South East: Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	30.6%	30	28.6%	18	3	+15	45
LAB	24.5%	36	20.2%	0	20	-20	16
LIB	21.9%	24	18.8%	0	8	-8	16
Reform	14.0%	0	22.3%	13	0	+13	13
Green	6.9%	1	9.0%	0	0	+0	1
Other	2.1%	0	1.1%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Hove and Portslade' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Godalming and Ash', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Farnham and Bordon (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Hove and Portslade (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
22	334	Hove and Portslade	Peter Kyle	74,063	70.1	13.2	43.3	10.7	12.1	18.8	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
34	322	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	71,845	54.8	14.0	40.4	13.3	8.2	17.0	4.6	2.4	LAB	LAB
71	285	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	73,711	52.8	16.7	36.8	14.0	20.7	10.7	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
95	261	Reading Central	Matt Rodda	73,600	61.5	20.1	38.0	11.7	13.5	15.9	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
100	255	Brighton Pavilion	Siân Berry	74,786	70.0	9.1	26.1	7.7	7.2	49.2	0.0	0.7	Green	Green
104	252	Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven	Chris Ward	68,784	59.2	19.6	35.7	12.9	10.6	19.4	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
112	244	Southampton Test	Satvir Kaur	65,520	54.6	19.1	33.4	11.3	21.2	11.7	2.9	0.4	LAB	LAB
140	216	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	71,171	66.4	21.8	31.3	11.0	21.7	13.7	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
144	212	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tom Rutland	74,738	65.7	24.5	33.5	9.5	22.9	8.8	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
152	204	Hastings and Rye	Helena Dollimore	75,939	60.6	21.4	29.6	8.7	25.5	13.1	1.5	0.3	LAB	LAB
168	188	Slough	Tan Dhesi	81,512	53.1	21.5	28.1	8.4	15.7	7.0	17.8	1.4	LAB	LAB
173	183	Southampton Itchen	Darren Paffey	68,379	55.7	23.3	29.1	9.4	27.8	9.8	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
175	181	Milton Keynes Central	Emily Darlington	81,078	58.9	25.5	30.9	11.6	21.7	9.7	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
178	177	Dover and Deal	Mike Tapp	76,406	62.5	23.1	27.8	8.6	31.5	8.2	0.2	0.7	LAB	Reform
181	175	Milton Keynes North	Chris Curtis	70,709	65.0	26.7	31.0	9.7	23.1	9.1	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
188	168	Banbury	Sean Woodcock	73,193	65.8	26.7	29.6	11.6	23.6	7.7	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
191	164	Thanet East	Polly Billington	74,940	57.0	25.0	27.0	7.4	28.0	11.7	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
193	163	Wycombe	Emma Reynolds	73,846	60.4	25.7	27.5	12.9	19.7	7.8	5.3	1.2	LAB	LAB
197	159	Basingstoke	Luke Murphy	78,487	62.4	28.8	29.7	9.3	21.9	9.8	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
202	154	Buckingham and Bletchley	Callum Anderson	74,832	63.7	27.7	27.5	11.1	25.6	7.5	0.0	0.6	LAB	CON
202	153	Isle of Wight West	Richard Quigley	55,406	61.9	27.2	27.0	9.8	27.6	8.1	0.0	0.3	LAB	Reform
206	150	Aldershot	Alex Baker	78,569	61.8	29.2	28.3	9.9	24.7	7.5	0.0	0.4	LAB	CON
210	146	Crawley	Peter Lamb	75,569	60.4	27.5	26.1	7.4	26.6	8.5	3.8	0.1	LAB	CON
210	145	Folkestone and Hythe	Tony Vaughan	70,056	61.7	25.7	24.3	7.4	32.2	9.9	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
216	139	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	71,318	64.5	19.8	17.5	38.4	13.8	9.7	0.0	0.9	LIB	LIB
217	139	Aylesbury	Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith	79,169	63.1	26.3	23.9	16.7	23.7	7.5	1.8	0.1	LAB	CON
219	137	Worthing West	Beccy Cooper	77,038	66.2	31.4	28.7	8.4	22.4	8.7	0.0	0.5	LAB	CON
222	134	Reading West and Mid Berkshire	Olivia Bailey	68,786	67.7	29.7	26.4	12.4	22.1	8.8	0.0	0.6	LAB	CON
223	133	Earley and Woodley	Yuan Yang	73,548	62.4	33.0	29.7	14.2	12.9	9.6	0.0	0.7	LAB	CON
224	131	Gillingham and Rainham	Naushabah Khan	73,523	56.0	28.2	24.3	8.8	29.3	8.7	0.0	0.7	LAB	Reform
224	131	Ashford	Sojan Joseph	76,212	61.6	27.8	23.8	8.2	29.4	10.1	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
228	127	Rochester and Strood	Lauren Rae Edwards	74,257	57.4	27.0	22.5	7.6	33.5	8.1	1.0	0.2	LAB	Reform
236	119	Chatham and Aylesford	Tristan Osborne	75,109	54.4	27.7	21.6	8.1	32.5	8.6	1.1	0.4	LAB	Reform
236	119	Gravesham	Lauren Sullivan	73,088	59.2	29.9	23.7	7.4	30.6	8.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
241	114	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Kevin McKenna	79,067	51.9	27.5	20.7	8.2	34.9	6.7	0.0	2.1	LAB	Reform
242	114	Bracknell	Peter Swallow	71,656	61.2	31.3	24.3	12.0	24.2	7.6	0.0	0.6	LAB	CON
250	105	Sussex Mid	Alison Bennett	75,969	70.2	26.0	18.1	29.8	18.8	6.8	0.0	0.6	LIB	LIB
252	104	Dartford	Jim Dickson	75,426	59.0	30.3	22.3	7.8	29.6	9.6	0.0	0.4	LAB	CON
253	103	Portsmouth North	Amanda Martin	70,446	59.0	30.7	22.7	9.4	29.2	7.6	0.0	0.4	LAB	CON
262	94	Maidstone and Malling	Helen Grant	76,449	60.7	29.5	20.6	12.7	27.3	9.5	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
264	91	Faversham and Mid Kent	Helen Whately	74,301	62.7	28.9	19.7	10.7	29.9	10.3	0.0	0.4	CON	Reform
265	91	Bexhill and Battle	Kieran Mullan	72,209	66.1	30.9	21.6	11.2	26.7	7.9	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
265	90	Didcot and Wantage	Olly Glover	80,689	67.8	25.4	16.0	29.6	21.3	7.2	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
266	89	Havant	Alan Mak	72,346	58.3	29.1	19.6	9.5	31.3	8.8	1.7	0.0	CON	Reform
267	89	Spelthorne	Lincoln Jopp	73,782	62.6	30.7	20.6	15.5	25.2	7.6	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
270	86	Reigate	Rebecca Paul	77,101	68.9	33.5	23.0	12.8	19.8	10.6	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
271	85	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	78,629	64.6	31.2	20.7	14.9	24.5	8.3	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
276	80	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Ali Griffiths	77,565	61.7	31.0	19.9	11.6	29.6	7.2	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
278	77	Bicester and Woodstock	Calum Alexander Miller	74,350	67.5	27.6	16.2	28.6	19.8	7.4	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
280	76	Herne Bay and Sandwich	Roger Gale	77,841	62.7	32.0	20.4	8.5	29.9	8.8	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
292	64	Epsom and Ewell	Helen Maguire	77,530	70.3	29.3	16.6	28.9	18.2	6.2	0.0	0.8	LIB	CON
295	60	Isle of Wight East	Joe Robertson	55,855	61.0	28.5	15.3	10.7	29.5	15.4	0.0	0.5	CON	Reform
296	60	Eastleigh	Liz Jarvis	69,965	66.3	29.0	15.8	25.4	21.8	7.2	0.0	0.7	LIB	CON
297	58	Woking	Will Forster	72,977	66.0	26.3	12.9	35.6	17.5	7.2	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
297	58	Tunbridge Wells	Mike Martin	78,738	68.9	27.0	13.4	32.2	19.8	7.2	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
299	56	Lewes	James MacCleary	76,166	69.8	25.7	11.3	35.9	20.6	5.9	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
300	56	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,644	67.5	32.2	17.7	16.6	25.1	7.8	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
301	54	Eastbourne	Josh Babarinde	72,592	62.8	25.0	10.4	35.0	23.1	6.0	0.0	0.6	LIB	LIB
301	54	Winchester	Danny Chambers	78,289	72.9	25.3	10.6	39.5	16.9	7.2	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
302	54	Surrey East	Claire Coutinho	73,307	67.1	32.7	18.0	15.8	25.1	7.6	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
303	53	East Grinstead and Uckfield	Mims Davies	75,385	66.8	33.7	18.9	20.6	13.3	11.6	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
304	52	Weald of Kent	Katie Jane Lotte Lam	75,988	66.7	32.2	17.3	10.2	30.7	9.3	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
304	51	Guildford	Zöe Franklin	70,734	68.3	27.4	12.3	35.2	16.9	7.7	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
305	51	Fareham and Waterlooville	Suella Braverman	77,691	64.5	32.6	17.3	16.9	25.9	6.7	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
310	46	Windsor	Jack Rankin	73,334	61.7	34.7	18.8	18.4	18.5	7.8	1.0	0.8	CON	CON
311	45	Sussex Weald	Nus Ghani	72,897	67.5	31.2	14.9	18.0	26.1	8.9	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
314	41	Chichester	Jessica Brown-Fuller	78,374	66.3	26.5	9.8	34.0	23.3	6.0	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
315	41	Buckinghamshire Mid	Greg Smith	75,415	71.5	31.7	15.0	23.0	22.5	7.4	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
318	38	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,261	60.4	35.8	18.6	10.6	27.4	6.9	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
318	37	Esher and Walton	Monica Harding	74,042	72.8	28.3	10.8	38.7	15.6	6.1	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
322	34	Runnymede and Weybridge	Ben Spencer	73,610	65.6	35.5	17.8	18.6	20.7	6.8	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
323	33	Arundel and South Downs	Andrew Griffith	77,969	70.2	33.0	14.9	17.3	24.1	10.4	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
323	32	Witney	Charlie Maynard	75,448	67.0	30.1	12.0	30.1	21.5	5.9	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
324	32	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	70,618	64.0	33.8	15.6	15.0	26.7	8.2	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
327	29	Farnham and Bordon	Gregory Stafford	75,918	69.8	33.3	14.4	25.7	19.2	7.0	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
328	28	Tonbridge	Tom Tugendhat	72,799	69.1	34.3	15.3	10.6	24.6	14.5	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
329	26	Henley and Thame	Freddie Van Mierlo	73,749	72.1	30.0	10.7	33.8	19.0	6.0	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
329	26	Dorking and Horley	Chris Coghlan	71,850	69.5	30.2	10.8	30.3	21.4	7.1	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
330	26	Horsham	John Milne	79,150	70.1	32.2	12.8	28.5	19.8	6.3	0.0	0.4	LIB	CON
333	23	Hamble Valley	Paul Holmes	80,537	67.1	34.1	14.3	22.0	22.0	7.2	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
334	22	Sevenoaks	Laura Trott	73,708	67.7	32.2	12.3	21.7	26.9	6.4	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
338	17	Wokingham	Clive Jones	75,082	71.9	31.5	11.0	34.5	16.2	6.5	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
340	16	Maidenhead	Joshua Peter Reynolds	75,687	66.5	35.4	14.3	31.2	11.3	7.0	0.0	0.8	LIB	CON
343	13	Newbury	Lee Raymond James Dillon	71,986	68.0	32.5	10.6	29.0	20.0	7.6	0.0	0.4	LIB	CON
344	12	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	71,965	69.6	33.0	11.1	27.4	20.9	7.1	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
345	11	Hampshire North East	Alex Brewer	76,975	72.2	33.1	10.9	30.2	19.6	5.7	0.0	0.5	LIB	CON
346	10	Beaconsfield	Joy Morrissey	72,751	65.6	37.2	14.8	21.7	19.3	6.4	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
347	9	Surrey Heath	Al Pinkerton	71,934	66.4	32.6	10.1	31.2	20.6	5.4	0.0	0.3	LIB	CON
348	8	Chesham and Amersham	Sarah Green	74,889	72.7	33.4	10.6	31.5	17.1	6.1	1.3	0.1	LIB	CON
349	7	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	71,871	69.6	35.2	11.4	26.4	20.7	6.1	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
353	3	Godalming and Ash	Jeremy Hunt	74,168	73.7	37.9	9.0	30.4	17.4	4.9	0.0	0.3	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.