North East: Sorted Seats

North East Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	20.2%	1	17.6%	2	0	+2	3
LAB	45.4%	26	31.4%	0	17	-17	9
LIB	5.9%	0	10.0%	0	0	+0	0
Reform	19.9%	0	31.6%	15	0	+15	15
Green	6.0%	0	8.0%	0	0	+0	0
Other	2.6%	0	1.3%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Stockton West', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stockton West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Jarrow and Gateshead East (prediction: Reform).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North East seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
38	335	Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend	Mary Glindon	76,421	55.4	9.0	37.9	7.2	29.3	13.8	2.6	0.2	LAB	LAB
44	328	Jarrow and Gateshead East	Kate Osborne	70,272	52.3	10.5	36.4	6.9	37.7	8.2	0.0	0.3	LAB	Reform
48	325	Newcastle upon Tyne North	Catherine McKinnell	75,146	64.7	12.9	37.6	15.6	21.1	12.6	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
51	322	Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West	Chi Onwurah	76,969	53.7	12.1	36.3	8.1	30.4	10.3	0.0	2.9	LAB	LAB
59	313	Easington	Grahame Morris	69,411	49.5	11.7	34.5	6.8	40.5	6.0	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
61	312	Durham, City of	Mary Foy	70,582	57.6	12.2	33.9	16.5	28.0	9.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
68	305	Gateshead Central and Whickham	Mark Ferguson	69,823	57.6	11.7	32.1	14.8	31.2	9.8	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
69	303	Blaydon and Consett	Liz Twist	70,487	59.9	13.6	33.6	10.6	33.8	7.9	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
72	300	South Shields	Emma Lewell-Buck	68,366	53.9	12.3	31.9	7.2	34.1	14.2	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
88	285	Tynemouth	Alan Campbell	73,469	65.9	17.6	35.6	11.4	24.9	10.1	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
89	283	Washington and Gateshead South	Sharon Hodgson	70,972	52.2	12.9	30.5	10.3	39.0	6.8	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
90	282	Blyth and Ashington	Ian Lavery	76,263	53.0	14.2	31.4	9.6	37.3	7.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
95	278	Cramlington and Killingworth	Emma Foody	76,228	59.6	16.7	33.0	10.4	32.0	7.5	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
96	276	Houghton and Sunderland South	Bridget Phillipson	78,448	51.0	13.3	29.4	10.4	40.0	6.4	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
96	276	Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor	Alan Strickland	72,224	55.2	16.4	32.4	6.7	33.8	6.7	3.8	0.2	LAB	Reform
114	258	Sunderland Central	Lewis Atkinson	76,145	52.5	14.3	27.8	11.6	37.3	8.6	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
130	242	Durham North	Luke Akehurst	73,235	56.8	13.7	25.9	11.3	35.6	6.6	6.7	0.1	LAB	Reform
139	233	Middlesbrough and Thornaby East	Andy McDonald	75,123	45.8	15.9	26.7	6.5	34.4	5.9	10.5	0.1	LAB	Reform
145	227	Hartlepool	Jonathan Brash	71,437	49.7	17.2	27.7	8.2	39.7	4.7	2.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
145	227	Bishop Auckland	Sam Rushworth	70,745	57.1	20.1	30.5	7.2	35.1	6.7	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
149	223	Stockton North	Chris McDonald	70,242	53.2	18.5	27.8	8.5	37.9	6.9	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
153	219	Redcar	Anna Turley	70,241	54.4	21.7	30.3	7.9	34.0	5.7	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
174	199	Northumberland North	David Smith	74,132	65.9	22.9	28.5	15.5	26.8	5.8	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
179	194	Darlington	Lola McEvoy	70,763	59.9	25.2	29.4	7.2	29.2	8.8	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
191	182	Hexham	Joe Morris	76,431	67.8	33.0	32.8	11.9	14.4	7.5	0.0	0.4	LAB	CON
228	145	Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland	Luke Myer	70,328	54.1	34.3	27.2	11.7	19.6	6.6	0.0	0.5	LAB	CON
256	117	Stockton West	Matt Vickers	71,868	67.7	35.3	24.7	8.2	26.2	5.5	0.0	0.2	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.