| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 21.7% | 1 | 9 | -8 | 3 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 15.5% | 0 | 22 | -22 | 2 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 20.0% | 0 | 3 | -3 | 19 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 27.3% | 30 | 0 | +30 | 30 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 13.5% | 3 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 2.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Bristol Central' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Yeovil', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bridgwater (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 347 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 6.6 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 65.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | Green | Green |
| 59 | 329 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 17.4 | 29.6 | 8.3 | 27.2 | 14.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 60 | 327 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 12.3 | 24.6 | 11.7 | 22.3 | 26.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | LAB | Green |
| 62 | 325 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 12.9 | 17.8 | 10.5 | 16.6 | 37.8 | 2.8 | 1.6 | LAB | Green |
| 64 | 324 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 16.4 | 28.3 | 11.4 | 27.3 | 14.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 69 | 319 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 18.1 | 29.2 | 7.0 | 29.2 | 14.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 69 | 318 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 14.0 | 15.4 | 31.1 | 15.7 | 21.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 71 | 317 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 19.9 | 24.6 | 13.3 | 25.0 | 15.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 87 | 301 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 12.8 | 26.7 | 11.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 101 | 286 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 33.2 | 2.4 | 51.0 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 102 | 286 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 23.1 | 22.0 | 11.0 | 27.1 | 14.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 106 | 281 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 27.7 | 19.5 | 13.6 | 25.3 | 12.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | LAB | CON |
| 111 | 277 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 12.9 | 21.5 | 8.8 | 27.5 | 26.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 125 | 262 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 35.4 | 2.3 | 48.5 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 126 | 261 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 34.2 | 7.7 | 36.8 | 14.8 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 141 | 247 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 24.1 | 16.7 | 23.2 | 25.1 | 9.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | CON | Reform |
| 147 | 241 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 12.5 | 20.3 | 7.0 | 29.1 | 27.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 153 | 235 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 23.3 | 17.7 | 19.4 | 27.0 | 11.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | CON | Reform |
| 157 | 231 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 23.0 | 19.7 | 16.4 | 29.3 | 9.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | CON | Reform |
| 160 | 227 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 10.4 | 18.9 | 7.9 | 28.7 | 31.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | LAB | Green |
| 163 | 225 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 19.7 | 22.2 | 8.2 | 32.0 | 15.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 170 | 218 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 22.4 | 18.6 | 13.1 | 29.6 | 14.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 172 | 216 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 21.8 | 20.6 | 11.2 | 31.7 | 13.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 175 | 213 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 22.7 | 19.4 | 13.0 | 30.6 | 11.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 179 | 209 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 25.4 | 18.6 | 12.3 | 30.0 | 12.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 182 | 205 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 23.9 | 9.7 | 33.2 | 21.7 | 10.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 188 | 200 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 12.2 | 22.5 | 6.1 | 35.0 | 21.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 192 | 196 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 25.5 | 17.9 | 15.3 | 31.0 | 8.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 197 | 190 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 24.2 | 9.8 | 34.2 | 23.3 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 198 | 189 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 20.3 | 10.2 | 34.4 | 23.9 | 8.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 200 | 188 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 19.2 | 22.0 | 7.7 | 35.7 | 12.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 200 | 187 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 25.7 | 9.0 | 30.6 | 22.8 | 10.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 209 | 179 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 25.6 | 12.3 | 24.1 | 26.7 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | CON | Reform |
| 231 | 156 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 20.5 | 9.2 | 33.1 | 25.1 | 10.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 232 | 155 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 22.8 | 10.8 | 29.7 | 26.8 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 237 | 151 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 23.0 | 19.3 | 11.4 | 35.5 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 239 | 149 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 24.1 | 12.3 | 23.6 | 28.6 | 9.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | LIB | Reform |
| 241 | 146 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 23.1 | 8.5 | 33.1 | 25.1 | 8.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 242 | 146 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 28.1 | 15.7 | 8.6 | 32.3 | 13.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 248 | 139 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 16.8 | 9.6 | 31.7 | 26.7 | 12.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 248 | 139 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 23.7 | 9.4 | 31.0 | 26.5 | 7.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 257 | 131 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 19.8 | 21.3 | 6.5 | 39.0 | 11.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 259 | 128 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 24.4 | 8.1 | 30.3 | 26.1 | 9.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 263 | 124 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 21.9 | 7.7 | 35.2 | 26.2 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 265 | 122 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 23.1 | 8.6 | 31.2 | 27.4 | 8.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 267 | 121 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 27.2 | 9.2 | 27.3 | 28.2 | 6.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | CON | Reform |
| 288 | 100 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 30.3 | 15.1 | 9.2 | 35.7 | 7.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | CON | Reform |
| 301 | 87 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 24.9 | 7.9 | 28.3 | 30.0 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | LIB | Reform |
| 304 | 83 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 15.4 | 6.9 | 39.4 | 29.3 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 312 | 75 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 42.9 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 32.7 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 313 | 75 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 22.3 | 9.0 | 27.4 | 32.1 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | LIB | Reform |
| 320 | 68 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 32.8 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 35.9 | 7.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | CON | Reform |
| 325 | 62 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 21.6 | 6.6 | 31.8 | 30.8 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 331 | 57 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 19.7 | 13.9 | 16.9 | 38.7 | 8.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | CON | Reform |
| 337 | 51 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 30.6 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 36.3 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | CON | Reform |
| 340 | 48 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 34.1 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 37.4 | 9.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 365 | 22 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 43.3 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 37.0 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | CON | CON |
| 370 | 17 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 51.1 | 35.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.