| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 22.7% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 19.8% | 0 | 11 | -11 | 13 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 19.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 22 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 24.0% | 12 | 0 | +12 | 12 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 8.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 5.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Bristol Central' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Christchurch', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Camborne and Redruth (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Bristol East (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 384 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 4.8 | 35.1 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 46.9 | 2.0 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 47 | 352 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 10.6 | 38.2 | 5.4 | 15.4 | 27.1 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 81 | 318 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 13.0 | 36.1 | 7.8 | 18.4 | 19.9 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 98 | 301 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 12.0 | 43.9 | 3.9 | 29.1 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 106 | 293 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 10.7 | 35.0 | 4.6 | 20.8 | 22.2 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 112 | 287 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 12.4 | 34.5 | 7.0 | 20.6 | 19.4 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 141 | 258 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 11.7 | 33.5 | 5.1 | 22.2 | 17.7 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 154 | 245 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 9.8 | 32.3 | 5.5 | 22.1 | 23.8 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 177 | 222 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 20.3 | 30.1 | 6.4 | 21.6 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 194 | 205 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 21.6 | 31.0 | 8.1 | 24.2 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 202 | 197 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 14.0 | 37.3 | 7.0 | 31.6 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 209 | 189 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 15.8 | 19.2 | 32.6 | 14.3 | 14.7 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 222 | 177 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 26.9 | 28.5 | 9.6 | 24.8 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 239 | 160 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 21.1 | 28.9 | 7.8 | 26.6 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 259 | 140 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 23.4 | 27.0 | 5.6 | 26.2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 279 | 119 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 29.3 | 19.6 | 19.3 | 20.8 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 286 | 113 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 24.4 | 25.9 | 9.8 | 27.6 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 293 | 105 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 25.9 | 22.8 | 14.1 | 25.0 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 294 | 104 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 22.8 | 20.3 | 19.3 | 22.6 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 309 | 90 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 26.7 | 22.6 | 10.1 | 26.8 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 316 | 83 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 15.8 | 28.2 | 4.9 | 32.9 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 317 | 81 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 19.2 | 17.2 | 28.1 | 22.1 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 330 | 69 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 18.5 | 28.2 | 8.2 | 34.1 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 334 | 65 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 23.7 | 26.4 | 5.5 | 32.4 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 334 | 64 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 27.8 | 17.0 | 20.3 | 23.1 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 335 | 64 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 21.8 | 23.6 | 9.4 | 29.8 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 335 | 63 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 35.1 | 2.1 | 48.1 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 344 | 55 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 22.9 | 22.9 | 10.3 | 29.4 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 346 | 53 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 22.4 | 22.8 | 10.2 | 29.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 354 | 44 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 36.1 | 2.1 | 47.4 | 9.6 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 360 | 38 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 36.2 | 2.1 | 46.0 | 10.4 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 360 | 38 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 38.3 | 2.2 | 42.7 | 10.8 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 367 | 31 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 23.8 | 11.0 | 34.3 | 20.2 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 372 | 27 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 25.1 | 22.0 | 8.9 | 31.7 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 373 | 25 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 23.6 | 9.5 | 37.3 | 19.3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 373 | 25 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 20.2 | 12.7 | 35.5 | 22.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 373 | 25 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 33.8 | 5.4 | 38.4 | 15.3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 374 | 24 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 28.4 | 8.4 | 36.6 | 19.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 375 | 24 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 22.9 | 20.3 | 14.8 | 30.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 376 | 23 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 22.4 | 21.2 | 13.4 | 32.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 376 | 22 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 29.3 | 8.8 | 33.0 | 19.6 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 377 | 21 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 23.0 | 13.9 | 27.6 | 24.7 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 383 | 16 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 23.6 | 20.9 | 10.8 | 32.5 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 383 | 15 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 27.5 | 9.9 | 32.5 | 21.6 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 385 | 13 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 19.5 | 10.7 | 37.5 | 22.9 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 388 | 10 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 20.6 | 10.5 | 35.9 | 22.9 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 392 | 6 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 26.1 | 10.8 | 29.1 | 24.5 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 392 | 6 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 23.5 | 8.7 | 35.2 | 22.6 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 393 | 5 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 23.2 | 9.5 | 33.4 | 23.6 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 394 | 4 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 19.7 | 9.6 | 35.9 | 25.0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 394 | 4 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 32.1 | 14.8 | 10.0 | 30.3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 394 | 4 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 37.6 | 13.3 | 8.9 | 28.9 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 394 | 4 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 21.5 | 8.1 | 37.1 | 23.7 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 394 | 4 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 41.2 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 28.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 394 | 4 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 23.8 | 8.7 | 32.4 | 25.3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 395 | 3 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 33.7 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 30.3 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 395 | 3 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 33.4 | 10.3 | 19.6 | 27.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 395 | 3 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 42.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 33.8 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.