This page shows all the seats in Northern Ireland sorted by the predicted difference between Sinn Fein and Democratic Unionist votes. The seat 'Fermanagh and South Tyrone' where the SF−DUP difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Belfast East', where the DUP−SF difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'SF Seats' and 'DUP Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 10 seats to have a majority. So Sinn Fein needs to win all the seats down to Antrim East (prediction: DUP), and the Democratic Unionists need to win all their seats up to Tyrone West (prediction: SF).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| SF Seats | DUP Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | UUP % | SDLP % | DUP % | Alliance % | Green % | SF % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | Fermanagh and South Tyrone | Pat Cullen | 77,828 | 65.6 | 39.7 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 48.6 | 0.0 | 2.3 | SF | SF |
| 2 | 11 | Belfast West | Paul Maskey | 75,346 | 52.7 | 1.2 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 52.8 | 12.7 | 7.8 | SF | SF |
| 3 | 10 | Tyrone West | Órfhlaith Begley | 74,269 | 58.8 | 6.2 | 13.3 | 15.6 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 51.9 | 0.0 | 7.8 | SF | SF |
| 4 | 9 | Newry and Armagh | Dáire Hughes | 78,244 | 58.7 | 7.0 | 14.8 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 48.5 | 0.0 | 11.1 | SF | SF |
| 5 | 8 | Ulster Mid | Cathal Mallaghan | 74,000 | 61.4 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 20.2 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 52.9 | 0.0 | 9.3 | SF | SF |
| 6 | 7 | Down South | Chris Hazzard | 76,248 | 59.3 | 3.2 | 23.0 | 16.3 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 43.5 | 0.0 | 6.1 | SF | SF |
| 6 | 6 | Foyle | Colum Eastwood | 73,496 | 52.2 | 3.8 | 40.7 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 29.9 | 0.0 | 12.1 | SDLP | SDLP |
| 7 | 6 | Belfast North | John Finucane | 74,240 | 54.5 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 29.9 | 10.5 | 2.9 | 43.6 | 0.0 | 9.5 | SF | SF |
| 7 | 5 | Down North | Alex Easton | 73,885 | 58.6 | 15.6 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 31.4 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 48.3 | 0.3 | MIN | MIN |
| 8 | 5 | Londonderry East | Gregory Campbell | 75,707 | 54.5 | 8.3 | 12.7 | 27.9 | 9.0 | 1.1 | 27.4 | 0.0 | 13.6 | DUP | DUP |
| 8 | 4 | Antrim South | Robin Swann | 77,058 | 55.7 | 38.1 | 3.7 | 20.5 | 10.6 | 1.2 | 18.7 | 0.0 | 7.2 | UUP | UUP |
| 8 | 4 | Antrim North | Jim Allister | 74,697 | 55.1 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 27.2 | 10.9 | 0.0 | 18.7 | 28.3 | 1.5 | MIN | MIN |
| 9 | 4 | Upper Bann | Carla Lockhart | 81,249 | 58.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 45.7 | 13.3 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | DUP | DUP |
| 9 | 3 | Belfast South and Mid Down | Claire Hanna | 74,749 | 58.2 | 6.2 | 49.0 | 15.8 | 20.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.1 | SDLP | SDLP |
| 10 | 3 | Antrim East | Sammy Wilson | 73,302 | 54.1 | 23.9 | 2.2 | 28.9 | 25.6 | 1.4 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 10.5 | DUP | DUP |
| 10 | 2 | Lagan Valley | Sorcha-Lucy Eastwood | 82,201 | 59.7 | 22.8 | 2.1 | 31.9 | 37.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | Alliance | Alliance |
| 11 | 2 | Strangford | Jim Shannon | 74,525 | 52.2 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 40.0 | 26.8 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 9.6 | DUP | DUP |
| 12 | 1 | Belfast East | Gavin Robinson | 72,917 | 58.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 46.6 | 40.3 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.9 | DUP | DUP |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.