General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform short 78 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	18.1%	21	112	230
LAB	34.7%	412	18.7%	18	78	239
LIB	12.6%	72	12.0%	30	61	88
Reform	14.7%	5	26.8%	106	248	371
Green	6.9%	4	15.8%	28	66	157
SNP	2.6%	9	3.2%	21	46	49
PlaidC	0.7%	4	1.4%	5	15	23
Other	3.5%	5	4.3%	0	6	9
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Apr 2026 to 24 Apr 2026, sampling 15,213 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority

36%

Lab minority

22%

Reform majority

14%

No overall control

11%

Con minority

10%

Green minority

LibDem minority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

70%

Conservative

15%

Labour

13%

Green

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-April 2026

Posted 1 May 2026

Despite Westminster's pre-occupation with the Mandelson affair, the British public remained unmoved in April. In terms of voting intention, there were no notable changes over the month. Reform are still set to be the largest party, but well short of an overall majority. Labour is 8pc behind Reform in terms of votes, and still forecast to win fewer than a hundred seats.