CURRENT PREDICTION

UK General Election Prediction

Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.

Full details of our current prediction.
Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 24.4%121 21.9%142
LAB 34.7%412 24.7%178
LIB 12.6%72 13.7%66
Reform 14.7%5 25.8%192
Green 6.9%4 8.3%4
SNP 2.6%9 3.0%43
PlaidC 0.7%4 0.7%2

LOCAL ELECTION POLL

Predicted Local Election Results 2025

Local Election MRP Poll

An Electoral Calculus MRP poll for the Daily Telegraph on the likely results of the local elections in May, including in those local authorities where elections are delayed.

POLL

CSAV Container Ship Cauquenes at Valparaiso, Credit:Wikimedia/Gordon Leggett

Tariff Poll February 2025

A new poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now shows Britons are generally favourable towards international trade, but the country is split between free-traders, protectionists and EU-rejoiners.

LOCAL ELECTIONS

Democratic Delays Comparison

Delays to Local Elections

Although 17 million people were scheduled to vote in local elections this May, over half of them may be frustrated.

Voters may see their chance to elect working councillors delayed by three years due to government plans to re-organise councils, in the biggest delay to democracy in decades.

ANALYSIS

Reform Seats won vs national vote share

Can Reform Win?

With both major parties doing badly, there is a unique opportunity for Reform UK to try to overtake them. But how many votes do Reform actually need to win at Westminster?

POLL ERROR

Classic Vote Shares, Raw and Adjusted

Polling errors in 2024

An analysis of polls for the 2024 election looks at possible causes of the polling error, and identifies a possible combination of two factors as potentially interesting.

POLLING

House of Commons 2019

A Voter's Guide to MRP

Our helpful introduction to MRP polling, how it works, and whether Labour will really win nearly 500 seats.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes end-December 2024

Commentary end-December 2024

Prof Richard Rose says that Labour's vote is down but its hold on office is safe for now.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes mid-December 2024

Commentary mid-December 2024

Prof Richard Rose says that Coming Third Breaks the Tie.
Posted: 13 December 2024

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes December 2024

Commentary December 2024

Prof Richard Rose looks why losing a majority needn't mean losing office.

POLLING ANALYSIS

Low Cost MRP Regression

Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.

More details

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes March 2025

Commentary March 2025

Prof Richard Rose says that the first-past-the-post system begins to deliver for Reform.

MRP POLL

GB Seat Prediction Map February 2025

MRP Poll February 2025

A new MRP poll for PLMR shows a three-way tie in votes and seats between Labour, Conservatives and Reform UK.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes February 2025

Commentary February 2025

Prof Richard Rose says that Reform has cleared the first hurdle in a marathon race.

POLL

Chagos Archipelago, Credit:Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit, NASA Johnson Space Center

National Interests Poll

A new poll for the Daily Express by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now shows that only 5pc of voters think that Labour usually puts the national interest first.

Voters want to keep the Chagos Islands, but are happy to return the Elgin Marbles.

PSEPHOLOGY DATA

GE 2024 winner by ward

New data release

With the new year, we have updated some of our key datasets, including: estimates of the general election result by ward and output area; new Scottish census data; and new council ward boundaries for 2025.

POLLING

Word Cloud from Conservative Defectors

Conservative Defectors in their own words

Our new poll, with Find Out Now, asks people who voted Conservative in 2019, but will not vote Conservative this time, to give their reasons in their own words.

PSEPHOLOGY

Voter Migration 2019-Feb 2024 (detail)

Voter Migration since 2019

See graphically how voters are moving between the parties, or not voting at all.

LIVE UPDATES

Recent national opinion polls

Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.

POLITICAL MAPS

Norwich South: localities by EU Ref

Data Map

Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.

All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.

HISTORICAL DATA

A unique electoral data archive from 1955

Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.

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