On behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, Electoral Calculus has conducted a hypothetical MRP poll asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservative party.
Fieldwork was conducted from 11-15 October 2024, with a sample size of over 6,000 people.
The headline voting intention is:
| Party | GE 2024 | If Badenoch leader | If Jenrick leader |
|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 24% | 22% | 23% |
| LAB | 35% | 29% | 28% |
| LIB | 13% | 12% | 12% |
| Reform | 15% | 21% | 20% |
| Green | 7% | 10% | 11% |
| Others | 14% | 6% | 6% |
Table 1: VI based on classic polling, excluding don't knows, refuseds, and those unlikely to vote.
There is only a small difference in support between the two candidates according to the poll. Under Jenrick the Conservatives would perform 1% better with the public than with Badenoch. The Labour lead over the Conservatives (before rounding) is 6.3% under Badenoch and 5.1% under Jenrick.
Under both candidates the Conservatives are slightly lower than their general election performance, though Labour is significantly lower and Reform UK have gained support.
We also used MRP analysis to translate public opinion into a prediction of every seat across Britain.
The seat predictions are:
| Party | GE 2024 | If Badenoch leader | If Jenrick leader |
|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 121 | 151 | 178 |
| LAB | 412 | 332 | 311 |
| LIB | 72 | 63 | 58 |
| Reform | 5 | 25 | 24 |
| Green | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| SNP | 9 | 48 | 48 |
| Plaid | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Others | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Table 2: MRP seat totals under both hypotheses
These figures suggest that the Conservatives would do better at an immediate general election under Jenrick compared with Badenoch. In both cases, Labour would lose a large number of seats, and the Conservatives (and Reform UK) would gain seats.
Under Badenoch, the Conservatives are predicted to gain about 30 seats, and Labour would have a parliamentary majority of 14 seats.
Under Jenrick, the Conservatives could gain over 65 seats, and Labour would be 14 seats short of an overall majority in the Commons.
The MRP also suggests that the SNP have regained ground from Labour in Scotland. But the Scottish sub-sample is relatively small (619 respondents), so this result is not definitive.
The poll used MRP methodology to predict every seat.
No tactical voting adjustments were performed, but seats which were won by independent candidates have been assumed to have constant support for those candidates.
In accordance with existing Electoral Calculus methodology, the regression algorithm was given a number of variates based on the respondents' locations, in addition to the variates based on the respondents' demographics. These include:
Not all of these variates will be used by the algorithm, as it only uses variates which are statistically significant in explaining voting intention. But these locality-based variates can provide more geographic precision in the predictions.
Around 26% of people who voted Conservative in 2024 didn't know or wouldn't say how they planned to vote this time. That's a bit higher than Labour voters (19%).
Our treatment of these voters is to assume that they will vote in the same way as other Conservatives who did express an opinion. We do not assume that they will all not vote.
Three questions were asked
Q1. We know that many people in your area didn't vote in the last general election. How likely do you think you are to vote at the next general election on a scale from 0 to 10? (10 - certain to vote, 0 - certain not to vote)
Q2. Assuming Kemi Badenoch was elected leader of the Conservative party, for which party would you vote at the next general election?
Q3. Assuming Robert Jenrick was elected leader of the Conservative party, for which party would you vote at the next general election?
In June 2019, Electoral Calculus performed a similar analysis on the Conservative leadership campaign in conjunction with Savanta:ComRes and the Daily Telegraph. That poll also asked the hypothetical question of how people would vote if various of the candidates were chosen as leader.
That gave the result that the Conservatives would win a big majority if Boris Johnson were chosen as leader. This finding was dismissed by many at the time, although it turned out to be broadly correct as the Conservatives won a big majority under Johnson at the subsequent election six months later.
Find Out Now polled 6,289 GB adults online between 11-15 October 2024. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Data tables are for this poll are available here.
Electoral Calculus is a pollster and political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. It has successfully predicted UK general elections since 2010. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules, and is a company partner of the Market Research Society.
Find Out Now is a polling and market research panel with 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, with over 100,000 daily responses allowing the delivery of same-day nationally representative sampling.
Find Out Now are a member of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules, and are a company partner of the Market Research Society.
Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, local elections and elections abroad.
These techniques work by spotting patterns between people's demographic characteristics and their likelihood to vote for various parties.