General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform majority 44

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	17.8%	16	35	160
LAB	34.7%	412	22.5%	55	138	287
LIB	12.6%	72	14.5%	31	67	102
Reform	14.7%	5	30.0%	161	347	440
Green	6.9%	4	8.9%	3	4	25
SNP	2.6%	9	2.6%	10	32	43
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.8%	2	4	8
Other	3.5%	5	2.8%	0	5	8
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 04 Jul 2025 to 25 Jul 2025, sampling 15,320 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform majority

40%

Reform minority

33%

Lab minority

15%

No overall control

Con minority

Labour majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

82%

Labour

17%

Conservative

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-July 2025

Posted 31 July 2025

Reform's lead over Labour is now 8pc, up by 1pc from last month. That would translate into a Reform government with a working majority if there were an immediate general election.