General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour short 117 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	22.5%	56	156	273
LAB	34.7%	412	26.0%	99	209	352
LIB	12.6%	72	12.4%	26	62	79
Reform	14.7%	5	24.3%	56	151	307
Green	6.9%	4	8.9%	2	4	21
SNP	2.6%	9	3.2%	15	43	47
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.7%	1	2	7
Other	3.5%	5	1.8%	0	5	7
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 10 Jan 2025 to 29 Jan 2025, sampling 17,901 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Lab minority

28%

Reform minority

25%

Con minority

19%

No overall control

14%

Labour majority

Reform majority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Labour

51%

Reform

29%

Conservative

19%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-January 2024

Posted 10 February 2025

January polling shows Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives in our monthly poll-of-polls for the first time. Reform are two points ahead of the Conservatives, and two points behind Labour, and in what is close to a three-way tie in terms of vote share. Using our new MRP polling, Labour is still the largest, but the Conservatives and Reform also win about 150 seats each. Parliament would be quite hung, and it would be difficult to put together a simple and plausible coalition which had a majority.