South West: Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	28.2%	11	26.7%	12	1	+11	22
LAB	24.5%	24	20.0%	0	12	-12	12
LIB	24.7%	22	22.0%	0	2	-2	20
Reform	13.8%	0	21.4%	3	0	+3	3
Green	7.4%	1	9.3%	0	0	+0	1
Other	1.4%	0	0.5%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Bristol Central' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Dorset North', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Melksham and Devizes (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol Central (prediction: Green).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
50	322	Bristol Central	Carla Denyer	62,735	69.1	5.7	30.0	4.5	5.5	54.2	0.0	0.1	Green	Green
60	313	Bristol East	Kerry McCarthy	75,917	60.7	14.4	36.3	7.8	9.6	31.5	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
81	292	Bristol North West	Darren Jones	74,869	64.7	15.8	34.7	13.5	15.6	20.0	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
94	279	Bristol South	Karin Smyth	75,533	57.5	13.3	29.8	11.0	19.8	25.7	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
106	267	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Luke Pollard	75,313	55.9	17.8	32.2	11.6	24.9	11.2	1.9	0.4	LAB	LAB
108	265	Exeter	Steve Race	67,840	59.2	17.2	31.3	14.9	18.2	17.9	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
117	256	Bristol North East	Damien Egan	70,076	59.9	17.1	30.5	10.8	20.1	21.0	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
138	235	Truro and Falmouth	Jayne Kirkham	73,082	68.8	22.8	34.2	13.4	19.3	10.1	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
141	232	Stroud	Simon Joseph Opher	77,912	70.9	24.5	35.3	8.7	17.3	13.8	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
143	230	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Claire Hazelgrove	77,584	64.9	23.8	34.5	9.3	20.3	11.9	0.0	0.2	LAB	LAB
150	223	Camborne and Redruth	Perran Moon	74,402	64.2	22.4	31.6	10.8	25.8	9.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
161	212	Swindon South	Heidi Alexander	72,596	61.7	26.5	34.0	7.7	22.0	9.5	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
167	205	Bath	Wera Hobhouse	69,655	69.1	14.3	21.3	36.8	13.6	12.9	0.7	0.4	LIB	LIB
170	203	Bournemouth East	Tom Hayes	72,354	62.1	25.8	32.0	9.8	22.5	9.4	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
192	181	Exmouth and Exeter East	David George Reed	79,983	64.2	26.4	26.0	17.2	22.6	7.4	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
203	170	Weston-super-Mare	Dan Aldridge	71,396	59.4	27.3	24.9	13.1	26.1	8.3	0.0	0.3	LAB	CON
205	168	Bournemouth West	Jessica Toale	70,259	56.1	27.0	24.1	14.3	24.8	9.4	0.0	0.3	LAB	CON
208	164	St Austell and Newquay	Noah Law	76,140	61.4	26.9	23.7	14.3	27.8	6.9	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
210	163	Somerset North East and Hanham	Dan Norris	73,887	69.2	30.0	26.6	12.8	21.2	9.1	0.0	0.2	LAB	CON
214	158	Frome and East Somerset	Anna Sabine	70,378	66.4	22.0	18.1	25.6	21.8	12.2	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
216	157	Cornwall South East	Anna Gelderd	72,728	67.8	27.2	22.5	18.2	25.9	5.9	0.0	0.2	LAB	CON
219	153	Plymouth Moor View	Fred Thomas	74,724	57.4	29.3	24.2	9.0	30.1	7.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
220	152	St Ives	Andrew George	69,980	68.7	20.3	14.9	36.0	22.8	5.6	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
224	149	Gloucester	Alex McIntyre	79,475	57.5	28.8	22.4	13.2	24.1	7.8	3.6	0.2	LAB	CON
227	146	Swindon North	Will Stone	73,238	60.3	31.7	24.8	10.2	24.8	8.3	0.0	0.3	LAB	CON
233	139	Taunton and Wellington	Gideon Amos	78,116	64.4	21.9	14.6	32.3	25.3	5.6	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
238	135	Devon Central	Mel Stride	75,385	70.9	30.5	22.8	17.6	20.8	8.1	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
240	133	Somerset North	Sadik Al-Hassan	74,426	72.2	32.3	24.4	15.7	17.1	8.0	2.5	0.0	LAB	CON
248	125	Dorset South	Lloyd Hatton	75,924	64.6	30.0	21.2	17.6	24.2	6.7	0.0	0.3	LAB	CON
249	124	Poole	Neil John Duncan-Jordan	72,509	61.4	30.8	22.0	15.2	24.5	7.1	0.0	0.3	LAB	CON
255	117	Bridgwater	Ashley Fox	71,571	56.1	28.3	17.8	16.3	30.1	5.7	1.6	0.2	CON	Reform
260	113	Forest of Dean	Matt Bishop	72,052	66.7	32.6	21.7	10.2	24.2	11.2	0.0	0.2	LAB	CON
261	111	Newton Abbot	Martin Wrigley	73,885	65.0	25.9	14.8	28.1	24.8	5.9	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
264	108	Yeovil	Adam Dance	79,700	61.4	21.8	10.4	37.8	24.3	5.5	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
269	103	Cheltenham	Max Wilkinson	76,143	65.1	27.6	15.5	36.0	12.4	8.2	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
272	101	Salisbury	John Glen	71,553	70.1	32.5	20.3	22.8	17.9	6.2	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
274	98	Wells and Mendip Hills	Tessa Munt	72,051	69.9	24.2	11.6	38.3	20.0	5.6	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
279	94	Wiltshire South West	Andrew Murrison	72,809	63.4	32.1	19.2	16.8	25.0	6.7	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
295	78	Torridge and Tavistock	Geoffrey Cox	74,727	68.0	31.3	16.6	19.9	25.9	6.0	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
295	77	Cornwall North	Ben Maguire	76,832	67.8	24.2	9.4	38.0	24.4	3.8	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
296	77	Devon South West	Rebecca Smith	77,600	67.3	35.0	20.2	12.5	24.4	7.5	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
303	69	Devon North	Ian Roome	79,079	65.0	25.5	10.2	34.4	24.2	5.4	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
304	68	Chippenham	Sarah Gibson	73,876	67.0	26.5	11.0	37.0	19.9	5.3	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
308	64	Glastonbury and Somerton	Sarah Joanne Dyke	72,982	65.3	26.4	9.6	34.2	23.3	6.2	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
308	64	Torbay	Steve Darling	76,179	60.5	25.5	8.6	30.5	27.8	3.8	3.9	0.0	LIB	LIB
312	61	Wiltshire East	Danny Kruger	73,878	63.9	35.5	18.2	15.8	24.4	5.9	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
312	60	Thornbury and Yate	Claire Young	78,195	68.2	28.8	11.4	33.0	21.5	5.1	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
312	60	Tewkesbury	Cameron Thomas	73,458	66.1	28.3	10.7	34.0	19.9	6.9	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
320	53	Cotswolds North	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	72,513	69.3	33.0	14.6	25.1	19.4	7.7	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
325	47	Devon South	Caroline Voaden	70,755	69.3	29.0	9.3	36.6	20.2	4.6	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
330	42	Melksham and Devizes	Brian Mathew	71,999	71.1	30.9	10.4	32.6	20.5	5.5	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
336	37	Tiverton and Minehead	Rachel Gilmour	71,843	66.1	31.2	10.4	28.2	24.2	5.8	0.0	0.2	LIB	CON
339	33	Honiton and Sidmouth	Richard Foord	75,537	67.1	30.6	9.2	35.0	20.6	4.3	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
340	32	Cotswolds South	Roz Savage	71,971	72.7	31.8	10.1	36.2	17.1	4.5	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
341	31	Dorset West	Edward Morello	75,998	69.2	32.0	10.0	41.4	10.9	5.4	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
348	25	Christchurch	Christopher Chope	71,064	66.6	36.6	13.4	17.5	26.5	5.5	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
353	20	Dorset Mid and North Poole	Vikki Slade	75,294	65.8	36.5	11.8	32.4	13.1	5.8	0.0	0.3	LIB	CON
363	10	Dorset North	Simon Hoare	72,690	68.3	35.5	9.9	25.0	24.0	5.3	0.0	0.3	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.