| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 21.9% | 0 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 14.5% | 0 | 14 | -14 | 10 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 22.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 22 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 25.6% | 16 | 0 | +16 | 16 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 10.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 5.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Bristol Central' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Christchurch', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Torridge and Tavistock (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Bristol Central (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 341 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 4.4 | 30.4 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 49.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 32 | 319 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 9.7 | 31.6 | 7.4 | 18.1 | 29.9 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 42 | 309 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 6.4 | 47.1 | 2.3 | 35.3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 55 | 296 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 12.2 | 30.1 | 10.3 | 20.0 | 22.5 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 87 | 264 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 11.5 | 28.1 | 9.4 | 22.7 | 22.1 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 91 | 260 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 9.9 | 28.5 | 6.3 | 23.6 | 25.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 113 | 238 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 9.0 | 26.9 | 7.4 | 24.0 | 26.3 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 126 | 225 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 10.9 | 26.6 | 7.0 | 25.1 | 20.6 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 128 | 223 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 19.5 | 24.6 | 8.6 | 23.3 | 15.3 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 140 | 211 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 13.3 | 33.3 | 8.7 | 33.2 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 141 | 210 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 20.7 | 25.6 | 10.6 | 25.5 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 165 | 186 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 26.0 | 23.4 | 12.2 | 26.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 174 | 176 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 15.0 | 12.7 | 35.2 | 16.3 | 17.4 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 207 | 144 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 20.5 | 22.4 | 10.5 | 28.3 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 223 | 128 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 22.6 | 21.1 | 7.5 | 28.4 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 229 | 121 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 34.3 | 1.1 | 48.6 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 239 | 112 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 23.5 | 20.7 | 12.3 | 28.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 247 | 103 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 35.4 | 1.1 | 47.7 | 10.4 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 249 | 101 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 28.4 | 13.4 | 21.9 | 22.9 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 258 | 93 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 21.9 | 14.1 | 21.9 | 24.4 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 265 | 85 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 36.7 | 1.9 | 41.7 | 12.7 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 270 | 80 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 33.0 | 2.7 | 43.2 | 14.0 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 271 | 80 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 18.0 | 20.0 | 8.2 | 31.6 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 278 | 73 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 22.8 | 21.6 | 7.3 | 34.1 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 279 | 72 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 21.0 | 18.3 | 12.0 | 30.9 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 283 | 67 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 17.8 | 11.1 | 31.6 | 24.0 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 291 | 60 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 21.5 | 17.4 | 12.7 | 30.6 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 292 | 59 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 19.7 | 20.7 | 11.9 | 34.0 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 299 | 51 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 27.0 | 10.9 | 22.9 | 25.0 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 299 | 51 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 22.9 | 6.7 | 36.7 | 20.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 302 | 48 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 30.0 | 5.1 | 35.8 | 19.6 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 302 | 48 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 22.8 | 5.4 | 39.8 | 20.1 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 304 | 47 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 22.9 | 16.3 | 12.5 | 31.5 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 313 | 37 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 25.9 | 5.8 | 36.7 | 21.8 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 314 | 36 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 26.7 | 6.3 | 32.8 | 22.6 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 316 | 35 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 22.1 | 15.5 | 17.3 | 32.2 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 316 | 34 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 19.4 | 7.3 | 38.1 | 24.4 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 316 | 34 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 36.1 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 29.1 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 316 | 34 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 26.3 | 5.8 | 34.6 | 23.2 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 317 | 34 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 22.2 | 16.1 | 15.6 | 33.5 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 318 | 32 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 19.8 | 6.3 | 38.4 | 23.9 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 319 | 31 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 22.1 | 8.6 | 30.1 | 26.4 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 322 | 28 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 22.6 | 4.9 | 37.7 | 23.2 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 324 | 26 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 25.2 | 6.6 | 31.5 | 25.5 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 324 | 26 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 17.4 | 5.9 | 41.3 | 24.9 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 325 | 25 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 22.4 | 5.3 | 35.9 | 24.5 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 326 | 25 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 25.8 | 11.4 | 18.1 | 30.9 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 330 | 20 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 20.6 | 4.5 | 39.5 | 24.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 332 | 18 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 22.9 | 4.9 | 34.8 | 26.0 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 334 | 16 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 39.3 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 31.3 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 337 | 14 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 29.1 | 12.5 | 10.3 | 35.2 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 338 | 12 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 30.4 | 5.7 | 23.8 | 28.7 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 339 | 12 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 32.1 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 35.2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 340 | 10 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 44.1 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 30.8 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 10 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 41.2 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 32.1 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 10 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 13.8 | 3.7 | 43.3 | 29.5 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 340 | 10 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 36.5 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 33.7 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 344 | 6 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 41.1 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 36.7 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.