General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform short 15 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	17.0%	10	40	173
LAB	34.7%	412	21.0%	52	143	284
LIB	12.6%	72	13.8%	30	71	96
Reform	14.7%	5	30.1%	167	311	417
Green	6.9%	4	9.5%	4	6	39
SNP	2.6%	9	3.0%	16	44	47
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.7%	2	4	10
Other	3.5%	5	4.8%	4	13	14
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 28 Aug 2025 to 26 Sep 2025, sampling 12,571 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform majority

34%

Reform minority

32%

Lab minority

15%

No overall control

14%

Con minority

Labour majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

81%

Labour

16%

Conservative

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-September 2025

Posted 30 September 2025

Although party support remained fairly constant in September, our prediction has been updated to reflect new information about tactical voting. This shows that many voters will vote tactically both for left-right partisan reasons, and also to keep Reform out. This costs Reform several dozen seats and deprives them of an overall parliamentary majority.

On our figures, a possible scenario would be a Reform-Conservative government, with Reform as the largest party.