General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour short 60 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	19.8%	35	119	247
LAB	34.7%	412	25.4%	104	266	380
LIB	12.6%	72	10.1%	35	69	78
Reform	14.7%	5	23.8%	52	132	293
Green	6.9%	4	10.3%	5	6	56
SNP	2.6%	9	2.7%	12	35	43
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.6%	1	3	8
Other	3.5%	5	7.2%	0	2	6
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 30 Jul 2026 to 28 Aug 2026, sampling 19,780 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Lab minority

46%

Reform minority

17%

Labour majority

16%

Con minority

No overall control

Reform majority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Labour

63%

Reform

24%

Conservative

12%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-August 2026

Posted 1 September 2026

The Burnham bounce has continued, with Labour gaining a point or so from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, though Reform has also strengthened very slightly.

Labour would be short of an overall majority, but could have a workable coalition with the Liberal Democrats.