| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.6% | 15 | 25.5% | 2 | 1 | +1 | 16 |
| LAB | 34.0% | 38 | 25.7% | 0 | 17 | -17 | 21 |
| LIB | 8.8% | 2 | 8.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 18.1% | 0 | 27.9% | 15 | 0 | +15 | 15 |
| Green | 6.6% | 1 | 8.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 3.6% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 |
This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Birmingham Ladywood' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Herefordshire North', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Sutton Coldfield (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Smethwick (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 345 | Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood | 83,693 | 43.7 | 4.8 | 34.1 | 4.6 | 12.2 | 11.2 | 33.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 77 | 340 | Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan | 72,863 | 48.2 | 10.8 | 39.6 | 2.8 | 28.1 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 1.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 93 | 324 | Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | 77,473 | 43.1 | 14.8 | 41.9 | 2.2 | 31.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 100 | 317 | Coventry East | Mary Creagh | 75,801 | 48.8 | 14.7 | 41.0 | 3.2 | 28.2 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 121 | 296 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns | 75,678 | 50.8 | 13.0 | 36.8 | 5.9 | 28.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 133 | 283 | Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton | 77,463 | 43.6 | 13.8 | 35.3 | 3.2 | 35.8 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 139 | 278 | Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi | 75,057 | 56.0 | 18.1 | 38.4 | 4.5 | 28.5 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 141 | 276 | West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes | 74,026 | 49.3 | 17.9 | 37.8 | 3.5 | 31.3 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 153 | 264 | Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western | 76,294 | 64.5 | 21.4 | 40.3 | 7.7 | 19.6 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 156 | 260 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell | 73,693 | 47.9 | 15.5 | 33.9 | 2.8 | 37.9 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 163 | 254 | Coventry South | Zarah Sultana | 76,262 | 56.0 | 21.6 | 39.2 | 5.8 | 23.4 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 167 | 250 | Telford | Shaun Davies | 73,808 | 55.2 | 19.3 | 36.3 | 3.7 | 33.7 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 169 | 247 | Birmingham Perry Barr | Ayoub Khan | 76,350 | 49.1 | 9.1 | 25.7 | 3.4 | 16.9 | 8.7 | 35.5 | 0.7 | MIN | MIN |
| 171 | 246 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Kaur Gill | 71,787 | 52.1 | 19.8 | 35.9 | 5.5 | 25.8 | 10.4 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 173 | 244 | Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley | 76,633 | 67.3 | 20.3 | 36.0 | 12.8 | 24.1 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 181 | 236 | Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali | 76,936 | 54.1 | 7.3 | 22.3 | 11.1 | 20.3 | 12.5 | 17.2 | 9.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 181 | 235 | Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips | 73,203 | 49.4 | 7.9 | 22.8 | 9.8 | 23.0 | 7.3 | 29.3 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 199 | 218 | Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss | 77,851 | 56.1 | 24.1 | 35.8 | 3.1 | 25.9 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 203 | 213 | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne | 77,737 | 43.9 | 11.4 | 22.8 | 2.7 | 27.7 | 8.7 | 26.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 207 | 210 | Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge | 70,715 | 47.1 | 24.5 | 34.5 | 2.9 | 32.0 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 211 | 205 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz | 75,968 | 49.0 | 15.8 | 25.2 | 2.1 | 28.4 | 8.0 | 20.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 217 | 200 | Worcester | Tom Collins | 74,931 | 61.4 | 22.8 | 32.0 | 8.4 | 24.1 | 12.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 222 | 195 | Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner | 74,048 | 50.8 | 23.2 | 31.2 | 4.6 | 30.9 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 223 | 193 | Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams | 69,790 | 51.8 | 24.1 | 31.9 | 2.5 | 35.0 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 232 | 185 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee | 67,839 | 58.4 | 25.4 | 31.9 | 4.9 | 31.3 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 243 | 173 | Halesowen | Alex Ballinger | 68,549 | 56.3 | 25.5 | 30.5 | 5.7 | 30.9 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 248 | 168 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance | 74,100 | 43.0 | 24.1 | 28.5 | 1.8 | 37.0 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 251 | 166 | Stafford | Leigh Ingham | 70,608 | 65.2 | 28.1 | 31.8 | 3.5 | 28.1 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 261 | 156 | Rugby | John Anthony Slinger | 74,901 | 65.4 | 28.7 | 31.4 | 6.5 | 26.1 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 265 | 151 | Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling | 71,662 | 57.5 | 26.3 | 28.5 | 3.2 | 30.8 | 8.9 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 269 | 148 | Stourbridge | Cat Eccles | 68,311 | 58.4 | 28.6 | 30.0 | 3.9 | 28.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 272 | 144 | Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury | 76,974 | 55.8 | 27.1 | 28.0 | 2.3 | 35.8 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 282 | 134 | Warwickshire North and Bedworth | Rachel Margaret Taylor | 69,752 | 58.7 | 28.5 | 27.5 | 2.9 | 35.0 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 282 | 134 | Dudley | Sonia Kumar | 70,151 | 51.0 | 26.7 | 25.7 | 2.9 | 36.9 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 282 | 134 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier | 77,994 | 58.5 | 28.4 | 27.1 | 3.5 | 29.9 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 288 | 128 | Tamworth | Sarah Edwards | 75,059 | 58.3 | 29.7 | 26.6 | 3.2 | 34.4 | 5.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 295 | 122 | Redditch | Christopher James Bloore | 71,038 | 59.7 | 30.9 | 26.5 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 296 | 121 | Lichfield | Dave Robertson | 76,118 | 64.5 | 31.3 | 26.7 | 7.1 | 29.3 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
| 297 | 119 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner | 68,263 | 60.0 | 31.1 | 26.3 | 3.7 | 32.6 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 318 | 99 | Wrekin, The | Mark Pritchard | 78,942 | 63.4 | 30.5 | 22.4 | 9.3 | 29.5 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 318 | 98 | Wyre Forest | Mark Garnier | 77,394 | 58.3 | 29.9 | 21.8 | 6.1 | 33.1 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 1.3 | CON | Reform |
| 322 | 95 | Staffordshire Moorlands | Karen Bradley | 69,892 | 62.0 | 33.2 | 24.2 | 3.4 | 32.1 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 323 | 94 | Hereford and South Herefordshire | Jesse Norman | 72,203 | 63.1 | 30.5 | 21.4 | 11.4 | 27.7 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | CON | CON |
| 335 | 82 | Sutton Coldfield | Andrew Mitchell | 74,080 | 65.2 | 36.1 | 24.6 | 5.2 | 25.9 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 77 | Bromsgrove | Bradley Anthony Thomas | 76,468 | 65.9 | 30.6 | 18.4 | 14.4 | 29.8 | 5.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | CON | CON |
| 361 | 56 | Solihull West and Shirley | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 71,813 | 65.3 | 32.6 | 16.4 | 16.6 | 24.2 | 8.8 | 1.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 363 | 54 | Meriden and Solihull East | Saqib Bhatti | 73,659 | 59.8 | 36.0 | 19.3 | 7.4 | 28.8 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 365 | 52 | Aldridge-Brownhills | Wendy Morton | 70,871 | 57.7 | 36.7 | 19.9 | 4.2 | 33.1 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 373 | 44 | Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | 74,923 | 71.2 | 34.2 | 15.6 | 19.4 | 22.6 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 374 | 42 | Shropshire North | Helen Morgan | 77,594 | 63.9 | 19.8 | 1.1 | 52.6 | 22.5 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 376 | 41 | Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Gavin Williamson | 71,561 | 59.8 | 44.3 | 25.3 | 6.7 | 13.5 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | CON | CON |
| 379 | 38 | Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Mike Wood | 71,662 | 63.0 | 38.1 | 17.9 | 4.5 | 32.2 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 0.6 | CON | CON |
| 393 | 24 | Droitwich and Evesham | Nigel Huddleston | 76,624 | 64.7 | 38.1 | 13.7 | 10.1 | 28.3 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | CON | CON |
| 399 | 18 | Shropshire South | Stuart Anderson | 76,723 | 67.3 | 32.0 | 5.0 | 30.7 | 26.7 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 401 | 16 | Worcestershire West | Harriett Baldwin | 79,242 | 69.0 | 34.0 | 6.8 | 23.9 | 23.8 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
| 403 | 13 | Stratford-on-Avon | Manuela Perteghella | 75,714 | 69.9 | 28.7 | 1.1 | 44.0 | 22.1 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 403 | 13 | Herefordshire North | Ellie Chowns | 72,797 | 69.2 | 29.3 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 22.4 | 44.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | Green | Green |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.