Scotland: Sorted Seats
Scotland Prediction
| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 12.7% | 5 | 12.4% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 37 | 18.0% | 0 | 33 | -33 | 4 |
| LIB | 9.7% | 6 | 10.4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 6 |
| Reform | 7.0% | 0 | 17.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 3.8% | 0 | 6.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| SNP | 30.0% | 9 | 31.4% | 34 | 0 | +34 | 43 |
| Other | 1.5% | 0 | 4.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Airdrie and Shotts' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dumfries and Galloway (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Airdrie and Shotts (prediction: SNP).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
List of Scotland seats with predictions
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | SNP % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 327 | Airdrie and Shotts | Kenneth Stevenson | 70,199 | 52.2 | 5.5 | 30.8 | 3.9 | 19.1 | 3.0 | 32.4 | 0.0 | 5.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 47 | 325 | Coatbridge and Bellshill | Frank McNally | 72,667 | 53.3 | 4.6 | 29.4 | 3.6 | 17.3 | 6.1 | 34.8 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 53 | 320 | Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 70,839 | 66.1 | 8.5 | 32.5 | 7.0 | 15.8 | 12.3 | 18.4 | 0.0 | 5.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 54 | 318 | Dunbartonshire West | Douglas McAllister | 69,074 | 57.3 | 4.6 | 28.5 | 3.8 | 17.5 | 6.6 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 55 | 317 | Rutherglen | Michael Shanks | 72,674 | 58.5 | 6.4 | 30.0 | 5.6 | 17.7 | 3.1 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 5.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 57 | 316 | Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Torcuil Crichton | 21,235 | 63.7 | 5.8 | 29.1 | 4.7 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 22.6 | 0.0 | 18.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 59 | 313 | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Pamela Nash | 71,777 | 54.4 | 6.6 | 28.8 | 3.8 | 18.4 | 6.0 | 32.5 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 61 | 311 | Glasgow West | Patricia Ferguson | 69,028 | 57.8 | 5.1 | 26.7 | 4.7 | 15.7 | 12.0 | 31.9 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 63 | 309 | Glasgow North East | Maureen Burke | 72,610 | 47.0 | 4.6 | 26.0 | 3.7 | 17.1 | 10.1 | 33.6 | 0.0 | 4.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 63 | 309 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Johanna Baxter | 71,574 | 57.7 | 5.9 | 27.4 | 4.7 | 17.8 | 7.1 | 33.1 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 64 | 308 | Midlothian | Kirsty McNeill | 73,916 | 59.8 | 7.5 | 28.4 | 6.8 | 18.6 | 3.0 | 31.9 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 65 | 307 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Joani Reid | 76,415 | 61.1 | 7.7 | 28.4 | 4.0 | 18.2 | 6.8 | 30.7 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 69 | 303 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor | 71,103 | 58.4 | 6.7 | 27.1 | 4.7 | 18.4 | 6.4 | 33.4 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 69 | 303 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Katrina Murray | 70,350 | 58.2 | 5.4 | 25.4 | 4.6 | 18.0 | 6.9 | 36.5 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 72 | 300 | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Martin McCluskey | 70,124 | 57.5 | 7.4 | 26.9 | 4.8 | 17.2 | 5.9 | 32.7 | 0.0 | 5.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 74 | 298 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Kirsteen Sullivan | 72,185 | 58.3 | 7.6 | 27.0 | 6.3 | 19.5 | 6.3 | 28.9 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 74 | 298 | Glasgow South West | Zubir Ahmed | 68,871 | 51.8 | 4.8 | 24.1 | 4.3 | 16.5 | 10.5 | 35.7 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 76 | 297 | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Imogen Walker | 75,480 | 55.8 | 10.4 | 29.5 | 5.0 | 19.1 | 3.0 | 29.2 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 81 | 291 | Glasgow East | John Grady | 68,988 | 51.4 | 5.5 | 24.3 | 4.1 | 17.0 | 10.5 | 34.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 81 | 291 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Richard Baker | 70,655 | 51.1 | 5.9 | 24.7 | 5.6 | 20.2 | 2.8 | 37.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 87 | 285 | Dunfermline and Dollar | Graeme Downie | 72,824 | 61.2 | 7.6 | 25.9 | 7.8 | 17.7 | 7.7 | 28.8 | 0.0 | 4.5 | LAB | SNP |
| 87 | 285 | Glasgow North | Martin Rhodes | 67,579 | 51.4 | 4.8 | 22.9 | 4.8 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 88 | 284 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Melanie Ward | 71,845 | 56.8 | 8.0 | 25.9 | 5.4 | 18.8 | 6.9 | 29.5 | 0.0 | 5.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 88 | 284 | Glasgow South | Gordon McKee | 70,219 | 60.4 | 4.8 | 22.5 | 4.7 | 14.4 | 15.9 | 33.2 | 0.0 | 4.5 | LAB | SNP |
| 89 | 284 | Lothian East | Douglas Alexander | 75,456 | 63.7 | 11.1 | 28.7 | 6.5 | 17.8 | 8.3 | 23.2 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 91 | 281 | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Lillian Jones | 74,628 | 56.9 | 8.2 | 25.2 | 3.7 | 18.9 | 5.8 | 34.3 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 94 | 278 | Alloa and Grangemouth | Brian Leishman | 70,680 | 58.3 | 7.8 | 24.2 | 4.5 | 20.1 | 6.4 | 30.4 | 1.2 | 5.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 97 | 275 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Chris Murray | 76,188 | 59.8 | 6.2 | 22.1 | 5.5 | 15.1 | 13.1 | 34.5 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 97 | 275 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Tracy Gilbert | 78,411 | 63.1 | 6.9 | 22.8 | 8.4 | 14.7 | 13.9 | 28.9 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 100 | 272 | Falkirk | Euan Stainbank | 73,584 | 57.9 | 8.4 | 23.6 | 4.3 | 18.8 | 7.0 | 32.8 | 0.0 | 5.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 105 | 267 | Dundee Central | Chris Law | 74,221 | 52.3 | 5.1 | 19.5 | 7.3 | 16.8 | 3.0 | 41.3 | 0.9 | 6.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 108 | 264 | Livingston | Gregor Poynton | 78,043 | 57.5 | 7.8 | 21.7 | 5.7 | 19.5 | 6.7 | 34.5 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 145 | 227 | Edinburgh South West | Scott Arthur | 73,784 | 61.9 | 11.7 | 21.7 | 7.4 | 15.6 | 10.6 | 28.9 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 147 | 225 | Ayrshire Central | Alan Gemmell | 69,413 | 59.7 | 14.4 | 24.2 | 4.1 | 19.1 | 5.5 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 160 | 212 | Renfrewshire East | Blair McDougall | 73,380 | 68.4 | 16.5 | 24.2 | 4.1 | 15.7 | 6.0 | 28.5 | 0.0 | 5.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 165 | 207 | Ayrshire North and Arran | Irene Campbell | 72,176 | 58.6 | 13.6 | 20.8 | 4.1 | 18.7 | 6.0 | 32.9 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 188 | 184 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Stephen Patrick Gethins | 76,149 | 57.9 | 15.1 | 15.3 | 6.3 | 19.2 | 2.9 | 36.7 | 0.0 | 4.6 | SNP | SNP |
| 192 | 180 | Dunbartonshire Mid | Susan Murray | 73,596 | 71.7 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 42.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 25.1 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 194 | 178 | Aberdeen North | Kirsty Blackman | 75,925 | 55.4 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 19.6 | 6.0 | 35.9 | 0.0 | 5.1 | SNP | SNP |
| 204 | 168 | Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 34,236 | 60.4 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 53.5 | 12.9 | 11.2 | 17.6 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 204 | 168 | Stirling and Strathallan | Chris Kane | 76,284 | 65.3 | 18.4 | 15.7 | 6.1 | 16.6 | 7.5 | 32.5 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 208 | 164 | Edinburgh West | Christine Anne Jardine | 76,490 | 68.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 50.0 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 20.3 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 210 | 162 | Fife North East | Wendy Chamberlain | 69,762 | 61.2 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 53.3 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 23.8 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 211 | 161 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Angus MacDonald | 77,927 | 61.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 36.7 | 13.6 | 6.2 | 34.2 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 211 | 161 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Jamie Stone | 74,627 | 61.7 | 3.8 | 0.2 | 48.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 26.9 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 215 | 157 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Elaine Stewart | 70,340 | 58.2 | 22.1 | 18.0 | 4.3 | 19.1 | 5.0 | 27.7 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 305 | 67 | Aberdeen South | Stephen Flynn | 77,328 | 59.9 | 23.9 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 16.9 | 6.2 | 34.1 | 0.0 | 3.9 | SNP | SNP |
| 307 | 65 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | Brendan O'Hara | 71,756 | 62.5 | 20.2 | 4.0 | 16.2 | 16.6 | 2.7 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 4.4 | SNP | SNP |
| 330 | 43 | Dumfries and Galloway | John Cooper | 78,541 | 58.3 | 29.0 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 19.2 | 5.4 | 28.7 | 0.0 | 3.3 | CON | CON |
| 359 | 13 | Perth and Kinross-shire | Pete Wishart | 77,261 | 64.8 | 28.8 | 3.5 | 7.6 | 15.1 | 2.5 | 38.9 | 0.0 | 3.7 | SNP | SNP |
| 365 | 7 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Graham Leadbitter | 77,072 | 60.4 | 29.1 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 16.6 | 6.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 3.5 | SNP | SNP |
| 367 | 5 | Angus and Perthshire Glens | Dave Doogan | 76,668 | 61.8 | 29.0 | 2.0 | 6.6 | 15.1 | 2.2 | 41.4 | 0.0 | 3.7 | SNP | SNP |
| 368 | 5 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | 71,900 | 61.5 | 33.4 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 18.4 | 6.1 | 25.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | CON | CON |
| 369 | 3 | Gordon and Buchan | Harriet Cross | 69,605 | 63.0 | 31.3 | 0.5 | 15.3 | 16.3 | 1.9 | 31.9 | 0.0 | 2.8 | CON | SNP |
| 369 | 3 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | Seamus Logan | 70,058 | 54.5 | 31.1 | 0.3 | 6.5 | 21.6 | 1.7 | 36.1 | 0.0 | 2.6 | SNP | SNP |
| 370 | 3 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Andrew Campbell Bowie | 72,994 | 67.1 | 34.3 | 1.5 | 12.0 | 15.2 | 4.2 | 29.6 | 0.0 | 3.2 | CON | CON |
| 372 | 1 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | John Lamont | 76,438 | 60.9 | 39.3 | 1.7 | 7.5 | 15.3 | 5.4 | 27.4 | 0.0 | 3.5 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.
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