| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 18.7% | 4 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 37.0% | 0 | 10 | -10 | 56 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 7.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 23.9% | 5 | 0 | +5 | 5 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 9.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 4.0% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Chorley' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Westmorland and Lonsdale', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Hyndburn (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bolton South and Walkden (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 486 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 0.0 | 66.4 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 16.3 | 0.0 | 7.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 2 | 485 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 3.5 | 62.6 | 2.3 | 22.5 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 3 | 484 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 4.3 | 60.8 | 3.1 | 18.7 | 11.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 4 | 483 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 4.1 | 59.3 | 3.1 | 23.1 | 9.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 5 | 482 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 4.1 | 58.6 | 3.1 | 21.3 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 6 | 481 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 3.5 | 54.0 | 4.3 | 17.8 | 18.3 | 0.0 | 2.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 9 | 478 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 4.7 | 50.0 | 6.3 | 17.0 | 19.2 | 0.0 | 2.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 11 | 476 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 9.2 | 53.7 | 3.8 | 25.1 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 16 | 471 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 7.0 | 50.4 | 7.0 | 20.5 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 5.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 21 | 466 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 5.4 | 44.9 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 21.3 | 4.3 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 23 | 464 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 11.6 | 49.8 | 3.9 | 22.4 | 10.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 24 | 463 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 5.7 | 43.9 | 0.0 | 11.4 | 25.3 | 12.6 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 26 | 461 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 12.4 | 49.7 | 5.1 | 24.2 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 29 | 458 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 7.5 | 44.2 | 4.8 | 21.1 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 31 | 456 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 9.0 | 45.3 | 6.3 | 22.2 | 14.9 | 2.0 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 32 | 455 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 9.8 | 45.9 | 4.6 | 27.8 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 34 | 453 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 7.1 | 42.9 | 7.0 | 19.3 | 18.0 | 4.8 | 0.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 37 | 450 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 7.9 | 42.8 | 3.5 | 20.6 | 14.9 | 10.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 47 | 440 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 8.0 | 41.8 | 5.3 | 28.3 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 7.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 52 | 435 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 11.1 | 44.7 | 4.1 | 29.3 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 62 | 425 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 13.7 | 44.7 | 4.6 | 22.2 | 12.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 65 | 422 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 17.8 | 48.5 | 5.1 | 19.2 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 67 | 420 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 11.3 | 41.9 | 7.8 | 22.0 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 77 | 410 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 15.9 | 45.0 | 4.6 | 25.3 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 78 | 409 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 10.5 | 39.5 | 3.8 | 33.9 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 5.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 93 | 394 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 14.1 | 41.3 | 4.4 | 18.8 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 103 | 383 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 10.8 | 37.3 | 6.2 | 38.9 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 117 | 370 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 20.2 | 45.1 | 2.4 | 27.7 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 119 | 368 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 15.7 | 40.6 | 3.5 | 33.8 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 123 | 364 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 15.6 | 40.2 | 2.7 | 35.5 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 128 | 359 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 15.9 | 39.7 | 4.0 | 28.7 | 9.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 130 | 357 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 12.3 | 36.0 | 3.6 | 31.3 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 138 | 349 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 19.6 | 42.5 | 4.2 | 24.5 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 140 | 347 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 16.1 | 38.8 | 6.2 | 31.1 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 149 | 338 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 11.2 | 32.9 | 3.4 | 29.6 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 163 | 324 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 23.2 | 41.9 | 4.2 | 19.8 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 176 | 311 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 18.4 | 35.9 | 2.6 | 28.5 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 1.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 192 | 294 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 10.5 | 26.4 | 3.0 | 26.9 | 7.3 | 21.4 | 4.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 197 | 289 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 17.2 | 32.7 | 5.7 | 34.2 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 7.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 200 | 287 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 23.8 | 38.8 | 7.0 | 23.1 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 202 | 285 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 23.4 | 37.7 | 3.9 | 23.4 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 202 | 284 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 10.7 | 24.9 | 6.5 | 23.9 | 4.9 | 29.2 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 203 | 284 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 13.0 | 27.1 | 7.3 | 22.3 | 6.5 | 21.8 | 2.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 209 | 278 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 23.3 | 37.0 | 3.2 | 22.5 | 13.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 210 | 277 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 22.9 | 36.5 | 5.4 | 26.8 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 218 | 269 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 23.5 | 36.2 | 4.4 | 27.6 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 220 | 267 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 26.3 | 38.4 | 5.6 | 19.6 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 230 | 256 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 17.0 | 27.2 | 7.7 | 27.7 | 6.0 | 11.6 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 234 | 252 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 8.9 | 18.8 | 1.6 | 22.1 | 6.2 | 27.0 | 15.3 | MIN | MIN |
| 236 | 251 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 29.4 | 38.8 | 4.3 | 19.7 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 251 | 236 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 21.9 | 29.4 | 3.2 | 28.7 | 12.7 | 3.4 | 0.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 252 | 235 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 27.8 | 35.2 | 2.6 | 23.3 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 259 | 228 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 28.5 | 34.5 | 5.8 | 26.0 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 263 | 224 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 25.4 | 30.4 | 12.1 | 24.1 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 267 | 220 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 28.2 | 33.0 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 268 | 219 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 31.2 | 36.0 | 3.6 | 23.5 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 272 | 215 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 28.6 | 32.9 | 9.1 | 23.2 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 274 | 212 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 20.2 | 23.8 | 22.2 | 27.0 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 277 | 210 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 28.1 | 31.5 | 5.9 | 27.5 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 281 | 206 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 28.9 | 32.1 | 2.9 | 30.6 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 282 | 205 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 27.8 | 31.0 | 4.0 | 25.8 | 11.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 286 | 201 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 29.8 | 32.6 | 8.8 | 22.7 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 310 | 177 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 32.3 | 32.5 | 8.4 | 16.6 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 319 | 168 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 30.8 | 29.7 | 5.1 | 24.9 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | CON |
| 332 | 155 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 28.8 | 25.6 | 3.0 | 27.3 | 15.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 336 | 150 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 19.5 | 15.6 | 36.8 | 22.2 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 347 | 140 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 32.5 | 26.6 | 4.0 | 26.5 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 4.3 | LAB | CON |
| 349 | 138 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 33.2 | 27.0 | 8.8 | 24.1 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | CON |
| 373 | 114 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 33.1 | 24.1 | 4.0 | 27.1 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 5.8 | CON | CON |
| 377 | 110 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 38.4 | 28.3 | 8.1 | 18.4 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 400 | 87 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 37.9 | 24.2 | 9.5 | 20.2 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 | CON | CON |
| 409 | 77 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 22.5 | 7.7 | 45.8 | 17.2 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 427 | 59 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 19.3 | 1.0 | 61.8 | 13.6 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.