| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 20.2% | 1 | 15.3% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| LAB | 45.4% | 26 | 21.3% | 0 | 23 | -23 | 3 |
| LIB | 5.9% | 0 | 9.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 19.9% | 0 | 35.9% | 21 | 0 | +21 | 21 |
| Green | 6.0% | 0 | 12.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 2.6% | 0 | 5.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Newcastle upon Tyne North' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Easington', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bishop Auckland (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Newcastle upon Tyne North (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | NAT % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 319 | Newcastle upon Tyne North | Catherine McKinnell | 75,146 | 64.7 | 13.0 | 28.4 | 11.8 | 20.4 | 18.3 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 67 | 318 | Tynemouth | Alan Campbell | 73,469 | 65.9 | 6.0 | 43.8 | 2.3 | 36.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 80 | 304 | Hexham | Joe Morris | 76,431 | 67.8 | 27.2 | 25.1 | 12.5 | 20.7 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 107 | 278 | Durham, City of | Mary Foy | 70,582 | 57.6 | 7.1 | 36.4 | 6.5 | 36.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 117 | 268 | Gateshead Central and Whickham | Mark Ferguson | 69,823 | 57.6 | 6.4 | 35.7 | 5.5 | 37.4 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 141 | 244 | Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | Mary Glindon | 76,421 | 55.4 | 9.4 | 24.1 | 8.1 | 29.5 | 19.3 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 155 | 230 | Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | Chi Onwurah | 76,969 | 53.7 | 12.4 | 21.6 | 7.7 | 29.0 | 19.4 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 162 | 223 | Blaydon and Consett | Liz Twist | 70,487 | 59.9 | 4.6 | 38.3 | 2.2 | 46.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 168 | 217 | Jarrow and Gateshead East | Kate Osborne | 70,272 | 52.3 | 4.0 | 36.6 | 2.1 | 45.3 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 169 | 215 | Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | Luke Myer | 70,328 | 54.1 | 30.5 | 18.9 | 9.6 | 27.8 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 182 | 203 | Cramlington and Killingworth | Emma Foody | 76,228 | 59.6 | 11.1 | 29.3 | 5.3 | 39.4 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 212 | 173 | Northumberland North | David Smith | 74,132 | 65.9 | 18.0 | 19.8 | 14.9 | 33.5 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 214 | 171 | Washington and Gateshead South | Sharon Hodgson | 70,972 | 52.2 | 4.1 | 35.2 | 1.8 | 49.0 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 231 | 154 | Middlesbrough and Thornaby East | Andy McDonald | 75,123 | 45.8 | 15.2 | 20.0 | 6.6 | 35.2 | 14.8 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 243 | 142 | Stockton North | Chris McDonald | 70,242 | 53.2 | 7.7 | 31.3 | 3.9 | 47.4 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 256 | 129 | Houghton and Sunderland South | Bridget Phillipson | 78,448 | 51.0 | 5.0 | 32.8 | 2.4 | 50.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 259 | 126 | Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor | Alan Strickland | 72,224 | 55.2 | 9.4 | 28.5 | 5.8 | 46.1 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 262 | 123 | Sunderland Central | Lewis Atkinson | 76,145 | 52.5 | 13.0 | 20.4 | 8.4 | 38.3 | 13.8 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 265 | 120 | Darlington | Lola McEvoy | 70,763 | 59.9 | 19.8 | 18.3 | 8.9 | 36.4 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 267 | 118 | South Shields | Emma Lewell-Buck | 68,366 | 53.9 | 11.7 | 17.2 | 6.7 | 35.8 | 20.5 | 0.0 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 272 | 113 | Hartlepool | Jonathan Brash | 71,437 | 49.7 | 7.7 | 29.8 | 3.7 | 49.5 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 302 | 82 | Stockton West | Matt Vickers | 71,868 | 67.7 | 44.3 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 32.3 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 316 | 69 | Redcar | Anna Turley | 70,241 | 54.4 | 17.6 | 18.1 | 9.0 | 42.1 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 325 | 60 | Durham North | Luke Akehurst | 73,235 | 56.8 | 13.5 | 17.4 | 10.6 | 41.7 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 339 | 46 | Bishop Auckland | Sam Rushworth | 70,745 | 57.1 | 15.5 | 18.9 | 9.2 | 45.1 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 340 | 45 | Blyth and Ashington | Ian Lavery | 76,263 | 53.0 | 12.0 | 20.2 | 7.1 | 46.4 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 373 | 12 | Easington | Grahame Morris | 69,411 | 49.5 | 9.8 | 18.8 | 6.3 | 52.9 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.