West Midlands: Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 27.6%15 19.7%06-69
LAB 34.0%38 18.1%034-344
LIB 8.8%2 10.1%00+02
Reform 18.1%0 31.6%370+3737
Green 6.6%1 15.3%30+34
Other 4.9%1 5.1%00+01

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Shrewsbury' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Shropshire North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Shropshire North (prediction: LIB), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Shrewsbury (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
20310Shrewsbury Julia Buckley76,63367.310.239.57.331.87.51.62.0LABLAB
22308Warwick and Leamington Matt Western76,29464.518.726.510.619.121.02.12.0LABLAB
36293Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood83,69343.76.118.06.213.634.421.60.1LABGreen
47283Coventry South Zarah Sultana76,26256.016.225.39.622.820.52.53.0LABLAB
56273Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Tahir Ali76,93654.18.016.710.815.126.023.30.1LABGreen
63267Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Kaur Gill71,78752.117.122.010.421.820.92.85.0LABLAB
72257Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright74,92371.228.518.217.821.012.10.91.5CONCON
75254Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Gavin Williamson71,56159.834.219.48.922.811.30.82.6CONCON
89241Wolverhampton West Warinder Juss77,85156.119.422.57.727.216.82.43.9LABReform
90239Birmingham Perry Barr Ayoub Khan76,35049.110.516.16.620.821.024.90.1MINMIN
93237Worcester Tom Collins74,93161.418.121.99.426.819.42.22.2LABReform
93236Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell74,08065.228.420.610.825.812.01.21.1CONCON
100230Coventry North West Taiwo Owatemi75,05756.014.823.49.429.018.92.42.1LABReform
115215Stafford Leigh Ingham70,60865.223.920.78.728.115.81.11.7LABReform
122208West Bromwich Sarah Coombes74,02649.310.828.74.836.413.32.53.4LABReform
137192Solihull West and Shirley Neil Shastri-Hurst71,81365.330.915.314.224.412.21.81.2CONCON
138192Rugby John Anthony Slinger74,90165.420.122.19.931.213.21.51.9LABReform
145185Telford Shaun Davies73,80855.26.835.82.245.36.91.81.2LABReform
147183Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips73,20349.48.716.510.926.615.618.92.8LABReform
161169Newcastle-under-Lyme Adam Jogee67,83958.420.420.49.732.115.01.11.3LABReform
170160Smethwick Gurinder Singh Josan72,86348.210.520.65.233.422.03.44.9LABReform
183147Halesowen Alex Ballinger68,54956.320.619.310.432.814.21.11.6LABReform
193136Birmingham Selly Oak Alistair Carns75,67850.88.915.15.229.134.62.24.8LABGreen
195135Coventry East Mary Creagh75,80148.812.421.25.235.220.91.93.2LABReform
201129Birmingham Northfield Laurence Turner74,04850.817.519.48.033.817.12.12.1LABReform
206124Lichfield Dave Robertson76,11864.522.419.410.034.311.01.21.7LABReform
208122Nuneaton Jodie Gosling71,66257.520.819.16.834.215.92.01.2LABReform
214115Stratford-on-Avon Manuela Perteghella75,71469.922.58.731.324.69.41.02.6LIBLIB
228102Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard78,94263.421.717.79.534.713.01.42.0CONReform
229101Stourbridge Cat Eccles68,31158.419.819.18.536.412.22.51.6LABReform
230100Wolverhampton North East Sureena Brackenridge70,71547.118.419.86.937.115.11.21.5LABReform
23297Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin79,24269.040.59.211.126.710.60.81.1CONCON
24189Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley69,89262.024.220.15.038.510.70.80.7CONReform
24882Redditch Christopher James Bloore71,03859.720.518.66.737.912.92.01.5LABReform
25278Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman72,20363.126.115.010.434.411.11.11.9CONReform
26070Burton and Uttoxeter Jacob Collier77,99458.518.618.66.738.712.43.11.8LABReform
26367Shropshire South Stuart Anderson76,72367.325.311.418.431.710.61.01.7CONReform
26466Bromsgrove Bradley Anthony Thomas76,46865.930.712.910.333.18.91.12.9CONReform
27060Stoke-on-Trent South Allison Gardner68,26360.021.516.79.137.810.71.42.8LABReform
27258Stoke-on-Trent North David Williams69,79051.815.619.96.741.312.32.02.3LABReform
27752Meriden and Solihull East Saqib Bhatti73,65959.842.39.95.831.88.11.11.2CONCON
27951Birmingham Erdington Paulette Hamilton77,46343.612.616.96.738.918.92.14.0LABReform
28050Cannock Chase Josh Newbury76,97455.820.517.76.339.813.51.01.3LABReform
28049Herefordshire North Ellie Chowns72,79769.225.16.07.228.129.92.11.5GreenGreen
28248Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Liam Byrne77,73743.910.213.55.535.619.412.53.3LABReform
29337Dudley Sonia Kumar70,15151.021.016.36.140.312.71.02.7LABReform
29436Tamworth Sarah Edwards75,05958.319.918.06.141.911.31.21.7LABReform
29535Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden77,47343.111.819.14.143.217.92.31.6LABReform
30030Walsall and Bloxwich Valerie Vaz75,96849.017.012.37.237.116.59.90.1LABReform
30327Warwickshire North and Bedworth Rachel Margaret Taylor69,75258.719.217.37.242.311.31.31.4LABReform
30426Tipton and Wednesbury Antonia Bance74,10043.015.517.94.743.013.92.03.1LABReform
30425Droitwich and Evesham Nigel Huddleston76,62464.743.68.06.133.17.21.01.0CONCON
30723Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell73,69347.911.717.44.743.417.01.74.0LABReform
31019Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton70,87157.738.19.85.337.57.01.01.2CONCON
31118Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Mike Wood71,66263.041.88.84.437.05.80.91.4CONCON
31317Wyre Forest Mark Garnier77,39458.329.411.07.039.49.11.22.9CONReform
31910Shropshire North Helen Morgan77,59463.95.51.950.635.72.81.22.3LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.