On behalf of PLMR, Electoral Calculus has conducted a new MRP poll. Polling using MRP, which stands for Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification, is a relatively recent innovation in polling science which have been used to successfully predict the last three British general elections, and gives the estimated result in each Westminster constituency.
Fieldwork was conducted from 22-29 January 2025, with a sample size of over 5,700 people.
More details at the PLMR website.
The poll puts Reform UK just 1 percent ahead of both Labour and Conservatives who are tied in second place. In terms of the number of seats won, the Conservatives are predicted to win three more seats than Reform, and four seats more than Labour.
The table below gives the prediction in numerical form:
| Party | GE 2024 | Predicted Election Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | Seats | MRP Votes | MRP Seats | |||
| CON | 24% | 121 | 23% | 178 | ||
| LAB | 35% | 412 | 23% | 174 | ||
| LIB | 13% | 72 | 11% | 57 | ||
| Reform | 15% | 5 | 24% | 175 | ||
| Green | 7% | 4 | 8% | 4 | ||
| SNP | 3% | 9 | 3% | 37 | ||
| Plaid | 1% | 4 | 1% | 2 | ||
| MIN | 3% | 5 | 6% | 5 | ||
Our prediction is for a near three-way tie. The Conservatives, Labour and Reform UK would all win nearly the same number of seats. The Conservatives might be slightly ahead with Reform in second place, but all other orderings are about as likely to happen.
The most likely political outcome would be a Conservative-Reform coalition, but other configurations are possible.
Seat prediction map
The poll also asked voters if they think that their personal finances will get better or worse over the coming year compared with last year.
| Response | All Voters | CON voters | LAB voters | Reform voters | LIB voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Much better | 2% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 4% |
| A bit better | 10% | 5% | 17% | 8% | 15% |
| About the same | 24% | 22% | 38% | 15% | 33% |
| A bit worse | 26% | 39% | 20% | 33% | 27% |
| Much worse | 23% | 29% | 11% | 38% | 14% |
| Don't know | 15% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 8% |
| Net better | 12% | 7% | 21% | 8% | 19% |
| Net worse | 49% | 68% | 32% | 71% | 41% |
About half of voters think their finances will get worse, and only one voter in eight thinks they will get better. Labour and Lib Dem voters are more optimistic than Conservative and Reform voters.
Following polling errors in 2024, Electoral Calculus took part in investigations into possible causes, co-ordinated by the British Polling Council. Our findings are available here. In summary,
To incorporate these findings into our post-election polling, we have made two assumptions about those who answer "don't know" to either the turnout or voting intention questions.
Kevin Craig, founder of PLMR, who commissioned the poll said: "Of course, there is a long, long way to go until the next election. History is littered with British Governments who were unpopular in the initial years and who then turned it around. Labour knows very well what it needs to deliver in order to win again.
"This poll shows multiple challenges for the two established parties as Reform UK continues to show momentum and is picking up support from disillusioned Labour and Conservative voters in economically struggling areas.
"A three-way split of the vote is practically unheard of in British politics and points to shifts in the political make-up of the United Kingdom. The Conservative Party will be particularly concerned that they are not able to move ahead of Labour in the polls as the official Opposition.
"If the Labour Government succeeds in its mission to grow the economy and inject optimism into the economic fortunes of households, I have no doubt they can turn things around - especially if the vote on the right remains so divided.".
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said "Our survey shows an unprecedented three-way tie at the top of British politics. If there were a general election tomorrow, any of the three parties could come out on top but would be unlikely to have an overall majority. This represents a massive change in public opinion since the general election just seven months ago."
Find Out Now polled 5,743 GB adults online between 22-29 January 2025. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Data tables are available here, including full list of seats.
PLMR is an award-winning integrated communications agency founded in 2006, ranked in the Top 50 PR Firms in the UK by PR Week. Our purpose is to make a positive and sustainable difference for our clients, our people and society. Our services include PR, strategic communications, corporate communications, crisis communications and reputation management, public affairs, film and digital, social media, design, media training and more. We are proud to work with organisations across a range of sectors such as technology, health and social care, education and training, energy and sustainability, the built environment and the third sector.
Electoral Calculus is a pollster and political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. Its pre-poll prediction for the 2019 general election was the most accurate published forecast. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Find Out Now is a polling and market research panel with 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, with over 100,000 daily responses allowing the delivery of same-day nationally representative sampling.
Find Out Now are members of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society, and abide by their rules.
Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, local elections and the 2019 European elections.