Scotland: Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 12.7%5 11.5%02-23
LAB 35.3%37 19.5%029-298
LIB 9.7%6 9.5%00+06
Reform 7.0%0 21.0%00+00
Green 3.8%0 6.0%00+00
SNP 30.0%9 31.5%310+3140
Other 1.5%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Airdrie and Shotts' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Airdrie and Shotts (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
21166Airdrie and Shotts Kenneth Stevenson70,19952.23.934.22.023.62.432.40.01.5LABLAB
21165Coatbridge and Bellshill Frank McNally72,66753.33.032.61.821.35.434.90.01.0LABSNP
25162Edinburgh South Ian Murray70,83966.17.236.05.720.011.618.10.01.4LABLAB
26161Rutherglen Michael Shanks72,67458.54.833.34.022.42.531.40.01.7LABLAB
26160Dunbartonshire West Douglas McAllister69,07457.33.131.62.121.36.035.00.00.8LABSNP
28159Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Torcuil Crichton21,23563.74.032.32.823.93.022.60.011.5LABLAB
33153Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Pamela Nash71,77754.45.231.92.122.35.332.50.00.7LABSNP
37149Glasgow West Patricia Ferguson69,02857.83.629.53.219.611.432.00.00.7LABSNP
37149Glasgow North East Maureen Burke72,61047.02.928.81.821.89.633.70.01.4LABSNP
37149Paisley and Renfrewshire South Johanna Baxter71,57457.74.530.33.121.76.433.10.00.8LABSNP
38148Midlothian Kirsty McNeill73,91659.86.231.55.722.12.331.70.00.6LABSNP
39148East Kilbride and Strathaven Joani Reid76,41561.16.431.42.322.26.230.70.00.9LABLAB
40146Paisley and Renfrewshire North Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor71,10358.45.430.03.321.95.733.40.00.4LABSNP
45141Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Katrina Murray70,35058.24.028.13.121.66.336.50.00.4LABSNP
52134Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Martin McCluskey70,12457.56.029.83.121.85.332.60.01.4LABSNP
54133Bathgate and Linlithgow Kirsteen Sullivan72,18558.36.329.95.023.55.628.70.01.0LABLAB
55132Hamilton and Clyde Valley Imogen Walker75,48055.89.332.73.522.62.329.00.00.5LABLAB
55131Glasgow South West Zubir Ahmed68,87151.83.326.52.720.89.935.80.01.0LABSNP
59127Glasgow East John Grady68,98851.44.026.82.521.39.934.60.00.9LABSNP
60126Glenrothes and Mid Fife Richard Baker70,65551.14.627.24.323.82.237.50.00.4LABSNP
61125Dunfermline and Dollar Graeme Downie72,82461.26.228.66.921.77.028.70.01.0LABSNP
62124Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Melanie Ward71,84556.86.628.63.823.66.329.50.01.6LABSNP
63124Lothian East Douglas Alexander75,45663.79.931.85.421.67.523.00.00.9LABLAB
64122Glasgow North Martin Rhodes67,57951.43.325.23.219.414.533.40.01.0LABSNP
65121Glasgow South Gordon McKee70,21960.43.224.73.119.015.433.40.01.2LABSNP
69117Kilmarnock and Loudoun Lillian Jones74,62856.97.027.82.022.95.234.30.00.8LABSNP
71115Alloa and Grangemouth Brian Leishman70,68058.36.426.72.825.36.030.40.71.7LABSNP
76110Edinburgh North and Leith Tracy Gilbert78,41163.15.525.07.618.813.328.80.01.0LABSNP
76110Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Chris Murray76,18859.84.824.24.219.112.534.50.00.7LABSNP
79107Falkirk Euan Stainbank73,58457.97.126.02.623.76.532.80.01.4LABSNP
86100Dundee Central Chris Law74,22152.33.421.36.022.52.641.40.62.2SNPSNP
9096Livingston Gregor Poynton78,04357.56.523.94.423.86.134.50.00.9LABSNP
11571Ayrshire Central Alan Gemmell69,41359.713.226.62.423.44.828.70.00.9LABSNP
11571Edinburgh South West Scott Arthur73,78461.910.623.96.419.79.928.80.00.8LABSNP
12066Renfrewshire East Blair McDougall73,38068.415.326.62.320.55.528.50.01.4LABSNP
12264Ayrshire North and Arran Irene Campbell72,17658.612.522.82.423.15.432.90.00.8LABSNP
14244Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Stephen Patrick Gethins76,14957.913.916.65.024.12.436.80.01.2SNPSNP
14541Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman75,92555.412.413.66.025.05.536.00.01.5SNPSNP
14541Dunbartonshire Mid Susan Murray73,59671.73.94.342.018.25.525.40.00.7LIBLIB
14541Stirling and Strathallan Chris Kane76,28465.317.417.05.020.76.932.60.00.4LABSNP
14541Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Elaine Stewart70,34058.221.019.62.623.64.527.90.00.9LABSNP
14640Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,23660.42.40.154.713.610.718.20.00.3LIBLIB
14838Edinburgh West Christine Anne Jardine76,49068.64.61.850.415.95.820.80.00.8LIBLIB
14838Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain69,76261.23.30.254.312.54.924.40.00.3LIBLIB
14838Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Angus MacDonald77,92761.74.41.137.416.25.734.60.00.5LIBLIB
14838Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone74,62761.73.40.149.014.44.627.60.00.9LIBLIB
16917Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn77,32859.922.88.16.122.05.834.30.00.9SNPSNP
17313Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber Brendan O'Hara71,75662.519.23.116.021.92.336.20.01.2SNPSNP
1797Dumfries and Galloway John Cooper78,54158.327.99.14.523.95.029.00.00.6CONSNP
1824Perth and Kinross-shire Pete Wishart77,26164.827.92.77.119.92.139.30.00.9SNPSNP
1824Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Graham Leadbitter77,07260.428.42.67.821.15.733.60.00.7SNPSNP
1834Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell71,90061.532.36.46.123.25.625.80.00.6CONCON
1833Angus and Perthshire Glens Dave Doogan76,66861.828.51.66.518.81.841.90.01.0SNPSNP
1842Gordon and Buchan Harriet Cross69,60563.031.30.416.318.01.332.30.00.4CONSNP
1842Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Seamus Logan70,05854.531.10.27.023.31.236.70.00.4SNPSNP
1852Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Campbell Bowie72,99467.134.01.112.618.03.730.00.00.6CONCON
1861Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont76,43860.938.91.37.618.55.027.80.00.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.