| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 22.1% | 4 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 16.3% | 0 | 19 | -19 | 5 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 20.0% | 0 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 26.9% | 22 | 0 | +22 | 22 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 11.2% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 3.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Bristol North West' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Christchurch', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Christchurch (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 296 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 12.2 | 29.5 | 9.8 | 20.1 | 24.7 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 53 | 286 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 21.6 | 28.6 | 10.6 | 20.4 | 15.1 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 59 | 279 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 3.2 | 15.8 | 3.5 | 8.4 | 67.2 | 0.0 | 1.8 | Green | Green |
| 61 | 277 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 8.8 | 23.5 | 6.5 | 16.3 | 40.8 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | Green |
| 70 | 269 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 14.8 | 33.7 | 6.7 | 27.4 | 13.8 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 93 | 246 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 4.8 | 43.0 | 1.8 | 39.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 3.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 109 | 230 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 19.6 | 25.9 | 14.0 | 23.7 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 132 | 207 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 18.7 | 29.3 | 7.9 | 29.5 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 133 | 206 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 11.9 | 25.1 | 8.9 | 25.5 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 134 | 204 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 14.4 | 15.5 | 29.4 | 16.1 | 20.4 | 0.8 | 3.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 139 | 200 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 11.0 | 25.6 | 6.4 | 26.8 | 25.6 | 0.0 | 4.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 158 | 181 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 13.2 | 32.8 | 7.8 | 36.0 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 159 | 179 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 9.2 | 22.8 | 7.0 | 26.1 | 30.7 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | Green |
| 160 | 178 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 26.4 | 21.9 | 11.8 | 25.5 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 164 | 175 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 13.4 | 26.3 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 2.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 168 | 170 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 29.5 | 19.2 | 18.4 | 23.3 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 | CON | CON |
| 187 | 152 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 20.2 | 22.0 | 11.4 | 28.4 | 14.6 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 203 | 135 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 34.4 | 1.7 | 48.8 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 208 | 131 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 25.4 | 23.8 | 6.5 | 32.7 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 219 | 120 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 22.2 | 17.6 | 20.7 | 27.4 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 2.9 | CON | Reform |
| 220 | 119 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 22.2 | 18.4 | 13.4 | 28.3 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 221 | 118 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 20.6 | 19.0 | 13.8 | 29.0 | 14.6 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 224 | 114 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 39.0 | 2.1 | 42.1 | 12.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 229 | 110 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 20.8 | 20.9 | 12.7 | 31.8 | 10.9 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 230 | 108 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 36.5 | 4.5 | 37.3 | 15.6 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 236 | 102 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 30.6 | 5.4 | 41.0 | 16.9 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 240 | 98 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 20.8 | 10.8 | 34.0 | 22.9 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 260 | 79 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 22.0 | 17.5 | 17.8 | 31.0 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 264 | 74 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 35.6 | 15.3 | 10.3 | 29.3 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 3.3 | CON | CON |
| 265 | 73 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 21.2 | 10.0 | 34.6 | 24.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 267 | 72 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 19.7 | 19.1 | 18.5 | 33.5 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 267 | 71 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 22.8 | 8.5 | 36.4 | 22.9 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 267 | 71 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 16.0 | 11.6 | 30.3 | 25.9 | 11.9 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 269 | 69 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 30.0 | 9.9 | 26.9 | 24.9 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LIB | CON |
| 269 | 69 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 20.7 | 9.5 | 34.7 | 24.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 270 | 69 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 18.5 | 20.3 | 13.7 | 35.5 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 270 | 68 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 33.4 | 12.2 | 16.7 | 27.6 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 3.5 | CON | CON |
| 271 | 67 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 29.9 | 9.8 | 26.7 | 25.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LIB | CON |
| 273 | 65 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 22.3 | 8.9 | 33.2 | 24.7 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 276 | 62 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 26.1 | 9.7 | 29.4 | 26.1 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 278 | 61 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 23.7 | 19.6 | 7.2 | 36.1 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 281 | 57 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 18.1 | 8.5 | 39.1 | 25.5 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 285 | 53 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 22.3 | 8.1 | 34.7 | 26.0 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 287 | 52 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 19.4 | 20.9 | 8.5 | 39.3 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 291 | 48 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 27.5 | 9.9 | 25.4 | 29.3 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | CON | Reform |
| 296 | 43 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 27.0 | 9.5 | 24.9 | 30.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LIB | Reform |
| 297 | 42 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 27.4 | 8.3 | 27.9 | 29.0 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LIB | Reform |
| 300 | 39 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 31.7 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 35.2 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | CON | Reform |
| 302 | 36 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 40.9 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 33.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 3.2 | CON | CON |
| 310 | 28 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 42.3 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 35.1 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 3.3 | CON | CON |
| 310 | 28 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 42.6 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 34.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 3.6 | CON | CON |
| 312 | 26 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 42.0 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 35.2 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | CON |
| 312 | 26 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 16.1 | 8.4 | 33.7 | 33.6 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 318 | 21 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 36.0 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 36.6 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 3.2 | CON | Reform |
| 321 | 17 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 42.1 | 33.9 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 323 | 15 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 12.5 | 3.7 | 40.0 | 34.6 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 325 | 13 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 47.0 | 35.2 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 327 | 12 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 39.4 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 39.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3.6 | CON | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.