Belfast South and Mid Down: Seat Details

Belfast South and Mid Down: Overview

Prediction: SDLP hold

MP at 2024:Claire Hanna  (SDLP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:74,749
Turnout:58.2%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
SDLP21,34549.1%49.0%
Alliance8,83920.3%20.3%
DUP6,85915.8%15.8%
UUP2,6536.1%6.1%
OTH2,2185.1%5.2%
Green1,5773.6%3.6%
SDLP Majority12,50628.8%28.7%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
SDLP
98%
Alliance
2%
DUP
1%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Belfast South and Mid Down : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Belfast South and Mid Down constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2024SDLPSFLAB
Party Winner 2019SDLPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %31%44%52%
British Identity25%32%52%
Average Age45.049.349.5
Good Education68%48%49%
Employed57%56%58%
Homeowner59%69%63%
Car owner81%87%77%
Married37%46%45%
Ethnic White89%97%83%
Christian68%81%50%
ABC1 Class72%51%55%
Average House Price£200,443£148,402£308,942
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Belfast South and Mid Down: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast South and Mid Down

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast South and Mid Down.

Belfast South and Mid DownActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
BelfastBelvoir3,751DUPDUP
BelfastBlackstaff4,093SDLPDUP
BelfastCentral4,932SDLPSDLP
BelfastFinaghy3,625SDLPSDLP
BelfastMalone3,877SDLPSDLP
BelfastMusgrave3,822SDLPSDLP
BelfastOrmeau4,078SDLPSDLP
BelfastRavenhill3,403SDLPSDLP
BelfastRosetta4,117SDLPSDLP
BelfastStranmillis4,500SDLPSDLP
BelfastUpper Malone3,800SDLPSDLP
BelfastWindsor4,612SDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,622SDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill2,743SDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East2,825SDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,596SDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,410AllianceAlliance
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally2,510SDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken2,763SDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,365DUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda2,173SDLPSDLP
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield3,132AllianceAlliance
 Total74,749SDLPSDLP

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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