| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 15.9% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 32.3% | 0 | 31 | -31 | 35 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 10.5% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 30.1% | 33 | 0 | +33 | 33 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 8.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 3.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Chorley' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Chester South and Eddisbury', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Chester South and Eddisbury (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Chorley (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 320 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 6.2 | 50.4 | 9.4 | 21.5 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 2 | 319 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 6.0 | 49.8 | 7.6 | 28.1 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 3 | 318 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 6.3 | 49.4 | 9.3 | 26.4 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 5 | 316 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 5.6 | 47.5 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 20.3 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 6 | 315 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 5.9 | 47.3 | 9.8 | 18.9 | 18.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 7 | 314 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 6.4 | 46.8 | 5.1 | 23.9 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 8 | 313 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 7.7 | 47.9 | 12.4 | 23.5 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 9 | 312 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 5.7 | 46.0 | 8.7 | 21.7 | 17.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 12 | 309 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 6.5 | 45.4 | 6.2 | 28.3 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 29 | 292 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 9.3 | 41.4 | 5.4 | 30.9 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 30 | 291 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 8.0 | 39.6 | 7.9 | 26.1 | 18.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 33 | 288 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 7.1 | 38.0 | 3.6 | 17.1 | 23.7 | 10.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 35 | 286 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 10.5 | 41.2 | 6.0 | 28.0 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 37 | 284 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 8.0 | 38.5 | 6.7 | 27.9 | 14.4 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 38 | 283 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 8.4 | 38.9 | 11.3 | 34.0 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 41 | 280 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 7.7 | 37.8 | 6.9 | 24.7 | 17.2 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 48 | 273 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 9.4 | 36.3 | 4.3 | 27.5 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 49 | 272 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 10.4 | 37.3 | 7.4 | 36.3 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 54 | 267 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 11.5 | 37.3 | 12.3 | 31.1 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 54 | 266 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 9.8 | 35.5 | 6.5 | 37.7 | 10.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 56 | 265 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 12.8 | 37.4 | 5.6 | 24.0 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 63 | 258 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 10.4 | 33.4 | 11.6 | 25.3 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 66 | 255 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 15.7 | 38.1 | 12.6 | 25.7 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 67 | 253 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 10.0 | 31.8 | 13.5 | 39.8 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 73 | 248 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 12.1 | 33.2 | 9.5 | 28.4 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 73 | 247 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 12.6 | 33.5 | 8.8 | 39.6 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 77 | 244 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 14.1 | 34.6 | 11.8 | 31.9 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 79 | 242 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 15.8 | 36.2 | 7.9 | 35.3 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 86 | 234 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 12.8 | 31.6 | 8.5 | 42.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 89 | 231 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 10.3 | 28.3 | 11.7 | 44.8 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 91 | 230 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 18.3 | 36.3 | 10.4 | 28.3 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 95 | 225 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 13.5 | 30.3 | 9.6 | 35.4 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 97 | 224 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 16.6 | 33.2 | 7.2 | 29.7 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 98 | 223 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 17.4 | 34.0 | 9.8 | 32.6 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 98 | 222 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 13.7 | 30.3 | 12.1 | 38.2 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 107 | 213 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 16.7 | 32.1 | 11.0 | 32.1 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 109 | 212 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 17.9 | 33.2 | 7.6 | 28.3 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 113 | 208 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 18.9 | 33.8 | 10.8 | 26.1 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 114 | 207 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 17.6 | 32.2 | 13.0 | 31.6 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 117 | 204 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 22.6 | 37.0 | 8.6 | 25.3 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 118 | 203 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 21.5 | 35.7 | 9.4 | 23.8 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 123 | 197 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 11.5 | 25.1 | 6.5 | 37.4 | 7.1 | 12.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 124 | 196 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 14.6 | 28.0 | 13.8 | 41.6 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 124 | 196 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 18.4 | 31.7 | 8.0 | 33.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 130 | 190 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 14.9 | 27.7 | 8.7 | 35.4 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 130 | 190 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 13.6 | 26.4 | 26.0 | 29.2 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 135 | 185 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 11.9 | 23.7 | 6.4 | 36.5 | 7.2 | 14.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 137 | 183 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 12.1 | 23.3 | 9.8 | 28.3 | 5.2 | 21.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 138 | 182 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 11.9 | 23.0 | 8.4 | 33.0 | 4.8 | 18.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 138 | 182 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 10.9 | 22.0 | 7.5 | 29.5 | 3.6 | 26.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 150 | 170 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 14.9 | 23.8 | 11.0 | 34.3 | 4.1 | 11.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 152 | 169 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 22.0 | 30.7 | 6.1 | 29.5 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 155 | 165 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 15.8 | 24.3 | 18.6 | 37.3 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 155 | 165 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 17.8 | 26.2 | 5.8 | 34.4 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 161 | 160 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 25.4 | 32.9 | 9.0 | 20.3 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 161 | 159 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 14.1 | 21.2 | 3.0 | 28.5 | 4.1 | 29.1 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 165 | 155 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 16.6 | 22.5 | 29.7 | 22.8 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 168 | 152 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 23.5 | 26.9 | 14.7 | 29.4 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 168 | 152 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 13.8 | 17.1 | 40.3 | 25.0 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 168 | 152 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 21.0 | 24.3 | 7.0 | 36.7 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 169 | 151 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 24.4 | 27.1 | 11.3 | 32.3 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 169 | 151 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 24.7 | 27.2 | 13.5 | 29.7 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 170 | 150 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 23.5 | 25.3 | 11.6 | 34.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 171 | 149 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 25.4 | 27.2 | 10.5 | 31.6 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 173 | 147 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 23.7 | 24.7 | 7.1 | 33.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 176 | 144 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 24.7 | 25.3 | 9.7 | 31.2 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 176 | 144 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 23.8 | 24.3 | 9.4 | 38.1 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 177 | 143 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 26.8 | 27.0 | 11.4 | 29.7 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 192 | 128 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 27.7 | 23.8 | 10.8 | 32.8 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 200 | 120 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 28.6 | 23.2 | 11.5 | 32.8 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 201 | 120 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 31.7 | 26.0 | 12.7 | 23.6 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 207 | 113 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 29.9 | 23.5 | 11.9 | 30.4 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 215 | 106 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 31.4 | 23.6 | 14.3 | 25.1 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.