North West: Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	18.8%	3	19.4%	3	0	+3	6
LAB	44.8%	66	30.4%	0	31	-31	35
LIB	7.8%	3	10.7%	0	0	+0	3
Reform	16.6%	0	26.9%	28	0	+28	28
Green	7.0%	0	9.3%	0	0	+0	0
Other	4.9%	1	3.3%	0	0	+0	1

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Chorley' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Westmorland and Lonsdale', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Westmorland and Lonsdale (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wallasey (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
1	355	Chorley	Lindsay Hoyle	74,575	45.5	8.5	48.7	9.4	16.4	14.2	0.0	2.8	LAB	LAB
2	354	Liverpool Walton	Dan Carden	69,317	53.2	8.6	46.8	8.5	24.1	11.0	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
4	352	Liverpool West Derby	Ian Byrne	69,934	54.3	9.3	46.4	9.8	21.5	11.1	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
8	348	Bootle	Peter Dowd	73,037	53.2	8.9	44.6	8.2	21.5	13.5	3.3	0.0	LAB	LAB
13	343	Knowsley	Anneliese Midgley	72,087	50.0	9.2	43.3	8.3	25.3	11.4	2.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
15	341	Liverpool Wavertree	Paula Barker	70,581	56.4	9.1	42.1	12.1	15.1	20.1	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
17	339	Liverpool Garston	Maria Eagle	69,282	60.6	11.1	44.0	13.3	17.8	11.0	0.0	2.8	LAB	LAB
19	337	Liverpool Riverside	Kim Johnson	71,380	45.4	8.4	40.1	11.0	18.8	20.3	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
23	333	Manchester Withington	Jeff Smith	70,549	59.2	8.8	38.6	14.8	9.6	23.3	4.7	0.1	LAB	LAB
25	331	Widnes and Halewood	Derek Twigg	71,233	53.5	12.2	40.5	8.1	26.9	9.0	3.3	0.0	LAB	LAB
30	326	Wallasey	Angela Eagle	74,082	57.7	13.3	39.8	8.4	23.6	12.1	2.5	0.3	LAB	LAB
36	320	Birkenhead	Alison McGovern	78,091	55.2	10.9	36.3	9.8	22.0	20.2	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
40	316	St Helens South and Whiston	Marie Rimmer	71,569	53.1	12.3	36.9	11.5	26.5	9.7	0.0	3.1	LAB	LAB
43	313	Ellesmere Port and Bromborough	Justin Madders	70,799	59.3	15.4	39.7	9.7	26.0	8.4	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
48	308	Salford	Rebecca Long-Bailey	83,633	47.5	11.5	34.5	10.1	23.6	16.8	3.3	0.3	LAB	LAB
54	302	Manchester Rusholme	Afzal Khan	72,604	40.0	10.4	33.0	6.7	15.3	24.6	9.6	0.4	LAB	LAB
56	300	Manchester Central	Lucy Powell	85,049	46.7	10.7	33.2	10.6	20.8	19.4	4.9	0.5	LAB	LAB
60	296	St Helens North	David Baines	75,483	53.6	13.4	35.6	8.8	30.7	10.6	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
64	292	Sefton Central	Bill Esterson	74,282	63.9	19.3	41.0	10.2	20.0	8.4	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
68	288	Gorton and Denton	Andrew Gwynne	78,125	46.8	12.2	33.0	7.6	23.7	14.9	8.7	0.0	LAB	LAB
69	287	Blackley and Middleton South	Graham Stringer	72,097	43.5	13.1	33.7	8.8	31.6	12.0	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
72	284	Stretford and Urmston	Andrew Western	75,153	61.2	15.2	35.2	8.5	19.7	12.3	9.0	0.2	LAB	LAB
76	280	Runcorn and Helsby	Mike Amesbury	71,955	58.7	16.9	36.6	9.6	28.0	7.9	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
77	279	Stockport	Navendu Mishra	76,625	57.0	14.7	34.2	11.7	22.5	12.0	4.7	0.2	LAB	LAB
82	274	Wigan	Lisa Nandy	77,537	52.7	14.8	34.0	9.9	32.5	6.0	0.0	2.8	LAB	LAB
94	262	Wythenshawe and Sale East	Mike Kane	77,765	50.3	16.2	34.3	9.2	25.6	11.3	2.9	0.4	LAB	LAB
107	249	Lancashire West	Ashley Dalton	74,083	59.7	19.3	34.9	9.2	27.8	8.2	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
108	247	Makerfield	Josh Simons	76,845	52.4	15.2	30.7	9.5	37.7	6.0	0.0	1.0	LAB	Reform
110	246	Worsley and Eccles	Michael Wheeler	78,643	54.1	17.7	32.7	8.5	29.8	8.9	1.7	0.8	LAB	LAB
110	245	Warrington North	Charlotte Nichols	70,601	56.7	17.5	32.4	10.1	32.5	6.5	0.0	1.1	LAB	Reform
111	245	Chester North and Neston	Samantha Dixon	70,215	63.7	21.6	36.0	9.4	21.9	10.5	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
116	239	Whitehaven and Workington	Josh MacAlister	73,198	57.2	18.5	31.8	7.3	36.6	5.3	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
123	232	Ashton-under-Lyne	Angela Rayner	71,002	49.9	15.9	28.2	7.1	33.2	7.9	7.7	0.0	LAB	Reform
126	229	Leigh and Atherton	Jo Platt	79,761	51.6	17.5	29.0	7.8	38.3	6.5	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
131	225	Stalybridge and Hyde	Jonathan Reynolds	72,265	51.5	19.5	30.1	7.6	30.1	8.2	3.5	1.0	LAB	LAB
133	222	Bolton South and Walkden	Yasmin Qureshi	79,622	46.4	16.0	26.1	7.1	32.4	8.3	9.8	0.3	LAB	Reform
133	222	Heywood and Middleton North	Elsie Jane Blundell	74,786	49.6	19.8	29.7	10.8	33.2	3.4	0.0	3.1	LAB	Reform
133	222	Blackpool South	Chris Webb	77,459	45.4	17.6	27.5	7.6	40.1	6.4	0.0	0.9	LAB	Reform
142	213	Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton	Jim McMahon	73,178	52.7	16.3	25.4	7.8	27.6	6.2	15.1	1.7	LAB	Reform
147	209	Warrington South	Sarah Edith Hall	78,399	63.4	22.8	31.5	10.9	26.5	7.6	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
147	208	Lancaster and Wyre	Cat Smith	74,760	57.5	20.3	29.0	8.2	29.8	12.3	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
151	205	Preston	Mark Hendrick	77,400	51.7	16.7	25.1	10.1	24.2	6.7	16.4	0.8	LAB	LAB
157	198	Rochdale	Paul Waugh	71,264	55.7	15.6	23.3	8.6	25.7	5.4	21.4	0.0	LAB	Reform
159	196	Cheshire Mid	Andrew Graham Cooper	70,384	59.0	22.0	29.4	9.6	30.8	7.2	0.0	1.1	LAB	Reform
164	192	Wirral West	Matthew Patrick	72,838	68.6	25.0	32.2	10.3	22.1	9.9	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
165	191	Bury South	Christian Wakeford	75,339	56.0	22.2	29.3	8.1	28.4	8.7	2.7	0.5	LAB	LAB
168	187	Crewe and Nantwich	Connor Naismith	78,423	60.2	21.8	28.4	8.5	32.5	6.9	1.1	0.8	LAB	Reform
169	187	Macclesfield	Tim Roca	76,416	69.1	26.1	32.5	9.3	23.7	7.4	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
170	185	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Debbie Abrahams	72,760	55.1	19.4	25.7	10.7	28.4	5.6	9.2	1.1	LAB	Reform
176	179	Blackburn	Adnan Hussain	73,259	53.1	15.0	20.2	5.3	21.7	6.6	31.1	0.0	MIN	MIN
183	172	Southport	Patrick Brian Hurley	73,641	61.2	22.9	26.6	13.5	29.1	7.0	0.0	0.9	LAB	Reform
190	165	Bury North	James Frith	77,703	58.6	25.6	27.9	7.2	28.5	6.4	3.9	0.5	LAB	Reform
190	165	Burnley	Oliver Ryan	74,951	53.0	21.3	23.5	18.2	30.3	5.8	0.0	1.0	LAB	Reform
194	161	Bolton North East	Kirith Entwistle	80,011	54.2	21.8	23.3	7.1	33.5	10.6	3.4	0.4	LAB	Reform
197	158	Penrith and Solway	Markus Campbell-Savours	77,935	63.2	25.3	26.0	11.1	31.6	5.6	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
200	155	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Lizzi Collinge	76,424	62.9	25.9	25.8	12.2	29.3	6.5	0.0	0.3	LAB	Reform
204	152	Altrincham and Sale West	Connor Rand	74,025	69.5	28.8	28.4	11.5	19.2	9.6	2.5	0.0	LAB	CON
205	150	South Ribble	Paul Andrew Foster	73,420	63.6	27.4	26.9	9.1	30.3	6.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
210	145	Barrow and Furness	Michelle Scrogham	74,980	56.3	28.0	26.4	7.8	31.4	6.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
210	145	Carlisle	Julie Minns	77,863	59.1	26.0	24.3	9.2	33.5	6.4	0.0	0.6	LAB	Reform
211	144	Rossendale and Darwen	Andy MacNae	74,440	59.9	26.7	25.0	6.4	32.7	7.4	1.8	0.0	LAB	Reform
215	140	Hazel Grove	Lisa Smart	72,843	63.1	20.9	18.9	27.6	25.7	6.4	0.0	0.6	LIB	LIB
221	134	Bolton West	Phil Brickell	74,933	59.5	28.0	24.7	7.9	28.8	10.2	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
224	132	Congleton	Sarah Alison Russell	74,243	67.5	28.6	24.9	10.5	27.3	7.2	0.0	1.5	LAB	CON
224	131	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Lorraine Beavers	73,339	57.0	27.9	24.2	6.9	34.9	5.5	0.0	0.6	LAB	Reform
225	130	Hyndburn	Sarah Smith	76,126	47.8	25.2	21.0	6.9	34.8	11.6	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
245	111	Ribble Valley	Maya Ellis	80,484	64.6	29.6	22.4	12.1	28.9	6.3	0.0	0.8	LAB	CON
245	110	Pendle and Clitheroe	Jonathan James Hinder	78,796	59.3	30.3	23.1	8.3	30.9	5.5	0.4	1.4	LAB	Reform
255	101	Chester South and Eddisbury	Aphra Brandreth	74,284	70.7	31.6	23.3	12.4	25.6	6.3	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
258	97	Cheadle	Tom Morrison	74,383	68.2	23.6	15.1	33.0	19.4	6.2	2.5	0.1	LIB	LIB
259	97	Fylde	Andrew Snowden	77,100	62.2	30.5	21.9	10.0	29.2	6.2	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
261	95	Tatton	Esther McVey	75,978	68.3	33.6	24.9	11.2	22.6	7.4	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
264	91	Westmorland and Lonsdale	Tim Farron	72,029	68.8	18.5	9.4	42.7	23.8	5.1	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.