South East: Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 30.6%30 29.7%190+1949
LAB 24.5%36 19.5%022-2214
LIB 21.9%24 19.4%04-420
Reform 14.0%0 21.5%60+66
Green 6.9%1 8.9%00+01
Other 2.1%0 0.9%10+11

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Hove and Portslade' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Godalming and Ash', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to New Forest West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Oxford East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
40333Hove and Portslade Peter Kyle74,06370.114.743.08.613.819.50.00.4LABLAB
42331Oxford East Anneliese Dodds71,84554.814.842.011.29.417.15.00.5LABLAB
71301Brighton Pavilion Siân Berry74,78670.09.028.74.38.549.30.00.2GreenGreen
83290Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan73,71152.815.534.016.223.010.90.00.4LABLAB
133240Reading Central Matt Rodda73,60061.520.932.913.015.217.80.00.2LABLAB
142231Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Chris Ward68,78459.220.230.914.510.922.90.00.6LABLAB
144229Canterbury Rosie Duffield71,17166.421.632.310.120.215.50.00.2LABLAB
148225Worthing East and Shoreham Tom Rutland74,73865.724.433.99.222.49.90.00.3LABLAB
151222Southampton Test Satvir Kaur65,52054.619.128.312.222.912.45.00.1LABLAB
162211Hastings and Rye Helena Dollimore75,93960.622.029.47.622.814.73.40.2LABLAB
168205Southampton Itchen Darren Paffey68,37955.723.430.29.225.811.10.00.3LABLAB
172201Milton Keynes Central Emily Darlington81,07858.925.631.610.420.911.30.00.2LABLAB
182191Milton Keynes North Chris Curtis70,70965.027.831.18.921.310.70.00.2LABLAB
183190Wycombe Emma Reynolds73,84660.426.528.411.318.77.96.70.3LABLAB
186187Banbury Sean Woodcock73,19365.829.230.210.821.18.40.00.3LABLAB
188184Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran71,31864.516.817.042.115.48.50.00.2LIBLIB
189183Dover and Deal Mike Tapp76,40662.524.824.711.329.59.00.40.3LABReform
194178Thanet East Polly Billington74,94057.025.624.59.927.212.40.00.4LABReform
194178Slough Tan Dhesi81,51253.121.720.56.818.66.326.10.0LABMIN
196177Aylesbury Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith79,16963.126.625.314.423.07.43.20.0LABCON
197176Buckingham and Bletchley Callum Anderson74,83263.729.227.69.824.48.70.00.2LABCON
202171Earley and Woodley Yuan Yang73,54862.433.030.913.012.110.80.00.2LABCON
204169Basingstoke Luke Murphy78,48762.429.627.212.120.710.20.00.2LABCON
206167Isle of Wight West Richard Quigley55,40661.928.525.611.625.58.50.00.2LABCON
207166Aldershot Alex Baker78,56961.828.825.812.825.37.20.00.2LABCON
215157Sussex Mid Alison Bennett75,96970.225.121.028.218.96.60.00.2LIBLIB
215157Folkestone and Hythe Tony Vaughan70,05661.726.522.39.531.210.20.00.3LABReform
221152Worthing West Beccy Cooper77,03866.232.026.010.722.48.70.00.2LABCON
222150Eastbourne Josh Babarinde72,59262.821.014.834.524.54.90.00.3LIBLIB
223150Crawley Peter Lamb75,56960.428.822.58.625.28.36.50.0LABCON
227145Didcot and Wantage Olly Glover80,68967.825.718.628.119.97.60.00.2LIBLIB
229144Eastleigh Liz Jarvis69,96566.325.918.824.923.07.10.00.3LIBCON
230142Lewes James MacCleary76,16669.822.515.235.421.25.50.00.2LIBLIB
239134Ashford Sojan Joseph76,21261.629.121.210.328.210.90.00.3LABCON
244129Gillingham and Rainham Naushabah Khan73,52356.030.722.39.328.98.40.00.3LABCON
245128Reading West and Mid Berkshire Olivia Bailey68,78667.732.123.614.720.19.30.00.2LABCON
249123Woking Will Forster72,97766.025.516.433.218.66.20.00.2LIBLIB
253120Bracknell Peter Swallow71,65661.231.821.914.623.97.50.00.2LABCON
254118Rochester and Strood Lauren Rae Edwards74,25757.430.120.17.431.67.82.80.1LABReform
254118Guildford Zöe Franklin70,73468.326.115.733.417.47.20.00.2LIBLIB
255118Maidstone and Malling Helen Grant76,44960.729.619.115.126.79.20.00.2CONCON
257116Epsom and Ewell Helen Maguire77,53070.329.218.626.919.16.00.00.2LIBCON
259113Chatham and Aylesford Tristan Osborne75,10954.430.119.28.131.58.22.60.2LABReform
260112Winchester Danny Chambers78,28972.925.014.137.616.26.90.00.2LIBLIB
265107Sittingbourne and Sheppey Kevin McKenna79,06751.930.218.58.932.66.60.03.2LABReform
270103Portsmouth North Amanda Martin70,44659.033.421.29.928.36.90.00.3LABCON
271102Spelthorne Lincoln Jopp73,78262.630.518.318.125.87.00.00.2CONCON
27696Bicester and Woodstock Calum Alexander Miller74,35067.528.015.332.417.66.50.00.2LIBLIB
27796Reigate Rebecca Paul77,10168.933.921.114.819.910.30.00.1CONCON
28291Gravesham Lauren Sullivan73,08859.234.120.97.529.57.80.00.2LABCON
28489Havant Alan Mak72,34658.330.917.68.530.67.64.70.0CONCON
28687Dartford Jim Dickson75,42659.033.119.78.029.39.80.00.2LABCON
29082Esher and Walton Monica Harding74,04272.827.613.836.616.75.20.00.2LIBLIB
29281Isle of Wight East Joe Robertson55,85561.028.714.612.128.016.30.00.3CONCON
29479Faversham and Mid Kent Helen Whately74,30162.732.718.410.628.010.00.00.2CONCON
29478Tunbridge Wells Mike Martin78,73868.927.512.835.717.76.10.00.2LIBLIB
29875Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Ali Griffiths77,56561.733.618.511.729.66.20.00.3CONCON
30073Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse78,62964.635.019.914.722.77.50.00.2CONCON
30271Bexhill and Battle Kieran Mullan72,20966.135.320.111.824.18.10.00.6CONCON
30765Chichester Jessica Brown-Fuller78,37466.325.79.337.922.05.00.00.2LIBLIB
31459Surrey East Claire Coutinho73,30767.134.016.218.223.77.60.00.3CONCON
31558Fareham and Waterlooville Suella Braverman77,69164.534.616.816.925.55.90.00.3CONCON
31657Herne Bay and Sandwich Roger Gale77,84162.735.918.08.528.98.40.00.2CONCON
32152Windsor Jack Rankin73,33461.735.516.920.518.27.11.50.2CONCON
32251East Grinstead and Uckfield Mims Davies75,38566.837.518.620.711.011.60.00.6CONCON
32250Dorking and Horley Chris Coghlan71,85069.529.310.033.920.56.20.00.1LIBLIB
32449Farnham and Bordon Gregory Stafford75,91869.833.113.628.818.26.10.00.2CONCON
32746New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,64467.536.316.515.923.97.20.00.2CONCON
32844Witney Charlie Maynard75,44867.031.011.133.519.05.10.00.2LIBLIB
32844Horsham John Milne79,15070.131.911.932.318.35.50.00.2LIBLIB
33042Wokingham Clive Jones75,08271.930.510.138.515.45.30.00.1LIBLIB
33241Runnymede and Weybridge Ben Spencer73,61065.636.315.821.020.76.00.00.2CONCON
33439Sussex Weald Nus Ghani72,89767.534.714.117.624.68.70.00.3CONCON
33735Henley and Thame Freddie Van Mierlo73,74972.131.110.037.216.15.30.00.2LIBLIB
33934Hamble Valley Paul Holmes80,53767.135.514.222.022.35.80.00.2CONCON
34033Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,26160.438.717.210.726.96.30.00.3CONCON
34131Newbury Lee Raymond James Dillon71,98668.031.910.132.618.76.50.00.2LIBLIB
34330New Forest East Julian Lewis70,61864.037.214.814.725.27.80.00.3CONCON
34429Maidenhead Joshua Peter Reynolds75,68766.535.713.134.510.45.90.00.3LIBCON
34626Surrey Heath Al Pinkerton71,93466.431.79.034.720.44.10.00.1LIBLIB
34726Buckinghamshire Mid Greg Smith75,41571.537.514.521.119.96.80.00.2CONCON
34923Chesham and Amersham Sarah Green74,88972.732.89.434.416.54.82.10.0LIBLIB
35221Weald of Kent Katie Jane Lotte Lam75,98866.739.115.29.526.89.20.00.2CONCON
35617Sevenoaks Laura Trott73,70867.736.611.720.725.25.60.00.2CONCON
35716Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey72,75165.638.013.023.519.55.80.00.2CONCON
36013Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes71,87169.635.710.429.718.85.20.00.1CONCON
36211Hampshire East Damian Hinds71,96569.636.711.126.319.56.10.00.2CONCON
3649Tonbridge Tom Tugendhat72,79969.139.614.010.021.514.60.00.3CONCON
3658Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith77,96970.239.413.816.020.410.30.00.2CONCON
3676Hampshire North East Alex Brewer76,97572.237.110.729.218.34.50.00.2LIBCON
3694Godalming and Ash Jeremy Hunt74,16873.738.28.133.616.23.80.00.1CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.