South West: Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	28.2%	11	28.8%	6	0	+6	17
LAB	24.5%	24	18.9%	0	6	-6	18
LIB	24.7%	22	25.5%	0	0	+0	22
Reform	13.8%	0	18.4%	0	0	+0	0
Green	7.4%	1	7.8%	0	0	+0	1
Other	1.4%	0	0.6%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Bristol North West' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Dorset Mid and North Poole', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol Central (prediction: Green).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
104	412	Bristol North West	Darren Jones	74,869	64.7	14.6	43.4	9.4	14.7	17.7	0.0	0.2	LAB	LAB
136	380	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Luke Pollard	75,313	55.9	17.1	43.2	6.8	23.3	8.1	0.7	0.9	LAB	LAB
149	367	Bristol South	Karin Smyth	75,533	57.5	12.0	36.5	7.1	18.9	25.4	0.0	0.1	LAB	LAB
154	362	Bristol East	Kerry McCarthy	75,917	60.7	14.8	38.8	7.0	6.4	31.2	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
156	360	Bristol North East	Damien Egan	70,076	59.9	15.6	39.0	5.7	19.0	19.2	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
164	352	Exeter	Steve Race	67,840	59.2	16.3	39.1	11.3	17.4	15.2	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
172	343	Bristol Central	Carla Denyer	62,735	69.1	5.2	26.4	3.5	7.7	57.0	0.0	0.2	Green	Green
231	285	Swindon South	Heidi Alexander	72,596	61.7	27.6	42.2	5.0	18.7	6.1	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
236	280	Stroud	Simon Joseph Opher	77,912	70.9	26.4	40.2	6.1	16.3	10.8	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
239	277	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Claire Hazelgrove	77,584	64.9	26.2	39.3	7.9	18.0	8.6	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
264	252	Camborne and Redruth	Perran Moon	74,402	64.2	24.9	34.3	9.5	24.1	6.4	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
265	251	Truro and Falmouth	Jayne Kirkham	73,082	68.8	25.8	35.1	13.9	17.3	7.3	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
291	225	Plymouth Moor View	Fred Thomas	74,724	57.4	28.7	35.0	4.9	27.0	4.3	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
297	219	Bournemouth East	Tom Hayes	72,354	62.1	29.4	34.6	7.9	20.0	6.7	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
314	202	Weston-super-Mare	Dan Aldridge	71,396	59.4	28.7	32.3	9.6	22.7	6.7	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
315	201	Somerset North East and Hanham	Dan Norris	73,887	69.2	30.8	34.3	8.4	19.4	6.7	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
329	187	Swindon North	Will Stone	73,238	60.3	32.0	34.4	5.6	22.0	5.8	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
336	180	Bournemouth West	Jessica Toale	70,259	56.1	28.9	30.2	11.8	21.7	7.1	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
341	175	Gloucester	Alex McIntyre	79,475	57.5	29.3	29.8	11.3	21.2	5.5	2.1	0.7	LAB	LAB
358	158	St Austell and Newquay	Noah Law	76,140	61.4	29.6	27.9	11.2	25.0	5.5	0.0	0.8	LAB	CON
366	150	Cornwall South East	Anna Gelderd	72,728	67.8	28.6	25.6	17.6	23.6	4.5	0.0	0.2	LAB	CON
379	137	Dorset South	Lloyd Hatton	75,924	64.6	30.5	25.7	17.2	21.5	4.8	0.0	0.3	LAB	CON
384	131	Bath	Wera Hobhouse	69,655	69.1	16.8	11.8	42.4	14.1	12.9	0.5	1.6	LIB	LIB
388	128	Somerset North	Sadik Al-Hassan	74,426	72.2	35.0	29.4	14.0	14.9	6.5	0.2	0.0	LAB	CON
394	122	Forest of Dean	Matt Bishop	72,052	66.7	34.1	27.8	6.2	21.6	10.2	0.0	0.1	LAB	CON
398	118	Poole	Neil John Duncan-Jordan	72,509	61.4	32.5	25.6	13.3	22.2	5.5	0.0	0.9	LAB	CON
399	117	Devon Central	Mel Stride	75,385	70.9	32.2	25.2	16.2	19.4	6.7	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
400	116	Exmouth and Exeter East	David George Reed	79,983	64.2	29.4	22.2	23.1	19.3	5.0	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
417	99	Bridgwater	Ashley Fox	71,571	56.1	31.3	21.0	15.2	27.0	4.7	0.4	0.3	CON	CON
423	93	Devon South West	Rebecca Smith	77,600	67.3	35.0	24.0	11.5	22.9	6.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
447	69	Wiltshire South West	Andrew Murrison	72,809	63.4	34.5	20.6	16.5	22.3	5.3	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
448	68	Salisbury	John Glen	71,553	70.1	34.8	20.3	24.4	15.4	4.7	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
460	56	Wiltshire East	Danny Kruger	73,878	63.9	36.3	19.5	18.2	21.4	4.3	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
461	54	Frome and East Somerset	Anna Sabine	70,378	66.4	24.6	7.5	36.4	19.2	11.4	0.0	0.9	LIB	LIB
462	54	Torridge and Tavistock	Geoffrey Cox	74,727	68.0	32.2	15.0	24.6	22.8	5.0	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
471	44	Newton Abbot	Martin Wrigley	73,885	65.0	27.9	8.6	32.8	24.1	4.9	0.0	1.7	LIB	LIB
481	34	Yeovil	Adam Dance	79,700	61.4	23.9	2.3	49.1	19.0	5.2	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
481	34	St Ives	Andrew George	69,980	68.7	23.8	2.2	52.6	16.8	4.0	0.0	0.6	LIB	LIB
483	32	Taunton and Wellington	Gideon Amos	78,116	64.4	25.1	2.7	48.9	19.3	3.9	0.0	0.1	LIB	LIB
483	32	Wells and Mendip Hills	Tessa Munt	72,051	69.9	25.5	2.6	47.7	18.0	4.5	0.0	1.6	LIB	LIB
490	26	Cotswolds North	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	72,513	69.3	35.4	10.9	28.8	17.8	6.8	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
492	23	Cornwall North	Ben Maguire	76,832	67.8	27.5	2.1	48.3	19.0	2.8	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
495	21	Christchurch	Christopher Chope	71,064	66.6	36.7	10.2	21.2	25.5	4.6	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
495	20	Chippenham	Sarah Gibson	73,876	67.0	29.7	3.0	46.2	16.4	4.3	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
496	19	Glastonbury and Somerton	Sarah Joanne Dyke	72,982	65.3	29.3	2.5	43.2	19.0	6.0	0.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
498	17	Tewkesbury	Cameron Thomas	73,458	66.1	30.4	3.3	43.4	16.5	6.3	0.0	0.1	LIB	LIB
498	17	Torbay	Steve Darling	76,179	60.5	29.9	2.7	41.6	21.9	3.4	0.5	0.0	LIB	LIB
500	15	Devon North	Ian Roome	79,079	65.0	29.8	2.4	43.0	19.3	4.9	0.0	0.6	LIB	LIB
501	14	Tiverton and Minehead	Rachel Gilmour	71,843	66.1	31.8	3.4	39.3	20.5	5.1	0.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
504	11	Devon South	Caroline Voaden	70,755	69.3	31.8	2.4	46.5	15.9	3.3	0.0	0.1	LIB	LIB
508	7	Thornbury and Yate	Claire Young	78,195	68.2	33.9	3.6	39.7	18.3	4.4	0.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
508	7	Honiton and Sidmouth	Richard Foord	75,537	67.1	32.6	2.2	46.0	15.6	3.0	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
510	5	Melksham and Devizes	Brian Mathew	71,999	71.1	35.0	3.4	39.8	17.1	4.7	0.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
510	5	Cotswolds South	Roz Savage	71,971	72.7	34.9	2.8	44.6	13.8	3.3	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
512	4	Dorset North	Simon Hoare	72,690	68.3	37.2	3.3	34.2	20.3	4.6	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
512	3	Cheltenham	Max Wilkinson	76,143	65.1	36.5	2.0	51.1	3.1	6.6	0.0	0.6	LIB	LIB
513	2	Dorset West	Edward Morello	75,998	69.2	37.0	2.2	51.9	3.5	4.7	0.0	0.8	LIB	LIB
514	1	Dorset Mid and North Poole	Vikki Slade	75,294	65.8	41.3	3.5	44.2	5.0	5.2	0.0	0.8	LIB	LIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.