General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour short 127 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	23.3%	52	156	300
LAB	34.7%	412	24.6%	91	199	341
LIB	12.6%	72	13.1%	23	54	82
Reform	14.7%	5	24.0%	58	167	316
Green	6.9%	4	9.1%	2	4	23
SNP	2.6%	9	2.9%	15	43	46
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.8%	2	4	8
Other	3.5%	5	2.4%	0	5	8
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 06 Mar 2025 to 28 Mar 2025, sampling 16,732 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority

25%

Lab minority

24%

Con minority

21%

No overall control

14%

Labour majority

Reform majority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Labour

45%

Reform

30%

Conservative

24%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-March 2025

Posted 1 April 2025

This month, Reform have lost a little ground to Labour, possibly after the spat which saw the suspension of MP Rupert Lowe. Labour is now 1pc ahead of Reform, with the Conservatives only one point further behind.

In terms of seats, we calculate that the three big parties would be fairly equal, but Labour would (just) be the largest party. However, a Reform-Conservative coalition could be the most likely option in practice, albeit with a minimal majority.

But the situation is very fluid, and small swings will have big effects. Don't underestimate the power of a single percentage point. Parties can gain or lose around 30 seats just for a 1pc swing up or down. For example, if Reform gained 2pc more support from Labour they would gain another 56 seats.