| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 25.1% | 9 | 2 | +7 | 18 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 20.1% | 1 | 12 | -11 | 13 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 22.7% | 0 | 2 | -2 | 20 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 23.4% | 6 | 0 | +6 | 6 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 8.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Bristol Central' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Dorset North', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dorset North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol Central (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 266 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 4.9 | 30.1 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 53.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 59 | 262 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 12.7 | 36.4 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 30.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 75 | 246 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 14.3 | 34.9 | 14.2 | 17.5 | 19.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 87 | 234 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 11.5 | 29.9 | 11.8 | 22.1 | 24.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 100 | 221 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 16.0 | 32.3 | 12.5 | 27.4 | 10.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 101 | 220 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 15.4 | 31.5 | 15.7 | 20.7 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 106 | 215 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 15.1 | 30.6 | 11.8 | 22.8 | 19.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 126 | 195 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 21.1 | 34.3 | 14.1 | 21.3 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 131 | 190 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 23.0 | 35.5 | 9.4 | 19.2 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 133 | 188 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 22.3 | 34.7 | 9.9 | 22.1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 139 | 182 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 20.6 | 31.7 | 11.6 | 28.2 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 149 | 172 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 24.9 | 34.2 | 8.4 | 24.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 150 | 170 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 12.6 | 21.4 | 37.6 | 15.9 | 11.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 156 | 165 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 23.9 | 32.1 | 10.7 | 25.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 173 | 148 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 24.7 | 26.1 | 18.0 | 24.9 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 181 | 139 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 25.8 | 25.1 | 13.7 | 28.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 182 | 138 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 25.4 | 24.3 | 15.0 | 26.8 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 183 | 137 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 25.2 | 23.8 | 15.0 | 30.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 185 | 136 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 28.5 | 26.7 | 13.4 | 23.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 187 | 133 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 20.3 | 18.2 | 26.4 | 24.1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 189 | 131 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 25.7 | 22.6 | 18.8 | 27.6 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 189 | 131 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 27.6 | 24.3 | 9.8 | 32.3 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 190 | 130 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 18.6 | 15.0 | 36.7 | 24.9 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 195 | 126 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 27.3 | 22.6 | 13.7 | 25.8 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 200 | 121 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 30.2 | 24.9 | 10.8 | 26.7 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 201 | 119 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 20.4 | 14.7 | 32.9 | 27.1 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 207 | 114 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 29.1 | 22.9 | 18.1 | 22.5 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 209 | 112 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 31.3 | 24.6 | 16.0 | 18.0 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 211 | 110 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 29.2 | 22.1 | 15.9 | 26.6 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 212 | 109 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 28.4 | 21.3 | 18.2 | 26.1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 217 | 103 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 26.8 | 17.9 | 16.8 | 31.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 219 | 101 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 24.1 | 14.9 | 28.9 | 27.3 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 221 | 100 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 31.1 | 21.8 | 10.8 | 25.9 | 10.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 223 | 97 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 20.2 | 10.4 | 38.4 | 26.2 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 225 | 95 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 26.0 | 15.6 | 36.6 | 14.4 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 228 | 93 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 31.1 | 20.4 | 23.4 | 19.6 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 232 | 88 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 22.5 | 11.6 | 39.0 | 22.2 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 234 | 87 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 30.5 | 19.3 | 17.4 | 27.0 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 247 | 74 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 29.8 | 16.7 | 20.5 | 27.8 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 248 | 73 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 33.5 | 20.3 | 13.1 | 26.4 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 248 | 72 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 22.8 | 9.5 | 38.5 | 26.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 252 | 68 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 24.0 | 10.3 | 35.0 | 26.1 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 254 | 66 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 25.1 | 11.1 | 37.5 | 21.6 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 257 | 63 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 25.1 | 9.8 | 34.7 | 24.9 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 260 | 60 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 24.4 | 8.7 | 30.8 | 28.7 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 261 | 60 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 34.0 | 18.3 | 16.4 | 26.2 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 261 | 59 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 27.4 | 11.5 | 33.5 | 23.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 261 | 59 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 26.9 | 10.9 | 34.6 | 21.5 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 270 | 51 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 31.6 | 14.7 | 25.6 | 21.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 276 | 44 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 27.6 | 9.4 | 37.1 | 21.8 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 283 | 37 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 29.5 | 10.6 | 33.1 | 21.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 285 | 36 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 29.8 | 10.5 | 28.7 | 26.0 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 288 | 32 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 29.1 | 9.3 | 35.5 | 22.4 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 288 | 32 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 30.4 | 10.2 | 36.7 | 18.7 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 290 | 30 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 30.5 | 10.1 | 41.9 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 295 | 26 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 34.8 | 13.4 | 18.3 | 29.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 301 | 20 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 34.9 | 11.9 | 33.0 | 15.2 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 310 | 11 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 34.0 | 10.0 | 25.6 | 25.8 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.