Scotland: Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 12.7%5 12.4%01-14
LAB 35.3%37 18.0%033-334
LIB 9.7%6 10.4%00+06
Reform 7.0%0 17.0%00+00
Green 3.8%0 6.6%00+00
SNP 30.0%9 31.4%340+3443
Other 1.5%0 4.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Airdrie and Shotts' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dumfries and Galloway (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Airdrie and Shotts (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
34321Airdrie and Shotts Kenneth Stevenson70,19952.25.131.42.819.23.132.50.05.8LABSNP
34321Coatbridge and Bellshill Frank McNally72,66753.34.230.02.617.66.334.90.04.4LABSNP
39317Edinburgh South Ian Murray70,83966.18.333.16.715.612.318.20.05.8LABLAB
39316Dunbartonshire West Douglas McAllister69,07457.34.429.03.017.86.935.10.03.8LABSNP
40315Rutherglen Michael Shanks72,67458.56.030.64.917.53.131.50.06.5LABSNP
42314Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Torcuil Crichton21,23563.75.229.73.716.23.122.70.019.5LABLAB
49306Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Pamela Nash71,77754.46.429.33.018.86.232.50.03.8LABSNP
59296Glasgow West Patricia Ferguson69,02857.84.827.24.216.012.332.00.03.6LABSNP
59296Glasgow North East Maureen Burke72,61047.04.226.52.617.310.333.70.05.5LABSNP
61294Paisley and Renfrewshire South Johanna Baxter71,57457.75.727.84.118.17.333.10.03.9LABSNP
64291Midlothian Kirsty McNeill73,91659.87.328.96.718.73.131.70.03.5LABSNP
65290East Kilbride and Strathaven Joani Reid76,41561.17.528.83.218.57.030.80.04.2LABSNP
66289Paisley and Renfrewshire North Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor71,10358.46.527.64.218.86.633.40.02.9LABSNP
68287Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Katrina Murray70,35058.25.225.84.018.47.236.50.02.8LABSNP
70285Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Martin McCluskey70,12457.57.127.44.017.26.032.70.05.6LABSNP
71284Bathgate and Linlithgow Kirsteen Sullivan72,18558.37.427.56.019.56.428.80.04.4LABSNP
72283Glasgow South West Zubir Ahmed68,87151.84.524.43.516.810.735.80.04.2LABSNP
74282Hamilton and Clyde Valley Imogen Walker75,48055.810.430.14.519.53.229.10.03.3LABLAB
77278Glasgow East John Grady68,98851.45.324.63.317.310.834.60.04.1LABSNP
82273Glenrothes and Mid Fife Richard Baker70,65551.15.825.05.320.53.137.60.02.8LABSNP
86269Dunfermline and Dollar Graeme Downie72,82461.27.426.38.017.57.828.70.04.4LABSNP
89266Glasgow North Martin Rhodes67,57951.44.523.24.215.215.233.40.04.3LABSNP
89266Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Melanie Ward71,84556.87.726.34.818.86.929.50.06.0LABSNP
90265Glasgow South Gordon McKee70,21960.44.422.84.014.516.133.30.04.8LABSNP
93263Lothian East Douglas Alexander75,45663.711.029.26.417.98.323.10.04.2LABLAB
98257Kilmarnock and Loudoun Lillian Jones74,62856.98.125.52.919.36.034.40.03.8LABSNP
100255Alloa and Grangemouth Brian Leishman70,68058.37.524.63.720.26.530.40.96.2LABSNP
103252Edinburgh North and Leith Tracy Gilbert78,41163.16.723.08.714.414.028.80.04.3LABSNP
103252Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Chris Murray76,18859.86.022.35.115.213.334.50.03.5LABSNP
105250Falkirk Euan Stainbank73,58457.98.223.93.418.97.132.80.05.6LABSNP
108247Dundee Central Chris Law74,22152.34.619.77.016.33.041.40.77.3SNPSNP
110245Livingston Gregor Poynton78,04357.57.622.05.419.66.934.50.04.0LABSNP
132223Edinburgh South West Scott Arthur73,78461.911.622.07.515.610.728.80.03.8LABSNP
133222Ayrshire Central Alan Gemmell69,41359.714.324.53.219.55.628.70.04.2LABSNP
153202Renfrewshire East Blair McDougall73,38068.416.424.53.215.96.128.50.05.4LABSNP
159196Ayrshire North and Arran Irene Campbell72,17658.613.521.03.219.06.232.90.04.0LABSNP
198157Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Stephen Patrick Gethins76,14957.915.015.36.019.23.136.70.04.8SNPSNP
205150Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman75,92555.413.412.67.019.36.135.90.05.7SNPSNP
206149Dunbartonshire Mid Susan Murray73,59671.75.14.243.213.16.225.10.03.1LIBLIB
216139Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,23660.42.50.155.212.410.617.80.01.4LIBLIB
219136Stirling and Strathallan Chris Kane76,28465.318.515.85.916.97.732.50.02.7LABSNP
221134Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain69,76261.23.30.254.911.04.724.00.01.9LIBLIB
221134Edinburgh West Christine Anne Jardine76,49068.65.22.051.312.05.820.40.03.3LIBLIB
222133Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone74,62761.73.40.149.512.24.327.10.03.2LIBLIB
223132Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Angus MacDonald77,92761.74.71.338.213.45.734.30.02.5LIBLIB
224131Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Elaine Stewart70,34058.222.018.13.519.45.227.80.03.9LABSNP
31045Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn77,32859.923.87.67.216.96.534.10.03.9SNPSNP
31342Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber Brendan O'Hara71,75662.520.13.517.216.12.735.90.04.5SNPSNP
33818Dumfries and Galloway John Cooper78,54158.329.08.55.419.55.728.80.03.1CONCON
3505Perth and Kinross-shire Pete Wishart77,26164.828.73.18.015.02.539.00.03.7SNPSNP
3505Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Graham Leadbitter77,07260.429.13.08.816.56.033.30.03.3SNPSNP
3505Angus and Perthshire Glens Dave Doogan76,66861.828.91.87.115.01.841.60.03.8SNPSNP
3524Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell71,90061.533.46.07.218.56.425.60.03.0CONCON
3532Gordon and Buchan Harriet Cross69,60563.031.20.416.916.21.131.90.02.2CONSNP
3532Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Seamus Logan70,05854.531.10.27.521.71.036.30.02.2SNPSNP
3542Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Campbell Bowie72,99467.134.21.313.315.03.729.70.02.8CONCON
3551Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont76,43860.939.21.58.315.24.927.50.03.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.