Yorks/Humber: Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 22.8%9 20.0%02-27
LAB 40.9%43 29.5%023-2320
LIB 7.1%1 9.5%00+01
Reform 16.7%0 29.2%250+2525
Green 7.5%0 9.1%00+00
Other 5.0%1 2.6%00+01

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Sheffield Hallam' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Richmond and Northallerton', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Richmond and Northallerton (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Leeds North East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
12361Sheffield Hallam Olivia Blake73,03370.710.047.521.29.710.50.90.1LABLAB
13360Sheffield Central Abtisam Mohamed60,77752.37.844.68.09.927.32.20.2LABLAB
24349York Central Rachael Maskell79,55754.511.544.88.220.514.90.00.2LABLAB
26347Leeds Central and Headingley Alex Sobel70,55444.87.539.67.617.324.13.90.1LABLAB
29344Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh73,35952.412.342.69.416.716.62.30.2LABLAB
43330Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,17864.415.341.76.216.715.94.30.1LABLAB
52321Leeds South Hilary Benn75,95341.713.337.37.320.718.62.40.3LABLAB
53319Barnsley North Dan Jarvis78,26747.110.334.26.941.46.90.00.3LABReform
54319Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,45344.912.936.87.020.215.17.80.3LABLAB
61311Rotherham Sarah Champion75,92948.66.628.210.639.57.86.90.3LABReform
63310Leeds North West Katie White71,59269.518.239.712.320.59.20.00.2LABLAB
65307Barnsley South Stephanie Peacock75,85046.310.631.36.545.06.30.00.3LABReform
69304Hull North and Cottingham Diana Johnson75,28050.812.833.213.031.88.50.00.7LABLAB
81291Hull West and Haltemprice Emma Hardy73,25252.115.234.09.034.47.10.00.3LABReform
86287Bradford East Imran Hussain75,16749.513.031.45.628.07.314.60.2LABLAB
90283Sheffield South East Clive Betts74,19448.216.233.413.420.210.35.60.9LABLAB
94278Hull East Karl Turner70,65042.210.627.013.041.67.30.00.4LABReform
99274York Outer Luke Charters76,22867.021.637.411.322.57.00.00.2LABLAB
100273Leeds West and Pudsey Rachel Reeves70,06954.916.131.48.727.911.34.50.1LABLAB
100272Wakefield and Rothwell Simon Lightwood75,06754.216.231.58.531.78.13.90.2LABReform
105267Normanton and Hemsworth Jon Trickett75,64548.113.728.19.341.37.30.00.3LABReform
108264Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Yvette Cooper74,61848.214.228.19.341.56.60.00.3LABReform
108264Rawmarsh and Conisbrough John Healey69,13249.012.226.16.440.85.88.60.0LABReform
110263Leeds South West and Morley Mark Sewards71,85456.018.832.67.831.69.00.00.3LABLAB
111262Calder Valley Josh Fenton-Glynn77,36464.121.034.78.125.910.00.00.2LABLAB
111261Leeds East Richard Burgon76,20751.716.830.59.831.910.60.00.4LABReform
117255Penistone and Stocksbridge Marie Tidball70,77062.118.932.28.533.27.00.00.2LABReform
120253Doncaster North Ed Miliband69,75944.418.431.211.122.67.90.08.7LABLAB
132241Bradford West Naz Shah77,89747.615.927.95.023.29.818.00.2LABLAB
136237Shipley Anna Dixon74,13065.223.034.46.524.89.91.20.2LABLAB
147225Doncaster Central Sally Jameson74,67850.817.527.27.836.06.34.90.2LABReform
149223Spen Valley Kim Leadbeater72,64256.520.129.47.335.07.80.00.3LABReform
151221Huddersfield Harpreet Uppal77,79551.616.525.78.026.822.80.00.2LABReform
156217Colne Valley Paul Davies72,63863.624.032.37.326.49.80.00.2LABLAB
160212Bradford South Judith Cummins71,00246.516.123.99.035.810.21.73.3LABReform
173199Selby Keir Mather78,05563.123.629.39.230.57.30.00.1LABReform
175197Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Melanie Onn78,87546.419.925.19.040.25.60.00.3LABReform
178194Halifax Kate Alexandra Dearden77,51651.918.622.88.432.39.87.80.2LABReform
182190Rother Valley Jake Richards69,46059.925.327.76.434.16.30.00.2LABReform
186186Scarborough and Whitby Alison Hume74,55859.324.925.99.733.36.10.00.2LABReform
188184Dewsbury and Batley Iqbal Hussain Mohamed71,68553.115.115.34.626.85.133.10.0MINMIN
189183Ossett and Denby Dale Jade Botterill72,31260.725.825.89.531.86.90.00.2LABReform
199173Scunthorpe Nicholas Dakin74,26352.626.224.58.834.55.60.00.3LABReform
213159Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Lee Pitcher70,15455.827.323.58.335.25.50.00.2LABReform
214159Keighley and Ilkley Robbie Moore74,36762.132.428.66.924.07.90.00.3CONCON
220152Harrogate and Knaresborough Tom Gordon77,97066.822.616.830.025.15.20.00.2LIBLIB
231142Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith79,25167.430.423.111.527.27.60.00.2CONCON
237136Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart70,55963.630.623.010.230.55.60.00.2CONCON
267105Bridlington and the Wolds Charlie Dewhirst72,93158.930.218.29.536.75.20.00.3CONReform
27895Goole and Pocklington David Davis78,28763.533.320.59.130.86.20.00.2CONCON
29478Brigg and Immingham Martin Vickers74,29757.232.217.76.837.65.60.00.2CONReform
30469Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke74,33470.336.120.69.324.69.20.00.1CONCON
30667Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,48463.433.617.511.230.86.70.00.2CONCON
35122Richmond and Northallerton Rishi Sunak73,88865.740.016.310.027.75.40.40.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.