| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 20.6% | 1 | 9 | -8 | 3 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 16.6% | 0 | 20 | -20 | 4 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 19.1% | 0 | 3 | -3 | 19 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 26.6% | 26 | 0 | +26 | 26 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 14.2% | 5 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 2.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Bristol Central' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Yeovil', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Tiverton and Minehead (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Stroud (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 347 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 6.1 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 65.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | Green | Green |
| 41 | 343 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 12.9 | 37.0 | 4.5 | 32.1 | 10.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 47 | 337 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 14.2 | 32.1 | 9.6 | 27.8 | 13.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 55 | 328 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 11.7 | 25.1 | 11.0 | 21.3 | 27.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | LAB | Green |
| 56 | 328 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 17.6 | 29.0 | 8.0 | 25.4 | 16.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 61 | 322 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 12.0 | 18.4 | 9.0 | 15.6 | 38.8 | 2.7 | 3.4 | LAB | Green |
| 68 | 316 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 19.2 | 25.3 | 12.5 | 24.0 | 16.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 72 | 311 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 13.2 | 15.6 | 29.7 | 14.8 | 22.0 | 1.2 | 3.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 86 | 298 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 23.1 | 24.2 | 12.2 | 25.5 | 12.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 95 | 288 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 26.1 | 20.8 | 13.3 | 24.2 | 13.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | LAB | CON |
| 96 | 288 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 22.3 | 22.6 | 9.9 | 26.1 | 15.6 | 1.1 | 2.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 103 | 280 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 12.0 | 22.3 | 7.9 | 26.5 | 27.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | LAB | Green |
| 108 | 275 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 31.6 | 2.7 | 51.4 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 125 | 258 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 32.2 | 9.1 | 35.5 | 14.8 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 1.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 128 | 255 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 33.9 | 2.6 | 49.1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 1.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 131 | 253 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 23.3 | 17.6 | 22.3 | 24.2 | 9.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | CON | Reform |
| 138 | 245 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 11.5 | 21.1 | 5.8 | 28.3 | 28.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 | LAB | Green |
| 144 | 240 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 22.7 | 18.3 | 18.6 | 25.9 | 12.0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | CON | Reform |
| 145 | 239 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 22.0 | 20.8 | 15.6 | 28.4 | 10.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | CON | Reform |
| 149 | 235 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 18.7 | 23.4 | 7.5 | 31.2 | 16.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 150 | 233 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 9.6 | 19.8 | 7.1 | 27.6 | 32.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 | LAB | Green |
| 156 | 228 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 23.1 | 20.7 | 12.0 | 29.2 | 13.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 157 | 227 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 20.4 | 22.3 | 10.5 | 31.0 | 13.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 162 | 222 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 21.6 | 19.6 | 12.4 | 28.6 | 15.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 163 | 221 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 21.6 | 20.6 | 12.0 | 29.6 | 12.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 167 | 217 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 10.8 | 24.5 | 5.1 | 34.5 | 21.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 171 | 213 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 23.2 | 19.6 | 15.3 | 29.6 | 10.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 176 | 207 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 22.6 | 10.8 | 32.2 | 21.0 | 10.8 | 0.7 | 1.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 181 | 203 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 16.5 | 25.6 | 6.2 | 36.2 | 12.4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 197 | 186 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 23.5 | 10.5 | 33.2 | 22.3 | 7.6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 199 | 185 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 22.9 | 19.0 | 9.2 | 30.9 | 15.8 | 0.9 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 199 | 184 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 24.6 | 10.1 | 29.8 | 22.1 | 11.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 202 | 181 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 19.1 | 10.9 | 33.1 | 23.3 | 9.5 | 1.3 | 2.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 209 | 175 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 24.9 | 13.0 | 23.1 | 25.7 | 10.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | CON | Reform |
| 229 | 154 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 21.6 | 11.9 | 28.7 | 26.2 | 8.8 | 1.0 | 1.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 231 | 153 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 22.4 | 19.9 | 10.4 | 34.4 | 9.9 | 1.0 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 236 | 148 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 23.0 | 13.1 | 22.5 | 27.9 | 10.4 | 0.7 | 2.5 | LIB | Reform |
| 238 | 146 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 23.6 | 19.2 | 10.5 | 34.0 | 9.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | CON | Reform |
| 239 | 144 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 21.9 | 9.7 | 32.3 | 24.5 | 9.5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 242 | 142 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 18.3 | 23.2 | 5.8 | 38.3 | 12.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 245 | 138 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 22.7 | 10.5 | 30.2 | 25.8 | 8.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 246 | 137 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 18.4 | 9.8 | 33.5 | 25.3 | 10.4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 256 | 127 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 23.1 | 9.2 | 29.3 | 25.6 | 10.4 | 0.7 | 1.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 258 | 125 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 35.0 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 30.5 | 7.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | CON | CON |
| 258 | 125 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 15.2 | 9.8 | 32.2 | 26.5 | 12.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 260 | 123 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 20.9 | 8.7 | 34.3 | 25.5 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 265 | 118 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 21.9 | 9.7 | 30.4 | 26.7 | 9.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 267 | 117 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 24.4 | 16.8 | 12.3 | 33.8 | 9.8 | 1.1 | 1.8 | CON | Reform |
| 268 | 116 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 25.8 | 10.5 | 26.6 | 27.7 | 7.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | CON | Reform |
| 297 | 87 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 27.3 | 16.1 | 6.6 | 35.5 | 11.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 307 | 77 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 23.9 | 8.9 | 27.4 | 29.2 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 1.6 | LIB | Reform |
| 333 | 51 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 19.8 | 9.5 | 28.3 | 32.3 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | LIB | Reform |
| 334 | 50 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 28.0 | 12.6 | 13.6 | 35.4 | 8.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | CON | Reform |
| 336 | 48 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 18.2 | 15.4 | 16.0 | 38.3 | 9.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | CON | Reform |
| 346 | 37 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 43.1 | 30.6 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 363 | 20 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 16.4 | 6.3 | 35.9 | 32.9 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 367 | 16 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 42.8 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 36.0 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 1.4 | CON | CON |
| 372 | 11 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 52.4 | 34.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.