West Midlands: Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 27.6%15 21.7%06-69
LAB 34.0%38 17.9%032-326
LIB 8.8%2 11.0%00+02
Reform 18.1%0 32.9%360+3636
Green 6.6%1 11.9%00+01
Other 4.9%1 4.6%20+23

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Birmingham Ladywood' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Shropshire North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Tamworth (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Birmingham Ladywood (prediction: MIN).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
33351Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood83,69343.78.024.44.49.121.133.10.0LABMIN
62323Warwick and Leamington Matt Western76,29464.518.029.911.421.514.94.30.0LABLAB
62322Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Tahir Ali76,93654.112.319.27.810.720.829.20.0LABMIN
69316Coventry South Zarah Sultana76,26256.012.238.25.831.78.23.90.0LABLAB
74311Shrewsbury Julia Buckley76,63367.38.642.26.036.64.02.60.0LABLAB
80305Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Kaur Gill71,78752.119.626.210.022.117.15.00.0LABLAB
80304Birmingham Perry Barr Ayoub Khan76,35049.112.319.24.215.017.931.50.0MINMIN
101284Coventry East Mary Creagh75,80148.86.041.61.840.84.84.90.0LABLAB
108277Birmingham Selly Oak Alistair Carns75,67850.815.825.28.225.119.75.90.0LABLAB
113272Coventry North West Taiwo Owatemi75,05756.07.140.43.140.95.03.50.0LABReform
123262Smethwick Gurinder Singh Josan72,86348.213.328.55.930.815.55.90.0LABReform
124261Wolverhampton West Warinder Juss77,85156.121.025.38.127.813.93.80.0LABReform
135250Worcester Tom Collins74,93161.415.228.09.432.211.73.60.0LABReform
137248West Bromwich Sarah Coombes74,02649.36.439.42.344.14.33.60.0LABReform
147238Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips73,20349.414.818.28.724.517.616.20.0LABReform
167217Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Gavin Williamson71,56159.838.615.510.423.89.91.80.0CONCON
171213Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright74,92371.228.415.519.824.510.41.50.0CONCON
181204Telford Shaun Davies73,80855.25.538.42.148.12.83.20.0LABReform
196189Rugby John Anthony Slinger74,90165.423.220.910.632.210.03.10.0LABReform
223162Stafford Leigh Ingham70,60865.224.119.48.433.611.13.40.0LABReform
225160Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden77,47343.18.530.92.945.47.05.40.0LABReform
236149Birmingham Northfield Laurence Turner74,04850.817.721.58.536.512.33.50.0LABReform
238147Birmingham Erdington Paulette Hamilton77,46343.616.820.66.835.715.64.50.0LABReform
255130Walsall and Bloxwich Valerie Vaz75,96849.018.314.44.431.015.416.60.0LABReform
261124Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Liam Byrne77,73743.915.015.15.632.615.915.70.0LABReform
265119Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin79,24269.031.79.518.027.811.31.80.0CONCON
277108Newcastle-under-Lyme Adam Jogee67,83958.422.218.28.838.09.73.10.0LABReform
279105Stratford-on-Avon Manuela Perteghella75,71469.923.57.532.027.47.42.10.0LIBLIB
283102Stourbridge Cat Eccles68,31158.425.816.98.237.09.13.10.0LABReform
284101Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell73,69347.916.419.96.540.012.94.30.0LABReform
28798Redditch Christopher James Bloore71,03859.723.017.79.038.09.23.10.0LABReform
29293Burton and Uttoxeter Jacob Collier77,99458.523.117.38.438.29.43.60.0LABReform
29689Lichfield Dave Robertson76,11864.531.414.78.735.96.82.50.0LABReform
30283Halesowen Alex Ballinger68,54956.324.616.28.037.910.13.10.0LABReform
30480Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell74,08065.245.010.05.131.96.21.80.0CONCON
30580Nuneaton Jodie Gosling71,66257.521.617.27.539.111.13.60.0LABReform
30975Solihull West and Shirley Neil Shastri-Hurst71,81365.343.58.28.131.07.41.90.0CONCON
30975Herefordshire North Ellie Chowns72,79769.223.64.86.927.632.84.30.0GreenGreen
31570Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard78,94263.430.913.08.736.58.02.80.0CONReform
31768Stoke-on-Trent North David Williams69,79051.818.119.87.543.48.62.50.0LABReform
32065Shropshire South Stuart Anderson76,72367.324.49.523.833.37.31.70.0CONReform
32461Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman72,20363.132.211.89.035.98.22.80.0CONReform
33352Tamworth Sarah Edwards75,05958.323.116.67.841.78.02.80.0LABReform
33847Wolverhampton North East Sureena Brackenridge70,71547.118.817.86.843.49.83.30.0LABReform
34342Tipton and Wednesbury Antonia Bance74,10043.016.318.66.644.810.63.10.0LABReform
34341Bromsgrove Bradley Anthony Thomas76,46865.940.98.77.235.05.52.70.0CONCON
35035Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley69,89262.033.912.35.640.16.61.40.0CONReform
35232Meriden and Solihull East Saqib Bhatti73,65959.842.77.95.436.06.51.50.0CONCON
35728Cannock Chase Josh Newbury76,97455.821.015.56.845.08.92.70.0LABReform
35926Warwickshire North and Bedworth Rachel Margaret Taylor69,75258.726.413.66.643.47.52.50.0LABReform
36222Droitwich and Evesham Nigel Huddleston76,62464.742.46.36.237.26.61.30.0CONCON
36619Stoke-on-Trent South Allison Gardner68,26360.038.28.84.340.75.42.70.0LABReform
36718Dudley Sonia Kumar70,15151.026.412.25.644.28.33.20.0LABReform
36717Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Mike Wood71,66263.042.37.04.539.75.31.10.0CONCON
37213Wyre Forest Mark Garnier77,39458.337.37.74.741.26.32.80.0CONReform
37411Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton70,87157.740.56.94.241.95.41.10.0CONReform
3759Shropshire North Helen Morgan77,59463.95.61.850.737.82.21.90.0LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.