General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour short 82 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	19.7%	38	132	252
LAB	34.7%	412	23.9%	88	244	357
LIB	12.6%	72	10.8%	38	70	84
Reform	14.7%	5	23.4%	53	127	289
Green	6.9%	4	11.4%	7	10	71
SNP	2.6%	9	2.9%	17	44	47
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.7%	2	3	11
Other	3.5%	5	7.3%	0	2	7
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 07 Jul 2026 to 27 Jul 2026, sampling 13,321 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Lab minority

49%

Reform minority

16%

Con minority

11%

Labour majority

10%

No overall control

10%

Reform majority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Labour

58%

Reform

25%

Conservative

16%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-July 2026

Posted 30 July 2026

A definite 'Burnham bounce' can be seen in the polling numbers this month. Labour have overturned Reform's lead, which was 6pc last month, to edge just a fraction ahead. When translated into seats, this puts Labour ahead of the Conservative by over 100 seats, and pushes Reform into third place.

Labour would be short of an overall majority, but is close to having a workable coalition with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.