South West: Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	28.2%	11	26.4%	13	2	+11	22
LAB	24.5%	24	20.6%	0	11	-11	13
LIB	24.7%	22	20.2%	0	5	-5	17
Reform	13.8%	0	22.9%	5	0	+5	5
Green	7.4%	1	9.2%	0	0	+0	1
Other	1.4%	0	0.7%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Bristol North West' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Dorset Mid and North Poole', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Christchurch (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
46	310	Bristol North West	Darren Jones	74,869	64.7	15.8	39.3	12.0	14.7	17.5	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
57	299	Bristol East	Kerry McCarthy	75,917	60.7	14.1	36.6	9.7	8.8	29.2	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
65	290	Bristol Central	Carla Denyer	62,735	69.1	6.6	27.8	7.3	5.1	52.8	0.0	0.5	Green	Green
73	283	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Luke Pollard	75,313	55.9	17.6	37.6	9.8	23.0	10.0	1.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
79	277	Bristol North East	Damien Egan	70,076	59.9	16.9	36.2	9.0	19.0	17.5	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
84	272	Bristol South	Karin Smyth	75,533	57.5	14.2	33.3	9.4	19.8	22.6	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
88	268	Exeter	Steve Race	67,840	59.2	17.4	36.1	12.9	17.3	15.3	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
124	232	Stroud	Simon Joseph Opher	77,912	70.9	23.4	35.3	9.3	19.7	11.7	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
137	219	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Claire Hazelgrove	77,584	64.9	24.3	33.8	9.9	20.9	10.7	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
138	218	Truro and Falmouth	Jayne Kirkham	73,082	68.8	22.4	32.0	14.1	21.7	9.1	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
146	210	Swindon South	Heidi Alexander	72,596	61.7	25.5	34.2	8.1	23.0	8.5	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
149	207	Camborne and Redruth	Perran Moon	74,402	64.2	21.6	30.1	10.9	29.0	7.6	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
176	180	Bournemouth East	Tom Hayes	72,354	62.1	25.7	31.0	10.3	22.5	9.2	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
183	172	Bath	Wera Hobhouse	69,655	69.1	17.7	21.5	33.2	12.0	13.7	0.5	1.4	LIB	LIB
196	160	Somerset North East and Hanham	Dan Norris	73,887	69.2	28.6	29.8	10.0	23.0	8.2	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
208	148	Weston-super-Mare	Dan Aldridge	71,396	59.4	27.7	26.7	10.1	26.5	8.6	0.0	0.3	LAB	CON
210	145	Plymouth Moor View	Fred Thomas	74,724	57.4	26.9	25.3	8.0	31.9	7.4	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
210	145	Cornwall South East	Anna Gelderd	72,728	67.8	25.7	24.0	15.2	28.8	6.0	0.0	0.3	LAB	Reform
211	145	Swindon North	Will Stone	73,238	60.3	29.9	28.2	7.7	26.0	7.7	0.0	0.5	LAB	CON
213	143	Bournemouth West	Jessica Toale	70,259	56.1	27.6	25.6	11.6	25.1	9.6	0.0	0.5	LAB	CON
215	140	St Austell and Newquay	Noah Law	76,140	61.4	26.6	24.6	11.0	30.4	6.9	0.0	0.6	LAB	Reform
216	140	Exmouth and Exeter East	David George Reed	79,983	64.2	26.0	23.8	18.9	23.6	6.8	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
218	138	Devon Central	Mel Stride	75,385	70.9	27.2	24.7	15.0	25.2	7.5	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
220	136	Gloucester	Alex McIntyre	79,475	57.5	28.5	25.5	10.8	25.1	7.8	1.7	0.5	LAB	CON
227	129	Forest of Dean	Matt Bishop	72,052	66.7	29.0	24.8	8.2	28.0	9.7	0.0	0.3	LAB	CON
228	128	Dorset South	Lloyd Hatton	75,924	64.6	27.9	23.4	14.8	26.9	6.5	0.0	0.4	LAB	CON
231	125	Somerset North	Sadik Al-Hassan	74,426	72.2	32.0	27.1	13.5	18.1	8.3	1.0	0.0	LAB	CON
241	114	Frome and East Somerset	Anna Sabine	70,378	66.4	22.3	15.4	27.1	23.5	10.9	0.0	0.8	LIB	LIB
244	112	Poole	Neil John Duncan-Jordan	72,509	61.4	30.9	23.7	12.5	24.6	7.5	0.0	0.7	LAB	CON
263	93	Salisbury	John Glen	71,553	70.1	30.7	21.7	20.0	20.4	6.7	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
265	90	Bridgwater	Ashley Fox	71,571	56.1	28.6	19.2	13.5	31.6	6.1	0.6	0.3	CON	Reform
266	90	Devon South West	Rebecca Smith	77,600	67.3	31.5	22.0	12.4	25.5	8.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
269	87	Wiltshire South West	Andrew Murrison	72,809	63.4	31.3	20.9	14.0	26.3	6.9	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
272	83	St Ives	Andrew George	69,980	68.7	21.5	10.8	36.7	24.6	5.7	0.0	0.7	LIB	LIB
275	81	Wiltshire East	Danny Kruger	73,878	63.9	29.9	19.0	16.7	27.2	6.8	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
280	75	Torridge and Tavistock	Geoffrey Cox	74,727	68.0	28.1	16.4	20.1	28.2	6.7	0.0	0.5	CON	Reform
291	65	Newton Abbot	Martin Wrigley	73,885	65.0	27.8	15.2	23.8	25.8	6.4	0.0	1.1	LIB	CON
293	62	Taunton and Wellington	Gideon Amos	78,116	64.4	23.9	11.2	33.3	25.1	6.1	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
297	58	Wells and Mendip Hills	Tessa Munt	72,051	69.9	25.2	11.7	33.4	22.8	6.1	0.0	0.8	LIB	LIB
301	55	Cotswolds North	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	72,513	69.3	30.8	16.2	22.5	22.4	7.8	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
301	54	Yeovil	Adam Dance	79,700	61.4	24.6	9.9	32.2	26.3	6.6	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
310	45	Cornwall North	Ben Maguire	76,832	67.8	25.3	9.3	32.7	27.8	4.6	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
313	42	Glastonbury and Somerton	Sarah Joanne Dyke	72,982	65.3	26.5	9.8	30.0	26.8	6.7	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
321	34	Tiverton and Minehead	Rachel Gilmour	71,843	66.1	27.5	9.8	29.1	26.8	6.5	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
322	33	Devon North	Ian Roome	79,079	65.0	27.8	9.8	29.3	26.4	6.2	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
322	33	Chippenham	Sarah Gibson	73,876	67.0	29.1	11.1	31.9	20.9	6.5	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
324	31	Tewkesbury	Cameron Thomas	73,458	66.1	29.7	11.5	29.7	21.0	7.7	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
329	27	Christchurch	Christopher Chope	71,064	66.6	33.7	14.4	17.9	26.7	6.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
329	26	Devon South	Caroline Voaden	70,755	69.3	29.1	9.7	32.9	22.9	5.1	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
330	25	Cotswolds South	Roz Savage	71,971	72.7	30.6	10.9	32.6	20.3	5.2	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
332	24	Thornbury and Yate	Claire Young	78,195	68.2	31.5	11.8	27.7	22.6	6.1	0.0	0.3	LIB	CON
333	22	Honiton and Sidmouth	Richard Foord	75,537	67.1	29.5	9.7	31.8	23.9	4.7	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
335	21	Melksham and Devizes	Brian Mathew	71,999	71.1	31.3	11.2	28.7	22.5	6.1	0.0	0.2	LIB	CON
336	19	Cheltenham	Max Wilkinson	76,143	65.1	31.5	11.1	36.3	11.5	9.0	0.0	0.7	LIB	LIB
337	19	Torbay	Steve Darling	76,179	60.5	29.7	9.3	27.1	27.0	5.6	1.4	0.0	LIB	CON
342	14	Dorset North	Simon Hoare	72,690	68.3	31.6	9.9	25.8	26.3	5.9	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
347	8	Dorset West	Edward Morello	75,998	69.2	32.8	10.2	36.5	13.7	6.2	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
350	6	Dorset Mid and North Poole	Vikki Slade	75,294	65.8	35.6	11.0	31.6	14.2	6.9	0.0	0.7	LIB	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.