| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 21.4% | 1 | 9 | -8 | 3 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 15.8% | 0 | 21 | -21 | 3 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 20.0% | 0 | 3 | -3 | 19 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 27.5% | 29 | 0 | +29 | 29 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 13.4% | 3 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 1.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Bristol Central' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Yeovil', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Forest of Dean (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Bristol East (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 344 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 65.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | Green | Green |
| 49 | 333 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 14.0 | 35.4 | 5.2 | 32.7 | 10.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 55 | 327 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 18.0 | 28.7 | 8.6 | 26.7 | 15.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 55 | 326 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 12.5 | 24.3 | 11.7 | 22.2 | 26.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | LAB | Green |
| 55 | 326 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 12.8 | 18.2 | 10.5 | 16.5 | 37.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | LAB | Green |
| 59 | 323 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 16.4 | 28.2 | 11.4 | 27.3 | 14.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 65 | 316 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 14.0 | 15.5 | 31.2 | 15.7 | 21.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 67 | 315 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 20.0 | 24.5 | 13.3 | 24.9 | 15.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 82 | 300 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 23.9 | 23.3 | 12.9 | 26.4 | 12.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 97 | 285 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 23.1 | 22.1 | 11.0 | 27.0 | 14.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 97 | 284 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 32.6 | 2.5 | 51.5 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 105 | 277 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 12.8 | 21.6 | 8.8 | 27.4 | 26.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 111 | 270 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 28.0 | 19.2 | 13.5 | 25.3 | 12.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | LAB | CON |
| 118 | 263 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 33.1 | 8.7 | 36.0 | 15.5 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 121 | 260 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 34.9 | 2.4 | 49.0 | 9.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 132 | 250 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 24.1 | 16.8 | 23.1 | 25.1 | 9.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | CON | Reform |
| 141 | 241 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 12.3 | 20.7 | 7.0 | 29.2 | 27.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 148 | 234 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 23.4 | 17.6 | 19.5 | 26.8 | 11.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | CON | Reform |
| 149 | 233 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 22.8 | 20.0 | 16.5 | 29.3 | 9.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | CON | Reform |
| 152 | 229 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 10.4 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 28.5 | 31.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | LAB | Green |
| 153 | 229 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 19.5 | 22.6 | 8.2 | 32.1 | 15.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 162 | 220 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 23.9 | 19.7 | 12.7 | 30.1 | 12.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 165 | 217 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 21.2 | 21.3 | 11.1 | 31.9 | 13.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 166 | 216 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 22.4 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 30.6 | 11.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 168 | 214 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 22.4 | 18.8 | 13.2 | 29.5 | 14.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 174 | 208 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 11.5 | 23.8 | 6.0 | 35.4 | 20.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 178 | 203 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 23.4 | 10.1 | 33.2 | 21.9 | 9.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 182 | 200 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 24.8 | 18.4 | 15.7 | 30.7 | 9.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 190 | 192 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 18.7 | 22.8 | 7.6 | 35.8 | 12.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 195 | 186 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 24.3 | 9.8 | 34.2 | 23.2 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 197 | 184 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 19.9 | 10.6 | 34.3 | 24.2 | 8.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 197 | 184 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 25.4 | 9.4 | 30.6 | 23.0 | 10.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 202 | 180 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 25.7 | 12.3 | 24.0 | 26.6 | 9.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | CON | Reform |
| 209 | 173 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 25.1 | 17.4 | 9.5 | 32.1 | 14.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 227 | 154 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 22.4 | 11.2 | 29.6 | 27.1 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 232 | 150 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 23.2 | 19.3 | 11.4 | 35.3 | 9.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 234 | 148 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 23.7 | 12.7 | 23.6 | 28.8 | 9.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | LIB | Reform |
| 239 | 142 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 22.7 | 8.9 | 33.1 | 25.4 | 8.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 248 | 134 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 19.1 | 22.2 | 6.4 | 39.2 | 11.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 248 | 133 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 23.4 | 9.7 | 30.9 | 26.8 | 7.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 250 | 131 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 18.8 | 8.9 | 34.8 | 26.5 | 9.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 255 | 126 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 23.9 | 8.5 | 30.2 | 26.5 | 9.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 261 | 120 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 21.6 | 7.9 | 35.1 | 26.4 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 262 | 120 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 27.2 | 16.9 | 10.3 | 35.4 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | CON | Reform |
| 264 | 117 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 15.5 | 9.1 | 33.6 | 27.7 | 11.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 264 | 117 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 22.7 | 9.0 | 31.2 | 27.6 | 8.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 270 | 112 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 26.6 | 9.6 | 27.3 | 28.6 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | CON | Reform |
| 298 | 84 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 29.6 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 35.6 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | CON | Reform |
| 301 | 81 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 24.7 | 8.1 | 28.3 | 30.1 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | LIB | Reform |
| 303 | 78 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 41.4 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 32.5 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 330 | 52 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 32.6 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 37.2 | 9.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 332 | 50 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 28.8 | 11.9 | 14.1 | 36.4 | 7.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | CON | Reform |
| 333 | 49 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 20.5 | 8.7 | 29.1 | 33.2 | 6.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | LIB | Reform |
| 334 | 48 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 19.0 | 14.6 | 16.8 | 39.2 | 8.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | CON | Reform |
| 345 | 36 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 43.8 | 31.9 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 351 | 30 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 17.9 | 5.9 | 35.0 | 33.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 359 | 22 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 43.4 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 36.9 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | CON | CON |
| 369 | 12 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 52.5 | 36.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.