General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform short 134 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	21.9%	51	142	262
LAB	34.7%	412	24.7%	86	178	327
LIB	12.6%	72	13.7%	30	66	89
Reform	14.7%	5	25.8%	73	192	341
Green	6.9%	4	8.3%	2	4	19
SNP	2.6%	9	3.0%	15	43	46
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.7%	1	2	7
Other	3.5%	5	1.8%	0	5	8
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 19 Feb 2025 to 24 Feb 2025, sampling 10,510 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority

33%

Lab minority

23%

Con minority

17%

No overall control

13%

Reform majority

Labour majority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

42%

Labour

41%

Conservative

17%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-February 2025

Posted 28 February 2025

So far this year, Reform have overtaken the Conservatives. Polling in February now shows that Reform have also overtaken Labour to be the most popular party in the country. Reform are about one point ahead of Labour, and five points ahead of the Conservatives.

If there were an imminent general election, then Reform would win the most seats, but Parliament would be hung three-ways between the big three parties. Any two parties could combine to form a government, and there would be a clear chance of Nigel Farage being Prime Minister with support from either the Conservatives or Labour.