| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 20.6% | 1 | 8 | -7 | 4 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 15.0% | 0 | 18 | -18 | 6 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 19.9% | 0 | 3 | -3 | 19 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 28.7% | 26 | 0 | +26 | 26 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 12.6% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 3.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Bristol Central' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Cornwall North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Tiverton and Minehead (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Filton and Bradley Stoke (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 367 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 5.7 | 16.5 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 59.0 | 8.6 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 55 | 359 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 14.1 | 28.5 | 9.9 | 18.7 | 23.1 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 69 | 344 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 12.8 | 21.3 | 7.6 | 14.4 | 36.8 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 72 | 342 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 12.1 | 37.6 | 6.0 | 31.3 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 75 | 339 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 5.2 | 44.0 | 1.9 | 38.6 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 78 | 336 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 13.6 | 34.3 | 10.2 | 29.4 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 86 | 328 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 14.7 | 33.6 | 8.0 | 30.2 | 10.1 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 97 | 317 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 14.1 | 25.4 | 9.2 | 23.9 | 21.5 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 98 | 315 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 14.5 | 16.7 | 27.6 | 16.1 | 20.4 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 112 | 302 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 13.3 | 24.2 | 6.7 | 25.1 | 24.6 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 132 | 282 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 17.8 | 28.1 | 6.9 | 31.8 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 134 | 279 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 25.3 | 20.4 | 14.7 | 24.3 | 11.6 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 137 | 276 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 10.8 | 21.3 | 7.3 | 25.9 | 28.3 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 157 | 257 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 24.3 | 21.3 | 10.7 | 28.9 | 11.6 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 161 | 252 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 23.5 | 8.1 | 40.0 | 16.2 | 10.5 | 1.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 172 | 242 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 21.7 | 20.9 | 9.9 | 29.8 | 13.4 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 176 | 237 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 27.9 | 5.6 | 43.3 | 15.0 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 181 | 233 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 24.2 | 18.3 | 15.9 | 28.0 | 10.7 | 2.9 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 181 | 232 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 25.5 | 15.5 | 21.1 | 25.5 | 9.6 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 196 | 217 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 26.2 | 10.1 | 32.0 | 21.5 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 213 | 201 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 23.0 | 18.2 | 12.9 | 31.8 | 10.6 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 219 | 195 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 20.7 | 21.4 | 8.6 | 35.4 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 223 | 191 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 22.7 | 18.2 | 11.0 | 32.2 | 12.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 224 | 190 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 16.7 | 22.4 | 12.1 | 36.5 | 9.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 227 | 187 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 22.1 | 16.0 | 17.4 | 30.3 | 10.9 | 3.3 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 232 | 182 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 21.3 | 17.9 | 11.0 | 32.7 | 13.2 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 240 | 173 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 24.9 | 8.1 | 32.8 | 23.7 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 250 | 164 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 20.6 | 19.2 | 10.6 | 35.3 | 11.1 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 252 | 162 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 25.1 | 11.2 | 22.6 | 27.5 | 11.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 278 | 136 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 20.6 | 17.0 | 15.6 | 35.7 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 278 | 135 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 22.8 | 8.1 | 27.9 | 27.0 | 11.3 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 282 | 132 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 22.7 | 13.1 | 19.0 | 32.5 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 283 | 130 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 23.8 | 8.1 | 29.5 | 27.6 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 286 | 128 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 28.5 | 14.2 | 11.7 | 33.8 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 287 | 127 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 32.2 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 33.5 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 300 | 114 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 26.8 | 14.8 | 7.6 | 35.6 | 11.9 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 301 | 112 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 23.6 | 6.9 | 30.1 | 27.8 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 306 | 108 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 21.5 | 10.6 | 22.6 | 31.6 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 316 | 97 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 18.9 | 7.1 | 34.2 | 28.9 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 318 | 96 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 18.4 | 19.8 | 7.3 | 41.8 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 325 | 88 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 21.1 | 6.0 | 34.1 | 28.8 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 332 | 82 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 22.1 | 7.8 | 27.1 | 31.5 | 9.1 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 333 | 81 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 26.5 | 6.9 | 26.2 | 30.7 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 339 | 74 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 36.6 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 34.2 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 357 | 57 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 34.1 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 36.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 359 | 55 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 19.7 | 15.0 | 11.9 | 41.6 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 360 | 53 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 16.0 | 6.3 | 36.7 | 33.0 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 369 | 44 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 50.0 | 31.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 376 | 38 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 20.8 | 6.6 | 26.4 | 35.2 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 381 | 33 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 21.7 | 12.0 | 14.1 | 41.2 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 382 | 31 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 42.4 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 35.6 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 389 | 24 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 13.4 | 4.1 | 38.8 | 35.3 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 389 | 24 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 49.5 | 34.6 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 389 | 24 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 14.0 | 4.3 | 36.3 | 36.0 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 396 | 17 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 48.4 | 35.7 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 403 | 10 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 50.8 | 37.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 405 | 8 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 49.7 | 39.1 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 407 | 6 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 47.1 | 40.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.