| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 25.4% | 9 | 0 | +9 | 20 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 21.1% | 0 | 6 | -6 | 18 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 17.4% | 0 | 5 | -5 | 17 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 21.3% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 8.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 6.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Bristol East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Christchurch', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bath (prediction: LIB), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Bristol Central (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 367 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 7.5 | 40.3 | 1.0 | 8.3 | 36.8 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 72 | 350 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 4.2 | 33.1 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 54.7 | 3.7 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 108 | 315 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 14.6 | 39.0 | 6.1 | 14.7 | 18.4 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 131 | 291 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 36.3 | 31.4 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 139 | 284 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 22.0 | 38.6 | 4.2 | 18.7 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 152 | 271 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 9.1 | 35.0 | 2.6 | 16.3 | 27.4 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 153 | 270 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 19.5 | 37.8 | 4.5 | 19.1 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 157 | 266 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 15.1 | 35.4 | 5.7 | 17.3 | 17.8 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 159 | 264 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 13.2 | 35.0 | 3.2 | 17.1 | 22.3 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 167 | 256 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 14.2 | 38.0 | 3.2 | 20.7 | 12.9 | 10.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 190 | 233 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 21.5 | 35.2 | 6.2 | 19.8 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 253 | 170 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 25.3 | 32.0 | 6.5 | 21.0 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 255 | 167 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 34.2 | 24.3 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 264 | 159 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 28.2 | 31.3 | 7.3 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 272 | 151 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 22.4 | 31.7 | 9.3 | 21.8 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 274 | 148 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 32.4 | 25.4 | 11.1 | 15.7 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 323 | 99 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 28.6 | 27.3 | 10.0 | 21.6 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 328 | 94 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 21.5 | 18.9 | 31.0 | 13.5 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 330 | 93 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 24.0 | 29.8 | 4.4 | 24.7 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 331 | 92 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 21.7 | 31.7 | 3.9 | 26.9 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 333 | 90 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 24.4 | 29.3 | 7.0 | 24.7 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 343 | 80 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 26.7 | 27.4 | 8.6 | 23.8 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 345 | 78 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 25.3 | 27.2 | 8.8 | 23.8 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 351 | 71 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 31.4 | 22.7 | 9.7 | 19.8 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 357 | 65 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 32.0 | 17.5 | 18.7 | 16.2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 358 | 65 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 22.3 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 27.0 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 368 | 54 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 32.0 | 19.5 | 11.9 | 19.8 | 5.7 | 11.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 370 | 52 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 27.5 | 21.4 | 10.1 | 21.8 | 6.5 | 12.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 371 | 51 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 26.5 | 24.9 | 11.5 | 25.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 373 | 49 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 27.5 | 22.4 | 10.4 | 23.4 | 6.8 | 9.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 373 | 49 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 26.7 | 24.9 | 10.3 | 26.1 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 376 | 47 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 26.3 | 25.6 | 6.5 | 26.9 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 391 | 32 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 24.8 | 25.1 | 5.4 | 28.4 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 394 | 28 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 22.5 | 17.5 | 23.2 | 21.5 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 396 | 26 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 29.3 | 17.2 | 16.7 | 21.7 | 5.0 | 10.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 405 | 17 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 37.0 | 2.2 | 46.5 | 9.1 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 406 | 16 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 38.4 | 2.4 | 44.9 | 9.4 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 408 | 14 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 36.2 | 4.4 | 41.9 | 11.6 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 408 | 14 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 41.3 | 2.2 | 41.9 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 411 | 11 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 25.6 | 12.4 | 31.2 | 21.3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 413 | 9 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 28.3 | 14.3 | 25.0 | 24.0 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 413 | 9 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 30.9 | 8.1 | 36.2 | 18.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 413 | 9 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 33.1 | 6.8 | 36.7 | 16.7 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 413 | 9 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 34.3 | 7.9 | 32.1 | 18.1 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 413 | 9 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 30.8 | 8.9 | 33.0 | 19.1 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 414 | 8 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 34.6 | 7.1 | 33.0 | 17.9 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 414 | 8 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 24.2 | 11.2 | 31.7 | 23.2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 414 | 8 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 33.9 | 12.5 | 15.0 | 24.5 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 415 | 7 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 28.5 | 9.9 | 31.1 | 22.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 416 | 6 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 29.9 | 10.7 | 28.3 | 23.2 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 416 | 6 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 23.0 | 9.7 | 36.2 | 22.9 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 417 | 5 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 35.7 | 15.7 | 7.3 | 29.3 | 3.9 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 417 | 5 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 23.8 | 10.4 | 31.4 | 24.6 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 417 | 5 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 29.5 | 8.7 | 31.2 | 23.1 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 417 | 5 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 26.6 | 8.8 | 34.2 | 23.3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 417 | 5 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 27.9 | 10.7 | 26.7 | 25.4 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 417 | 5 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 27.8 | 10.4 | 28.5 | 25.1 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 419 | 3 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 47.1 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 29.6 | 2.9 | 8.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.