North East: Sorted Seats

North East Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 20.2%1 15.3%20+23
LAB 45.4%26 21.3%023-233
LIB 5.9%0 9.2%00+00
Reform 19.9%0 35.9%210+2121
Green 6.0%0 12.6%00+00
Other 2.6%0 5.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Newcastle upon Tyne North' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Easington', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bishop Auckland (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Newcastle upon Tyne North (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
66319Newcastle upon Tyne North Catherine McKinnell75,14664.713.028.411.820.418.30.08.00.0LABLAB
67318Tynemouth Alan Campbell73,46965.96.043.82.336.04.50.07.30.0LABLAB
80304Hexham Joe Morris76,43167.827.225.112.520.711.20.03.30.0LABCON
107278Durham, City of Mary Foy70,58257.67.136.46.536.48.00.05.70.0LABLAB
117268Gateshead Central and Whickham Mark Ferguson69,82357.66.435.75.537.47.80.07.10.0LABReform
141244Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Mary Glindon76,42155.49.424.18.129.519.30.09.60.0LABReform
155230Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Chi Onwurah76,96953.712.421.67.729.019.40.09.90.0LABReform
162223Blaydon and Consett Liz Twist70,48759.94.638.32.246.33.60.05.00.0LABReform
168217Jarrow and Gateshead East Kate Osborne70,27252.34.036.62.145.34.50.07.40.0LABReform
169215Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Luke Myer70,32854.130.518.99.627.89.70.03.50.0LABCON
182203Cramlington and Killingworth Emma Foody76,22859.611.129.35.339.48.70.06.20.0LABReform
212173Northumberland North David Smith74,13265.918.019.814.933.59.80.03.90.0LABReform
214171Washington and Gateshead South Sharon Hodgson70,97252.24.135.21.849.03.40.06.50.0LABReform
231154Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Andy McDonald75,12345.815.220.06.635.214.80.08.20.0LABReform
243142Stockton North Chris McDonald70,24253.27.731.33.947.45.10.04.70.0LABReform
256129Houghton and Sunderland South Bridget Phillipson78,44851.05.032.82.450.04.00.05.70.0LABReform
259126Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Alan Strickland72,22455.29.428.55.846.16.10.04.00.0LABReform
262123Sunderland Central Lewis Atkinson76,14552.513.020.48.438.313.80.06.10.0LABReform
265120Darlington Lola McEvoy70,76359.919.818.38.936.411.20.05.40.0LABReform
267118South Shields Emma Lewell-Buck68,36653.911.717.26.735.820.50.08.10.0LABReform
272113Hartlepool Jonathan Brash71,43749.77.729.83.749.54.60.04.70.0LABReform
30282Stockton West Matt Vickers71,86867.744.310.14.632.36.00.02.60.0CONCON
31669Redcar Anna Turley70,24154.417.618.19.042.18.60.04.60.0LABReform
32560Durham North Luke Akehurst73,23556.813.517.410.641.712.00.04.80.0LABReform
33946Bishop Auckland Sam Rushworth70,74557.115.518.99.245.18.40.02.90.0LABReform
34045Blyth and Ashington Ian Lavery76,26353.012.020.27.146.410.00.04.30.0LABReform
37312Easington Grahame Morris69,41149.59.818.86.352.98.60.03.70.0LABReform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.