LOCAL ELECTIONS

Approximate Predictions for Local Elections

We have made early, if approximate, predictions for the authorities which were originally scheduled to have elections in May.

The Conservatives would have expected to suffer multiple losses, with the Lib Dems and Reform UK as the main beneficiaries.

POLL

Tariff Poll February 2025

A new poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now shows Britons are generally favourable towards international trade, but the country is split between free-traders, protectionists and EU-rejoiners.

LOCAL ELECTIONS

Delays to Local Elections

Although 17 million people were scheduled to vote in local elections this May, over half of them may be frustrated.

Voters may see their chance to elect working councillors delayed by three years due to government plans to re-organise councils, in the biggest delay to democracy in decades.

ANALYSIS

Can Reform Win?

With both major parties doing badly, there is a unique opportunity for Reform UK to try to overtake them. But how many votes do Reform actually need to win at Westminster?

POLL ERROR

Polling errors in 2024

An analysis of polls for the 2024 election looks at possible causes of the polling error, and identifies a possible combination of two factors as potentially interesting.

POLLING

A Voter's Guide to MRP

Our helpful introduction to MRP polling, how it works, and whether Labour will really win nearly 500 seats.

COMMENTARY

Commentary end-December 2024

Prof Richard Rose says that Labour's vote is down but its hold on office is safe for now.

COMMENTARY

Commentary mid-December 2024

Prof Richard Rose says that Coming Third Breaks the Tie.
Posted: 13 December 2024

COMMENTARY

Commentary December 2024

Prof Richard Rose looks why losing a majority needn't mean losing office.

POLLING ANALYSIS

Low Cost MRP Regression

Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.

MRP POLL

MRP Poll February 2025

A new MRP poll for PLMR shows a three-way tie in votes and seats between Labour, Conservatives and Reform UK.

COMMENTARY

Commentary February 2025

Prof Richard Rose says that Reform has cleared the first hurdle in a marathon race.

POLL

National Interests Poll

A new poll for the Daily Express by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now shows that only 5pc of voters think that Labour usually puts the national interest first.

Voters want to keep the Chagos Islands, but are happy to return the Elgin Marbles.

PSEPHOLOGY DATA

New data release

With the new year, we have updated some of our key datasets, including: estimates of the general election result by ward and output area; new Scottish census data; and new council ward boundaries for 2025.

POLLING

Conservative Defectors in their own words

Our new poll, with Find Out Now, asks people who voted Conservative in 2019, but will not vote Conservative this time, to give their reasons in their own words.

PSEPHOLOGY

Voter Migration since 2019

See graphically how voters are moving between the parties, or not voting at all.

LIVE UPDATES

Recent national opinion polls

Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.

POLITICAL MAPS

Data Map

Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.

All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.

HISTORICAL DATA

A unique electoral data archive from 1955

Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.