Electoral Pact Poll May 2022

This page first posted 23 May 2022

Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run an MRP poll on voting intention for Westminster in the presence of an electoral pact on behalf of the Constitution Society. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 16,000 respondents, carried out from 9 to 12 May 2022.

The poll asked England and Wales residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election and there was an electoral pact between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green party.

The question assumed that there was an electoral pact between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green party throughout England and Wales. It was also assumed that the pact did not apply in Scotland, and that Plaid Cymru were not included.

It was also assumed that the 573 seats in England and Wales were allocated between the pact parties, so that only one of the pact parties would stand a candidate in each seat. The method of seat selection was as follows:

• If a pact party was elected to the seat in 2019 or gained the seat in a by-election, then that party is selected for that seat
• Of the remaining seats, one seat in 16 (eg 6%) is selected for the Greens, based on the Greens' vote share in 2019. The selected seats must contain a fair and even variety of "winnability".
• Of the remaining seats, seats are selected for Labour and the Liberal Democrats depending on which party received more votes in 2019.

See Appendix 2 for the full list of seat selections.

This poll is very similar to the questions asked in a previous poll conducted in June 2021, although public opinion has changed markedly since then.

The headline table of predicted seats is

Pact Prediction: Labour majority of 136

Prediction based on opinion poll from 9-12 May 2022 to 24 Apr 2022, sampling 16,279 people.

These results show that an electoral pact between Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Greens could make a fundamental difference to the outcome of a general election.

Current opinion polls show that Labour might be largest party after a fresh general election, but there is no guarantee that it would have enough seats for an outright overall majority. The latest Electoral Calculus monthly poll of polls suggests that Labour would be short about 10 seats of a majority. The recent local election results also suggest that Labour's support is partial and patchy.

But if there were an electoral pact between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens in England and Wales, then the Conservatives could lose two-thirds of their seats and would be ejected from government. The pact parties would have a landslide victory, with a parliamentary majority of over 300 seats.

Within the pact, all three parties benefit from it. Labour nearly doubles its seat total. The Liberal Democrats go up to 71 seats, which would be the best Liberal performance since 1923. And the Greens could win 17 seats compared to their existing single seat. This could be perceived as win-win-win for these three parties.

The poll did not include Scotland and the calculations assumed no change to the 2019 election result there. In Wales, the poll suggests that Plaid might lose a couple of seats to the pact.

Questions

Respondents were asked two questions. The first was a general question of likelihood to vote.

Quotes

Professor Andrew Blick, Professor of Politics and Contemporary History, King's College London and Senior Adviser to the Constitution Society, said "There are various political and practical obstacles to bringing into being the pact we have modelled for this poll. However, the results suggest that – if the three parties are willing and able to overcome these blockages – it could enable them to remove the Conservatives from power. What happened next would depend on how far the three parties had coordinated in advance. But it could involve policy commitments that might include a permanent change in the electoral system, and possibly a lasting change in the political balance of power in the UK."

Technical Details

Find Out Now polled 16,279 adults in England and Wales online between 9-12 May 2022. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

Both Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

The data tables are available.

The Constitution Society

The Constitution Society is an independent, non-party educational foundation which works to promote informed debate about constitutional reform. Founded in 2009, its academic staff carry out in-depth research on constitutional topics.

Electoral Calculus

Electoral Calculus is a political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. Its pre-poll prediction for the 2019 general election was the most accurate published forecast. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.

Find Out Now

Find Out Now gathers poll responses from Pick My Postcode, a daily panel from 2.6 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, and at scale to deliver reliable results fast. More than 73 million responses have been received to Find Out Now's polls since it launched in November 2018. Find Out Now are Market Research Society Company Partners and a member of the British Polling Council.

Regression Polling

Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, local elections and the 2019 European elections.

These techniques work by spotting patterns between people's demographic characteristics and their likelihood to vote for various parties.

Appendix 1 – Seats predicted to change hands

Appendix 2 – Selected Seats

Seats selected for Labour (468 seats)

Aberavon, Aberconwy, Aldershot, Aldridge-Brownhills, Altrincham and Sale West, Alyn and Deeside, Amber Valley, Arfon, Ashfield, Ashford, Ashton under Lyne, Aylesbury, Banbury, Barking, Barnsley Central, Barnsley East, Barrow and Furness, Basildon and Billericay, Basildon South and East Thurrock, Basingstoke, Bassetlaw, Batley and Spen, Battersea, Beaconsfield, Beckenham, Bedford, Bedfordshire Mid, Bedfordshire North East, Bedfordshire South West, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Bethnal Green and Bow, Beverley and Holderness, Bexhill and Battle, Bexleyheath and Crayford, Birkenhead, Birmingham Edgbaston, Birmingham Erdington, Birmingham Hall Green, Birmingham Hodge Hill, Birmingham Ladywood, Birmingham Northfield, Birmingham Perry Barr, Birmingham Selly Oak, Birmingham Yardley, Bishop Auckland, Blackburn, Blackley and Broughton, Blackpool North and Cleveleys, Blackpool South, Blaenau Gwent, Blaydon, Blyth Valley, Bognor Regis and Littlehampton, Bolsover, Bolton North East, Bolton South East, Bolton West, Bootle, Boston and Skegness, Bosworth, Bracknell, Bradford East, Bradford South, Bradford West, Braintree, Brent Central, Brent North, Brentford and Isleworth, Brentwood and Ongar, Bridgend, Bridgwater and West Somerset, Brigg and Goole, Brighton Kemptown, Bristol East, Bristol North West, Bristol South, Bristol West, Broadland, Bromley and Chislehurst, Bromsgrove, Broxbourne, Broxtowe, Burnley, Burton, Bury North, Bury South, Caerphilly, Calder Valley, Camberwell and Peckham, Camborne and Redruth, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire North East, Cambridgeshire North West, Canterbury, Cardiff Central, Cardiff North, Cardiff South and Penarth, Cardiff West, Carlisle, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South, Castle Point, Charnwood, Chatham and Aylesford, Chester, City of, Chesterfield, Chingford and Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Chorley, Clacton, Cleethorpes, Clwyd South, Clwyd West, Colchester, Colne Valley, Congleton, Copeland, Corby, Cornwall South East, Coventry North East, Coventry North West, Coventry South, Crawley, Crewe and Nantwich, Croydon Central, Croydon North, Croydon South, Cynon Valley, Dagenham and Rainham, Darlington, Dartford, Daventry, Delyn, Denton and Reddish, Derby North, Derby South, Derbyshire Dales, Derbyshire Mid, Derbyshire North East, Derbyshire South, Devon Central, Devon East, Devon South West, Dewsbury, Don Valley, Doncaster Central, Doncaster North, Dorset South, Dover, Dudley North, Dudley South, Dulwich and West Norwood, Durham North, Durham North West, Durham, City of, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Ealing Central and Acton, Ealing North, Ealing Southall, Easington, East Ham, Eddisbury, Edmonton, Ellesmere Port and Neston, Elmet and Rothwell, Eltham, Enfield North, Enfield Southgate, Epping Forest, Erewash, Erith and Thamesmead, Exeter, Fareham, Faversham and Kent Mid, Feltham and Heston, Filton and Bradley Stoke, Folkestone and Hythe, Fylde, Gainsborough, Garston and Halewood, Gateshead, Gedling, Gillingham and Rainham, Gloucester, Gosport, Gower, Grantham and Stamford, Gravesham, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Greenwich and Woolwich, Hackney North and Stoke Newington, Hackney South and Shoreditch, Halesowen and Rowley Regis, Halifax, Haltemprice and Howden, Halton, Hammersmith, Hampstead and Kilburn, Harborough, Harlow, Harrow East, Harrow West, Hartlepool, Harwich and North Essex, Hastings and Rye, Havant, Hayes and Harlington, Hemel Hempstead, Hemsworth, Hendon, Hereford and South Herefordshire, Hertford and Stortford, Hertfordshire North East, Hertfordshire South West, Hertsmere, Hexham, Heywood and Middleton, High Peak, Holborn and St Pancras, Hornchurch and Upminster, Hornsey and Wood Green, Houghton and Sunderland South, Hove, Huddersfield, Hull East, Hull North, Hull West and Hessle, Huntingdon, Hyndburn, Ilford North, Ilford South, Ipswich, Islington North, Islington South and Finsbury, Islwyn, Jarrow, Keighley, Kensington, Kettering, Kingswood, Knowsley, Lancashire West, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Leeds Central, Leeds East, Leeds North East, Leeds North West, Leeds West, Leicester East, Leicester South, Leicester West, Leicestershire North West, Leicestershire South, Leigh, Lewisham Deptford, Lewisham East, Lewisham West and Penge, Leyton and Wanstead, Lichfield, Lincoln, Liverpool Riverside, Liverpool Walton, Liverpool Wavertree, Liverpool West Derby, Llanelli, Loughborough, Louth and Horncastle, Luton North, Luton South, Macclesfield, Maidstone and The Weald, Makerfield, Maldon, Manchester Central, Manchester Gorton, Manchester Withington, Mansfield, Meriden, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney, Middlesbrough, Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, Milton Keynes North, Milton Keynes South, Mitcham and Morden, Monmouth, Morecambe and Lunesdale, Morley and Outwood, Neath, New Forest East, Newark, Newcastle upon Tyne Central, Newcastle upon Tyne East, Newcastle upon Tyne North, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Newport East, Newport West, Norfolk Mid, Norfolk North West, Norfolk South, Norfolk South West, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, Northampton North, Northampton South, Northamptonshire South, Norwich North, Norwich South, Nottingham East, Nottingham North, Nottingham South, Nuneaton, Ogmore, Old Bexley and Sidcup, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Oldham West and Royton, Orpington, Oxford East, Pendle, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Penrith and The Border, Peterborough, Plymouth Moor View, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Pontypridd, Poole, Poplar and Limehouse, Portsmouth North, Portsmouth South, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Preston, Pudsey, Putney, Rayleigh and Wickford, Reading East, Reading West, Redcar, Redditch, Rhondda, Ribble South, Ribble Valley, Richmond, Rochdale, Rochester and Strood, Rochford and Southend East, Romford, Rossendale and Darwen, Rother Valley, Rotherham, Rugby, Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, Runnymede and Weybridge, Rushcliffe, Salford and Eccles, Scarborough and Whitby, Scunthorpe, Sedgefield, Sefton Central, Selby and Ainsty, Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough, Sheffield Central, Sheffield Hallam, Sheffield Heeley, Sheffield South East, Sherwood, Shipley, Shrewsbury and Atcham, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, Skipton and Ripon, Sleaford and North Hykeham, Slough, Solihull, Somerset North East, South Holland and The Deepings, South Shields, Southampton Itchen, Southampton Test, Southend West, Southport, Spelthorne, St Austell and Newquay, St Helens North, St Helens South and Whiston, Staffordshire Moorlands, Stalybridge and Hyde, Stevenage, Stockport, Stockton North, Stockton South, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stoke-on-Trent South, Stone, Stourbridge, Streatham, Stretford and Urmston, Suffolk Central and Ipswich North, Suffolk Coastal, Suffolk South, Suffolk West, Sunderland Central, Sutton Coldfield, Swansea East, Swansea West, Swindon North, Swindon South, Tamworth, Tatton, Telford, Thanet North, Thanet South, Thirsk and Malton, Thurrock, Tiverton and Honiton, Tooting, Torfaen, Tottenham, Tynemouth, Tyneside North, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Vale of Clwyd, Vauxhall, Wakefield, Wallasey, Walsall North, Walsall South, Walthamstow, Wansbeck, Warley, Warrington North, Warrington South, Warwick and Leamington, Warwickshire North, Washington and Sunderland West, Watford, Waveney, Weaver Vale, Wellingborough, Welwyn Hatfield, Wentworth and Dearne, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, West Ham, Westminster North, Weston-Super-Mare, Wigan, Wiltshire South West, Wirral South, Wirral West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South East, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester, Worcestershire Mid, Workington, Worsley and Eccles South, Worthing East and Shoreham, Worthing West, Wrekin, The, Wrexham, Wycombe, Wyre and Preston North, Wyre Forest, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Ynys Mon, York Central, York Outer, Yorkshire East

Seats selected for Liberal Democrats (81 seats)

Arundel and South Downs, Bath, Brecon and Radnorshire, Buckingham, Cambridgeshire South, Cambridgeshire South East, Carshalton and Wallington, Ceredigion, Cheadle, Chelmsford, Chelsea and Fulham, Cheltenham, Chesham and Amersham, Chichester, Chippenham, Christchurch, Cities of London and Westminster, Cornwall North, Cotswolds, The, Devizes, Devon North, Devon West and Torridge, Dorset Mid and Poole North, Dorset North, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Epsom and Ewell, Esher and Walton, Finchley and Golders Green, Guildford, Hampshire North East, Hampshire North West, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Hazel Grove, Henley, Hitchin and Harpenden, Horsham, Kenilworth and Southam, Kingston and Surbiton, Ludlow, Maidenhead, Meon Valley, Mole Valley, Montgomeryshire, Newbury, Newton Abbot, Norfolk North, Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Romsey and Southampton North, Saffron Walden, Sevenoaks, Shropshire North, St Albans, St Ives, Stratford-on-Avon, Surrey East, Surrey Heath, Surrey South West, Sussex Mid, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton Deane, Tewkesbury, Thornbury and Yate, Tonbridge and Malling, Torbay, Totnes, Tunbridge Wells, Twickenham, Wantage, Wealden, Wells, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Wiltshire North, Wimbledon, Winchester, Windsor, Witney, Woking, Wokingham, Yeovil

Seats selected for the Green Party (24 seats)

Bournemouth East, Bournemouth West, Brighton Pavilion, Bury St Edmunds, Cannock Chase, Dorset West, Forest of Dean, Hampshire East, Herefordshire North, Isle of Wight, Lewes, New Forest West, Reigate, Rutland and Melton, Salisbury, Somerset North, Somerton and Frome, Stafford, Staffordshire South, Stroud, Truro and Falmouth, Vale of Glamorgan, Witham, Worcestershire West