General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform short 119 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	19.5%	27	128	257
LAB	34.7%	412	20.5%	32	131	281
LIB	12.6%	72	12.2%	29	60	86
Reform	14.7%	5	26.5%	94	207	360
Green	6.9%	4	12.5%	16	40	97
SNP	2.6%	9	3.0%	19	44	48
PlaidC	0.7%	4	1.4%	5	15	23
Other	3.5%	5	4.7%	0	7	8
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Jun 2026 to 26 Jun 2026, sampling 16,020 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority

34%

Lab minority

28%

Con minority

14%

Reform majority

11%

No overall control

Conservative majority

Labour majority

Green minority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

59%

Labour

21%

Conservative

19%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-June 2026

Posted 1 July 2026

Most of the polling in June was conducted before Sir Keir Starmer announced his intention on 22 June to resign as Prime Minister. Despite that, Labour and the Conservatives are up slightly this month, and the Greens are down a little. If there were an election now, Reform would be the largest party but well short of an overall majority. Reform and the Conservatives together would have a slim majority. But with the current high level of electoral volatility, this may easily change quickly.