| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.6% | 15 | 19.7% | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| LAB | 34.0% | 38 | 18.1% | 0 | 34 | -34 | 4 |
| LIB | 8.8% | 2 | 10.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 18.1% | 0 | 31.6% | 37 | 0 | +37 | 37 |
| Green | 6.6% | 1 | 15.3% | 3 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 5.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Shrewsbury' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Shropshire North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Shropshire North (prediction: LIB), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Shrewsbury (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 310 | Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley | 76,633 | 67.3 | 10.2 | 39.5 | 7.3 | 31.8 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 22 | 308 | Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western | 76,294 | 64.5 | 18.7 | 26.5 | 10.6 | 19.1 | 21.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 36 | 293 | Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood | 83,693 | 43.7 | 6.1 | 18.0 | 6.2 | 13.6 | 34.4 | 21.6 | 0.1 | LAB | Green |
| 47 | 283 | Coventry South | Zarah Sultana | 76,262 | 56.0 | 16.2 | 25.3 | 9.6 | 22.8 | 20.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 56 | 273 | Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali | 76,936 | 54.1 | 8.0 | 16.7 | 10.8 | 15.1 | 26.0 | 23.3 | 0.1 | LAB | Green |
| 63 | 267 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Kaur Gill | 71,787 | 52.1 | 17.1 | 22.0 | 10.4 | 21.8 | 20.9 | 2.8 | 5.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 72 | 257 | Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | 74,923 | 71.2 | 28.5 | 18.2 | 17.8 | 21.0 | 12.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | CON | CON |
| 75 | 254 | Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Gavin Williamson | 71,561 | 59.8 | 34.2 | 19.4 | 8.9 | 22.8 | 11.3 | 0.8 | 2.6 | CON | CON |
| 89 | 241 | Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss | 77,851 | 56.1 | 19.4 | 22.5 | 7.7 | 27.2 | 16.8 | 2.4 | 3.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 90 | 239 | Birmingham Perry Barr | Ayoub Khan | 76,350 | 49.1 | 10.5 | 16.1 | 6.6 | 20.8 | 21.0 | 24.9 | 0.1 | MIN | MIN |
| 93 | 237 | Worcester | Tom Collins | 74,931 | 61.4 | 18.1 | 21.9 | 9.4 | 26.8 | 19.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 93 | 236 | Sutton Coldfield | Andrew Mitchell | 74,080 | 65.2 | 28.4 | 20.6 | 10.8 | 25.8 | 12.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | CON | CON |
| 100 | 230 | Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi | 75,057 | 56.0 | 14.8 | 23.4 | 9.4 | 29.0 | 18.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 115 | 215 | Stafford | Leigh Ingham | 70,608 | 65.2 | 23.9 | 20.7 | 8.7 | 28.1 | 15.8 | 1.1 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 122 | 208 | West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes | 74,026 | 49.3 | 10.8 | 28.7 | 4.8 | 36.4 | 13.3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 137 | 192 | Solihull West and Shirley | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 71,813 | 65.3 | 30.9 | 15.3 | 14.2 | 24.4 | 12.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | CON | CON |
| 138 | 192 | Rugby | John Anthony Slinger | 74,901 | 65.4 | 20.1 | 22.1 | 9.9 | 31.2 | 13.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 145 | 185 | Telford | Shaun Davies | 73,808 | 55.2 | 6.8 | 35.8 | 2.2 | 45.3 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 147 | 183 | Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips | 73,203 | 49.4 | 8.7 | 16.5 | 10.9 | 26.6 | 15.6 | 18.9 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 161 | 169 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee | 67,839 | 58.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 9.7 | 32.1 | 15.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 170 | 160 | Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan | 72,863 | 48.2 | 10.5 | 20.6 | 5.2 | 33.4 | 22.0 | 3.4 | 4.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 183 | 147 | Halesowen | Alex Ballinger | 68,549 | 56.3 | 20.6 | 19.3 | 10.4 | 32.8 | 14.2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 193 | 136 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns | 75,678 | 50.8 | 8.9 | 15.1 | 5.2 | 29.1 | 34.6 | 2.2 | 4.8 | LAB | Green |
| 195 | 135 | Coventry East | Mary Creagh | 75,801 | 48.8 | 12.4 | 21.2 | 5.2 | 35.2 | 20.9 | 1.9 | 3.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 201 | 129 | Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner | 74,048 | 50.8 | 17.5 | 19.4 | 8.0 | 33.8 | 17.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 206 | 124 | Lichfield | Dave Robertson | 76,118 | 64.5 | 22.4 | 19.4 | 10.0 | 34.3 | 11.0 | 1.2 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 208 | 122 | Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling | 71,662 | 57.5 | 20.8 | 19.1 | 6.8 | 34.2 | 15.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 214 | 115 | Stratford-on-Avon | Manuela Perteghella | 75,714 | 69.9 | 22.5 | 8.7 | 31.3 | 24.6 | 9.4 | 1.0 | 2.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 228 | 102 | Wrekin, The | Mark Pritchard | 78,942 | 63.4 | 21.7 | 17.7 | 9.5 | 34.7 | 13.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | CON | Reform |
| 229 | 101 | Stourbridge | Cat Eccles | 68,311 | 58.4 | 19.8 | 19.1 | 8.5 | 36.4 | 12.2 | 2.5 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 230 | 100 | Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge | 70,715 | 47.1 | 18.4 | 19.8 | 6.9 | 37.1 | 15.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 232 | 97 | Worcestershire West | Harriett Baldwin | 79,242 | 69.0 | 40.5 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 26.7 | 10.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | CON | CON |
| 241 | 89 | Staffordshire Moorlands | Karen Bradley | 69,892 | 62.0 | 24.2 | 20.1 | 5.0 | 38.5 | 10.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | CON | Reform |
| 248 | 82 | Redditch | Christopher James Bloore | 71,038 | 59.7 | 20.5 | 18.6 | 6.7 | 37.9 | 12.9 | 2.0 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 252 | 78 | Hereford and South Herefordshire | Jesse Norman | 72,203 | 63.1 | 26.1 | 15.0 | 10.4 | 34.4 | 11.1 | 1.1 | 1.9 | CON | Reform |
| 260 | 70 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier | 77,994 | 58.5 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 6.7 | 38.7 | 12.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 263 | 67 | Shropshire South | Stuart Anderson | 76,723 | 67.3 | 25.3 | 11.4 | 18.4 | 31.7 | 10.6 | 1.0 | 1.7 | CON | Reform |
| 264 | 66 | Bromsgrove | Bradley Anthony Thomas | 76,468 | 65.9 | 30.7 | 12.9 | 10.3 | 33.1 | 8.9 | 1.1 | 2.9 | CON | Reform |
| 270 | 60 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner | 68,263 | 60.0 | 21.5 | 16.7 | 9.1 | 37.8 | 10.7 | 1.4 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 272 | 58 | Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams | 69,790 | 51.8 | 15.6 | 19.9 | 6.7 | 41.3 | 12.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 277 | 52 | Meriden and Solihull East | Saqib Bhatti | 73,659 | 59.8 | 42.3 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 31.8 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | CON | CON |
| 279 | 51 | Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton | 77,463 | 43.6 | 12.6 | 16.9 | 6.7 | 38.9 | 18.9 | 2.1 | 4.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 280 | 50 | Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury | 76,974 | 55.8 | 20.5 | 17.7 | 6.3 | 39.8 | 13.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 280 | 49 | Herefordshire North | Ellie Chowns | 72,797 | 69.2 | 25.1 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 28.1 | 29.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | Green | Green |
| 282 | 48 | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne | 77,737 | 43.9 | 10.2 | 13.5 | 5.5 | 35.6 | 19.4 | 12.5 | 3.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 293 | 37 | Dudley | Sonia Kumar | 70,151 | 51.0 | 21.0 | 16.3 | 6.1 | 40.3 | 12.7 | 1.0 | 2.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 294 | 36 | Tamworth | Sarah Edwards | 75,059 | 58.3 | 19.9 | 18.0 | 6.1 | 41.9 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 295 | 35 | Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | 77,473 | 43.1 | 11.8 | 19.1 | 4.1 | 43.2 | 17.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 300 | 30 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz | 75,968 | 49.0 | 17.0 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 37.1 | 16.5 | 9.9 | 0.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 303 | 27 | Warwickshire North and Bedworth | Rachel Margaret Taylor | 69,752 | 58.7 | 19.2 | 17.3 | 7.2 | 42.3 | 11.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 304 | 26 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance | 74,100 | 43.0 | 15.5 | 17.9 | 4.7 | 43.0 | 13.9 | 2.0 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 304 | 25 | Droitwich and Evesham | Nigel Huddleston | 76,624 | 64.7 | 43.6 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 33.1 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | CON | CON |
| 307 | 23 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell | 73,693 | 47.9 | 11.7 | 17.4 | 4.7 | 43.4 | 17.0 | 1.7 | 4.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 310 | 19 | Aldridge-Brownhills | Wendy Morton | 70,871 | 57.7 | 38.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 37.5 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | CON | CON |
| 311 | 18 | Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Mike Wood | 71,662 | 63.0 | 41.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 37.0 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 1.4 | CON | CON |
| 313 | 17 | Wyre Forest | Mark Garnier | 77,394 | 58.3 | 29.4 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 39.4 | 9.1 | 1.2 | 2.9 | CON | Reform |
| 319 | 10 | Shropshire North | Helen Morgan | 77,594 | 63.9 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 50.6 | 35.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 2.3 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.