| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 20.8% | 3 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 14.4% | 0 | 20 | -20 | 4 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 20.0% | 0 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 27.5% | 22 | 0 | +22 | 22 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 13.4% | 4 | 0 | +4 | 5 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 3.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Bristol North West' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Cornwall North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Cornwall North (prediction: LIB), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 289 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 10.8 | 27.3 | 9.9 | 20.7 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 45 | 283 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 2.5 | 14.1 | 3.3 | 8.5 | 69.5 | 0.0 | 2.1 | Green | Green |
| 48 | 281 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 20.1 | 26.4 | 10.6 | 21.1 | 17.4 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 54 | 274 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 7.4 | 21.3 | 6.5 | 16.9 | 43.1 | 0.0 | 4.7 | LAB | Green |
| 66 | 263 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 15.4 | 28.6 | 7.8 | 26.2 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 79 | 250 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 17.0 | 26.3 | 12.8 | 25.5 | 14.7 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 113 | 216 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 19.2 | 25.1 | 8.9 | 28.3 | 15.2 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 114 | 214 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 29.4 | 16.7 | 22.7 | 0.8 | 3.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 114 | 214 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 10.5 | 22.9 | 9.0 | 26.3 | 26.8 | 0.0 | 4.6 | LAB | Green |
| 124 | 204 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 9.5 | 23.2 | 6.5 | 27.6 | 27.9 | 0.0 | 5.4 | LAB | Green |
| 126 | 203 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 9.5 | 29.4 | 5.5 | 34.0 | 14.8 | 2.4 | 4.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 127 | 202 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 25.4 | 20.7 | 11.7 | 25.4 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 134 | 195 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 13.7 | 28.8 | 9.0 | 34.8 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 137 | 192 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 22.2 | 20.6 | 13.3 | 26.8 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 157 | 171 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 29.8 | 16.4 | 17.5 | 24.3 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 4.0 | CON | CON |
| 171 | 158 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 18.8 | 19.9 | 11.4 | 29.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 175 | 153 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 31.0 | 2.9 | 44.7 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 191 | 137 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 6.6 | 17.0 | 5.7 | 28.1 | 37.7 | 0.0 | 4.8 | LAB | Green |
| 195 | 134 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 24.0 | 21.6 | 6.5 | 33.4 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 197 | 132 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 21.0 | 16.8 | 13.3 | 28.6 | 14.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 203 | 126 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 20.8 | 15.7 | 20.6 | 27.9 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 3.3 | CON | Reform |
| 205 | 124 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 19.2 | 17.0 | 13.8 | 29.5 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 206 | 122 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 35.1 | 3.6 | 38.4 | 16.2 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 2.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 206 | 122 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 34.4 | 4.4 | 36.0 | 17.2 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 210 | 119 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 19.4 | 19.0 | 12.7 | 32.3 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 217 | 111 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 26.8 | 6.0 | 37.3 | 20.4 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 2.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 229 | 99 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 19.5 | 8.4 | 34.0 | 23.7 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 4.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 239 | 90 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 20.7 | 15.6 | 17.8 | 31.5 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 242 | 87 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 18.5 | 17.4 | 18.4 | 33.8 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 243 | 85 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 21.5 | 6.8 | 36.3 | 23.3 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 244 | 84 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 19.8 | 7.9 | 34.5 | 24.7 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 248 | 80 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 28.7 | 8.1 | 26.9 | 25.4 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LIB | CON |
| 248 | 80 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 36.3 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 30.2 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 3.8 | CON | CON |
| 250 | 79 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 17.2 | 18.4 | 13.7 | 36.0 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 252 | 76 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 28.6 | 8.0 | 26.7 | 25.9 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LIB | CON |
| 254 | 74 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 33.1 | 25.1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 255 | 73 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 33.4 | 9.9 | 15.8 | 28.5 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 4.1 | CON | CON |
| 255 | 73 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 24.7 | 7.7 | 29.4 | 26.7 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 256 | 73 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 22.4 | 17.6 | 7.2 | 36.7 | 12.3 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 267 | 61 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 20.3 | 5.9 | 35.6 | 26.9 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 268 | 61 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 18.1 | 18.9 | 8.5 | 39.9 | 11.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 269 | 59 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 16.2 | 6.0 | 38.4 | 27.3 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 4.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 272 | 57 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 26.2 | 8.1 | 25.5 | 30.0 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 4.0 | CON | Reform |
| 275 | 54 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 26.2 | 6.7 | 28.0 | 29.7 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LIB | Reform |
| 276 | 53 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 25.7 | 7.6 | 25.0 | 30.7 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LIB | Reform |
| 280 | 48 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 39.6 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 33.9 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | CON | CON |
| 280 | 48 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 45.1 | 29.1 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 281 | 48 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 31.3 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 36.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 3.7 | CON | Reform |
| 281 | 47 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 41.5 | 30.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 5.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 289 | 40 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 30.9 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 36.4 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 3.6 | CON | Reform |
| 290 | 38 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 41.0 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 35.6 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 3.8 | CON | CON |
| 290 | 38 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 41.2 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 34.9 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | CON | CON |
| 291 | 37 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 40.6 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 35.8 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | CON |
| 306 | 22 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 38.6 | 36.4 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 311 | 18 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 34.6 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 39.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | CON | Reform |
| 315 | 13 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 9.3 | 2.2 | 43.0 | 36.2 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 317 | 11 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 47.4 | 37.2 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 320 | 8 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 50.7 | 37.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.