General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour short 16 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	24.5%	70	176	285
LAB	34.7%	412	26.7%	128	310	378
LIB	12.6%	72	11.8%	41	71	86
Reform	14.7%	5	21.9%	23	36	221
Green	6.9%	4	8.5%	3	4	18
SNP	2.6%	9	2.7%	8	20	41
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.7%	2	4	7
Other	3.5%	5	3.2%	1	11	15
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 06 Dec 2024 to 20 Dec 2024, sampling 8,205 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Lab minority

45%

Labour majority

20%

No overall control

14%

Con minority

12%

Reform minority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Labour

73%

Conservative

18%

Reform

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-December 2024

Posted 2 January 2025

There was only light polling in December, but Labour now have a lead of 2pc over the Conservatives. And the Conservatives are about 3pc ahead of Reform UK. If there were an election now, Labour would be just short of an overall majority.