Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CON | 30.6% | 30 | 29.7% | 19 | 0 | +19 | 49 |
LAB | 24.5% | 36 | 19.5% | 0 | 22 | -22 | 14 |
LIB | 21.9% | 24 | 19.4% | 0 | 4 | -4 | 20 |
Reform | 14.0% | 0 | 21.5% | 6 | 0 | +6 | 6 |
Green | 6.9% | 1 | 8.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
Other | 2.1% | 0 | 0.9% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Hove and Portslade' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Godalming and Ash', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to New Forest West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Oxford East (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
40 | 333 | Hove and Portslade | Peter Kyle | 74,063 | 70.1 | 14.7 | 43.0 | 8.6 | 13.8 | 19.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
42 | 331 | Oxford East | Anneliese Dodds | 71,845 | 54.8 | 14.8 | 42.0 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 17.1 | 5.0 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
71 | 301 | Brighton Pavilion | Siân Berry | 74,786 | 70.0 | 9.0 | 28.7 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 49.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | Green | Green |
83 | 290 | Portsmouth South | Stephen Morgan | 73,711 | 52.8 | 15.5 | 34.0 | 16.2 | 23.0 | 10.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
133 | 240 | Reading Central | Matt Rodda | 73,600 | 61.5 | 20.9 | 32.9 | 13.0 | 15.2 | 17.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
142 | 231 | Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven | Chris Ward | 68,784 | 59.2 | 20.2 | 30.9 | 14.5 | 10.9 | 22.9 | 0.0 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
144 | 229 | Canterbury | Rosie Duffield | 71,171 | 66.4 | 21.6 | 32.3 | 10.1 | 20.2 | 15.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
148 | 225 | Worthing East and Shoreham | Tom Rutland | 74,738 | 65.7 | 24.4 | 33.9 | 9.2 | 22.4 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
151 | 222 | Southampton Test | Satvir Kaur | 65,520 | 54.6 | 19.1 | 28.3 | 12.2 | 22.9 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 0.1 | LAB | LAB |
162 | 211 | Hastings and Rye | Helena Dollimore | 75,939 | 60.6 | 22.0 | 29.4 | 7.6 | 22.8 | 14.7 | 3.4 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
168 | 205 | Southampton Itchen | Darren Paffey | 68,379 | 55.7 | 23.4 | 30.2 | 9.2 | 25.8 | 11.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
172 | 201 | Milton Keynes Central | Emily Darlington | 81,078 | 58.9 | 25.6 | 31.6 | 10.4 | 20.9 | 11.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
182 | 191 | Milton Keynes North | Chris Curtis | 70,709 | 65.0 | 27.8 | 31.1 | 8.9 | 21.3 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
183 | 190 | Wycombe | Emma Reynolds | 73,846 | 60.4 | 26.5 | 28.4 | 11.3 | 18.7 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
186 | 187 | Banbury | Sean Woodcock | 73,193 | 65.8 | 29.2 | 30.2 | 10.8 | 21.1 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
188 | 184 | Oxford West and Abingdon | Layla Moran | 71,318 | 64.5 | 16.8 | 17.0 | 42.1 | 15.4 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
189 | 183 | Dover and Deal | Mike Tapp | 76,406 | 62.5 | 24.8 | 24.7 | 11.3 | 29.5 | 9.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | LAB | Reform |
194 | 178 | Thanet East | Polly Billington | 74,940 | 57.0 | 25.6 | 24.5 | 9.9 | 27.2 | 12.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
194 | 178 | Slough | Tan Dhesi | 81,512 | 53.1 | 21.7 | 20.5 | 6.8 | 18.6 | 6.3 | 26.1 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
196 | 177 | Aylesbury | Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith | 79,169 | 63.1 | 26.6 | 25.3 | 14.4 | 23.0 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
197 | 176 | Buckingham and Bletchley | Callum Anderson | 74,832 | 63.7 | 29.2 | 27.6 | 9.8 | 24.4 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
202 | 171 | Earley and Woodley | Yuan Yang | 73,548 | 62.4 | 33.0 | 30.9 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
204 | 169 | Basingstoke | Luke Murphy | 78,487 | 62.4 | 29.6 | 27.2 | 12.1 | 20.7 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
206 | 167 | Isle of Wight West | Richard Quigley | 55,406 | 61.9 | 28.5 | 25.6 | 11.6 | 25.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
207 | 166 | Aldershot | Alex Baker | 78,569 | 61.8 | 28.8 | 25.8 | 12.8 | 25.3 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
215 | 157 | Sussex Mid | Alison Bennett | 75,969 | 70.2 | 25.1 | 21.0 | 28.2 | 18.9 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
215 | 157 | Folkestone and Hythe | Tony Vaughan | 70,056 | 61.7 | 26.5 | 22.3 | 9.5 | 31.2 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | Reform |
221 | 152 | Worthing West | Beccy Cooper | 77,038 | 66.2 | 32.0 | 26.0 | 10.7 | 22.4 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
222 | 150 | Eastbourne | Josh Babarinde | 72,592 | 62.8 | 21.0 | 14.8 | 34.5 | 24.5 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
223 | 150 | Crawley | Peter Lamb | 75,569 | 60.4 | 28.8 | 22.5 | 8.6 | 25.2 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
227 | 145 | Didcot and Wantage | Olly Glover | 80,689 | 67.8 | 25.7 | 18.6 | 28.1 | 19.9 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
229 | 144 | Eastleigh | Liz Jarvis | 69,965 | 66.3 | 25.9 | 18.8 | 24.9 | 23.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LIB | CON |
230 | 142 | Lewes | James MacCleary | 76,166 | 69.8 | 22.5 | 15.2 | 35.4 | 21.2 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
239 | 134 | Ashford | Sojan Joseph | 76,212 | 61.6 | 29.1 | 21.2 | 10.3 | 28.2 | 10.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | CON |
244 | 129 | Gillingham and Rainham | Naushabah Khan | 73,523 | 56.0 | 30.7 | 22.3 | 9.3 | 28.9 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | CON |
245 | 128 | Reading West and Mid Berkshire | Olivia Bailey | 68,786 | 67.7 | 32.1 | 23.6 | 14.7 | 20.1 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
249 | 123 | Woking | Will Forster | 72,977 | 66.0 | 25.5 | 16.4 | 33.2 | 18.6 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
253 | 120 | Bracknell | Peter Swallow | 71,656 | 61.2 | 31.8 | 21.9 | 14.6 | 23.9 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
254 | 118 | Rochester and Strood | Lauren Rae Edwards | 74,257 | 57.4 | 30.1 | 20.1 | 7.4 | 31.6 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.1 | LAB | Reform |
254 | 118 | Guildford | Zöe Franklin | 70,734 | 68.3 | 26.1 | 15.7 | 33.4 | 17.4 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
255 | 118 | Maidstone and Malling | Helen Grant | 76,449 | 60.7 | 29.6 | 19.1 | 15.1 | 26.7 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
257 | 116 | Epsom and Ewell | Helen Maguire | 77,530 | 70.3 | 29.2 | 18.6 | 26.9 | 19.1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | CON |
259 | 113 | Chatham and Aylesford | Tristan Osborne | 75,109 | 54.4 | 30.1 | 19.2 | 8.1 | 31.5 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.2 | LAB | Reform |
260 | 112 | Winchester | Danny Chambers | 78,289 | 72.9 | 25.0 | 14.1 | 37.6 | 16.2 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
265 | 107 | Sittingbourne and Sheppey | Kevin McKenna | 79,067 | 51.9 | 30.2 | 18.5 | 8.9 | 32.6 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | Reform |
270 | 103 | Portsmouth North | Amanda Martin | 70,446 | 59.0 | 33.4 | 21.2 | 9.9 | 28.3 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | CON |
271 | 102 | Spelthorne | Lincoln Jopp | 73,782 | 62.6 | 30.5 | 18.3 | 18.1 | 25.8 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
276 | 96 | Bicester and Woodstock | Calum Alexander Miller | 74,350 | 67.5 | 28.0 | 15.3 | 32.4 | 17.6 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
277 | 96 | Reigate | Rebecca Paul | 77,101 | 68.9 | 33.9 | 21.1 | 14.8 | 19.9 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | CON | CON |
282 | 91 | Gravesham | Lauren Sullivan | 73,088 | 59.2 | 34.1 | 20.9 | 7.5 | 29.5 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
284 | 89 | Havant | Alan Mak | 72,346 | 58.3 | 30.9 | 17.6 | 8.5 | 30.6 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
286 | 87 | Dartford | Jim Dickson | 75,426 | 59.0 | 33.1 | 19.7 | 8.0 | 29.3 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
290 | 82 | Esher and Walton | Monica Harding | 74,042 | 72.8 | 27.6 | 13.8 | 36.6 | 16.7 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
292 | 81 | Isle of Wight East | Joe Robertson | 55,855 | 61.0 | 28.7 | 14.6 | 12.1 | 28.0 | 16.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
294 | 79 | Faversham and Mid Kent | Helen Whately | 74,301 | 62.7 | 32.7 | 18.4 | 10.6 | 28.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
294 | 78 | Tunbridge Wells | Mike Martin | 78,738 | 68.9 | 27.5 | 12.8 | 35.7 | 17.7 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
298 | 75 | Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | Ali Griffiths | 77,565 | 61.7 | 33.6 | 18.5 | 11.7 | 29.6 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
300 | 73 | Hampshire North West | Kit Malthouse | 78,629 | 64.6 | 35.0 | 19.9 | 14.7 | 22.7 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
302 | 71 | Bexhill and Battle | Kieran Mullan | 72,209 | 66.1 | 35.3 | 20.1 | 11.8 | 24.1 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | CON | CON |
307 | 65 | Chichester | Jessica Brown-Fuller | 78,374 | 66.3 | 25.7 | 9.3 | 37.9 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
314 | 59 | Surrey East | Claire Coutinho | 73,307 | 67.1 | 34.0 | 16.2 | 18.2 | 23.7 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
315 | 58 | Fareham and Waterlooville | Suella Braverman | 77,691 | 64.5 | 34.6 | 16.8 | 16.9 | 25.5 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
316 | 57 | Herne Bay and Sandwich | Roger Gale | 77,841 | 62.7 | 35.9 | 18.0 | 8.5 | 28.9 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
321 | 52 | Windsor | Jack Rankin | 73,334 | 61.7 | 35.5 | 16.9 | 20.5 | 18.2 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
322 | 51 | East Grinstead and Uckfield | Mims Davies | 75,385 | 66.8 | 37.5 | 18.6 | 20.7 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 0.0 | 0.6 | CON | CON |
322 | 50 | Dorking and Horley | Chris Coghlan | 71,850 | 69.5 | 29.3 | 10.0 | 33.9 | 20.5 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LIB | LIB |
324 | 49 | Farnham and Bordon | Gregory Stafford | 75,918 | 69.8 | 33.1 | 13.6 | 28.8 | 18.2 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
327 | 46 | New Forest West | Desmond Swayne | 68,644 | 67.5 | 36.3 | 16.5 | 15.9 | 23.9 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
328 | 44 | Witney | Charlie Maynard | 75,448 | 67.0 | 31.0 | 11.1 | 33.5 | 19.0 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
328 | 44 | Horsham | John Milne | 79,150 | 70.1 | 31.9 | 11.9 | 32.3 | 18.3 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
330 | 42 | Wokingham | Clive Jones | 75,082 | 71.9 | 30.5 | 10.1 | 38.5 | 15.4 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LIB | LIB |
332 | 41 | Runnymede and Weybridge | Ben Spencer | 73,610 | 65.6 | 36.3 | 15.8 | 21.0 | 20.7 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
334 | 39 | Sussex Weald | Nus Ghani | 72,897 | 67.5 | 34.7 | 14.1 | 17.6 | 24.6 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
337 | 35 | Henley and Thame | Freddie Van Mierlo | 73,749 | 72.1 | 31.1 | 10.0 | 37.2 | 16.1 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
339 | 34 | Hamble Valley | Paul Holmes | 80,537 | 67.1 | 35.5 | 14.2 | 22.0 | 22.3 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
340 | 33 | Gosport | Caroline Dinenage | 73,261 | 60.4 | 38.7 | 17.2 | 10.7 | 26.9 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
341 | 31 | Newbury | Lee Raymond James Dillon | 71,986 | 68.0 | 31.9 | 10.1 | 32.6 | 18.7 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
343 | 30 | New Forest East | Julian Lewis | 70,618 | 64.0 | 37.2 | 14.8 | 14.7 | 25.2 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
344 | 29 | Maidenhead | Joshua Peter Reynolds | 75,687 | 66.5 | 35.7 | 13.1 | 34.5 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LIB | CON |
346 | 26 | Surrey Heath | Al Pinkerton | 71,934 | 66.4 | 31.7 | 9.0 | 34.7 | 20.4 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LIB | LIB |
347 | 26 | Buckinghamshire Mid | Greg Smith | 75,415 | 71.5 | 37.5 | 14.5 | 21.1 | 19.9 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
349 | 23 | Chesham and Amersham | Sarah Green | 74,889 | 72.7 | 32.8 | 9.4 | 34.4 | 16.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
352 | 21 | Weald of Kent | Katie Jane Lotte Lam | 75,988 | 66.7 | 39.1 | 15.2 | 9.5 | 26.8 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
356 | 17 | Sevenoaks | Laura Trott | 73,708 | 67.7 | 36.6 | 11.7 | 20.7 | 25.2 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
357 | 16 | Beaconsfield | Joy Morrissey | 72,751 | 65.6 | 38.0 | 13.0 | 23.5 | 19.5 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
360 | 13 | Romsey and Southampton North | Caroline Nokes | 71,871 | 69.6 | 35.7 | 10.4 | 29.7 | 18.8 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | CON | CON |
362 | 11 | Hampshire East | Damian Hinds | 71,965 | 69.6 | 36.7 | 11.1 | 26.3 | 19.5 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
364 | 9 | Tonbridge | Tom Tugendhat | 72,799 | 69.1 | 39.6 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 21.5 | 14.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
365 | 8 | Arundel and South Downs | Andrew Griffith | 77,969 | 70.2 | 39.4 | 13.8 | 16.0 | 20.4 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
367 | 6 | Hampshire North East | Alex Brewer | 76,975 | 72.2 | 37.1 | 10.7 | 29.2 | 18.3 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | CON |
369 | 4 | Godalming and Ash | Jeremy Hunt | 74,168 | 73.7 | 38.2 | 8.1 | 33.6 | 16.2 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.