CURRENT PREDICTION
UK General Election Prediction
Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.
Full details of our current prediction.| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 24.4% | 121 | 26.9% | 207 |
| LAB | 34.7% | 412 | 27.6% | 311 |
| LIB | 12.6% | 72 | 12.0% | 68 |
| Reform | 14.7% | 5 | 19.5% | 12 |
| Green | 6.9% | 4 | 8.2% | 4 |
| SNP | 2.6% | 9 | 2.6% | 16 |
| PlaidC | 0.7% | 4 | 0.7% | 3 |
POLL ERROR
Polling errors in 2024
An analysis of polls for the 2024 election looks at possible causes of the polling error, and identifies a possible combination of two factors as potentially interesting.
POLL
Child Social Media Poll November 2024
A poll for the Daily Telegraph on children's access to social media and smartphones shows the public would like the social media age limit raised to 16, and for smartphones to be banned from schools.
MRP POLL
Con Leaders MRP Poll October 2024
A poll for the Jenrick campaign, asks voters how they would vote if Badenoch or Jenrick respectively were chosen as Conservative leader.
COMMENTARY
Commentary October 2024
Prof Richard Rose looks at why the new Tory leader will be pulled in two directions.
ELECTION 2024
Election Trends and Insights
We look at the election results, trends and insights to see how secure Labour's victory is, what impact Reform really had, and whether politics and religion are now intertwined.
ELECTION 2024
General Election 2024
A summary of the results, and a first look at our predictions to see how they did.
COMMENTARY
Commentary 26 June 2024
Prof Richard Rose says that former Tory voters are not returning home.
POLLING
A Voter's Guide to MRP
Our helpful introduction to MRP polling, how it works, and whether Labour will really win nearly 500 seats.
GENERAL ELECTION 2024
Tactical Voting
An in-depth look at tactical voting from our new MRP poll shows that it might cost Labour more seats than the Conservatives.
POLLING ANALYSIS
Low Cost MRP Regression
Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.
More detailsCOMMENTARY
Commentary December 2024
Prof Richard Rose looks why losing a majority needn't mean losing office.
COMMENTARY
Commentary November 2024
Prof Richard Rose looks at the good news and the bad news for Labour.
COMMENTARY
Commentary September 2024
Prof Richard Rose looks at why Labour's power rests on divided opposition.
COMMENTARY
Commentary 12 July 2024
Prof Richard Rose says that the electoral system delivered one hit and one miss last week.
POLLING
Conservative Defectors in their own words
Our new poll, with Find Out Now, asks people who voted Conservative in 2019, but will not vote Conservative this time, to give their reasons in their own words.
PSEPHOLOGY
Voter Migration since 2019
See graphically how voters are moving between the parties, or not voting at all.
LIVE UPDATES
Recent national opinion polls
Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.
POLITICAL MAPS
Data Map
Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.
All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.
HISTORICAL DATA
A unique electoral data archive from 1955
Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.