On behalf of the Daily Telegraph, Electoral Calculus has conducted a new MRP poll of voting intention in the local elections due on 1 May 2025. Polling using MRP, which stands for Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification, is a relatively recent innovation in polling science which has been used to successfully predict the last three British general elections, and gives the estimated result in each local authority.
Polling was conducted both in those local authorities where the elections are going ahead, and also in those local authorities where elections were due to take place this year but the elections have been delayed.
Fieldwork was conducted from 1-10 March 2025, with a sample size of over 5,400 people.
The poll puts Reform UK equal with the Conservatives on 25pc of the vote. Labour on 18pc is only just ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 17pc. In terms of the number of councillors elected, Reform and the Conservatives are expected to win about 700 each, with the Lib Dems winning around 400 and Labour around 300.
The table below gives the prediction in numerical form:
| Party | LE 2021 | Predicted Election Result | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | Cllrs | MRP Votes | MRP Cllrs | |
| CON | 46% | 1,420 | 25% | 688 |
| LAB | 22% | 341 | 18% | 285 |
| LIB | 15% | 274 | 17% | 401 |
| Reform | 0% | 0 | 25% | 697 |
| Green | 8% | 47 | 7% | 44 |
| OTH | 9% | 165 | 8% | 132 |
The 2021 Local Election results are as if they had been run under the new local authority ward boundaries.
Our prediction is that the Conservatives will lose a large amount of support and councillors to the Reform UK party. The Liberal Democrats are also expected to make some gains, while Labour might lose ground a little. The Green party and independent candidates are more difficult to predict accurately, so their predictions are subject to a greater amount of uncertainty.
The headline prediction can be broken down into those authorities where the elections are going ahead as scheduled, and those where the elections are delayed.
| Party | Authorities With Elections | Authorities With Delays | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pred Votes | Pred Cllrs | Pred Votes | Pred Cllrs | |
| CON | 26% | 548 | 23% | 140 |
| LAB | 20% | 252 | 14% | 33 |
| LIB | 16% | 270 | 20% | 131 |
| Reform | 25% | 474 | 25% | 223 |
| Green | 6% | 27 | 8% | 17 |
| OTH | 7% | 77 | 10% | 55 |
The Conservatives are ahead of Reform UK in the authorities where elections are going ahead, both in terms of votes and elected councillors. So the Conservatives will probably win more seats than Reform in reality.
But Reform UK are ahead of the Conservatives in the authorities where the elections are delayed.
The next table shows the predicted control for each authority up for election (or with delayed elections).
| Authority | Predicted Control | Current Control | Delay Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buckinghamshire | CON | CON | On Time |
| Cambridgeshire | LIB largest party | LIB/LAB/Indep | On Time |
| Cornwall | LIB largest party | CON min | On Time |
| Derbyshire | Reform | CON | On Time |
| Devon | CON largest party | CON | On Time |
| Doncaster | Reform | LAB | On Time |
| Durham | Reform | Indep/CON/LIB | On Time |
| Gloucestershire | LIB largest party | CON min | On Time |
| Hertfordshire | CON largest party | CON | On Time |
| Kent | Reform | CON | On Time |
| Lancashire | Reform largest party | CON | On Time |
| Leicestershire | CON | CON | On Time |
| Lincolnshire | CON largest party | CON | On Time |
| North Northamptonshire | CON largest party | CON | On Time |
| Northumberland | Reform largest party | CON min | On Time |
| Nottinghamshire | Reform largest party | CON min | On Time |
| Oxfordshire | LIB largest party | LIB/LAB/Green | On Time |
| Shropshire | LIB largest party | CON | On Time |
| Staffordshire | Reform largest party | CON | On Time |
| Warwickshire | CON largest party | CON | On Time |
| West Northamptonshire | CON largest party | CON | On Time |
| Wiltshire | CON | CON | On Time |
| Worcestershire | CON largest party | CON | On Time |
| East Sussex | LIB largest party | CON min | Delay |
| Essex | Reform largest party | CON | Delay |
| Hampshire | CON largest party | CON | Delay |
| Isle of Wight | OTH largest party | Indep/Green | Delay |
| Norfolk | Reform largest party | CON | Delay |
| Suffolk | Reform | CON | Delay |
| Surrey | LIB largest party | CON | Delay |
| Thurrock | Reform | LAB | Delay |
| West Sussex | LIB largest party | CON | Delay |
The Conservatives are set to lose control of nine councils with elections. But they might have lost another six councils (East Sussex, Essex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Surrey, West Sussex) had elections in those authorities not been delayed.
Reform are set to be the largest party in eights council with elections, and might have gained a further four councils where elections are delayed.
The poll also asked voters if they approve or disapprove of local elections being delayed in some areas this year. The results are shown in the table below.
| Response | All Voters | CON voters | LAB voters | Reform voters | Voters with elections | Voters with Delays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly disapprove | 19% | 31% | 10% | 50% | 17% | 24% |
| Disapprove | 15% | 19% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 17% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 35% | 36% | 44% | 22% | 36% | 32% |
| Approve | 3% | 2% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| Strongly approve | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Don't know | 27% | 11% | 22% | 10% | 30% | 22% |
| Net disapprove | 34% | 50% | 24% | 66% | 30% | 41% |
| Net approve | 4% | 3% | 10% | 2% | 4% | 4% |
About one third of voters disapprove of the election delays, and only one voter in twenty-five approves. Nearly two-thirds of voters are either neutral or undecided. Reform and Conservative voters are more opposed, as are those who live in the areas where elections are delayed.
Following polling errors in 2024, Electoral Calculus took part in investigations into possible causes, co-ordinated by the British Polling Council. Our findings are available here. In summary,
To incorporate these findings into our post-election polling, we have made two assumptions about those who answer "don't know" to either the turnout or voting intention questions.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said "Our local election poll shows that the Conservatives are likely to make significant losses compared with their strong performance back in 2021. Reform UK look like the main gainers as they could take control of eight councils to gain their first real power-base in local government. But the large-scale delays to elections, affecting over five and a half million voters, will soften the scale of Conservative losses and reduce Reform's gains."
Electoral Calculus polled 5,421 GB adults online between 1-10 March 2025, living in areas which were scheduled to have local elections this year. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected council results.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Data tables are available here, including full list of councils.
Electoral Calculus is a pollster and political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. It has been correctly predicting UK elections since 1997. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, local elections and the 2019 European elections.