South East: Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	30.6%	30	31.3%	10	0	+10	40
LAB	24.5%	36	18.9%	0	12	-12	24
LIB	21.9%	24	22.7%	0	0	+0	24
Reform	14.0%	0	18.7%	2	0	+2	2
Green	6.9%	1	7.3%	0	0	+0	1
Other	2.1%	0	1.1%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Hove and Portslade' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Godalming and Ash', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Folkestone and Hythe (prediction: Reform), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Southampton Test (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
68	448	Hove and Portslade	Peter Kyle	74,063	70.1	13.7	46.5	7.1	15.6	14.9	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
88	428	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	71,845	54.8	13.2	43.7	10.2	8.6	13.7	6.1	4.5	LAB	LAB
122	394	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	73,711	52.8	15.2	42.5	13.4	19.7	8.4	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
172	344	Reading Central	Matt Rodda	73,600	61.5	20.4	41.7	9.6	13.3	14.6	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
181	335	Southampton Test	Satvir Kaur	65,520	54.6	19.1	38.6	9.9	19.4	10.5	2.2	0.4	LAB	LAB
212	304	Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven	Chris Ward	68,784	59.2	21.2	38.0	10.9	7.1	20.3	0.0	2.5	LAB	LAB
237	278	Brighton Pavilion	Siân Berry	74,786	70.0	8.2	21.8	3.9	10.2	55.4	0.0	0.5	Green	Green
240	276	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tom Rutland	74,738	65.7	26.3	39.1	7.3	19.5	7.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
243	273	Hastings and Rye	Helena Dollimore	75,939	60.6	23.4	35.7	6.4	20.6	12.9	0.8	0.2	LAB	LAB
247	269	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	71,171	66.4	23.6	35.4	8.9	18.9	12.9	0.0	0.2	LAB	LAB
252	264	Dover and Deal	Mike Tapp	76,406	62.5	22.5	33.7	6.4	29.2	7.0	0.2	1.1	LAB	LAB
259	257	Slough	Tan Dhesi	81,512	53.1	18.2	27.9	6.0	14.9	5.0	25.5	2.5	LAB	LAB
260	256	Thanet East	Polly Billington	74,940	57.0	24.3	34.0	4.1	25.4	11.2	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
261	255	Southampton Itchen	Darren Paffey	68,379	55.7	26.1	35.5	7.8	22.6	7.7	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
274	242	Milton Keynes Central	Emily Darlington	81,078	58.9	27.7	36.4	11.1	17.5	7.1	0.0	0.2	LAB	LAB
282	234	Basingstoke	Luke Murphy	78,487	62.4	30.1	36.8	7.3	17.7	7.7	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
296	220	Milton Keynes North	Chris Curtis	70,709	65.0	30.8	36.1	8.1	17.7	7.4	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
298	218	Aldershot	Alex Baker	78,569	61.8	29.6	34.8	9.1	21.4	4.8	0.0	0.2	LAB	LAB
303	213	Crawley	Peter Lamb	75,569	60.4	27.4	32.3	5.6	23.0	6.1	5.3	0.2	LAB	LAB
317	199	Wycombe	Emma Reynolds	73,846	60.4	26.6	30.0	10.7	17.5	5.5	7.5	2.3	LAB	LAB
319	197	Gillingham and Rainham	Naushabah Khan	73,523	56.0	28.8	31.9	6.3	26.3	6.1	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
325	191	Isle of Wight West	Richard Quigley	55,406	61.9	29.9	32.7	8.7	21.4	7.1	0.0	0.1	LAB	LAB
331	184	Folkestone and Hythe	Tony Vaughan	70,056	61.7	26.8	28.8	4.8	29.5	9.6	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
337	179	Worthing West	Beccy Cooper	77,038	66.2	33.1	34.3	6.1	19.4	6.8	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
342	174	Rochester and Strood	Lauren Rae Edwards	74,257	57.4	29.9	30.2	5.2	27.9	6.1	0.6	0.2	LAB	LAB
345	171	Banbury	Sean Woodcock	73,193	65.8	32.3	32.4	10.0	18.4	5.9	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
346	170	Gravesham	Lauren Sullivan	73,088	59.2	32.8	32.5	4.3	24.9	5.6	0.0	0.0	LAB	CON
356	160	Buckingham and Bletchley	Callum Anderson	74,832	63.7	32.5	31.0	9.8	20.4	5.9	0.0	0.4	LAB	CON
359	157	Chatham and Aylesford	Tristan Osborne	75,109	54.4	29.3	27.6	6.1	29.2	6.5	0.8	0.4	LAB	CON
365	151	Ashford	Sojan Joseph	76,212	61.6	29.4	26.5	6.2	27.1	9.8	0.0	1.1	LAB	CON
370	146	Reading West and Mid Berkshire	Olivia Bailey	68,786	67.7	32.7	29.0	11.8	18.5	7.3	0.0	0.7	LAB	CON
372	144	Dartford	Jim Dickson	75,426	59.0	32.5	28.6	5.6	25.7	7.5	0.0	0.0	LAB	CON
376	140	Portsmouth North	Amanda Martin	70,446	59.0	33.6	28.9	8.0	24.7	4.8	0.0	0.0	LAB	CON
381	135	Earley and Woodley	Yuan Yang	73,548	62.4	38.5	33.7	14.2	5.0	7.9	0.0	0.7	LAB	CON
383	133	Bracknell	Peter Swallow	71,656	61.2	32.6	27.8	11.7	21.9	5.4	0.0	0.6	LAB	CON
386	130	Aylesbury	Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith	79,169	63.1	29.5	24.2	21.7	17.9	5.6	1.0	0.1	LAB	CON
393	122	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Kevin McKenna	79,067	51.9	29.4	23.1	4.7	34.2	4.9	0.0	3.8	LAB	Reform
396	120	Havant	Alan Mak	72,346	58.3	31.4	24.6	8.5	27.9	7.2	0.5	0.0	CON	CON
413	103	Faversham and Mid Kent	Helen Whately	74,301	62.7	32.4	22.7	9.7	25.6	9.4	0.0	0.1	CON	CON
414	102	Spelthorne	Lincoln Jopp	73,782	62.6	31.0	21.0	19.6	22.5	5.6	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
416	100	Maidstone and Malling	Helen Grant	76,449	60.7	31.1	20.9	14.5	24.7	8.4	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
418	98	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Ali Griffiths	77,565	61.7	33.4	23.1	11.5	26.4	5.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
428	88	Herne Bay and Sandwich	Roger Gale	77,841	62.7	35.9	24.2	6.3	26.0	7.6	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
429	86	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	71,318	64.5	19.2	7.1	51.8	14.0	7.5	0.0	0.6	LIB	LIB
433	83	Reigate	Rebecca Paul	77,101	68.9	36.0	23.5	13.5	17.9	9.2	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
434	82	Bexhill and Battle	Kieran Mullan	72,209	66.1	34.9	22.4	8.6	24.2	6.9	0.0	3.0	CON	CON
438	78	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	78,629	64.6	35.6	22.5	15.8	19.9	5.8	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
452	63	Sussex Mid	Alison Bennett	75,969	70.2	27.8	11.7	40.4	15.7	4.2	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
469	47	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,644	67.5	36.1	17.4	18.5	21.1	6.5	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
470	46	Fareham and Waterlooville	Suella Braverman	77,691	64.5	35.7	17.0	19.8	22.8	4.5	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
471	45	Isle of Wight East	Joe Robertson	55,855	61.0	31.3	12.4	11.2	25.6	18.9	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
471	44	Bicester and Woodstock	Calum Alexander Miller	74,350	67.5	29.4	10.4	39.4	15.3	5.2	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
473	42	Didcot and Wantage	Olly Glover	80,689	67.8	29.0	8.7	40.6	16.1	5.3	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
474	42	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,261	60.4	40.9	20.6	10.0	23.0	4.8	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
478	38	Windsor	Jack Rankin	73,334	61.7	37.2	16.2	22.1	16.1	5.6	1.4	1.4	CON	CON
482	34	Surrey East	Claire Coutinho	73,307	67.1	36.3	14.5	18.9	22.6	6.5	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
483	32	Epsom and Ewell	Helen Maguire	77,530	70.3	31.8	9.3	38.8	15.7	3.6	0.0	0.7	LIB	LIB
483	32	Eastleigh	Liz Jarvis	69,965	66.3	31.7	9.1	35.2	18.0	5.6	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
483	32	Tunbridge Wells	Mike Martin	78,738	68.9	28.2	5.4	44.4	16.7	4.7	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
485	31	Weald of Kent	Katie Jane Lotte Lam	75,988	66.7	40.4	17.3	8.6	24.4	9.3	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
485	30	Eastbourne	Josh Babarinde	72,592	62.8	25.7	2.4	52.5	16.0	3.3	0.0	0.1	LIB	LIB
485	30	Woking	Will Forster	72,977	66.0	27.1	3.7	50.6	14.2	4.2	0.0	0.1	LIB	LIB
485	30	Chichester	Jessica Brown-Fuller	78,374	66.3	26.1	2.5	49.6	17.9	3.7	0.0	0.1	LIB	LIB
487	29	Sussex Weald	Nus Ghani	72,897	67.5	34.9	10.8	21.1	23.8	8.1	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
488	28	Runnymede and Weybridge	Ben Spencer	73,610	65.6	38.9	14.7	23.3	18.2	4.5	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
490	25	Lewes	James MacCleary	76,166	69.8	27.3	2.7	51.1	15.0	3.8	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
491	25	East Grinstead and Uckfield	Mims Davies	75,385	66.8	39.5	14.8	22.9	8.2	11.2	0.0	3.5	CON	CON
494	22	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	70,618	64.0	39.2	13.8	16.8	22.1	7.3	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
494	21	Winchester	Danny Chambers	78,289	72.9	28.6	2.1	52.9	11.0	5.0	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
496	20	Hamble Valley	Paul Holmes	80,537	67.1	37.0	10.3	28.3	19.6	4.7	0.0	0.1	CON	CON
497	19	Buckinghamshire Mid	Greg Smith	75,415	71.5	38.0	11.0	27.3	17.5	5.9	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
498	17	Guildford	Zöe Franklin	70,734	68.3	30.5	3.3	48.1	12.8	5.0	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
501	14	Dorking and Horley	Chris Coghlan	71,850	69.5	31.6	3.3	42.5	17.3	5.4	0.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
501	14	Esher and Walton	Monica Harding	74,042	72.8	30.6	2.1	53.0	11.3	2.8	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
502	14	Farnham and Bordon	Gregory Stafford	75,918	69.8	36.4	7.9	34.0	16.3	5.1	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
503	13	Tonbridge	Tom Tugendhat	72,799	69.1	41.5	12.6	9.3	20.2	15.6	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
504	12	Arundel and South Downs	Andrew Griffith	77,969	70.2	40.8	11.9	18.8	17.9	10.5	0.0	0.1	CON	CON
504	11	Witney	Charlie Maynard	75,448	67.0	33.2	3.8	42.0	16.9	3.7	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
505	11	Sevenoaks	Laura Trott	73,708	67.7	37.4	7.7	26.6	23.4	4.5	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
505	10	Wokingham	Clive Jones	75,082	71.9	32.6	2.7	48.2	12.6	3.9	0.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
506	9	Horsham	John Milne	79,150	70.1	35.1	4.8	39.8	15.7	4.3	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
507	9	Beaconsfield	Joy Morrissey	72,751	65.6	39.4	9.2	28.2	17.8	4.6	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
508	7	Surrey Heath	Al Pinkerton	71,934	66.4	33.3	2.7	45.3	16.0	2.7	0.0	0.1	LIB	LIB
509	6	Henley and Thame	Freddie Van Mierlo	73,749	72.1	33.7	2.7	45.6	13.3	4.1	0.0	0.6	LIB	LIB
510	5	Chesham and Amersham	Sarah Green	74,889	72.7	35.2	2.6	45.3	12.6	3.3	0.9	0.1	LIB	LIB
510	5	Newbury	Lee Raymond James Dillon	71,986	68.0	35.8	3.0	40.7	14.4	5.8	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
510	5	Maidenhead	Joshua Peter Reynolds	75,687	66.5	38.4	5.5	44.5	5.8	4.5	0.0	1.3	LIB	LIB
511	5	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	71,965	69.6	37.6	4.0	35.2	17.6	5.2	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
511	4	Hampshire North East	Alex Brewer	76,975	72.2	37.6	3.7	38.9	16.4	3.0	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
514	2	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	71,871	69.6	40.3	3.8	36.1	15.5	4.1	0.0	0.1	CON	CON
515	1	Godalming and Ash	Jeremy Hunt	74,168	73.7	42.9	2.0	41.4	11.1	2.5	0.0	0.1	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.