South West: Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	28.2%	11	21.2%	2	7	-5	6
LAB	24.5%	24	15.3%	0	20	-20	4
LIB	24.7%	22	19.4%	1	2	-1	21
Reform	13.8%	0	24.3%	21	0	+21	21
Green	7.4%	1	16.4%	5	0	+5	6
Other	1.4%	0	3.3%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Bristol Central' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Christchurch', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Christchurch (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Bristol Central (prediction: Green).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	Reform Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
24	305	Bristol Central	Carla Denyer	62,735	69.1	6.6	10.5	6.4	4.3	67.4	2.5	2.3	Green	Green
36	293	Bristol North West	Darren Jones	74,869	64.7	12.3	23.9	11.3	19.1	29.9	1.8	1.8	LAB	Green
38	292	Stroud	Simon Joseph Opher	77,912	70.9	19.4	25.8	8.9	22.0	19.8	2.2	1.9	LAB	LAB
38	291	Bristol East	Kerry McCarthy	75,917	60.7	12.6	16.8	9.2	13.4	40.9	2.7	4.4	LAB	Green
48	282	Swindon South	Heidi Alexander	72,596	61.7	19.5	26.6	7.4	24.2	19.2	1.3	1.7	LAB	LAB
51	279	Truro and Falmouth	Jayne Kirkham	73,082	68.8	19.8	24.0	12.8	21.8	18.2	1.5	1.9	LAB	LAB
53	277	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Claire Hazelgrove	77,584	64.9	18.3	24.2	12.8	22.1	19.3	2.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
57	272	Bath	Wera Hobhouse	69,655	69.1	13.8	14.0	29.9	12.5	24.0	1.2	4.5	LIB	LIB
64	265	Somerset North East and Hanham	Dan Norris	73,887	69.2	23.7	22.9	12.5	23.3	15.0	0.9	1.7	LAB	CON
70	259	Somerset North	Sadik Al-Hassan	74,426	72.2	26.7	19.6	13.6	22.0	15.4	1.5	1.2	LAB	CON
72	258	Bournemouth East	Tom Hayes	72,354	62.1	22.9	21.2	10.2	23.9	17.7	1.1	3.0	LAB	Reform
75	254	Exeter	Steve Race	67,840	59.2	12.6	21.0	8.1	24.2	29.9	1.7	2.4	LAB	Green
75	254	Cheltenham	Max Wilkinson	76,143	65.1	31.5	2.4	51.9	5.9	5.1	0.9	2.4	LIB	LIB
93	236	Dorset West	Edward Morello	75,998	69.2	33.7	2.3	49.5	7.8	3.8	0.8	2.1	LIB	LIB
98	231	Salisbury	John Glen	71,553	70.1	23.9	16.3	22.5	21.9	12.0	1.2	2.1	CON	CON
105	224	Dorset Mid and North Poole	Vikki Slade	75,294	65.8	36.1	2.8	45.0	9.4	3.6	0.7	2.3	LIB	LIB
106	224	Exmouth and Exeter East	David George Reed	79,983	64.2	23.3	17.0	18.8	23.6	14.2	0.8	2.2	CON	Reform
108	222	Devon Central	Mel Stride	75,385	70.9	22.6	19.5	15.9	26.2	12.5	1.3	2.2	CON	Reform
110	220	Camborne and Redruth	Perran Moon	74,402	64.2	19.3	22.2	7.7	29.0	18.7	1.4	1.7	LAB	Reform
118	212	Cornwall South East	Anna Gelderd	72,728	67.8	23.7	19.5	12.3	27.0	15.5	0.7	1.3	LAB	Reform
120	210	Weston-super-Mare	Dan Aldridge	71,396	59.4	21.0	21.1	10.8	28.7	16.1	1.0	1.3	LAB	Reform
127	203	Bournemouth West	Jessica Toale	70,259	56.1	22.2	18.3	12.6	26.4	17.7	1.0	1.9	LAB	Reform
128	202	Gloucester	Alex McIntyre	79,475	57.5	22.2	19.3	12.3	27.4	14.8	1.6	2.5	LAB	Reform
136	194	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Luke Pollard	75,313	55.9	11.3	23.2	5.4	32.2	23.9	1.7	2.3	LAB	Reform
139	190	Chippenham	Sarah Gibson	73,876	67.0	23.2	9.5	32.5	18.8	12.9	0.7	2.3	LIB	LIB
148	182	Dorset South	Lloyd Hatton	75,924	64.6	25.5	17.6	14.8	27.7	11.7	0.8	1.9	LAB	Reform
150	180	Swindon North	Will Stone	73,238	60.3	18.5	22.3	7.1	32.6	15.9	1.7	1.9	LAB	Reform
153	176	Tewkesbury	Cameron Thomas	73,458	66.1	25.7	8.4	31.2	19.3	12.8	0.7	1.9	LIB	LIB
154	175	Cotswolds South	Roz Savage	71,971	72.7	24.1	9.1	33.5	20.0	9.7	1.0	2.6	LIB	LIB
156	173	Frome and East Somerset	Anna Sabine	70,378	66.4	18.7	10.8	26.7	22.1	17.3	1.7	2.6	LIB	LIB
159	170	Wells and Mendip Hills	Tessa Munt	72,051	69.9	19.7	9.4	33.3	21.0	11.6	1.3	3.7	LIB	LIB
162	167	Cotswolds North	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	72,513	69.3	25.5	11.7	23.4	23.5	12.5	1.2	2.3	CON	CON
164	166	St Austell and Newquay	Noah Law	76,140	61.4	25.0	17.0	9.0	28.9	17.3	0.9	1.8	LAB	Reform
166	163	Bristol North East	Damien Egan	70,076	59.9	10.0	16.0	4.9	28.1	35.8	2.1	3.1	LAB	Green
181	148	Thornbury and Yate	Claire Young	78,195	68.2	22.2	10.6	29.0	23.9	11.0	1.0	2.3	LIB	LIB
181	148	St Ives	Andrew George	69,980	68.7	19.9	9.0	32.4	22.4	13.1	1.0	2.2	LIB	LIB
187	143	Poole	Neil John Duncan-Jordan	72,509	61.4	23.0	18.5	10.7	32.2	12.1	1.0	2.6	LAB	Reform
192	137	Glastonbury and Somerton	Sarah Joanne Dyke	72,982	65.3	22.5	8.5	32.6	22.3	11.7	0.7	1.8	LIB	LIB
194	136	Newton Abbot	Martin Wrigley	73,885	65.0	23.5	11.7	22.7	25.6	12.5	0.7	3.2	LIB	Reform
196	133	Bristol South	Karin Smyth	75,533	57.5	7.9	13.7	5.4	27.8	41.2	2.1	2.0	LAB	Green
197	133	Plymouth Moor View	Fred Thomas	74,724	57.4	18.9	22.0	6.1	36.0	14.8	1.0	1.2	LAB	Reform
200	129	Taunton and Wellington	Gideon Amos	78,116	64.4	18.8	9.4	32.9	23.7	12.1	1.2	1.9	LIB	LIB
200	129	Melksham and Devizes	Brian Mathew	71,999	71.1	23.2	9.3	30.4	23.6	10.6	1.0	1.8	LIB	LIB
210	119	Devon North	Ian Roome	79,079	65.0	23.7	7.9	29.6	23.3	12.5	0.7	2.3	LIB	LIB
213	116	Devon South	Caroline Voaden	70,755	69.3	21.4	7.5	34.6	23.2	10.4	1.1	1.8	LIB	LIB
216	113	Cornwall North	Ben Maguire	76,832	67.8	22.5	8.5	30.6	24.5	11.4	0.6	1.9	LIB	LIB
216	113	Dorset North	Simon Hoare	72,690	68.3	26.4	9.4	26.9	25.4	9.9	0.8	1.2	CON	LIB
223	107	Devon South West	Rebecca Smith	77,600	67.3	28.1	16.0	9.4	32.5	10.9	1.1	2.0	CON	Reform
244	85	Wiltshire East	Danny Kruger	73,878	63.9	41.7	10.5	8.4	29.4	8.1	0.9	1.0	CON	CON
244	85	Torbay	Steve Darling	76,179	60.5	22.7	7.9	29.3	26.8	10.8	1.8	0.7	LIB	LIB
248	81	Honiton and Sidmouth	Richard Foord	75,537	67.1	24.5	7.6	27.7	26.9	10.4	0.8	2.1	LIB	LIB
255	75	Wiltshire South West	Andrew Murrison	72,809	63.4	31.0	12.8	9.9	32.7	10.1	1.1	2.4	CON	Reform
267	63	Tiverton and Minehead	Rachel Gilmour	71,843	66.1	21.3	8.8	27.5	29.4	10.2	1.0	1.9	LIB	Reform
276	54	Forest of Dean	Matt Bishop	72,052	66.7	33.3	12.3	5.4	34.1	11.8	1.4	1.6	LAB	Reform
278	52	Bridgwater	Ashley Fox	71,571	56.1	18.8	14.1	16.2	36.0	11.4	1.4	2.0	CON	Reform
283	47	Torridge and Tavistock	Geoffrey Cox	74,727	68.0	29.7	11.2	13.3	33.4	9.8	0.9	1.7	CON	Reform
302	27	Yeovil	Adam Dance	79,700	61.4	10.1	4.6	45.8	29.5	6.3	1.2	2.5	LIB	LIB
309	20	Christchurch	Christopher Chope	71,064	66.6	43.8	7.2	6.6	33.8	6.1	0.6	1.9	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.