| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.6% | 15 | 21.7% | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| LAB | 34.0% | 38 | 17.9% | 0 | 32 | -32 | 6 |
| LIB | 8.8% | 2 | 11.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 18.1% | 0 | 32.9% | 36 | 0 | +36 | 36 |
| Green | 6.6% | 1 | 11.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 4.6% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Birmingham Ladywood' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Shropshire North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Tamworth (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Birmingham Ladywood (prediction: MIN).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 351 | Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood | 83,693 | 43.7 | 8.0 | 24.4 | 4.4 | 9.1 | 21.1 | 33.1 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 62 | 323 | Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western | 76,294 | 64.5 | 18.0 | 29.9 | 11.4 | 21.5 | 14.9 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 62 | 322 | Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali | 76,936 | 54.1 | 12.3 | 19.2 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 20.8 | 29.2 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 69 | 316 | Coventry South | Zarah Sultana | 76,262 | 56.0 | 12.2 | 38.2 | 5.8 | 31.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 74 | 311 | Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley | 76,633 | 67.3 | 8.6 | 42.2 | 6.0 | 36.6 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 80 | 305 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Kaur Gill | 71,787 | 52.1 | 19.6 | 26.2 | 10.0 | 22.1 | 17.1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 80 | 304 | Birmingham Perry Barr | Ayoub Khan | 76,350 | 49.1 | 12.3 | 19.2 | 4.2 | 15.0 | 17.9 | 31.5 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 101 | 284 | Coventry East | Mary Creagh | 75,801 | 48.8 | 6.0 | 41.6 | 1.8 | 40.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 108 | 277 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns | 75,678 | 50.8 | 15.8 | 25.2 | 8.2 | 25.1 | 19.7 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 113 | 272 | Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi | 75,057 | 56.0 | 7.1 | 40.4 | 3.1 | 40.9 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 123 | 262 | Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan | 72,863 | 48.2 | 13.3 | 28.5 | 5.9 | 30.8 | 15.5 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 124 | 261 | Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss | 77,851 | 56.1 | 21.0 | 25.3 | 8.1 | 27.8 | 13.9 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 135 | 250 | Worcester | Tom Collins | 74,931 | 61.4 | 15.2 | 28.0 | 9.4 | 32.2 | 11.7 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 137 | 248 | West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes | 74,026 | 49.3 | 6.4 | 39.4 | 2.3 | 44.1 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 147 | 238 | Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips | 73,203 | 49.4 | 14.8 | 18.2 | 8.7 | 24.5 | 17.6 | 16.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 167 | 217 | Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Gavin Williamson | 71,561 | 59.8 | 38.6 | 15.5 | 10.4 | 23.8 | 9.9 | 1.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 171 | 213 | Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | 74,923 | 71.2 | 28.4 | 15.5 | 19.8 | 24.5 | 10.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 181 | 204 | Telford | Shaun Davies | 73,808 | 55.2 | 5.5 | 38.4 | 2.1 | 48.1 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 196 | 189 | Rugby | John Anthony Slinger | 74,901 | 65.4 | 23.2 | 20.9 | 10.6 | 32.2 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 223 | 162 | Stafford | Leigh Ingham | 70,608 | 65.2 | 24.1 | 19.4 | 8.4 | 33.6 | 11.1 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 225 | 160 | Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | 77,473 | 43.1 | 8.5 | 30.9 | 2.9 | 45.4 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 236 | 149 | Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner | 74,048 | 50.8 | 17.7 | 21.5 | 8.5 | 36.5 | 12.3 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 238 | 147 | Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton | 77,463 | 43.6 | 16.8 | 20.6 | 6.8 | 35.7 | 15.6 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 255 | 130 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz | 75,968 | 49.0 | 18.3 | 14.4 | 4.4 | 31.0 | 15.4 | 16.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 261 | 124 | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne | 77,737 | 43.9 | 15.0 | 15.1 | 5.6 | 32.6 | 15.9 | 15.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 265 | 119 | Worcestershire West | Harriett Baldwin | 79,242 | 69.0 | 31.7 | 9.5 | 18.0 | 27.8 | 11.3 | 1.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 277 | 108 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee | 67,839 | 58.4 | 22.2 | 18.2 | 8.8 | 38.0 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 279 | 105 | Stratford-on-Avon | Manuela Perteghella | 75,714 | 69.9 | 23.5 | 7.5 | 32.0 | 27.4 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 283 | 102 | Stourbridge | Cat Eccles | 68,311 | 58.4 | 25.8 | 16.9 | 8.2 | 37.0 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 284 | 101 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell | 73,693 | 47.9 | 16.4 | 19.9 | 6.5 | 40.0 | 12.9 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 287 | 98 | Redditch | Christopher James Bloore | 71,038 | 59.7 | 23.0 | 17.7 | 9.0 | 38.0 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 292 | 93 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier | 77,994 | 58.5 | 23.1 | 17.3 | 8.4 | 38.2 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 296 | 89 | Lichfield | Dave Robertson | 76,118 | 64.5 | 31.4 | 14.7 | 8.7 | 35.9 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 302 | 83 | Halesowen | Alex Ballinger | 68,549 | 56.3 | 24.6 | 16.2 | 8.0 | 37.9 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 304 | 80 | Sutton Coldfield | Andrew Mitchell | 74,080 | 65.2 | 45.0 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 31.9 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 305 | 80 | Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling | 71,662 | 57.5 | 21.6 | 17.2 | 7.5 | 39.1 | 11.1 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 309 | 75 | Solihull West and Shirley | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 71,813 | 65.3 | 43.5 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 31.0 | 7.4 | 1.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 309 | 75 | Herefordshire North | Ellie Chowns | 72,797 | 69.2 | 23.6 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 27.6 | 32.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 315 | 70 | Wrekin, The | Mark Pritchard | 78,942 | 63.4 | 30.9 | 13.0 | 8.7 | 36.5 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 317 | 68 | Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams | 69,790 | 51.8 | 18.1 | 19.8 | 7.5 | 43.4 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 320 | 65 | Shropshire South | Stuart Anderson | 76,723 | 67.3 | 24.4 | 9.5 | 23.8 | 33.3 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 324 | 61 | Hereford and South Herefordshire | Jesse Norman | 72,203 | 63.1 | 32.2 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 35.9 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 333 | 52 | Tamworth | Sarah Edwards | 75,059 | 58.3 | 23.1 | 16.6 | 7.8 | 41.7 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 338 | 47 | Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge | 70,715 | 47.1 | 18.8 | 17.8 | 6.8 | 43.4 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 343 | 42 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance | 74,100 | 43.0 | 16.3 | 18.6 | 6.6 | 44.8 | 10.6 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 343 | 41 | Bromsgrove | Bradley Anthony Thomas | 76,468 | 65.9 | 40.9 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 35.0 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 350 | 35 | Staffordshire Moorlands | Karen Bradley | 69,892 | 62.0 | 33.9 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 40.1 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 352 | 32 | Meriden and Solihull East | Saqib Bhatti | 73,659 | 59.8 | 42.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 36.0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 357 | 28 | Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury | 76,974 | 55.8 | 21.0 | 15.5 | 6.8 | 45.0 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 359 | 26 | Warwickshire North and Bedworth | Rachel Margaret Taylor | 69,752 | 58.7 | 26.4 | 13.6 | 6.6 | 43.4 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 362 | 22 | Droitwich and Evesham | Nigel Huddleston | 76,624 | 64.7 | 42.4 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 37.2 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 366 | 19 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner | 68,263 | 60.0 | 38.2 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 40.7 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 367 | 18 | Dudley | Sonia Kumar | 70,151 | 51.0 | 26.4 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 44.2 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 367 | 17 | Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Mike Wood | 71,662 | 63.0 | 42.3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 39.7 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 372 | 13 | Wyre Forest | Mark Garnier | 77,394 | 58.3 | 37.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 41.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 374 | 11 | Aldridge-Brownhills | Wendy Morton | 70,871 | 57.7 | 40.5 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 41.9 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 375 | 9 | Shropshire North | Helen Morgan | 77,594 | 63.9 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 50.7 | 37.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.