75,123 | 45.8 | 4.7 | 40.5 | 1.0 | 38.3 | 3.9 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 142 | 209 | Houghton and Sunderland South | Bridget Phillipson | 78,448 | 51.0 | 4.1 | 39.7 | 1.3 | 39.6 | 2.9 | 12.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 146 | 205 | Sunderland Central | Lewis Atkinson | 76,145 | 52.5 | 4.9 | 39.9 | 1.7 | 40.4 | 3.3 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 167 | 184 | Stockton North | Chris McDonald | 70,242 | 53.2 | 5.6 | 37.8 | 1.2 | 40.9 | 2.6 | 11.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 169 | 182 | Darlington | Lola McEvoy | 70,763 | 59.9 | 23.1 | 25.5 | 4.7 | 28.7 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 187 | 163 | Stockton West | Matt Vickers | 71,868 | 67.7 | 34.0 | 22.1 | 5.0 | 26.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 194 | 157 | Blyth and Ashington | Ian Lavery | 76,263 | 53.0 | 5.8 | 39.2 | 1.4 | 44.0 | 2.8 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 203 | 148 | Durham North | Luke Akehurst | 73,235 | 56.8 | 5.6 | 38.3 | 2.1 | 44.0 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 209 | 142 | Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | Luke Myer | 70,328 | 54.1 | 28.1 | 24.1 | 4.6 | 30.2 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 232 | 119 | Northumberland North | David Smith | 74,132 | 65.9 | 21.4 | 25.3 | 8.9 | 33.2 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 235 | 116 | Hartlepool | Jonathan Brash | 71,437 | 49.7 | 5.4 | 35.7 | 1.0 | 43.7 | 2.0 | 12.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 249 | 102 | Easington | Grahame Morris | 69,411 | 49.5 | 5.0 | 37.0 | 1.4 | 46.3 | 2.8 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 259 | 92 | Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor | Alan Strickland | 72,224 | 55.2 | 8.4 | 34.6 | 2.2 | 44.9 | 2.6 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 264 | 87 | Redcar | Anna Turley | 70,241 | 54.4 | 22.4 | 22.9 | 4.7 | 33.7 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 289 | 62 | Bishop Auckland | Sam Rushworth | 70,745 | 57.1 | 20.3 | 23.8 | 5.9 | 36.9 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.