| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 21.8% | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 14.8% | 0 | 17 | -17 | 7 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 20.4% | 0 | 3 | -3 | 19 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 27.6% | 21 | 0 | +21 | 21 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 12.1% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 3.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Bristol Central' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Cornwall North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Wiltshire East (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 341 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 6.7 | 16.4 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 58.6 | 8.6 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 51 | 334 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 15.2 | 28.4 | 10.4 | 17.6 | 22.6 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 67 | 317 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 14.1 | 21.2 | 8.1 | 13.3 | 36.1 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 73 | 312 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 5.7 | 43.9 | 2.1 | 38.2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 83 | 302 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 18.5 | 29.3 | 9.8 | 25.3 | 13.4 | 3.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 92 | 293 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 19.2 | 26.5 | 14.8 | 23.9 | 11.9 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 93 | 292 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 15.3 | 25.3 | 9.7 | 22.8 | 20.9 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 94 | 291 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 20.2 | 26.8 | 11.5 | 24.9 | 13.1 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 96 | 288 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 15.7 | 16.6 | 28.1 | 15.0 | 19.9 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 109 | 276 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 14.7 | 24.1 | 7.3 | 24.0 | 23.8 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 128 | 256 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 26.4 | 20.3 | 15.2 | 23.2 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 131 | 254 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 21.1 | 25.5 | 8.4 | 28.8 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 132 | 252 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 12.0 | 21.2 | 7.8 | 24.8 | 27.7 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 151 | 234 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 25.5 | 21.2 | 11.2 | 27.8 | 11.1 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 154 | 230 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 27.5 | 4.9 | 46.9 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 165 | 220 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 23.1 | 20.8 | 10.5 | 28.7 | 12.7 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 166 | 218 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 31.9 | 2.8 | 49.2 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 171 | 213 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 26.6 | 15.4 | 21.5 | 24.4 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 186 | 198 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 30.3 | 7.0 | 37.8 | 17.1 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 196 | 188 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 29.5 | 16.2 | 14.3 | 27.7 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 208 | 177 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 21.9 | 21.3 | 9.1 | 34.3 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 211 | 174 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 18.0 | 21.9 | 12.8 | 35.2 | 9.7 | 2.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 216 | 169 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 22.5 | 17.8 | 11.5 | 31.6 | 12.7 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 219 | 166 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 24.5 | 15.4 | 17.2 | 29.4 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 226 | 158 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 26.0 | 8.0 | 33.2 | 22.6 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 233 | 152 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 27.7 | 16.4 | 11.9 | 31.4 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 237 | 148 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 21.8 | 19.1 | 11.1 | 34.2 | 10.6 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 240 | 145 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 26.2 | 11.1 | 23.1 | 26.4 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 241 | 144 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 27.3 | 16.4 | 10.3 | 31.7 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 264 | 121 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 21.7 | 16.9 | 16.1 | 34.7 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 264 | 120 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 23.9 | 8.0 | 28.4 | 25.9 | 10.9 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 265 | 119 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 22.5 | 8.1 | 31.6 | 26.2 | 9.1 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 266 | 119 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 23.9 | 13.0 | 19.5 | 31.4 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 267 | 117 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 24.9 | 8.0 | 29.9 | 26.5 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 267 | 117 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 23.0 | 9.1 | 29.9 | 27.8 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 279 | 105 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 24.8 | 6.8 | 30.6 | 26.7 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 280 | 105 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 22.8 | 10.5 | 23.1 | 30.5 | 10.2 | 3.0 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 282 | 102 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 13.7 | 6.8 | 42.4 | 26.9 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 288 | 96 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 23.5 | 6.4 | 33.1 | 26.8 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 294 | 91 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 7.8 | 40.7 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 296 | 88 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 33.7 | 12.2 | 10.2 | 33.5 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 297 | 87 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 37.2 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 33.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 306 | 79 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 31.5 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 35.1 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 308 | 77 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 23.2 | 7.7 | 27.6 | 30.4 | 8.8 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 309 | 76 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 27.5 | 6.9 | 26.7 | 29.6 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 316 | 68 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 13.7 | 6.3 | 41.6 | 29.8 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 329 | 55 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 39.6 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 33.5 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 342 | 42 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 18.2 | 5.6 | 34.5 | 31.8 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 343 | 41 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 37.1 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 35.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 346 | 39 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 23.4 | 13.7 | 11.2 | 41.0 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 348 | 37 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 22.1 | 6.6 | 26.6 | 33.9 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 352 | 32 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 43.4 | 32.9 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 354 | 30 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 43.6 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 34.5 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 355 | 29 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 16.8 | 4.9 | 34.5 | 33.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 356 | 29 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 24.6 | 11.2 | 13.5 | 40.5 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 373 | 11 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 51.2 | 36.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 376 | 8 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 50.1 | 38.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 378 | 6 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 47.2 | 39.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.