| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.6% | 15 | 22.3% | 3 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| LAB | 34.0% | 38 | 25.5% | 1 | 18 | -17 | 21 |
| LIB | 8.8% | 2 | 6.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 18.1% | 0 | 27.1% | 20 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| Green | 6.6% | 1 | 9.5% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 8.7% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Warwick and Leamington' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Kingswinford and South Staffordshire', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stoke-on-Trent Central (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Warwick and Leamington (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 353 | Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western | 76,294 | 64.5 | 17.7 | 39.6 | 6.7 | 15.8 | 14.2 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 115 | 294 | Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali | 76,936 | 54.1 | 8.9 | 34.8 | 6.2 | 18.6 | 22.3 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 120 | 289 | Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood | 83,693 | 43.7 | 5.4 | 31.4 | 2.6 | 16.2 | 28.1 | 16.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 122 | 287 | Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley | 76,633 | 67.3 | 18.4 | 36.0 | 11.3 | 20.9 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 124 | 285 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns | 75,678 | 50.8 | 11.7 | 36.0 | 4.2 | 21.0 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 125 | 284 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Kaur Gill | 71,787 | 52.1 | 7.4 | 46.2 | 1.8 | 31.2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 156 | 253 | Worcester | Tom Collins | 74,931 | 61.4 | 18.8 | 33.4 | 6.2 | 20.7 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 159 | 250 | Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan | 72,863 | 48.2 | 4.5 | 45.3 | 0.7 | 32.8 | 4.0 | 12.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 172 | 237 | Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi | 75,057 | 56.0 | 5.7 | 46.1 | 1.1 | 34.6 | 3.4 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 178 | 231 | Birmingham Perry Barr | Ayoub Khan | 76,350 | 49.1 | 9.7 | 30.5 | 3.1 | 19.4 | 17.0 | 20.2 | 0.0 | MIN | LAB |
| 208 | 201 | Coventry East | Mary Creagh | 75,801 | 48.8 | 5.3 | 42.9 | 0.7 | 34.5 | 3.3 | 13.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 212 | 197 | Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss | 77,851 | 56.1 | 16.6 | 36.1 | 2.6 | 27.9 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 230 | 179 | Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips | 73,203 | 49.4 | 9.2 | 29.3 | 8.1 | 22.5 | 12.9 | 18.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 241 | 168 | Stafford | Leigh Ingham | 70,608 | 65.2 | 24.6 | 29.7 | 5.7 | 23.8 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 244 | 165 | Coventry South | Zarah Sultana | 76,262 | 56.0 | 12.7 | 34.8 | 3.2 | 29.2 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 252 | 157 | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne | 77,737 | 43.9 | 4.1 | 41.1 | 0.6 | 36.2 | 4.2 | 13.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 269 | 140 | Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton | 77,463 | 43.6 | 4.6 | 41.2 | 0.7 | 37.2 | 3.0 | 13.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 292 | 117 | Rugby | John Anthony Slinger | 74,901 | 65.4 | 27.7 | 28.1 | 4.5 | 25.8 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 295 | 113 | Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | 74,923 | 71.2 | 29.2 | 22.1 | 15.2 | 19.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 297 | 112 | West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes | 74,026 | 49.3 | 5.6 | 40.8 | 0.7 | 39.0 | 3.2 | 10.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 302 | 107 | Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner | 74,048 | 50.8 | 6.2 | 40.3 | 0.9 | 39.4 | 3.1 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 313 | 96 | Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | 77,473 | 43.1 | 4.9 | 38.1 | 0.5 | 38.1 | 2.7 | 15.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 319 | 89 | Sutton Coldfield | Andrew Mitchell | 74,080 | 65.2 | 28.9 | 25.0 | 5.6 | 25.5 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 320 | 88 | Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Gavin Williamson | 71,561 | 59.8 | 32.3 | 23.6 | 5.5 | 24.9 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 321 | 88 | Halesowen | Alex Ballinger | 68,549 | 56.3 | 20.1 | 28.6 | 6.1 | 29.8 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 322 | 86 | Solihull West and Shirley | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 71,813 | 65.3 | 24.8 | 23.0 | 11.2 | 24.3 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 329 | 80 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell | 73,693 | 47.9 | 4.9 | 37.4 | 0.6 | 39.6 | 2.6 | 15.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 332 | 77 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee | 67,839 | 58.4 | 17.3 | 30.7 | 4.8 | 33.0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 335 | 74 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz | 75,968 | 49.0 | 5.2 | 37.5 | 0.9 | 39.9 | 2.5 | 13.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 339 | 69 | Lichfield | Dave Robertson | 76,118 | 64.5 | 31.0 | 24.4 | 5.2 | 27.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 341 | 68 | Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling | 71,662 | 57.5 | 23.0 | 25.5 | 4.2 | 29.0 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 342 | 67 | Telford | Shaun Davies | 73,808 | 55.2 | 6.0 | 37.8 | 0.6 | 41.5 | 2.6 | 11.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 349 | 60 | Stourbridge | Cat Eccles | 68,311 | 58.4 | 26.5 | 25.7 | 3.3 | 30.3 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 351 | 57 | Wrekin, The | Mark Pritchard | 78,942 | 63.4 | 30.9 | 22.2 | 6.0 | 27.0 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 351 | 57 | Hereford and South Herefordshire | Jesse Norman | 72,203 | 63.1 | 30.0 | 22.0 | 8.0 | 27.0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 362 | 46 | Bromsgrove | Bradley Anthony Thomas | 76,468 | 65.9 | 31.8 | 21.1 | 8.4 | 27.0 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 370 | 39 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier | 77,994 | 58.5 | 27.5 | 23.5 | 2.6 | 31.2 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 370 | 38 | Shropshire North | Helen Morgan | 77,594 | 63.9 | 19.6 | 14.0 | 34.2 | 21.6 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 371 | 38 | Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge | 70,715 | 47.1 | 13.6 | 30.4 | 2.4 | 38.2 | 6.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 372 | 37 | Meriden and Solihull East | Saqib Bhatti | 73,659 | 59.8 | 25.4 | 21.7 | 6.7 | 29.8 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 373 | 36 | Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury | 76,974 | 55.8 | 22.4 | 24.0 | 3.8 | 32.2 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 374 | 35 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner | 68,263 | 60.0 | 27.5 | 23.9 | 3.6 | 32.3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 374 | 34 | Stratford-on-Avon | Manuela Perteghella | 75,714 | 69.9 | 35.8 | 5.8 | 37.5 | 14.2 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 379 | 30 | Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams | 69,790 | 51.8 | 6.3 | 35.3 | 0.6 | 44.7 | 1.9 | 11.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 380 | 28 | Shropshire South | Stuart Anderson | 76,723 | 67.3 | 34.4 | 13.0 | 19.8 | 23.0 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 381 | 27 | Redditch | Christopher James Bloore | 71,038 | 59.7 | 33.2 | 19.5 | 2.5 | 30.7 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 382 | 27 | Warwickshire North and Bedworth | Rachel Margaret Taylor | 69,752 | 58.7 | 26.0 | 23.1 | 2.6 | 34.3 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 384 | 24 | Herefordshire North | Ellie Chowns | 72,797 | 69.2 | 30.9 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 24.2 | 22.3 | 5.7 | 0.0 | Green | CON |
| 391 | 18 | Wyre Forest | Mark Garnier | 77,394 | 58.3 | 31.1 | 19.3 | 3.9 | 32.6 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 392 | 17 | Tamworth | Sarah Edwards | 75,059 | 58.3 | 30.8 | 19.6 | 2.3 | 33.7 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 393 | 16 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance | 74,100 | 43.0 | 13.2 | 26.1 | 1.5 | 40.5 | 6.1 | 12.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 394 | 15 | Dudley | Sonia Kumar | 70,151 | 51.0 | 21.2 | 21.8 | 3.6 | 36.3 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 395 | 13 | Droitwich and Evesham | Nigel Huddleston | 76,624 | 64.7 | 39.2 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 28.8 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 396 | 13 | Aldridge-Brownhills | Wendy Morton | 70,871 | 57.7 | 23.3 | 20.2 | 4.3 | 36.7 | 6.1 | 9.5 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 397 | 12 | Staffordshire Moorlands | Karen Bradley | 69,892 | 62.0 | 28.5 | 17.7 | 2.6 | 34.9 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 397 | 11 | Worcestershire West | Harriett Baldwin | 79,242 | 69.0 | 41.2 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 26.9 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 401 | 7 | Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Mike Wood | 71,662 | 63.0 | 41.8 | 11.2 | 2.5 | 32.2 | 3.2 | 9.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.