| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 23.6% | 9 | 1 | +8 | 19 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 20.9% | 0 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 18.7% | 0 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 21.4% | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 9.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 5.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Bristol East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Christchurch', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Frome and East Somerset (prediction: LIB), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Stroud (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 388 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 9.6 | 38.9 | 5.3 | 9.1 | 31.7 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 35 | 373 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 3.4 | 29.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 56.2 | 2.8 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 41 | 368 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 12.2 | 40.5 | 8.0 | 14.5 | 17.7 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 76 | 333 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 18.9 | 39.4 | 4.8 | 17.7 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 88 | 321 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 12.5 | 37.2 | 6.2 | 17.0 | 18.4 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 102 | 307 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 9.2 | 34.8 | 4.7 | 17.1 | 25.0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 108 | 301 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 11.9 | 35.4 | 3.5 | 18.4 | 20.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 133 | 276 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 5.0 | 46.1 | 0.9 | 31.7 | 3.8 | 12.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 143 | 266 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 18.6 | 35.5 | 6.5 | 21.4 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 169 | 240 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 19.8 | 32.6 | 10.4 | 20.7 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 189 | 219 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 13.6 | 21.8 | 37.0 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 192 | 217 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 24.1 | 30.9 | 10.0 | 21.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 196 | 213 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 22.8 | 30.4 | 8.7 | 21.0 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 217 | 192 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 21.2 | 31.7 | 4.9 | 24.0 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 223 | 185 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 31.2 | 26.6 | 9.1 | 19.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 256 | 152 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 29.6 | 26.0 | 11.0 | 21.3 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 280 | 129 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 21.6 | 26.2 | 11.5 | 23.3 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 289 | 120 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 20.3 | 27.5 | 9.7 | 25.0 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 291 | 117 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 31.4 | 22.2 | 15.7 | 19.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 294 | 115 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 24.3 | 25.2 | 15.0 | 23.0 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 298 | 111 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 22.0 | 27.4 | 9.9 | 25.7 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 298 | 110 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 24.4 | 22.6 | 19.0 | 20.9 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 302 | 106 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 29.5 | 25.1 | 4.4 | 24.3 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 308 | 101 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 22.7 | 26.3 | 9.2 | 25.9 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 320 | 88 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 32.1 | 18.0 | 18.3 | 19.3 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 328 | 80 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 18.9 | 18.7 | 24.4 | 20.7 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 335 | 73 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 31.9 | 22.9 | 7.2 | 25.3 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 336 | 73 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 25.6 | 26.3 | 2.9 | 28.8 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 338 | 70 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 25.3 | 20.1 | 18.8 | 22.8 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 340 | 68 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 24.5 | 21.0 | 14.4 | 24.3 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 345 | 63 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 20.6 | 14.8 | 34.9 | 19.1 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 348 | 60 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 29.8 | 22.5 | 7.9 | 27.0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 352 | 56 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 31.9 | 2.2 | 52.7 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 354 | 54 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 31.9 | 20.1 | 10.4 | 25.4 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 361 | 48 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 21.3 | 25.6 | 4.0 | 31.5 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 363 | 45 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 34.8 | 2.4 | 48.6 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 364 | 44 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 26.2 | 9.1 | 39.2 | 15.6 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 364 | 44 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 38.0 | 2.7 | 44.6 | 9.2 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 364 | 44 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 24.9 | 8.6 | 43.0 | 15.2 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 369 | 39 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 39.6 | 2.5 | 43.2 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 373 | 35 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 31.9 | 10.7 | 29.5 | 19.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 377 | 31 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 31.2 | 12.3 | 25.7 | 21.0 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 379 | 29 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 31.5 | 8.7 | 32.3 | 18.2 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 379 | 29 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 23.0 | 10.0 | 37.9 | 19.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 379 | 29 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 31.8 | 16.7 | 11.1 | 26.5 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 379 | 29 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 22.5 | 14.7 | 26.8 | 24.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 380 | 28 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 19.9 | 12.1 | 34.5 | 22.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 381 | 27 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 18.5 | 12.2 | 35.2 | 23.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 382 | 26 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 29.8 | 12.6 | 22.5 | 24.1 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 385 | 23 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 22.5 | 9.5 | 35.5 | 22.1 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 386 | 22 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 18.4 | 10.9 | 35.4 | 23.9 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 391 | 17 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 21.8 | 8.2 | 39.3 | 21.9 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 392 | 16 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 31.1 | 10.2 | 23.8 | 24.4 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 392 | 16 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 27.8 | 11.8 | 22.0 | 26.0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 394 | 14 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 22.3 | 9.5 | 33.3 | 24.8 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 395 | 14 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 30.2 | 16.9 | 7.8 | 32.6 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 401 | 7 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 43.3 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 31.3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 401 | 7 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 40.6 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 33.3 | 3.0 | 9.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.